Hennessy Entries

Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Dec 2 2007, 07:29 PM
Why the apparent belief that Denman needs soft ground? As I said before, I wasn't especially impressed with him until his performance at Cheltenham in the RSA which was very good. The ground that day may have been officially G/S but it wasn't riding especially slowly, in fact I'm of the belief it was probably on the fast side of G/S.
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I'm of the belief it was riding +0.81 which is Good, and that this was his most taking performance to date by some way.

He put nearly 6L's between himself and any other winner of the SAC in the last 12 years IMHO. I'd also draw your attention to the similarities between this run and the Hennessey. Again we saw it, the same trademark. Straight accurate jumping at speed, crucnhing through the sections between fences with all but Aces Four floundering unable to keep up behind and sustain the relentless gallop - jump - gallop metronomic rhythm. Eventually the pressure forced a mistake into Aces but Denman would have beaten him I feel.
 
Originally posted by Justin Redman@Dec 2 2007, 07:30 PM
no doubt he was impressive then and yday. i jst think that KS and ED will have more speed than denman and then denman will stay on but too late
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I'm afarid that's palpable nonsense Justin. A fast time (speed as you call it) is run through pounding out fraction after fraction (stamina in any other language) and doing so evenly over the entire race distance. A fast time is not run by one that goes slow and then sprints a finish, even though many mug punters confuse these horses as being 'fast animals'. They aren't. Quite the opposite, they generate slow times. Kauto's best chance lies in a slow tactical race. If Denman sets out to race a time, then both Kauto's stamina and jumping are likely to come under greater pressure
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader+Dec 2 2007, 07:47 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Shadow Leader @ Dec 2 2007, 07:47 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Justin Redman@Dec 2 2007, 08:30 PM
no doubt he was impressive then and yday. i jst think that KS and ED will have more speed than denman and then denman will stay on but too late
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That's all well and good until you consider scenario 2) whereby Denman stretches the field and gallops and jumps them into the ground so they have no answer to give. [/b][/quote]
Thank you Dom... which is precisely how he runs a fast time. If any one need worry about speed (overall - not acceleration) it's the other two
 
Judging how well Kauto Star stuck at it last time out I dont think his stamina is in any doubt unless it becomes really bottomless.

As for his jumping I have been impressed with him against Exotic Dancer. Took lenghts out of the field down the back straight. I think Kauto Star would enjoy a strongly run race....arguably his most unimpressive effort in Grade 1 company last year was in a slowly run Gold Cup.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Dec 2 2007, 07:29 PM
Why the apparent belief that Denman needs soft ground? As I said before, I wasn't especially impressed with him until his performance at Cheltenham in the RSA which was very good. The ground that day may have been officially G/S but it wasn't riding especially slowly, in fact I'm of the belief it was probably on the fast side of G/S.
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SL, I didn't say that Denman needs soft ground.

I said quicker ground will not "kill horses dead" in the manner that Heavy ground did in the Hennessy, and that Denman will almost certainly meet the combination of quicker ground and immeasurably better opposition in March.

Are you suggesting that Denman has not improved on his RSA Chase form in the Hennessy? At the very least, you have to concede that his proven steeplechasing form on Soft/Heavy ground i.e. yesterday, is significantly superior to his proven steeplechasing form on quicker ground i.e. last March, no?

Or do you want it both ways? :P :D
 
No, I think he has undoubtedly improved, Grasshopper. My comment wasn't entirely directed at you either, several people seem to have implied that they think Denman wants, or needs, or can only win a Gold Cup on, soft ground. I don't believe that to be the case.

Au contraire, I think that even on good ground he can "kill horses dead" with his relentless galloping, superior engine and brilliant jumping. He can stetch them on any type of ground I am sure.
 
As for his jumping I have been impressed with him against Exotic Dancer. Took lenghts out of the field down the back straight
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Agree. I think there has been some improvement this year, which has been overlooked. Last time I thought he jumped better than in any previous race
 
But would you agree, SL, that your theory about him "killing horses dead" on quicker ground, is essentially unproven (outside of novice company) at this stage?

We won't even be able to test the theory before the Gold Cup, as he is almost certain to get bottomless ground in Leopardstown at Christmas, and it's usually quite soft for the Festival Trials meeting in January too (which is where I presume he'll go, unless he is sent to the Irish Hennessy instead, in which case the ground will again be soft).

That being the case (and it is, on my reading of the formbook) I cannot have him as 6/4 jolly for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which will be run on much quicker ground, and with probably one of the smallest fields in living memory.

Kauto Star is indisputably 30lbs better a racehorse than anything Denman faced on Saturday, and I think people are tending to overlook that fact, due to the dazzling nature of the latter's performance yesterday.
 
That theory is possibly unproven although he went a fair way to show as such in last season's RSA.

I agree though Grassy that the horse still has improvement to make but I am sure he can achieve it and more.

