Harbinger injured ...
- Thread starter LUKE
- Start date
swedish chef
At the Start
If true then thats a great shame but he couldn't be with a better man to nurse him back - I do hope it's not career ending as I've quite taken to him.
It would be a terrible shame if he doesn't get to run again as he will not get to prove again how good a horse he is. There will always be those who say it was a freak result at Ascot, similar to Hawk Wing in the Lockinge. Also, I'd like to see the syndicate, as well as us, enjoy their horse for a little longer but I guess if he is retired now, they had some great days out with him.
G
Gearoid
Guest
What a shame. Unless you have had a life changing chunk on something in the Arc this is bad news. With Dunboyne Express out too this is more like a start of the jump season thread.
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
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- Jan 8, 2004
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- 4,463
He has a condular fracture which means he will be out for the rest of the year at least. I think they'll probably retire him - he doesn't need to do anything else re stud value (hes won his Group 1 now) and there's always the danger of further injury.
As Big Mac would say "MORDIN KNEW"
HARBINGER NOWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS THE HYPE
I've been watching the British racing scene for a long time now. But the extraordinary way horses get heralded as all time greats on the basis of a single questionable performance never ceases to amaze me. Despite having seen so many of the horses they've touted flounder when attempting to justify the hype British racing hacks seem prepared to don their rose tinted spectacles en masse at least once a season.
The latest horse to receive the accolades is HARBINGER (42) because he's just romped the King George by eleven lengths in course record time from two Derby winners.
According to Timeform Harbinger is now the equal of Ribot.
Let's take a look at that:
Ribot won all sixteen of his lifetime starts including two Arcs, a King George and three other events that were awarded Group 1 status when the pattern was introduced. He won at the top level in all three seasons that he raced.
Harbinger has just become the first older horse since the pattern was established to win the King George without previously placing in a Group 1. He has been beaten three times below that class in a career spanning just fifteen months.
In winning the King George Harbinger beat a runner up that didn't seem to get the distance after chasing the strong early pace, a third placed horse that's now seven and has won just one of its last 21 starts, a fourth placed horse that clearly ran below form, a fifth placed horse that pulled too hard due to seeing too much daylight and his own pacemaker who ran a suspiciously close sixth seeing he clearly doesn't stay the distance.
It's also worth noting that Harbinger's so-called course record was achieved around a new course that has only been used just 46 times for 12 furlong races when the word 'soft' hasn't appeared in the official going description. He ran a time just half a second faster than three year old handicappers achieved when establishing the previous course record.
How anyone can justify saying that single performance merits rating Harbinger alongside Ribot and ahead of such legendary stars as Mill Reef and Nijinsky is beyond me. I rate him just an average Group 1 winner that was made to look good due to his main rivals running below their best in a tiny field.
And let's not forget that Harbinger has a history of tying up. His form fell apart after July last year in the only two subsequent starts he managed. So the chances of him even making it to the Arc look pretty darned slim. The idea of him being as short as even money for the race is just plain daft.
Given the press coverage and that enormous Timeform rating it's going to take a lot of courage on the part of Harbinger's owners to run him again. It will surely be awfully tempting to exploit the situation and retire him right now rather than risk denting his currently huge stud value with another loss.
HARBINGER NOWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS THE HYPE
I've been watching the British racing scene for a long time now. But the extraordinary way horses get heralded as all time greats on the basis of a single questionable performance never ceases to amaze me. Despite having seen so many of the horses they've touted flounder when attempting to justify the hype British racing hacks seem prepared to don their rose tinted spectacles en masse at least once a season.
The latest horse to receive the accolades is HARBINGER (42) because he's just romped the King George by eleven lengths in course record time from two Derby winners.
According to Timeform Harbinger is now the equal of Ribot.
Let's take a look at that:
Ribot won all sixteen of his lifetime starts including two Arcs, a King George and three other events that were awarded Group 1 status when the pattern was introduced. He won at the top level in all three seasons that he raced.
Harbinger has just become the first older horse since the pattern was established to win the King George without previously placing in a Group 1. He has been beaten three times below that class in a career spanning just fifteen months.
In winning the King George Harbinger beat a runner up that didn't seem to get the distance after chasing the strong early pace, a third placed horse that's now seven and has won just one of its last 21 starts, a fourth placed horse that clearly ran below form, a fifth placed horse that pulled too hard due to seeing too much daylight and his own pacemaker who ran a suspiciously close sixth seeing he clearly doesn't stay the distance.
It's also worth noting that Harbinger's so-called course record was achieved around a new course that has only been used just 46 times for 12 furlong races when the word 'soft' hasn't appeared in the official going description. He ran a time just half a second faster than three year old handicappers achieved when establishing the previous course record.
