Greatest Threat

Ladbrokes prices:

Kauto Star 2.75
Denman 6.00
Exotic Dancer 9.00
My Way De Solzen 11.00
Aces Four 17.00
Star De Mohaison 21.00
In Compliance 26.00
Kicking King 26.00
Neptune Collonges 26.00
Trabolgan 26.00
The Listener 34.00
Another Promise 41.00
State Of Play 41.00
Turpin Green 41.00
Cane Brake 51.00
Kingscliff 51.00
Offshore Account 51.00
 
EXOTIC DANCER's form last year if Kauto Star wasn't around would have read

2111111

we would have been calling him one of the best chasers in recent memory ..probably norty

so if KS sustains an injury or doesn't run up to last seasons form he is the natural successor..Denman looks like a big plodding type to me with no gears.
 
Difficult to tie in that statement with the way he ran at Carlisle that day.

That sad day when I lost faith in the horse and stopped following him!!!! :shy: :shy: cry cry cry
 
his record first time out may put it in perspective Colin

2F32

he was held when falling as well...basically he needs his first run..might be a decent laying oppurtunity coming up shortly norty

His best form is when running within about a month...and not meeting KS :laughing:
 
Totally agree about Exotic Dancer EC. Thought it was stunning how he came out of the Gold Cup and won as he liked at Aintree. Connections are blessed to have him and cursed to have him right now with Kauto around. Since the jumps pattern was started has there been a better non-Grade 1 winner? Hopefully that'll change soon.
 
I'm going to follow Turpin Green with interest this season. He needs a gap between races.
It will be interesting to see if NR can get his head together as he has loads of talent

Denman is a very big horse indeed and could well have taken a long time to strengthen up, we shall see!
 
Originally posted by EC1@Sep 21 2007, 11:07 AM
EXOTIC DANCER's form last year if Kauto Star wasn't around would have read

2111111

we would have been calling him one of the best chasers in recent memory ..probably norty

so if KS sustains an injury or doesn't run up to last seasons form he is the natural successor..Denman looks like a big plodding type to me with no gears.
Click to expand...
Agree 100%. It's interesting to look at previous Gold Cup winners and compare with Exotic Dancer. ED had a handicap mark of 168 before Aintree so my guess would be that he's 173 or 174 now. In the Gold Cup he had an RPR of 173 and his highest RPR is 177 in his latest run. By the way, the assertion that he's a Cheltenham specialist won't do any harm to his chances in the GC but his best race was at Aintree - not overly similar.
Back to the comparisons with previous GC winners:

Exotic Dancer: OR-173?, RPR(GC)-173, RPR(best)-177
War Of Attrition: OR-174, RPR(GC)-173, RPR(best)-173
Kicking King: OR-175, RPR(GC)-177, RPR(best)-177
Best Mate: OR-175, RPR(GC)-176/178/174, RPR(best)-178
Looks Like Trouble: OR-170, RPR(GC)-173, RPR(best)-173

For further comparison, the novices had the following best RPRs:

Denman-165, My Way De Solzen-166, Star De Mohaison-160, Don't Push It-159.

As all of Denman, My Way De Solzen and Exotic Dancer (and, of course, Kauto Star) are currently 7yo there's no particular reason why Exotic Dancer cannot show enough improvement to take care of that which will probably happen with Denman and MWDS. Currently available at 10/1 for the GC with Betfred I'd say that it was a tempting each way bet.
You couldn't expect him to turn KS over if they both turn up sound on the day but recent GC winners have an unhappy record of not being fit to face the starter the following March.
 
ED had a handicap mark of 168 before Aintree so my guess would be that he's 173 or 174 now.
Click to expand...

172 was his last published OR. Kauto's was 179. That'd be an interesting match race off those marks.
 
Anyone have any news on Jazz D'Estruval?

Saw him hack up in a Novice Chase at Haydock beating a well regarded horses by quite a way. Not seen much of him over fences since - probably due to the ground but he'd interest me for the Welsh National or Scottish if it came up soft :)

As for the ED defeat at Carlisle last season it might have had something to do with the trainer. Though I doubt the stablegirl was too disappointed after he hacked up at Cheltenham (Paddy Power sure knows how to put on a good deal for teh stable staff) :laughing:
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Sep 21 2007, 01:24 PM
ED had a handicap mark of 168 before Aintree so my guess would be that he's 173 or 174 now.
Click to expand...

172 was his last published OR. Kauto's was 179. That'd be an interesting match race off those marks.
Click to expand...
Given a Gold Cup re-run, I'd narrowly favour ED at a difference of 7lb.
 
I thought the Gold Cup was a funny old race this year. Came away thinking Beef Or Salmon being allowed an easy lead did not really test Kauto Star (who I dont think was at his best that day.).
 
by Rodney Masters



WITH the countdown ticking to the jumps season hitting full stride, there was a first surprise on Friday with a likely change of plan for the brilliant chaser Denman, who will now have an entry in Newbury's Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup.

At the instigation of part-owner Harry Findlay, the programme for the unbeaten 161-rated chaser is expected to include the Hennessy on December 1 following his seasonal debut in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on November 3.

Findlay considers that Denman, who has won both his startsat Newbury by 12 lengths and 36 lengths respectively, performs better on the Berkshire course than elsewhere, including Cheltenham, where he won the Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Chase in March by an emphatic ten lengths.

Off his lofty rating, it would be a surprise if Denman failed to end up topping the weights in the Hennessy, but Findlay pointed out yesterday that the likes of Burrough Hill Lad (12st) and Trabolgan (11st 12lb) won the chase under the ‘one' number cloth.

“I've studied the race records over the years, and there was a period over six consecutive seasons when the Hennessy was won by either the top-weight or second top-weight,” said Findlay, whose 146-rated Gungadu will also have a Newbury entry.

Findlay added: “Denman will start off in the Charlie Hall as planned, but then rather than go to Sandown for the Intermediate Chase I'd prefer to see him in the Hennessy, followed four weeks later in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown.

“I'm convinced that Newbury is a moresuitable course for him that Sandown, and his jumping was very good on the two occasions he ran there last season. It's a galloping course, the perfect place for him.

“Running at Newbury would give him a four week gap between each of his first three races of the season, and that would be ideal.

“As we know, it takes an enormous amount of work to get Denman fit and I expect Paul will have his work cut out getting him ready for Wetherby.”

Paul Nicholls has any number of suitable candidates for the Hennessy, and although confirming that Denman would have an entry for Newbury he was understandably rather more circumspect on Friday over definite plans.

“Denman will be among quite a few other horses, perhaps five or six, from our stable entered for the Hennessy,” said the champion trainer, who won the race in 2004 with Strong Flow.
 
I admire Findlay's optimism and ambition but another way of looking at the stats is that Trabolgan is the only one to do it in the last 20 years and he did it as the lowest-rated top-weight in that period. Oh, and he hasn't been seen since.
 
The Hennessy is a great race in the calendar, but does for some reason tend to bottom horses; many have never recovered from it and that includes placed horses. Anyone have any idea why this should be so - something to do with the effort required at that stage of the season maybe? - I don't have an answer, but the stats show it to be true. I'm sure Nicholls is only too aware of these stats
 
I think the fact Denman has run so well at Newbury before is a big factor in their decisions. He should certainly have a large barely on how the handicapper sets up the race thats for sure.
 
There's no doubt a big galloping track like Newbury would suit a big rangy horse like Denman
Maybe Harry wants to give him an early campaign and save A N Other horse as his late season star!
 
Back
Top