I'd like to impress on you that I wasn't a Denman fan at all until the RSA and even then, although impressed by that performance, wasn't entirely convinced. I'm quite happy to admit that yesterday I was utterly convinced that the horse is the real deal.

I also readily agree with you that 6/4 is a daft price for the GC - hells bells, I wouldn't take that price on ANY horse for the Gold Cup at this stage, possibly unless it was a price to turn up!
 
I not sure anyone is disputing that the horse is the real deal, SL - I certainly believe he is.

I just don't have the merit of Saturday's bare form rated as highly as some....or should I say....I think it is possibly a little more suspect than the current round of Denmania would have us believe (mainly because I think form on Heavy can sometimes be a little misleading).

Nevertheless, the performance from Denman himself was pretty much faultless imo, and any crabbing on my part is around whether he is in the top five staying chasers of the last 25 years (the widely held view, it would appear), or merely the top ten (which I'm prepared to readily accept).

I still rate Kauto Star higher, though, and can't have it that a winner of a heavy-ground Hennessy - despite the quality of the performance - suddenly finds himself a shorter price than the current champion, who hasn't exactly been found wanting this season.
 
For me the question that needs to be considered, isn't which horse is better, but which horse is better over a truly-run extended three and a quarter miles, as that is the conditions as to what they'll meet over.

Denman, in my opinion, has lest to prove under such conditions than Kauto Star, despite the fact Kauto Star is a course and distance winner.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Dec 2 2007, 07:56 PM
Kauto's best chance lies in a slow tactical race. If Denman sets out to race a time, then both Kauto's stamina and jumping are likely to come under greater pressure
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Stamina possibly, but Kauto has the tactical speed to win Queen Mothers and Tingle Creeks so i disagree about his jumping being a question mark in a fast run Gold Cup. If Denman does indeed set out race a time it would suit Exotic Dancer down to the ground.
 
I'm of the opinion that Kauto would have won the Gold Cup by even further if they'd gone the usual Gold Cup pace.
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@Dec 2 2007, 10:09 PM
For me the question that needs to be considered, isn't which horse is better, but which horse is better over a truly-run extended three and a quarter miles, as that is the conditions as to what they'll meet over.

Denman, in my opinion, has lest to prove under such conditions than Kauto Star, despite the fact Kauto Star is a course and distance winner.
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Fair comment, DJ, but the other questions that should be considered are:

"What is the ground going to be like?"
"Can Denman repeat/better his Hennessy-level form on quicker going at Cheltenham?"
"Do I really believe Kauto Star's stamina is so suspect, that he wouldn't be able to live with a Denman-set gallop over 3m2f under quicker conditions".

My answers are:

"Probably Good"
"Possibly not"
"No".
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Dec 2 2007, 10:26 PM
No doubt about it, but ED has improved since then.
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Actually, what I should have said is that Kauto and ED would have both pulled further clear.
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@Dec 2 2007, 10:09 PM
For me the question that needs to be considered, isn't which horse is better, but which horse is better over a truly-run extended three and a quarter miles, as that is the conditions as to what they'll meet over.

Denman, in my opinion, has lest to prove under such conditions than Kauto Star, despite the fact Kauto Star is a course and distance winner.
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It's an excellent point David, but having just posted a similar sentiment elsewhere I would say that :D

The 2007 renewal was the slowest I hold a record. It was 13% below par which is typical of a stayers hurdle. Given that Kauto went into the race with doubts about his stamina, and question marks over his jumping, it's always struck me as perverse that everyone chose to play into his hands, and set it up for him thus. As Euro said, he'd won a Tingle Creek and recorded what turned out to be the fastest 2 mile chase performance of the season in the process. Why would they do that shrug:: I still have a nagging doubt that he's got to prove his ability again, and won't accept that 24F's at Haydock or Kempton, is evidence that he gets 26.5 at Cheltenham other than what he's shown us he can do off a slow pace. I suspect he'll get the trip incidentally, but the margins are very fine at the apex, and he's going to have to get every yard of it, because Denman will. In short I think they'll both get the trip, its just that I feel that Denman will get it better :brows:

It does however leave something of a nagging doubt. Denman seems to have the greater cubic capacity, and jumps accurately, straight, and gets away from his fences quickly. In theory he should be capable of turning the screw from much further out than any other horse and gradually grinding them into the ground as one by one they fall away. Running a race in this fashion, does of course place one hell of an onus on the jockeys judgement as to when he should start applying the pressure but at the moment he looks the better equipped of the two to do it. In that respect he has his fate in his own hands, although of course the jockey could always misjudge the moment, and go too soon, or leave it too late and bring Kauto's finishing speed into play.

By bigger fear regarding the ground grassy would be good to firm or firm
 
Originally posted by Headstrong+Dec 2 2007, 12:15 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Headstrong @ Dec 2 2007, 12:15 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-landlark@Dec 1 2007, 09:15 PM
Well as I said the bet of the season has to be Kauto Star/Denman forecast in the Gold Cup.  :xmassnowlaugh:
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Too true already! But how do we find an antepost forecast??

