Hebridean - Road To The Triumph Hurdle

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gearoid
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Spot on DV, they aren't going to improve for leaving Ballydoyle. The only contrasting view taken against that is that Acropolis and Mountain were both trained by incredibly over rated trainers who should have done a lot better with them given their horses talent.
 
Whatever about on course, the morning market is all about Zaynar. Despite being 2.38 to lay on Betfair a few minutes ago, three firms went 6/4 Hebridean. Quite likely they will flip.
 
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I'm struggling to believe that Zaynar can really be beating Binocular or even Blue Shark regularly though. Only last week we saw a highly touted juvenile being sent off fav recieving 2 stone from 8yo Mexican Pete at Taunton in R Den Rien Sivola and getting well beaten on the back of finishing second to Simarian in what was then held to be the best juvenile race so far this year. Alright you've got to respect Nicky's record in this race and his stable form, but it just seems too good to be true. There must be another explanation for a 3yo being able to beat a leading champion fancy. Surely logic should set some alarm bells ringing. Hebridean might very well not improve for leaving Ballydoyle we don't know, but at one level in amongst juveniles you could always ask whether he needs to. Newburys quite a wide galloping track, is pretty flat and the level of form he's shown already might be enough? Very interesting race mind you
 
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This is not a two horse race. One of the big two will flop, so I am going EW on Walkon and I have some hope in my heart. Am I walking alone?
 
Warbler said:
I'm struggling to believe that Zaynar can really be beating Binocular or even Blue Shark regularly though. Only last week we saw a highly touted juvenile being sent of fav recieving 2 stone from 8yo Mexican Pete at Taunton in R Den Rien Sivola and getting well beaten, on thew back of finishing second to Simarian in what was then held to be the best juvenile race so far this year. Alright you've got to respect Nicky's record in this race and his stable form, but it just seems too good to be true or not have another explanation behind it. Surely logic should set some alarm bells ringing. Hebridean might very well not improve for leaving Ballydoyle we don't know, but at one level in amongst juveniles you could always ask whether he needs to. Newburys quite a wide galloping track, is pretty flat and the level of form he's shown already might be enough? Very interesting race mind you
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I personally believe that the Simarian race at Cheltenham was absolute rubbish and that few decent winners will emerge from it. I was going to have a right cut at Starluck in that contest before he was withdrawn. The Nicholls horse that you refer to looms moderate to my eye and Findlay would not surely have been punting so heavily against it at Chepstow if Nicholls had informed him that it was useful.

This is an intriguing contest and one I am looking forward to without a bet placed today. I agree re Binocular that it is hard to see him beating him. Not very hard to see him beating Blue Shark, who has more stamina and was pretty dismal on his reappearance last time. However the guys that have heavily touted this chap for the past 2 weeks are nobody's fool, so I would respect their judgement.
 
No, not at all. Those who think Hebridean will win because of his flat rating need only to look at Peppertree Lane yesterday and how he fared at 1/2.

I'd have a small e/w on Gary Moore's runner.
 
Your logic looks OK I'd have thought AC, there's always a good chance that the front 2 will hardly have been prepared for the day anyway, and just be on a recon exercise with the task of getting them round being first and foremost. It's certainly not unheard of for leading Triumph horses to have a very inasupicious debut before announcing their presence second time out. Detroit City came 8th at Warwick I seem to think
 
If you're going to back one on flat form then Zafranagar is no 500/1 shot given he was well out of his depth last time out.
 
Fancy Zen Factor will be of much more interest when handicapped and faced with a test of speed rather than this sort of ground.
 
Well that was pretty easy - Hebridean never really served it up to Zaynar, needs to improve his jumping a bit but Zaynar a worthy favourite for Cheltenham.
 
Zaynar won well, but didn't make up the ground easily when asked, maybe just a bit lazy. Ruby asked a lot of Hebridean. sat in last well behind off a slow pace and had to make the ground up when they quickened which he did easily but then stopped to nothing - even allowing for the ride and possible lack of fitness he looks a non stayer.
 
