Hennessy Entries

Originally posted by Grasshopper+Dec 2 2007, 10:33 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Grasshopper @ Dec 2 2007, 10:33 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-davidjohnson@Dec 2 2007, 10:09 PM
For me the question that needs to be considered, isn't which horse is better, but which horse is better over a truly-run extended three and a quarter miles, as that is the conditions as to what they'll meet over.

Denman, in my opinion, has lest to prove under such conditions than Kauto Star, despite the fact Kauto Star is a course and distance winner.
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Fair comment, DJ, but the other questions that should be considered are:

"What is the ground going to be like?"
"Can Denman repeat/better his Hennessy-level form on quicker going at Cheltenham?"
"Do I really believe Kauto Star's stamina is so suspect, that he wouldn't be able to live with a Denman-set gallop over 3m2f under quicker conditions".

My answers are:

"Probably Good"
"Possibly not"
"No". [/b][/quote]
My answers are
probably good
probably - the RSA was a brutal display of jumping and galloping.
possibly.
 
I have had to do a complete about turn.

I had thought Denman was a bit of a plodder who would run a sound race in third or fourth at the weekend, which everyone would acclaim as being a magnificent performance off top weight on his first run of the season and I would nod wisely knowing better, that when he met up with real class his slowness would come to the fore and the big two would leave him for dead.

But that was like watching Carvill's Hill's Welsh National without having to close your eyes at every fence. I personally would make him 50/50 to beat Kauto Star in a Gold Cup, which, from a mathematical standpoint should make him favourite for the race in that if, in a vision, you knew he'd beaten Kauto, you'd be on fairly solid ground that he would beat Exotic Dancer, whereas if you had a similar vision that Kauto beat Denman, you might not be quite so cocky that Kauto would beat his old rival.

I still think Exotic Dancer represents the value for the race, although there isn't quite the attraction in the prospect of unfavourable ground for Kauto Star. Hopefully if these 3 class horses stick around there will be a small enough field. It would be a shame if the race got ruined by dreamers.
 
I post rarely but when I do it's usually in respect of Dream Alliance , since I am one of the 23 strong Alliance Partnership who bred and own him.

DA is a young improving horse , but Denman is a machine . We were simply thrilled with our performance and there were certainly many horses in the race who simply could not live with the pace on the soft ground. It is churlish to say that most of the horses "didn't run their race". They couldn't live with him and DA was the only one who threw down any kkind of pursuit.

Jamie said that when DA hit one 3 or 4 out he had just been contemplating getting after Denman and putting him under some pressure (the lead was three lengths at the time) but going through that fence made his mind up.

All those New Alco and abragante tipsters on this thread are talking through their pockets.

Believe me DA is a very good horse but Denman is a superstar in the making.
 
Headstrong and I met some friends of Headstrong before the Hennessy, and they asked us what we´d fancy. On coming out with the usual "Well, Nicholls said" "...hm first run" "hm, tiring ground, lot of weight "etc. , these two men looked at us in total disbelief and said "Well, you watch: it will be Denman by 20 length and then it will be the Gold Cup for him ! There is no other horse in the race to touch him, and you are now the first to know " ....

I did not believe then that it would be that easy, but this was simply awesome and we will not see such a weight-carrying performance so soon again. Simply a machine and won me over completely. Will take all the beating and as long as all horses arrive safely in Cheltenham in march I will just watch and enjoy the race.
 
Calling Warbler, re the competitiveness of the Hennessy this year:

Sorry for taking longer than I'd hoped to get back to you. These are my findings back to 2004.

The figures are as follows:-

The first figure is the number of runners with a rating (mine) on or better than the norm (my idea of the norm) for the race.

The second is the number of runners rated (by me) to have the potential to at least hit the norm.

The final figure is the number of runners.

