Hebridean - Road To The Triumph Hurdle

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Gearoid

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Runs tomorrow in the 12.20 at Newbury. Rated 112 on the flat he is an intriguing recruit to hurdling. 16/1 for the Triumph hurdle is currently available with Corals and Hills but he has been cut in most places and is as low as 10/1 with Bet365.If he jumps round impressively tomorrow how short could he go? No doubt we have not seen the best juveniles out yet but the standard may very well be set tomorrow.
 
Not sure if I should be saying this but I'm told a recently retired jockey will be having a good bet on a horse called Zaynar in the race. Its been working very promisingly and I was advised last week to back this heavily for the Triumph. I'm told this will go very close tomorrow.

As I said make of it what you want.
 
That's the one by Daylami. Has been supported at 20/1. Still available with Ladbrokes. Am I correct in saying Victor Chandler (VCBet 14/1 opening show) has a leg in it?
 
I am being unreliably informed by a trader on the piss that his firm will be EVS tomorrow. Surely he is a bet at EVS?
 
Flame said:
Not sure if I should be saying this but I'm told a recently retired jockey will be having a good bet on a horse called Zaynar in the race. Its been working very promisingly and I was advised last week to back this heavily for the Triumph. I'm told this will go very close tomorrow.

As I said make of it what you want.
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Hardly a secret Flame; given that Zaynar appears in the RP forecast at 4/1 (and in the betfair SP tissue at 10.0) but is already trading at 9/4, it seems the world and his wife have heard rumours that he's smart.
 
Note to self - In future actually look at whats running in the race
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I now see its Hebridean V Zaynar tomorrow. A sackful of 2.22 up on Betfair to back the Nicholls horse tomorrow. This could indeed be very informative.
 
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Gearoid said:
I am being unreliably informed by a trader on the piss that his firm will be EVS tomorrow. Surely he is a bet at EVS?
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There have been horses as good as Hebridean on the flat who have flopped over hurdles, and Zaynar is the same price in the AP markets for the Triumph. It would seem that Evens is almost the shortest Hebridean could be, unless someone is yanking someone else's chain.


Edit: you can have a grand on at 6/5 currently, so go figure......
 
Gearoid said:
Note to self - In future actually look at whats running in the race
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I now see its Hebridean V Zaynar tomorrow. A sackful of 2.22 up on Betfair to back the Nicholls horse tomorrow. This could indeed be very informative.
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Zaynar is working very well with the senior hurdlers at Seven Barrows - He will certainly give the Nicholls horse his fill of it - I dont like Hebridean nd will definitely bebacking Zaynar if he around the 5/2 - 3/1 mark.
 
My first reaction without looking at any prices was I would back him at 10/11 or bigger but like you said Zaynar is shortening all the time on Betfair so we might be looking at 11/10 Hebridean and 2/1 Zaynar in the morning.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the other way round Gearoid.

For information purposes as it seems everyone knows about him, the older horses Zaynar has been impressing with are Binocular and Blue Shark and he ain't 2nd or 3rd in the work group.
 
Gearoid said:
If he [Hebridean] jumps round impressively tomorrow how short could he go?
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If he goes short, it might be as much to do with the yard as anything else but if those reports about Zaynar are true they might well end up a mile clear and both shorten up dramatically.

Mind you, Starluck recently put huge distances between himself and a few juveniles who already had ORs and he's still 14/1. My provisional figures suggest Starluck is as good as any juvenile on record at this stage of the season.
 
Just because Horse A beats Horse B in a gallop, it doesn't mean that Horse A is any better than Horse B, or for that matter Horse C who finishes tailed off. My advice is to back Horse C each way in a Fakenham Seller, and leave the other two alone.
 
rorydelargy said:
Just because Horse A beats Horse B in a gallop, it doesn't mean that Horse A is any better than Horse B, or for that matter Horse C who finishes tailed off. My advice is to back Horse C each way in a Fakenham Seller, and leave the other two alone.
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:D

Binocular doesn't seem the type of horse that would "save it for the track" though, so to speak.
 
Flame said:
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the other way round Gearoid.
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I would be utterly stunned; I wouldn't be surprised if one or both get stuffed, but I'd be amazed if Zaymar started less than twice the price of Hebridean. It's all very well for the latter to beat Binocular in a gallop, but if Hebridean was thrown into the same piece of work, where would we expect him to come? My tissue is 11/10 Hebridean and 4/1 Zaymar but neither appeal as bets simply because they are on trial for a race in three months time. My plan is to trade around those prices to make a few bob by the off. I'll also be betting Zen Factor at huge odds with a view to trading back in running. He's a genuine 33/1 shot in my book and if I can back him at 150 and get out pre race or in running, then I can enjoy the race. He's a horse I'd love to have long term over jumps, albeit campaigning in handicaps rather than championship races. He will jump a fence too.
 
Good Luck Rory, certainly wise words.

I have a nice 20/1 ticket on Zaynar and will be backing him strongly today Ew. Hebridean was a class horse on the flat but he now has eight flights to jump and the vibes from Ditcheat certainly don't say he's a good thing today.

I agree the value could lie outside the front two and I would personally be edging towards Kashabelle, the 12/1 is too big.

I have seen 11/4 the current trade on the Henderson horse and if near that price when the firms who take a bet open, I will be having a decent ew on him, and doubling up with a couple at Kempton tonight at fancy prices (Red Alert Day & Bullet Man).
 
Betfair is settling around 1.91 - 1.92 with the first books up at a best price of 10/11.
 
I will laugh if Hebridean turns out to be another Mountain, won't be that bad though, can't be. Helps he isn't trained by Jonjo too.
 
Gearoid said:
The VC monkey has sobered up....
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Hebridean may well win today, but backing ex Ballydoyle horses (including very useful 100+ rated ones) over hurdles has been a futile exercise in recent years. Horses such as Acropolis and Mountain have proved that in recent years. Aidan gets pretty much everything he can out of a horse on the flkat and there is likely to be very little improvement left in them when they move on to another stable within the UK. Milkshake Mike has shown what can be done with some of them however.

Hebridean has had plenty of racing and his improvement levelled out during the summer. Nicholls may well be the man to keep these horses sweet, but I would much prefer to side with a lightly raced horse from one of the solid Aga Khan families than a horse who was probably used as a lead horse for the first few months of 2008 until he showed that he could perform to a high level on the track and has therefore been on the go for the entire claendar year.

The prices look tight at this stage anyway and Zaynar is nothing like the price I wanted so I am likely to sit it out. I have nibbled at Zaynar ante post however.
 
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