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Meant to ask, do you really believe this?

So far out I'd say that it was an insane bet to try and strike.

Best Mate, Kicking King, and War of Attrition have all failed to turn up in recent years. The casualty rate is at least 25%, trying to get two horses to post only increases this. At current prices if you reversed them you're only getting about 11/4 you're money given that 50% of your stake is down the toilet from the start. I would blanche at taking a 11/4 on a win single on the day, yet alone taking on a forecast in a Grade 1 race that has a history of throwing a 20/1+ shot into the places. Even if you were able to strike it, you've still got to get the result on the track. I'm not sure I could ever describe a 11/4 as a bet of the season. There's plenty of similar sized pay outs on ultimately more predictable races with less risks attached to them flying around every day
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Dec 2 2007, 11:35 PM
Running a race in this fashion, does of course place one hell of an onus on the jockeys judgement as to when he should start applying the pressure but at the moment he looks the better equipped of the two to do it. In that respect he has his fate in his own hands, although of course the jockey could always misjudge the moment, and go too soon, or leave it too late and bring Kauto's finishing speed into play.
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So, if Denman get's turned over it's the jockey's fault, Warbler?? :rolleyes: :P
 
Not quite what I said. But by the same token, if Denman wins under the circumstances described, then I believe the jockey will deserve great credit too. It's my believe that Denman can crank it up and sustain it from further out than Kauto. There is of course a danger of going too fast too early and setting it up for Sublimity (sorry Exotic Dancer). Leave it too late, and Kauto's 2 mile speed will be in play. I feel that Denmans got to be given a chance to lose the race, which means that if you were going to go one way or the other, you'd lean towards trying to reproduce the type of run that he's used to such effect in the SAC and Hennessey, as there are still some lingering doubts as to whether Kauto could handle it.

Look at this way. I'm a reasonable disciple of the school that advocates always doing what the opposition would like you to do least. I'd be pretty confident the type of race Kauto would least want to take Denman on in, would be a quick one that involves going through the sections from about 2 miles out. We'll see what Kauto's got left at the very end. I personally think he'll be able to live with him for a long time, but only one horse can pass the line first (well not strictly true - but you know what I mean). Under these conditions I'd expect that Denman holds the aces
 
Isn't it? :)

Why should there be any questions around when the jockey should "apply the pressure"?

In previous posts, you have suggested that Denman's strength is his ability to distribute his energy evenly, but at a very high tempo. Surely then, whoever is jocked-up, should do exactly that, in order to make best use of the horse? Isn't this key to your argument about Denman finding the cracks in Kauto Star's stamina-armour?

Why would the ride him any other way, when they know he is an out-and-out galloper, who stays all day?
 
The jockeys going to have judge it right for sure, so I suppose on reconsidering the post, to some extent I was looking to acknowledge the contribution of the jockey in any defeat. I'd be more inclined to do so however, were he to leave it too late, or to do so if he were wrecklessly suicidal in his early pace. Even Denman can't be sent on like a miler from the moment the tapes rise and hope to sustain it.

There is of course another possibility, and that he gets beaten by a better horse on the day. Denman should be in a position to dictate the race though, given that he probably has the greater stamina. Judging pace will be critical to his success.

Yes I suppose I am saying that the jockey will be critical in any defeat, given that I think Denman can win the race if run under certain circumstances, and will lose if left too late. The choice is with the pilot. Kauto should only get a choice in the final half a mile. Denman has the tools to get the job done (imho) and probably to the level where there's nothing that any other horse can do about it. However, the jockey will need to use those tools correctly. If he does Denman wins, if he doesn't then Denmans in trouble. Thinking about it therefore, the best judge of pace on a staying chaser is who? Whom, I suspect he'll plump for Kauto, which will be interesting, because Ruby's selection alone will probably dictate who goes off fav.
 
Originally posted by Warbler+Dec 2 2007, 11:46 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Dec 2 2007, 11:46 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by Headstrong@Dec 2 2007, 12:15 AM
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@Dec 1 2007, 09:15 PM
Well as I said the bet of the season has to be Kauto Star/Denman forecast in the Gold Cup. :xmassnowlaugh:
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Too true already! But how do we find an antepost forecast??
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Meant to ask, do you really believe this?
So far out I'd say that it was an insane bet to try and strike.
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No, if that was addressed to me, I don't really, was just having one of those late night fantasies - I don't bet much long antepost - certainly not for jumping other than the Gd Nat, and I certainly wouldn't go looking for an antepost forecast! But I probably will forecast them on the day if they both make it, as I can't see anything else coming between them, let alone beating them

Unlike other/usual winners of the Hennessy, I don't think Denman had a hard race, so I expect him to follow up this year. I didn't back him but I said to someone - Catrin? - as he broke from the parade and started to canter off to the start, that he had that "I'll murder the lot of you" look in his whole demeanor, and I felt from that moment that he would win the race. He's an exciting horse alright
 
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