Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

More of a worry is that Nicky Hendersons horses just aren't firing.

This looks an open renewal. You've got the Sun Alliance horses, the older brigade, and Invictus and Highland Lodge who could very possibly be well in.

I'm struggling to nail my colours to the mast but see the race revolving around 5/6 horses, so rather than avoid the race I'll be doing combination exactas and trifectas.
 
Nico de Boinville gives Hadrians an extra 5lb pull with Lord Windemere though :D

Still think Rocky Creek will win
 
I want to like LW's chances as 154 is a good mark for an RSA winner but i can't get away from the fact that I thought it was a poor renewal. Boston Bob fell when in the lead and the rest of them, bar Houblon Des Obeaux, have done nothing for the form. However, Houblon Des Obeaux is running off the same mark as LW, which would mean LW has about a stone in hand!

Form reading is hard work at times....
 
Venetia has a knack of getting horses on an upward curve and a few top trainers have had horses that have needed their first run. Either she hasn't or Hobloun Des Obeux has improved.

He is by no means well weighted but he won well and has proven he can step up from his novice year so in a difficult race I will ignore the jockey choice (if it was) and throw a few beer tokens at him.

He was decent last year and could be better this.

Dangers aplenty but 16s is worth the risk.
 
The gamble on Prince de Beauchene is purely trainer based. 10yo, back from injury, exposed, doesn't fit the profile at all. Trained for the National the last twice and now "going for any good race they can find".

50-1 shot if trained by anyone else.


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Based on elimination, 5 horses meet the profile of recent (since 2000) in the frame horses.
Lord Windermere, Houblon Des Obeaux, Super Duty, Same Difference and Highland Lodge.
Rocky Creek fails with lack of large field form.
 
Have backed Same Difference e/w so am pleased to read that. Backed him for reasons I put on before as opposed to any particular stats, but its nice to know nevertheless. Cheers.
 
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Aragorn said:
Boston Bob fell when in the lead and the rest of them, bar Houblon Des Obeaux, have done nothing for the form. However, Houblon Des Obeaux is running off the same mark as LW, which would mean LW has about a stone in hand!

Form reading is hard work at times....
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Boston Bob wouldn't have won anyway! LW is still completely unexposed at this trip.
 
BennyB said:
The gamble on Prince de Beauchene is purely trainer based. 10yo, back from injury, exposed, doesn't fit the profile at all. Trained for the National the last twice and now "going for any good race they can find".

50-1 shot if trained by anyone else.
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I don't know about that. He was on a curve when he joined Mullins and then they put him away for the National - twice - clearly believing they had something to go to war with.

Having seen how simple misfortune can - twice - thwart a masterplan, they've stated they might as well pick up big money elsewhere while the horse is fit and well.

I think it's easier to argue that the horse is unexposed.

The same goes for On His Own.

The profile thing is a bit of a red herring. Neither Carruthers nor Diamond Harry nor Madison Du Berlais fitted the so-called profile.

Having said that, I'd still prefer a profile horse over another but the bottom line, as I've said before, is that the one thing every single winner of the race has had in common is that they have been well handicapped.
 
I'm struggling to find anything I really strongly fancy in this race, gone right off Invictus. Watch it win with it's head in it's chest now!
 
Dougie Costello now rides Lord Windermere, Robbie McNamara broke his collarbone riding out this morning
 
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Highland court beaten by a horse that was stuffed next time out. Not sure that wincantonj race was up to much. Think the RSA was probably ordinary too

Katenko and Our Father need softer surely. PDB no interest to me.

Hadrians Approach jumping is not good enough. Rocky Creek does lack the big field experience and i think it counts for more in this race than most

Merry King has good pull on Halcion. Might be the one for me
 
LW will drift on course when the public lump on the usual suspects, Pipe, Nicholls, Ruby and Henderson, in my opinion.
 
harry said:
LW will drift on course when the public lump on the usual suspects, Pipe, Nicholls, Ruby and Henderson, in my opinion.
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You might be right but I see him being strong on the machine tomorrow. Mind you there is bombs up for Rocky Creek at the moment.


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clivex said:
Highland court beaten by a horse that was stuffed next time out. Not sure that wincantonj race was up to much. Think the RSA was probably ordinary too
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i think you may have made a mistake in reading the form Clive..HC was beaten by a very well handicapped horse in Standing Ovation..who nto then won head in chest a 34k chase off 7lb higher..his subsequent loss at Cheltenham is no surprise as he only wins at right handed tracks. The time of the race on 9/11/13 backs up that the first two are worth the full distance they beat the 3rd on ratings. HL has at least half a stone in hand here. That alone doesn't make him a good thing..but having 7/10 lbs in hand is a big plus in a race like this.
 
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Euronymous said:
And the Badger Ales Standing Ovation won was an awful race.
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yes of course it was..they sling 34k at owt these days;)..SO never came out of second gear when winning it anyway

i was just pointing out that Standing ovation did not get turned over as Clive stated...that form is rock solid..you would have to be blind not to see that.

like i said..it don't make HC a good thing..but he has a better chance than many here..just on that run alone

imo
 
I was reading the form on the hoof a bit and got the win canton races mixed up. But as euro saysthe badger wasnt really too good a race and he was pretty short priced for a horse that doesn't go left handed at Cheltenham

But fair enough

Not sure about the time thing though. Times in chases?
 
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