Hennessy Entries

Originally posted by Gareth Flynn+Dec 1 2007, 07:46 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Gareth Flynn @ Dec 1 2007, 07:46 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-betsmate@Dec 1 2007, 07:17 PM
Seven pound shy of Kauto Star, five of Exotic Dancer?
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9 shy of Kauto's best (184). 175 might only be the preliminary figure though, there's no + on it which you'd have to think it deserves giving how easily the RP jumps handicapper gives them out. I suspect he might add a few more pounds on for style of victory before the final rating is published. 178+ at a guess. [/b][/quote]
The results summary page now showing 180 for Denman...
 
Or it could just suggest he was absolutely miles better than the field.
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Clearly that was the case. My point was he could be miles better than them and still not a 180 plus horse he needs to be.

Again all my comments are in the context of him being joint favourite...or indeed out right favourite with a horse (Kauto Star) who is the best 3 miler we have seen in yonks.
 
Originally posted by tdk@Dec 2 2007, 03:43 PM
Yes - rather than tying yourself in knots trying to come up with bizarre theories to the contrary, sometimes it is just simpler to accept the fact that the horse has just absolutely gagged up in a competitive 18 runner handicap off top weight and is an absolute machine...
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To be fair, tdk, it's also hard to believe the alternate suggestion that the 17 other runners, all ran their race. There were a few dubious stayers in the field, and several more would have been inconvenienced by the prevailing Heavy ground.

That's not to knock Denman's performance, but it is possible that the form isn't 100% bullet-proof.
 
Whats more they seemed to walk the first circuit of the track. AP McCoy on RTE said it today...they went very steady early on. That alone makes it bizarre that so many were off the bridle from such a long way out.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+Dec 2 2007, 12:14 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ Dec 2 2007, 12:14 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Warbler@Dec 2 2007, 11:52 AM
The average rating for the field going into yesterdays Hennessey was 143 (rounded) the average in 2005 was 137, meaning that Denmans comfortably eclipsed Trabolgan. The field was also more competitive given that 72% of them had rating in excess of 140, compared to 32% in 2005.
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I wonder if that's of any real significance, Warbler.

I'd be more inclined to measure the competitiveness of the race by how many of the field had how much in hand of their official rating. If I get the chance, I'll try and look back through my figures for the last few years and make a comparison. Off the top of my head, I do think yesterday's race was at least as competitive as in recent seasons.

Two routes to the one conclusion...

Also, do you have access to the sectionals or are you going by visual impression?

Regardless of whether ther ace was fast or slow-run for the first half, there's no doubt Denman was hacking along while others weren't, but we've also seen other horses do that and not hit the heights. [/b][/quote]
The relevance of the competitveness of the race by using OR's is up to you to decide. I'd accept that it requires horses to run close to those levels to make it more meaningful, but I'm struggling to believe all 17 can have run below expectation. In this case I'd prefer to think Denman's performance brought this about because they simply couldn't live with him.

The sectional thing is more to do with what I'll call reasonable hypothesis. I don't have the sections, but do know how a fast time gets run. Once equalised to 11.10, I've Denmans performance 1.5L's faster than Kauto's the week previous. Kauto's was a high water mark for him, both on my limited figures, and Topspeeds. It seems reasonable at this stage to suggest that Denman's run a fast time, (possibly a PB? - I haven't checked). That being the case, at that distance, he could only have achieved this by banging out a series of similar sections over a sustained period, using his stamina reserves equably. There is no other way of doing it, unless he's capable of reaching 80mph for the last 2 furlongs!!! (which he might be :nuts: who knows what he's capable off :D ). It would be difficult to profile off the raw data anyway, as there was a stiff wind blowing into their faces for the final 4 furlongs or so, and some compensation would need making to this factor by way of adjustment to see just how equally he distributed his energy over the race distance, and any conventional sectional analysis would be corrupted by this factor alone unless accurate adjustment could be made to compensate for it.