2007 – 3 + 5 /18
2006 – 2 + 6 / 16
2005 – 4 + 3 / 24
2004 – 2 + 1 / 14

Clearly 2004 was a very weak affair but 2007 was, on the numbers, the most competitive renewal in that time. It speaks volumes for Denman's performance but it looks as though he's found maybe 12lbs on his previous rating. Snowy Morning would only have had to run to the same mark as in the RSA to have dead-heated with him.

(Stands back and prepares for the flak...)

However, it's clear Denman is even better than showed as he wasn't 100% and could well have gone on earlier so my rating for him of 183+ for Saturday suggests he will make sure Kauto Star (185+) knows he's been in a tough race when they finally do meet.
 
DO - couple of questions if you don't mind:

Which of Kauto's races did he achieve 185, and what do you have Exotic Dancer on?

Assuming you have ED at 180 or more, when was the last time you can remember having three active chasers rated over 180 (if it was Moscow/Azerty/Well Chief, same question but for staying chasers).
 
This was going through my mind as I wrote the above, Gareth. I'll need to think about it and get back to you later in the week*, likewise with ED.

(I won't be home until Wednesday evening.)
 
I'll apologise for a start..I have not read this thread...yet

but

Are people getting carried away with Denman?????

Yes it was a cracking win...but the horse in 2nd place is rated 142

Denman is a horse that was never going to worry about carrying weight...so beating a 142 horse by 11 lengths isn't Gold Cup form..because the weight is neither here nor there imo...when a horse is built to carry it.

now if the horse he beats is a 160 horse..I'd say it was Gold Cup form..but adding the weight difference is a nonsense in this particular instance.

What the question should be is...was 11-12 a steadier..because if it wasn't..then we aren't looking at Gold Cup form.

It's all about waht carrying 11-12 means to the individual horses..in Denmans case I think he is built to carry weight..so you have to remove it as far as ratings are concerned.

What impressed was his jumping for me...but as yet he has not proved on this prformance that he is Gold Cup material...the race was also run at a crawl..favouring a horse carrying weight as it wasn't a thorough test.

Handicap wins can be very misleading...particularly when not strongly run.

GC prices for me would be KS ..EVENS ...DENMAN 5/1

just my view...either way..no one will remember anyone elses view come March...so it's all acadamedic what we say now anyway :laughing:
 
If Denman take the lead in the Gold Cup with more than a circuit to go he will make Kauto Star stamina and jumping to be put under pressure,
Denman the one for me.
 
It was the ease with which Denman did it that was so impressive. In past Hennessys, horses are all out at the line and come in blowing like hell, even on good ground. This horse looked like he could go round again - and never made a mistake. He had plenty in hand.

I think both he and KS will improve over the year - not so sure Exotic Dancer will, and I find it incomprensible that anyone could imagine he will beat these two - he's always been all out behind KS, why should he ever beat him? As for Denman being a big horse, yes he is, and probably still just filling out his huge frame - but others in the field were pretty big too, and sometimes it's a harder task for a very big horse to carry weight in softened ground than it is for a smaller one

I do hate all this automatic crabbing of good horses. And let's not crab Dream Alliance either, just beacuse the handicapper hasn;t quite caught up with him yet! - Well done to Groundhogg and team, it must have been a thrill, tho the 'also rans' barely got a lookin in the Winners Enc, it was so heaving!

It was the first time ever btw - and I go to almost all Newbury meetings - I've had real trouble getting onto the standings to see the winner after the race :luv: Everyone wanted to give the team its due - and esp the horse. Winning trainer, jockey and entourage were in The Pheasant after racing btw, where a number of local trainers offered them most hearty congratulations. It was a great atmosphere. A memorable day!
 
So Denman wasn't blowing at all after the race?

I wonder if there's that much improvement from fitness in him, then. Not to say there won't be some from sheer ability.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Dec 3 2007, 11:32 PM


I think both he and KS will improve over the year - not so sure Exotic Dancer will, and I find it incomprensible that anyone could imagine he will beat these two - he's always been all out behind KS, why should he ever beat him?
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Because he`s getting closer.
 
