Guineas
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
On the clock Minding's run comes out at 123, a small improvement on her 121 in the Fillies' Mile last year. Again, it involves taking a positive view of a three-year-old handicap (the one won by Taqdeer) later on the card but, again, I'm happy to do that.
Ballydoyle obviously did run a fine race and it seems to be a popular view that she didn't get the run of the race - it was suggested immediately after the race on C4 by Nick Luck that she "didn't have a clear passage through" - but I've watched the race again and I can't see anything that cost her even an inch. It was noteworthy on the sectionals that she was (fractionally) slower than the winner over each of the final two furlongs.
The talk of Minding going for the Derby is surprising. It's correct to say that some thought was apparently given to Found running in the race last year but only after all the trials had been run by which time it was apparent that all the three-year-old middle distance colts they had were useless. It would be astonishing, statistically, if they were to have two years like that in succession.
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Euronymous
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Frankel
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Desert Orchid
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So you'd fancy her to beat Galileo Gold at wfs? Wouldn't it be very rare for a Guineas-winning filly to be better [at wfs] than a Guineas-winning colt?
This isn't meant as a dig of any sort, by the way. Just highlighting the implication. I'll be crunching some numbers later in the week and will get back to you with my findings. If they agree with yours it will indeed make Minding quite a filly.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Since the turn of the century I'd say Russian Rhythm over Refuse to Bend and Finsceal Beo over Cockney Rebel only. I think you could argue Legatissimo over Gleneagles also.
Well, if you look further back on this thread, you'll see that I calculated Galileo Gold's time in the Two Thousand at 126. So, a dead heat with the 3lbs sex allowance.
But if the two met on those terms at a mile on good ground, I'd favour Minding. Just something about her.
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Desert Orchid
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Fair dos. I thought the allowance was 5lbs?
Re Euronymous's contribution, I honestly couldn't say off the top of my head whether the fillies in those seasons could have beaten the colts [with the allowance]. They probably meet even less often than when figures suggest the fillies might win.
Plus, my focus is on the big handicaps!
Re Euronymous's contribution, I honestly couldn't say off the top of my head whether the fillies in those seasons could have beaten the colts [with the allowance]. They probably meet even less often than when figures suggest the fillies might win.
Plus, my focus is on the big handicaps!
I see from Alastair Down's piece in today's Post that O'Brien is exploring the "trainer error" route over Air Force Blue's demise on Saturday: "...he was musing that he had been too hard on Air Force Blue in trying to ensure the colt got every yard of the Rowley Mile."
It calls to mind his self-flagellation after So You Think ran second at Royal Ascot a few years back.
God forbid that any of these stallion prospects ever get beat because they're not good enough.
It calls to mind his self-flagellation after So You Think ran second at Royal Ascot a few years back.
God forbid that any of these stallion prospects ever get beat because they're not good enough.
Desert Orchid
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Finding the right going allowance is always the key to accurate time ratings so with the caveat that I might not have the GA correct, this is what I'm coming up with:
The consensus that the Guineas and the closing C&D 3yo handicap are the most true-run races on the card is what my findings agree with. It's a matter of how good is the handicap.
I've agreed with the handicapper and gone a touch high with it. The GA allowance extrapolated from the form, once applied to the Guineas, brings Galileo Gold out on 'only' 108. I see that Topspeed has 109, similar to some recent winners but a long way behind others from not long ago. That, too, probably mirrors my own findings (but I can't be arsed to go up the loft to check right now) but it also means I'm not going to let myself get carried away with the form. And that is simply because a time rating like that becomes meaningless to me in the context of that race. Had he come out on a par with something like Makfi or Cockney Rebel - genuinely fast races - I might be seeing it differently. I just think Galileo Gold has won a moderate renewal. The exposed Ribchester in third dents any confidence in this being a hot race. The fourth and fifth, the latter a 100/1 shot, came into it on marks of 107 and 90 and the sixth, Zonderland, was off 106 but on lines with Ribchester has improved to 108.