I keep Festival records for the last 12 years, which generates a league table for the feature races. There are of course drawbacks to this as it doesn't guarantee that each renewal is truly run, so you do get the odd glitch. Both Istabraq and Baracouda for instance are responsible for the slowest times in the Champion and Stayers hurdle (well they were until Sublimity came along anyway). Both horses are also responsible for the fastest times too!!! Azertyuiop is responsible for the slowest Champion Chase time, but since the opposition came from the fences once Moscow fell, this is probably easily explained as well.

What it does do though is give you a hierarchy of sorts, of which the top 6 might be relevant, as it's not unreasonable to assume that at the very least these were run at a true pace. On a 12 year sample all I'm asking you to believe is that half the results of the feature races have been run to a true pace, which is both reasonable and to be expected.

What it does therefore, is draw up a league table with a rating which enables me to fit a performance into an historical context. Until March this year, the horse that had the largest level of superiority over its nearest pursuer was Moscow Flyer in the Arkle. I am prepared to use this as a benchmark of sorts, as I think most people would agree he turned out to be useful, and his level of superiority was indeed quite significant.

This year however, two things happened. In the first case MWDS put up the second fastest Arkle performance, and closed the gap a bit to MF. All things being equal, Moscow would still have held the accolade. However, Denman put up a figure which catapuled him not only to the top of the SAC league table, but also meant he was now about 0.25L's ahead of MF in terms of relative superiority, such was the gravity of his performance, allied to MWDS closing the Arkle gap a bit.

I took this as evidence that Denman was more than just a bit special if Moscow and the Arkle could be used as a benchmark of sorts, and was confident that he'd bridge the gap into open company (indeed his SAC performance suggested he'd pretty well done so already as a novice).

At some point this season I expected him to go past Kauto on the clock, and I believe him to be the straighter more accurate jumper too. As I think you're aware, despite coming to the horse late, he's been my idea of the 2008 winner since last March.

I duly scuttled back home from Newbury yesterday to see how near this horse who Nicholls was telling us was 10Ibs over weight had actually got to Kauto, who had raised the bar the week previous himself. I number crunched it and quickly discovered that I was asking the wrong question. It's not a case of how close had he got to Kauto. But rather one of can Kauto respond again?
 
i am a bit surprised that denman has been put favourite for the king george. he woz impressive but i woz much more impressed by kauto at haydock. anyone else got any opinions?
 
yea soz bout that realised that after i posted it. wot i woz sposed to write woz the gold cup and ok it woz a grt performance yday by denman but surely he's still got a bit to prove against the real top class chasers
 
I was a sceptic but Denman was stunningly impressive. It is a serious shame that Snowy Morning fell as if Denman had beaten him eleven lengths the form would have a rather more solid look.

That is hardly Denman's fault and the Lexus looks like a penalty kick from The Listener and Beefy .

On the other hand the prices are barmy for the GC , Coral are 6-4 Denman that is plain absurd - Exotic Dancer is looking like a cracking ew bet at the moment . As for the forecast ED could upset that too.

Denman put up a wonderful performance yesterday but beating handicappers hollow at Newbury in very soft ground even off a big weight is a very different test to taking on KS and ED on likely good ground at Cheltenham.
 
i agree with ardross actually. exotic dancer is the grt each way bet. he usually gets better as the season goes on, i mean look how close he was to kauto at haydock.
i'm also thinkin at even bigger prices taranis at 33-1 and monkerhostin at 66-1 huge each way prices i think
 
Am I reading this in a parallel world?

What more do you lot want Denman to do? I'll admit I was ready to take him on for most of last season but was seriously impressed with his RSA performance. The animal has been beaten ONCE in his career under rules, arguably beaten by a canny ride on the winner and a decent horse.

He has then come out and won the Hennessy, a gruelling and difficult race to win, 1) off topweight 2) on ground killing other horses dead in their tracks 3) not fully fit!!!!!!!! and 4) he had the race won FIVE fences out, having completely and utterly bolted in.