How anyone can justify saying that single performance merits rating Harbinger alongside Ribot and ahead of such legendary stars as Mill Reef and Nijinsky is beyond me. I rate him just an average Group 1 winner that was made to look good due to his main rivals running below their best in a tiny field.
And let's not forget that Harbinger has a history of tying up. His form fell apart after July last year in the only two subsequent starts he managed. So the chances of him even making it to the Arc look pretty darned slim. The idea of him being as short as even money for the race is just plain daft.
Given the press coverage and that enormous Timeform rating it's going to take a lot of courage on the part of Harbinger's owners to run him again. It will surely be awfully tempting to exploit the situation and retire him right now rather than risk denting his currently huge stud value with another loss.
J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
As I would say, Mordin knew f all.
He has the wrong Timeform rating.
Yes, there is plenty of reference to the first provisional rating if you Google on the internet, but a thorough journalist should check his facts, and Mordin is not a thorough journalist.
I interpret from your post that you are suggesting that Mordin is capable of seeing into the future and anticipating a totally unpredictable injury before it happens or that the injury is a fake. Could you clarify?
He has the wrong Timeform rating.
Yes, there is plenty of reference to the first provisional rating if you Google on the internet, but a thorough journalist should check his facts, and Mordin is not a thorough journalist.
I interpret from your post that you are suggesting that Mordin is capable of seeing into the future and anticipating a totally unpredictable injury before it happens or that the injury is a fake. Could you clarify?
EC1
On a break
one thing Mordin is right about - H has been over rated - and he now will stay so
might as well just accept he's now one of the all time greats :blink:
might as well just accept he's now one of the all time greats :blink:
Isinglass
At the Start
How depressing is this news? Just drives home how very hard and rare it is to get a real champion, or even a horse who cam win, and stay sound for a few years.
Hard enough to get the talent, the temperament, the right trainer, jockey etc etc, but then no one can know what injury lies just around the corner.
Hard enough to get the talent, the temperament, the right trainer, jockey etc etc, but then no one can know what injury lies just around the corner.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
EC1
On a break
I agree with him - but am surprised he didn't analyse it more
his assertion that CB didn't stay could well be the reason CB was slowing so much..I think its a valid assumption when you compare last years finishing time with this year - CB would clearly have laboured in the previous year's KG
its alright calling him lazy - but I don't see many arguments on here backed up by any analysis that proves the rating is correct
I would say that there are more arguments that say he isn't a 140 than say he is
I'm happy if people belive they have seen a similar horse to Mill Reef or Brigadier G..I just don't buy the big rating mesen and never will..and i have explained in a lot of detail why that is..Mordin has let himself down a bit with that tbh.
its just a contrary argument he has made with no meat on the bone
he says they went a fast pace..but last year the leaders went faster and the winner ..who was way back in that race ..actually ran as fast as CB did to 3 out...so there is no way that CB burst himself.
EC1
On a break
I am sorry though that we won't see him again by the looks of it.
real pity
real pity
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
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- 4,337
He's making the fair point that breaking a course record at a new track isn't all that.
He was spot on about the Arc price too, Evens was absurd.
He was spot on about the Arc price too, Evens was absurd.
EC1
On a break
a particularly ill informed comment re time wanker
dismissing people's views because they tackle the game from an angle you can't be arsed with is very narrow minded imo.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I'm dismissing them because it's all these people go on about. Clock this clock that. Mordin needs his figures and his theories and I think a lot of the time he use them as crutches. Judgement of form, discipline and that bit of instinct are far more important than the clock. There is no angle there for me, time is time - and there are plenty of people telling it. It's just another crowd to go against.
Bottom line is people who think this horse is 120s low 130s because of the clock ought to get the form book out and get a grip.
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Great post!
There are usually 2 extremes with times - those who rely on them too much and those who dismiss them too easily - the truth is they are just one of many things which can help you to understand form, and sometimes they are useful, sometimes useless.
There are usually 2 extremes with times - those who rely on them too much and those who dismiss them too easily - the truth is they are just one of many things which can help you to understand form, and sometimes they are useful, sometimes useless.
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
I know only one thing, before I used times, I lost at punting. Since I have used them, I win at punting. That's enough for me.
It's a shame Warbler isn't around these parts anymore, sure he'd have some valuable input on this debate.
It's a shame Warbler isn't around these parts anymore, sure he'd have some valuable input on this debate.
But equally basing your opinions solely on time has mislead you in the past too. I have no problem with using times as one aspect to judge a race. But sometimes I think,like any other tool, they can be over relied on with other factors ignored.