On those form lines, I have Galileo Gold on 121, about on a par with Footstepsinthesand, if memory serves.
I have the fillies some way slower. I don't think the conditions allow a direct comparison, eg Minding ran the same trip only 0.62s slower. I have her fully 14lbs slower on the clock.
We have to look at the form ratings more closely, therefore.
The average rating of those placed 2nd to 7th is 108. In the boys' race it is 107, being pegged down by Kentuckyconnection's 90. Take him out and replace him with the 8th and it rises to 111, or the 9th and it rounds down to the same 111.
If we award fifth-placed Nathra the average 108, it puts Minding on 122.
If we award fifth-placed Kentuckyconnection 111, it puts Galileo Gold on 123.
That's not how I normally do thing, by the way; I'm merely attempting to proffer a less subjective approach than "I think..."
I haven't yet finalised my figures for the fillies. I always find them harder to get accurate since they are generally less consistent than colts. But I reckon I'll settle on 121+p for Galileo Gold and 117+ for Minding via Fireglow (OR105, 40/1) and Mix And Mingle (OR100, 50/1) running to within a couple of pounds of their marks.
Colin Phillips
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Thanks, DO, nice to see the "workings-out".
Very surprised to see Minding now all set to run on Sunday.
It's asking a lot for her to run in both the English & Irish Guineas before heading to the Oaks two weeks later - and to think she's currently a very short price for Epsom.
I'd love to take her on for that with something right now but what ?!?. The trainer trains 5 of the next 6 in the betting and what a shite race that is shaping up to be now the Gosden filly is out.
It's asking a lot for her to run in both the English & Irish Guineas before heading to the Oaks two weeks later - and to think she's currently a very short price for Epsom.
I'd love to take her on for that with something right now but what ?!?. The trainer trains 5 of the next 6 in the betting and what a shite race that is shaping up to be now the Gosden filly is out.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
What about Siamsaiocht? Pedigree screams 12f so one can ignore her opener. Her run behind Hit it a Bomb looks OK now.
I've done Air Force Blue tomorrow at 3s. Looks a weak renewal and there's so many Ballydoyle colts who have run turd at Newmarket before running their race at The Curragh.
Can't see why they'd say she's going for the Oaks if she wasn't.
The stats for War Front progeny show a big decline in win percentage from two to three. According to RP data the strike rate of his juveniles is a whopping 33% (39 wins from 120 runs) but drops to a still respectable but much more banal 15% (29 wins from 189) for his older horses. In other words many of them don't train on, and it looks as if Air Force Blue is one of these.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
The 200 Guineas is meaningless unless Galileo Gold wins by a street length today.
Air Force Blue would be long odds on to beat him if that race was never run
Awtaad is rated a stone and more behind the principals but is only 5/1 which shows you what the bookies think of the ratings:blink:
I am going with Awtaad who I think is as good as Galileo Gold but I worry AFB might kick both into touch with ease.
Awtaad plus lay Galileo Gold is the way I see it
Air Force Blue would be long odds on to beat him if that race was never run
Awtaad is rated a stone and more behind the principals but is only 5/1 which shows you what the bookies think of the ratings:blink:
I am going with Awtaad who I think is as good as Galileo Gold but I worry AFB might kick both into touch with ease.
Awtaad plus lay Galileo Gold is the way I see it
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
As well as the record of AOB 3yos running poorly at Newmarket before winning the Irish (none of them War Front's I admit) I'm reminded of Declaration of War who ran a stinker first time out in the Lockinge before coming good at Ascot. He was a War Front but wasn't a 3yo. Fascinating to see how he gets on later.
simmo
Senior Jockey
The two most recent AOB's to do this are Power and Roderic O'connor. Between the pair of them the best horse they beat was Dubawi Gold. The 2000 winner didn't turn up in either of those renewals.
That would be Oaks winner Taghrooda you're referring to?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Fair point. I wasn't impressed with the Newmarket race this year though. GG beatable.