Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

I don't think he's as good as Longsdon. Particularly with chasers.

Obviously strike rate isn't be all and end all, but comparing strike rates over the last 2 seasons, with Hurdlers in 2011/12 Hughes was 8%, Longson 15%, chasers = Hughes 9% Longsdon 21%. 2010/11 - Hughes had 11% strike rate with both hurdlers and chasers, Longsdon hurdlers = 14%, chasers 23%. In that 2 season period, Longsdon has also had lots more winners over fences 44 v 23.
 
Grasshopper said:
Any news on First Lieutenant's participation?
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Last I read Morris was giving it serious consideration.

I really like the horse, but my impression of the RSA was that he was outstayed. I don't think an extended 3m2f on testing ground would be his bag at all. I also think he is far better on decent ground. I could be wrong on all counts.

He probably wouldn't be good enough, but I'd like to see him given a crack at the King George.
 
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Dessie has had a particularly lean year or two, DJ. He never had a good strike rate, but it wouldn't be fair to look at the last year.

Strike rates are always lower in Ireland because of the larger average field sizes.

But given that DH has had a lean year, a lot of his horses are well handicapped, so that is all the more reason to fancy your fancy.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Dessie has had a particularly lean year or two, DJ. He never had a good strike rate, but it wouldn't be fair to look at the last year.
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No but Frisco Depot has only raced over obstacles for the last 2 seasons. No point going back further than that for the purpose of assessing whether that horse will improve.

Have to draw the line somewhere though. Some folks would have you believe Paul Cole is a good trainer because he's won a Derby. Or a better example would be Hen Knight. Woeful for the last 3 or 4 seasons despite winning plenty of the biggest pots in Jumps racing.
 
After reading your original post, i watched FDs last race, and agree DJ. 9s more than fair.
 
davidjohnson said:
No but Frisco Depot has only raced over obstacles for the last 2 seasons. No point going back further than that for the purpose of assessing whether that horse will improve.

Have to draw the line somewhere though. Some folks would have you believe Paul Cole is a good trainer because he's won a Derby. Or a better example would be Hen Knight. Woeful for the last 3 or 4 seasons despite winning plenty of the biggest pots in Jumps racing.
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I selected FD earlier on in this thread and believe he has more than a few lbs in hand - what rating do you think he would have got had he won that 3m Ascot chase? yet he was cruising and dropped 2lb for falling and the winner Roberto Golback was put up 12lb he looked like he would have fought out the finish with that one and Duke of Lucca and Alfie Spinner well back. He wasn't beaten that far by Flemenstar last March either in receipt of 10lb - hes also sired by my fav sire Kings Theatre as is Riverside Theatre, Cue card, Brindisi Breeze (R.I.P.) Balthazar King and many more good ones. He even had the cheek to try and serve it up to Sir Des Champs at Punchestowns before that horse went into second gear. I think he could already be a 150 horse racing off 138 with possible improvement to come?
 
Very positive comments coming from Carruthers trainer today in the Post. After seeing them I had to part with some cash...
 
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Looked at the race in more detail this evening because I suspected that BW, Hold on Julio and Tidal Bay were all chronic prices at the top of the shop and year, Frisco Depot does stand out a bit on his Irish form. Damn Nick Williams for tempting me with Alfie and Harry. Might end up with four in the race.
 
I get how the case looks good for Diamond Harry on paper, but I defy anyone to watch the Wincanton race and want to part with cash after that. I know they came out with an excuse, but just look at his jumping. I think there's some underlying physical issue that is hurting him every time he either takes off or lands because he just will not take a cut at his fences.

If you want any more 1.04 chances, I'm here all week.
 
It's clear that the only way to back him is to do it IR. He travelled beautifully in his Hennessy win and although you won't get the fancy price he's not gonna go from 20+ to 7 or 8 after three fences no matter how well he jumps.
 
Pretty good point Euronymous. I'd rather have 3 times on at halfway at 8s if he's on the bridle and jumped well than have a stab at him beforehand. But I think he's finnish!
 
Soll 'he's a big baby, but hopefully he has a big future. There could be a major staying handicap to be won with him this season'. I've ignored this one; just going to check him out.
 
I wouldn't bother, moehat.

They've jocked-up Mark Grant on Soll, which is terminal for the horse's chance.
 
AP has just said after the first that the ground isnt too bad. He doesnt think it will suit Teaforthree but will suit Bobsworth
 
2nd race run in just 10.66 over standard.
Scratch Tidal Bay and those needing heavier ground from calculations.
 
It ain't going to help slow horses such as Tidal Bay, Magnanimity and Alfie Spinner, and with the wind drying it out and the frost binding it together, it wouldn't surprise to see times near g/s by Saturday afternoon.
 
My initial thoughts now that I've checked my figures:

Hennessy
(Norm 180)
Magnanimity 182? +? ((185))
Frisco Depot 182? p?
Alfie Spinner 182p
Diamond Harry 181 (((197)))
Carruthers 180e
First Lieutenant 179p?
Bobs Worth 178+p
Harry The Viking 177p
Hold On Julio 175p
The Package 175p?
Teaforthree 175? +?
Fruity O’Rooney 175p
Soll 175?
Tidal Bay 173
Lion Na Bearnai 173
Duke Of Lucca 173p +?
Saint Are 172p
Ikorodu Road 171p
Roberto Goldback 168+

This is a cracking renewal. Carruthers is back on the same mark off which he won so gallantly last season yet despite being rated to win an average renewal, he finds himself some way off the top and vulnerable to other improvers.

Magnanimity gets into the race on an attractive mark having had a disappointing second season. He’d been a top novice the season before but looks back at the top of his game and with the potential to start going on as might have been expected of him before.

Frisco Depot was one I highlighted in the race won for us by Roberto Goldback at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. Having not done less than 10-7 in the previous 12 months, Sam Waley Cohen got down to 9-12 so there has to be a chance he’s managed to shed another couple of pounds in order to do the weight here. He was going well enough when he fell that day and is an awful lot better in at the weights with the winner, as is Duke Of Lucca.

Alfie Spinner was fancied for the four-miler for novices at the festival but was ridden conservatively and maybe didn’t quite stay. However, I can’t help thinking if they were looking at that trip for him at that stage they maybe suspected he lacked the pace for the best handicap company. The same stable has previous winner Diamond Harry in the race and he is absolutely thrown in on that old form. He was never going at Wincanton three weeks ago but that was his first ever run right-handed so it isn’t too hard to overlook that, what with it also being his seasonal debut. However, it was also his third awful run in succession, suggesting the ability might not be there any more but I intend to give him one more chance. He is so well handicapped and such a big price, it would crazy not to take out some sickness insurance on him.

First Lieutenant and Bobs Worth, second and first respectively in the RSA Chase at the festival are the ‘profile’ horses: second season chasers with the prospect of challenging for the very top honours later in the season yet still unexposed in terms of their handicap mark. With Roberto Goldback already having lifted the very valuable handicap at Ascot for the yard, the inference is that they were also laying down a marker for Bobs Worth and Geraghty takes over. It’s hard to envisage First Lieutenant turning the form around but he shouldn’t be too far behind Bobs Worth who will carry the burden of being the main selection.

The likes of Hold On Julio and Fruity O’Rooney could be fancied for some of the decent Saturday staying handicap chases this winter but this company might just be too hot, while The Package struck me as much improved this season when taking the big Wincanton race in which Diamond Harry flopped.
 
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