Melendez said:
Zaynar won well, but didn't make up the ground easily when asked, maybe just a bit lazy. Ruby asked a lot of Hebridean. sat in last well behind off a slow pace and had to make the ground up when they quickened which he did easily but then stopped to nothing - even allowing for the ride and possible lack of fitness he looks a non stayer.
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Hebridean is one to lay whenever he is short from now on.

He emptied instantly and should have no problem staying when he was a 12f horse on the flat.
 
The best horse in the race won, and was asked little to win it.

He may have looked lazily in the mid part of the race whilst Hebridean was travelling strongly but how many times do you see Ruby sitting like that whilst there is nothing there. Barry urged Zaynar into the race but from 2 out he never looked like losing.

Was delighted with 11/4 and 5/2 early and the 20s looks even better for me now. Winners very classy, how come people can't accept he was the best horse in the race, rather than looking for excuses for the 4th. The 2nd and 3rd had reasonable form and the 3rd is a bit of a pig, he was kept wide for a reason.
 
Flame said:
Winners very classy, how come people can't accept he was the best horse in the race, rather than looking for excuses for the 4th. The 2nd and 3rd had reasonable form and the 3rd is a bit of a pig, he was kept wide for a reason.
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Like Youmzain?

I do not see many on here saying the winner was not the best horse in the race.
 
I don't think anyone is making excuses for Hebridean not winning - can only be described as a disappointing effort.
 
What's that mean't to mean ?, Youmzain is a proven top class flat horse and has off days on the flat and has more than proven his ability in top grade races.

Just because Hebridean was a good flat horse doesn't mean he'll be a good jump horse. In fact many who are rated over 100 and go hurdling turn out to be moderate over hurdles, for every good one you could name five bad ones.

People think that his flat form will transpire over hurdles, but the fact is very few do. Expecting him to emerge as the 2nd coming of Istabraq is just not going to happen.
 
Disappointing in whose eyes Mel ???

Only those who thought he was going to special. No reports out the yard have actually claimed him to be, he certainly can't go down as a Nicholls hype horse, as he is not even considered one of the leading lights.
 
I thought Hebridean was a simple case of being a non-stayer. The second looks very useful.
 
Agree Gearoid, but I also would hardly say he was the most exciting on the flat. I was surprised to see so many people excited by him.

Didn't he spend most of the year as a lead horse as well, there is a chance the poor horse is a bit burn't out.

Watching his race reminded me a bit of purple moon.
 
People think that his flat form will transpire over hurdles, but the fact is very few do
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"hope" rather than "think". You've a better statistical chance of getting a decent hurdler from a good flat horse that a bad one. There is some reason for hope. Although I'd agree with a scaled down version of the general jist of your reasoning.
 
Gearoid said:
I thought Hebridean was a simple case of being a non-stayer. The second looks very useful.
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Not sure, Gearoid; he went from travelling to out on his feet very quickly for my liking and was well beaten coming to the second last.

Much of the 'hype' surrounding Hebridean probably has more to do with a nonsensical report that appeared in the Daily Telegraph I think it was suggesting O'Brien might train him for the Champion than anything else I would think, Flame.
 
Flame said:
Agree Gearoid, but I also would hardly say he was the most exciting on the flat. I was surprised to see so many people excited by him.

Didn't he spend most of the year as a lead horse as well, there is a chance the poor horse is a bit burn't out.

Watching his race reminded me a bit of purple moon.
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Agree with most of this and said most of this in an earlier post.

I cannot see how he reminds you of Purple Moon though. He was a lightly raced flat horse that was very immature with Stoute and then did not take to hurdles. He jumped very big the first day and did not enjoy it the second from what I can remember. He has matured into a lovely horse that stays middle distances well.

Hebridean on the other hand will be a regressive horse over hurdles that will regress if he is ever sent back to the flat either. A Ballydoyle burnout is the category I would slot him into at the moment. Time may prove me wrong however.
 
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