Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

couldn't you guys wait , best price now 20s. even though very strong market there will be a further wave of support tomorrow morning . i'm not greedy the money at 20.0 and 21.0 is mine - not as much scope for trading now but I g'tee I will get matched. my advice would be to see if bookies revert to 25/1 in the morning , take it then offload at 21.0
 
clivex said:
I was reading the form on the hoof a bit and got the win canton races mixed up. But as euro saysthe badger wasnt really too good a race and he was pretty short priced for a horse that doesn't go left handed at Cheltenham

But fair enough

Not sure about the time thing though. Times in chases?
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in the badger..Poungach a 144 horse..carried the same weight as HL had against SO,,SO beat him easily 10+ lengths without leaving 2nd gear..HL pushed SO all the way to the line...yet only races tomorrow off 143

this poor race stuff i find too generalistic..and is just too easy to say without backing it up

time in chases can put you onto good bets imo..that Wincanton race with HL and SO being one of the best examples.

if HL doesn't win tomorrow he will still be well in so i'll just keep backing him until he wins..its not like he's odds on tomorrow..i'll get a run for me money...won't be end of world as plenty of other opportunities for him off his current mark
 
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I doubt he was very short in running when he fell. LW was travelling like the winner a long way out. One of the lads next to me in work had him backed heavily and I couldn't understand why he felt so hard done by when he fell, he wouldn't have won.
 
Imperial Commander - 16-1 is shorter than I expected - do they have hopes the old boy has retained at least his form from the Argento?
 
SlimChance said:
I doubt he was very short in running when he fell. LW was travelling like the winner a long way out. One of the lads next to me in work had him backed heavily and I couldn't understand why he felt so hard done by when he fell, he wouldn't have won.
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You may well be right Slim, LW ran on very strongly
More to do with the mentality of what might have been If the horse carrying your hard earned had stood up.
If he had been passed with a 50 yards to go its a bit easier to take it on the chin.

Anyway, Class horses to the fore tomorrow
LW,Invictus and Highland Lodge to fill the places
In which order I do not know :confused:
 
imperial Commander is 28/1 on Betfair. He realistically has no chance.


.
 
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fonz said:
You may well be right Slim, LW ran on very strongly
More to do with the mentality of what might have been If the horse carrying your hard earned had stood up.
If he had been passed with a 50 yards to go its a bit easier to take it on the chin.

Anyway, Class horses to the fore tomorrow
LW,Invictus and Highland Lodge to fill the places
In which order I do not know :confused:
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Rocky Creek is clear fav in the place market overnight. He's the first bet e/w for 5 place abusers.
 
SlimChance said:
SKYBET and Boylesports are 5 places on the race.
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Bet365 too.

Paddy Power are offering generous place only odds on 1 or 2, 5/1 Loch Ba, 5/2 Highland Lodge & 11/4 Merry King are all over the odds.

80/1 for Lord Windemere Hennessy / GC double, 125/1 Rocky Creek & 150/1 Invictus.
 
jft2005 said:
80-1 for LW Hennessy & GC Dohble is criminal. You could take the 9's on offer tomorrow with the 25's for the GC which is 260-1 double!
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You can take 10/1 on him tomorrow with Hills but the only other price you need to consider is the price you think he'll be for the GC should he win, if you think it'll be less than 13/2, the 80/1 is a value price.
 
jft2005 said:
80-1 for LW Hennessy & GC Dohble is criminal. You could take the 9's on offer tomorrow with the 25's for the GC which is 260-1 double!
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It's a related bet so it can't be doubled. The best plan would be to back him at 9/1 and stick the returns at the best available price should he prevail. He'll be at least 10/1 for the Gold Cup if he wins tomorrow IMO.
 
What I've determined from reading this thread, is that the market leaders will all comprehensively run to rough official ratings of 148 tomorrow, with some pulled up after 3F, and others refusing to run to their best. It's definately a race to have a saver on something in my book, and 50 quid e/w on Same Difference is classed as more than just a saver in marbles book. Good luck and laters.:)
 
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marble said:
What I've determined from reading this thread, is that the market leaders will all comprehensively run to rough official ratings of 148 tomorrow,
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I'm not sure how it's possible to arrive at this conclusion, marble.

The ORs of the main fancies going into the race are:

LW 154
RC 151
Inv 145
PDB 155
HL 143

You don't win the Hennessy unless you're 10-14lbs better than your mark so the winner will probably be hiked to a mark at least 7lbs higher than these.
 
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SlimChance said:
imperial Commander is 28/1 on Betfair. He realistically has no chance.
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He is very well handicapped on his penultimate run. Ignore his National run.

Dismiss him at your peril:
Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer: "Imperial Commander is in tremendous form and as fit as we have ever had him. I think he will run a very good race. The handicapper has given him a hell of a chance."
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I don't think any of those 5 horses will win though. Thats just my gut feeling.
 
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