Originally posted by EC1@Dec 3 2007, 11:04 PM
Denman is a horse that was never going to worry about carrying weight...so beating a 142 horse by 11 lengths isn't Gold Cup form..because the weight is neither here nor there imo...when a horse is built to carry it.
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I think that's a very pertinent point.

I remember thinking Suny Bay had to be up to winning the Gold Cup after he carried a big weight to victory in soft ground but he was always found wanting at the very top level.

Denman might just also be one of those horses that will always be best when carrying a wee bit of condition. If he was reportedly 10lbs overweight then you have to wonder if that really constitutes the lack of fitness being reported. 10lbs is probably less than 1% of the horse's optimum mass weight. I reckon I could consider myself pretty finely chiselled if I was only 1% overweight.
 
I take the point you are making. With a less physical looking horse you would be inclined to give a horse more credit for margin of victory than the standard 1lb per length (or whatever you use) for a top weight on testing ground. He may well not improve as much as you'd think for running off a lower weight, but that wont count while he counts. In this case even if you just use the standard approach and give him no further credit you end up with 161 + 7 (Dream Alliance was surely 7lbs ahead of the handicapper at least, which is very conservative as it means every other runner ran below its mark) + 11 = 179, you still end up with a performance that would win virtually every Gold Cup for the last 30 years.

Yet this year it may not be good enough.
 
Denman is a horse that was never going to worry about carrying weight
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I certainly wouldnt go to those extremes but my thoughts that a literal interpretation wouldnt take into account the fact that hes so well built. There have been examples of smaller jumpers where the effect was the opposite

I dont buy the nonsense that Denman was really as fit as a fiddle. PN doesnt send punters away and he was quite clear that the horse was above his normal weight. although PN's definition of fully fit maybe much more searching than that of a less astute trainer
 
I would say interpret it thus. Denman was quite a bit fitter than Nicholls would normally have a horse first time out, but not as fit as he would usually have him for a major target. You would expect some, but less than normal, improvement in terms of fitness.
 
Originally posted by clivex@Dec 4 2007, 10:08 AM
I dont buy the nonsense that Denman was really as fit as a fiddle. PN doesnt send punters away and he was quite clear that the horse was above his normal weight. although PN's definition of fully fit maybe much more searching than that of a less astute trainer
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It's got nothing to do with putting people away. I don't think Alan King puts people away, but he apparantly got My Way De Solzen's fitness level totally wrong.

In any case, contrary to what was posted earlier, Nicholls said after the race that "He is having a good blow there."
 
probably about right melendez

Yes it was a cracking win...but the horse in 2nd place is rated 142
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this doesnt wash with me at all. Easily beaten by 11 lengths in first place, so its barely relevant and also, if there is a determinatin to take such a defeat literally, seems to assume that all the other 16 runners didnt run to their best. Bit unlikely when going for such a prize i think?
 
Originally posted by Melendez@Dec 4 2007, 09:57 AM
= 179, you still end up with a performance that would win virtually every Gold Cup for the last 30 years.

Yet this year it may not be good enough.
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While that may be true, there have been numerous winners in that time whose Gold Cup winning rating fell well short of their ratings from elsewhere earlier in their season/career.

The Gold Cup is more about which horse goes and does the biz on the day than about absolute ability.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Dec 4 2007, 10:18 AM

In any case, contrary to what was posted earlier, Nicholls said after the race that "He is having a good blow there."
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If you are referring to my earlier post, I never said he didn't below at all - how could he not after 3 miles in heavy? - that was your assumption which I didn't bother to reply to because I'm tired of responding to criticisms of things I never even said!

I said he wasn't blowing and looking pretty done in like *previous* winners I'd personally seen in the First spot after the Hennessy. Which he wasn't.
 
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