Guineas

gus said:
Good ground at present and they haven't watered. A bit of rain expected, apparently.

Thirteen go in the Two Thousand and it certainly doesn't look a great field at all.

I'm hoping Alice Springs is declared today for the One Thousand. If Lumiere is going to go off in front and set an end-to-end gallop, as seems likely, it will suit Alice Springs down to the ground and her form at shorter distances certainly stands up. Although she's a big price, I could see her reversing the Cheveley Park form with Lumiere and if anything is going to turn over the favourite, she might be the one.

Still think Minding is probably different class, though.
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Was changed to Gd-Sft this morning after being hit with more rain than they were expecting.
 
I'll be looking at the market without the favourite. I haven't even checked any of the betting so far but I'm looking at Massaat without the favourite.

Sheikh Hamdan doesn't throw horses at this race and it was a bit of a surprise that Massaat even ran in the Dewhurst when so inexperienced.

AFB isn't guaranteed to improve for stepping up to a mile. He'll probably just outclass the field anyway but Massaat is entitled to make significant improvement over the winter as well as improve a lot for the step up in trip.

I'm not convinced the RP form is that hot. I suspect Marcel is rated on the history of the race rather than the bare form and Buratino strikes me as a more likely danger than him but I'm pretty much banking on Massaat improving more than anything else within shouting distance.
 
Euronymous said:
Damp squib. I wanted fast ground for Lumiere.

I think Time Test is as likely as Solow to give AFB a race.
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I really like Time Test and will back him in any fast ground race he contests this year.

His Newmarket win confirmed he's effective at a mile but his trainer's comments suggest he is going to be campaigned at 10f.
 
I can see the sense of that depending on what happens in the Lockinge - if Limato stays the trip the 10f division will be easier pickings.
 
Sixteen declared for Sunday, including Ballydoyle and Alice Springs.

It certainly looks like a good renewal.
 
I'm backing Buratino EW. Can't have the fav at such short odds and looking for a bit of value, and Buratino beat Air force blue last year, granted ground is a bit on the soft side but I fancy Bura to run a good race and make the frame at the very least.
 
I don't see what would beat Air Force Blue based on previous form but I don't like the fact he'll be wearing a tongue strap. I very much hope he does it though, on behalf of a friend who's been building up a position on him all winter.
 
Listening to the rumours Galileo Gold is the biggest danger to Air Force Blue but despite the ground Mark J's Buratino could be worth a few bob ew.

Granted Air Force Blue kicked him into touch on their second meeting but MJ has a nasty habit of making complete fools of punters who believe what they see when he is around.

There has to be a chance he'll hit the front at some point and hold on for a place or even cause a major shock with MJ in charge.

Buratino EW
 
Going tomorrow and Sunday - looking forward to it.

Air Force Blue looks the proverbial good thing in what looks a fairly poor Guineas on the face of it to me. Marcel interests me (probably in the w/o market). His beating of Johannes Vermeer rates fairly solid form for me; I liked the way he quickened that day. Will be interested to see how Herald The Dawn gets on as well; looks the type to make a nice step forward this year... whether he is good enough for this is a separate ball game. Looking at the videos this evening, Ribchester strikes me as a horse who may be of interest come Royal Ascot in the Jersey or Commonwealth Cup.
 
tiggers1972 said:
The 2 favs look a straightforward double.
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They always do on paper but once those gates open it can be :thumbsdown::thumbsup: so easily.

To be fair it's been some time since I have been so impressed by a filly and 6/4 looks absolutely huge to me. Too good to be true?

I'd be more inclined to back the double but have a single bet on the filly so if she wins but AFB get beat I still make a reasonable profit

Actually the price of AFB looks too good to be true at 4/5 and when things look too good to be true they usually are.

If they both win the bookies could take a massive hammering
 
And for the Whimps (Like me :) ) Paddy Power and Bet 365 offer E/W without the Fav. PP are 11/2 Massaat 1/5 odds 3 places.
Betfred went EVS on AFB there at 9am for a few mins - I logged on, deposited but shortened back to 8/11 before I could get on :mad:
I wonder will anyone else go EVS on AFB at any stage?
 
Double Handful said:
Betfred went EVS on AFB there at 9am for a few mins - I logged on, deposited but shortened back to 8/11 before I could get on :mad:
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they pushed it back out again shortly after. can't get a penny on with baldfred but managed to get what i wanted with totesport.
 
JamesRB said:
they pushed it back out again shortly after. can't get a penny on with baldfred but managed to get what i wanted with totesport.
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Yeah I managed to get on for €110 @ EVS shortly after. Happy enough.
Currently 1.76 on the machine. Will be interesting to see what price he actually goes off at.
 
Double Handful said:
And for the Whimps (Like me :) ) Paddy Power and Bet 365 offer E/W without the Fav. PP are 11/2 Massaat 1/5 odds 3 places.
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The market to play in. I've taken 14s about Herald the Dawn. He was way too keen in the Lagardere and if we ignore that run (could also have been OTT) he looks overpriced.
 
Interesting to read Pat Keane in the Irish Examiner today saying that some of his work at home has been spectacular but against that he isn't 100% certain to stay the mile and being by War Front he won't want it too soft.The boys have a lot at stake today and I don't think they need to be backing him-I think he will go odds against on the machine.
I will be looking to lay him win and place and possibly at short odds in running.
 
Too many doubts about AFB for me to take evens never mind the 4/5 he is now. Stormy Antarctic for me although AFB may of course have the necessary class to win anyway


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Zero interest in the race from a betting point of view. When I looked last night the market looked to have the race priced right.
 
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Yeah, small or no stakes only.

Tomorrow however is a different story. The ground is drying all the time and I'm feeling more confident about Lumiere now. Powers have gone 6/1
 
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