This horse is a serious machine. He can kill other horses dead with his enormous engine, relentless galloping style and superb jumping. I would take him over Kauto Star at this stage (even though he still has to prove himself against that horse, I realise that) in the Gold Cup. The horse will improve for that run fitness wise and is still young and improving. He literally jumps and gallops other horses silly.

I have to agree with Headstrong - apart from the drunken Irish pricks stood next to me who cheered when Snowy Morning fell - the atmosphere in the crowd was electric. The roar that went up when he jumped the last after continuous shouts of "Gowan Sam!" or Gowan Denman!" for the final 6 fences was great. It even beat the roars when Drever won!!!! :D
 
There seems to be a few people wishing that Snowy Morning had not fallen in order to give credence to Denmans performance and I think they are barking up the wrong tree.

Is Snowy Mornings performance in the overall picture really worth worrying about? He's not such a good horse that the race needed HIM as a benchmark, in fact is he upto much at all ?
 
well snowy morning is hyped coz he was stayin on behind denman at cheltenham festival but to be honest with u he ain't anything special
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Dec 2 2007, 06:25 PM
Am I reading this in a parallel world?

What more do you lot want Denman to do? I'll admit I was ready to take him on for most of last season but was seriously impressed with his RSA performance. The animal has been beaten ONCE in his career under rules, arguably beaten by a canny ride on the winner and a decent horse.

He has then come out and won the Hennessy, a gruelling and difficult race to win, 1) off topweight 2) on ground killing other horses dead in their tracks 3) not fully fit!!!!!!!! and 4) he had the race won FIVE fences out, having completely and utterly bolted in.

This horse is a serious machine. He can kill other horses dead with his enormous engine, relentless galloping style and superb jumping. I would take him over Kauto Star at this stage (even though he still has to prove himself against that horse, I realise that) in the Gold Cup. The horse will improve for that run fitness wise and is still young and improving. He literally jumps and gallops other horses silly.
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For me SL, I personally couldn't have asked Denman to do any more in the Hennessy, and I agree that it was a performance that only an utterly top-class race-horse could put up.

However, your point 2) is interesting, and one I agree with very much. The ground was atrocious, and it was "killing other horses dead in their tracks".

The question I have is whether he is likely to get the same kind of ground in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I would suggest that it is unlikely.

Even if we can all agree that Denman's Hennessy performance was, say, 4lbs better than anything Kauto Star has achieved to date (not something I would subscribe to myself), you have to ask whether is it something that he will be able to repeat in a Gold Cup which is almost certain to be run on good ground i.e. ground which will not 'kill other horses dead' (sic).

I've no quibble with the performance, or the suggestion that he is a machine, or the suggestion that he is right in the Gold Cup mix.

I do, however, question whether yesterday's form is quite up to the standard previously set by Kauto Star, and I do question whether Denman can repeat it in the spring at Cheltenham, on much quicker ground than prevailed yesterday.

And I do think these are questions that can be posed quite legitimately by citizens of Planet Earth. :P :D
 
i have always believed that denman is a better ground on softer ground anyway so when he meets kauto star and exotic dancer prob in the gold cup he mite just be taken off his feet. if not i will eat my hat and socks too!
 
Regarding the ground, a quicker surface will not kill other horses in their tracks at Cheltenham but I believe Denman is even better on good ground!
 
Well maybe i've only seen denman run on quite bad ground. but wasn't it quite quick ground when he was beaten at cheltenham over hurdles
 
Why the apparent belief that Denman needs soft ground? As I said before, I wasn't especially impressed with him until his performance at Cheltenham in the RSA which was very good. The ground that day may have been officially G/S but it wasn't riding especially slowly, in fact I'm of the belief it was probably on the fast side of G/S.
 
no doubt he was impressive then and yday. i jst think that KS and ED will have more speed than denman and then denman will stay on but too late
 
Originally posted by Justin Redman@Dec 2 2007, 08:30 PM
no doubt he was impressive then and yday. i jst think that KS and ED will have more speed than denman and then denman will stay on but too late
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That's all well and good until you consider scenario 2) whereby Denman stretches the field and gallops and jumps them into the ground so they have no answer to give.
 
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