Guineas

Slim, don't think Gus is dissing the horse. It's AOB' s continual bugging- up of his horses. He basically says the same about any of his horses that run well as 2-y-os, to the point that it becomes meaningless.

Air Force Blue was definitely a very smart 2-y-o but his best ever, yet to be decided.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Slim, don't think Gus is dissing the horse. It's AOB' s continual bugging- up of his horses. He basically says the same about any of his horses that run well as 2-y-os, to the point that it becomes meaningless.

Air Force Blue was definitely a very smart 2-y-o but his best ever, yet to be decided.
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The formbook says it's probably his best ever 2yo. APOB deserves some criticism every now and again but it's totally misplaced in reference to this horse. It's not a debate on how good he is, it's in the formbook.
 
Timeform

Air Force Blue is all but guaranteed to be Timeform’s Champion Two-Year-Old with such a figure. In fact, the last time there was a higher-rated juvenile it was Frankel (133p in 2010), while beyond that you’d have to go back to the 20th century (Xaar was rated 132 in 1997). Though as a rule it’s best to treat Aidan O’Brian’s post-race assessments of his best horses as marketing sound-bites, the suggestion that Air Force Blue is the best two-year-old he’s trained does appear to be reflected in reality. A title held for nearly 15 years by Johannesburg (127 as a juvenile) has been wrested away on the power of Saturday's performance.
 
SlimChance said:
Well then I'm completely confused as to what you point is. AFB has all the form in the book to back up any statements APOB has subsequently made.
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My point is that he is hyping now (aka rewriting history) the ability shown by the horse in February last year. I don't believe him. I in no way dispute that AFB developed into a very good colt in the course of last year. But the trainer's comments about the horse's work fourteen months ago don't ring true to me.
 
SlimChance said:
Timeform

Air Force Blue is all but guaranteed to be Timeform’s Champion Two-Year-Old with such a figure. In fact, the last time there was a higher-rated juvenile it was Frankel (133p in 2010), while beyond that you’d have to go back to the 20th century (Xaar was rated 132 in 1997). Though as a rule it’s best to treat Aidan O’Brian’s post-race assessments of his best horses as marketing sound-bites, the suggestion that Air Force Blue is the best two-year-old he’s trained does appear to be reflected in reality. A title held for nearly 15 years by Johannesburg (127 as a juvenile) has been wrested away on the power of Saturday's performance.
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Well let's hope he ends up better as a 3yo than Xaar and Johannesburg did. In fact, I suspect there would probably be some sort of history of the top rated 2yo making an average 3yo.
 
simmo said:
Well let's hope he ends up better as a 3yo than Xaar and Johannesburg did. In fact, I suspect there would probably be some sort of history of the top rated 2yo making an average 3yo.
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It depends on the type. The more precocious ones are not certain to train on or improve at 3.
 
gus said:
My point is that he is hyping now (aka rewriting history) the ability shown by the horse in February last year. I don't believe him. I in no way dispute that AFB developed into a very good colt in the course of last year. But the trainer's comments about the horse's work fourteen months ago don't ring true to me.
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He had no reason to lie. Using bookmakers prices to prove your point is wrong. I tried to talk our compilers out of 14/1 for the Coventry, they didn't listen and the industry cut and pasted it. I had a five figure position on AFB for the Coventry based on Gigilo's time assessment and my own knowledge of how good a maiden it was. Sometimes the conpilers see the narrative and not the form. The price only corrected itself near the off of the race.
 
SlimChance said:
It depends on the type. The more precocious ones are not certain to train on or improve at 3.
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Indeed it does - I've just checked and my point about top rated 2yo being average 3yo's is shite. Of the last 8 that raced at 3 (I'm taking SNA as effectively not racing), only Toormore failed to win at least 2 Group One's the next season.
 
Air force is the best horse in the field by a big margin and if healthy he wins this easily.
looks a top class horse in a weak edition.
 
This is Sam Walker's take on AFB in the Post:


THERE are huge expectations on Air Force Blue in the 2000 Guineas on Saturday. The bookies think he's halfway down the track already - and not without reason.
He earned an RPR of 125 in the Dewhurst on his final start, which ranks him above the ten-year average for 2,000 Guineas winners (124.9).
That 125 figure also gives him at least 7lb (roughly three lengths) over all his rivals on RPRs, which is the biggest advantage held by any Guineas runner this side of the millennium.
It also makes him one of the best juveniles ever to race out of Ballydoyle and puts him above all seven of O'Brien's previous Guineas winners at the same stage in their careers.
The bookies are obviously quite right to have him as a clear odds-on favourite - particularly after the ante-post second favourite Emotionless was pulled from the race last week.
The level of pressure and expectation that will face Air Force Blue might put the wind up another trainer, but O'Brien has been there and done it many times before.

 
Dream Ahead earned a 126 going into the Dewhurst not coming out of it.Put any number you like on a 2 year old it doesn't make them the next Frankel.

Must say...Air Force Blue moves like a real good horse but then kicking 2 year old ass isn't the same as winning 2000 guineas as we have all found out to our cost over the years

Because he is so fast over 6f and 7f very often horses like that don't get a mile.

I would imagine the bookies who are going a very generous looking 8/11 are hoping that is the case.

Can't see it myself though..looks like he'll get the trip easily.

If he does win the Guineas is a style as good as he looks it's going to be a very boring season for milers.

He'll be odds on to win every good mile race going and there will be the usual moans about running him over farther
 
i've just bet quite big on the good thing at 1.8 on the machine

and i shall be penning a letter to aidan demanding reimbursement if he doesn't win
 
In contrast to the very high opinions held by the Post and Timeform, John Whitley - or, more accurately, his computer - doesn't rate Air Force Blue highly at all.


Computer Racing Form doesn't cover Irish racing nor is there any "opinion" element enabling a bare rating to be increased to reflect ease of victory but AFB is rated at 114, the figure for his Dewhurst run. He's well behind Acapulco and Minding. Belardo's Dewhurst win the previous season was rated 122, Elm Park's Racing Post Trophy 119, Estidhkaar's Champagne Stakes 119.


In 2010, that 114 figure would have put Air Force Blue 26th in the list of two-year-olds. Frankel was on 132, Dream Ahead 130 and Casamento 127.

 
JamesRB said:
i've just bet quite big on the good thing at 1.8 on the machine

and i shall be penning a letter to aidan demanding reimbursement if he doesn't win
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I'd have held fire until the weekend
He goes odds against Saturday morning, sp 10/11.
 
fonz said:
I'd have held fire until the weekend
He goes odds against Saturday morning, sp 10/11.
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I'd be amazed if he was odds-against on Saturday morning, apart from daft "open an account and get 3/1 AFB, max stake £5" offers.
 
We've seen it happen in the recent past though
Camelot was even money in places in the weeks and months leading up to the race, sp of 15/8
Kingman also evens after the Greenham and he touched 9/4 that morning
Gleneagles 7/4 throughout the winter, sp 4/1
 
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What an extraordinarily uncompetitive 2000 Guineas it looks this year . The 1000 looks much more interesting .
 
Tanlic said:
If he does win the Guineas is a style as good as he looks it's going to be a very boring season for milers.

He'll be odds on to win every good mile race going and there will be the usual moans about running him over farther
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There must be at least a possibility that the three-year-old colts are a poor crop and he's simply the best of them, admittedly by some way on the face of it.

Solow in the Sussex would provide him with a fair test, I'd have thought.
 
I'm finding it hard to get away from the AOB 2000/1000 double. It's not usually a bet I do because of the the Ballydoyle hype but for me the form is in the book and they both should win.

The only other angle is the ew for me but I'm struggling to find what I think might be a big improver in either race. Anyone have any thoughts in that respect?
 
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Yes. I suspect he'll be my default selection for an ew double Ardross unless I hear a compelling case otherwise. The 2000 is significantly more difficult though, and quite frankly it feels like a lottery behind AFB. I may end up doing the Johnston ew double.
 
Good ground at present and they haven't watered. A bit of rain expected, apparently.

Thirteen go in the Two Thousand and it certainly doesn't look a great field at all.

I'm hoping Alice Springs is declared today for the One Thousand. If Lumiere is going to go off in front and set an end-to-end gallop, as seems likely, it will suit Alice Springs down to the ground and her form at shorter distances certainly stands up. Although she's a big price, I could see her reversing the Cheveley Park form with Lumiere and if anything is going to turn over the favourite, she might be the one.

Still think Minding is probably different class, though.
 
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