Hennessy

Something about Denman that I'm averse to & I don't know what! Maybe because he dethroned Kauto Star, maybe because he's so big and a galloper. Maybe someone connected ... He could well win, but I'll not bet on him.

I'll have a £1 on a couple of outsiders, just for interest.

What outsiders would you choose, going for a fancy exacta?
 
Barbers Shop/Cappa Bleu

Funny you mention the forecast mrussell, i done a rev fc in last years - Big Bucks and Air Force One....i was getting excited between the 2nd last and last...
 
The more I look at the race I have actually changed my mind on Denman. I would think connections will have him plenty fit (sounds like he has been in training for some time) and they probably want to know what they have on their hands as soon as possible so turning up there half cooked would confirm that.

Ground, trip, track should suit. Would I back him? Probably not given his problems as there are probably some safer e/w bets at decent prices to be rooted out.
 
There is a quote somewhere from Nicholls saying that the stable backed What a Friend when he was 12/1 so that may tell you where the stable thought the value was. Whether or not he will win is a different matter as why would Ruby ride Denman otherwise??
 
I just have it in my head that Denman will almost certainly lose, but in doing so, will equally almost certainly run well enough to at least sustain his position in the Gold Cup betting. I know this doesn't make a lot of sense, if something should be in contention till late it should have a good chance of winning, but I just feel he doesn't have the scope to be far enough ahead of the handicapper than everything else in the race - something somewhere will excel. As for category II - Barbers Shop, Killyglen and What a friend. With Denman in the field, how can there possibly be room in the market for 3 others to start below 7/1. All have there chances in that they aren't that exposed and are reasonably handicapped on what they've done, equally none of them strike me as horses that are likely leave the best of their form that far behind. I could be shown to be wrong, but I'd want them to be 10/1 shots to seriously consider backing them.

I might just lay the 4 of them as I'm not clever enough to figure out which of the others are the likely ones to put in the big performance. There is plenty of strength amongst the outsiders, horses that you wouldn't be too surprised to see running a once off blinder. I'll leave it to the day, but I'd be happy with the rest of the field at evens or better.
 
Melendez said:
I just have it in my head that Denman will almost certainly lose, but in doing so, will equally almost certainly run well enough to at least sustain his position in the Gold Cup betting.
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This could well be the case. It is a logical assessment. Like I say, he is more likely to win the Gold Cup itself than this... but I won't be too surprised if he wins both.

Remember apart from last time out (when he fell) the horse has never been out of the first two in any completed start at the highest level (including the period when people were burying him)... The horse truly is a monster.
 
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I don't think the "never out the first two" argument is particularly relevant myself. It rather ignores the fact that he was well beaten in both completed starts last season - despite finishing second both times.

The horse could prove me wrong if back to his imperious best - and I'll put my hands up if he does - but based on his last three outings, he is not well handicapped off a mark of 174, and that's reason enough to take him on at what are extremely parsimonious odds.....imho.
 
Grasshopper said:
I don't think the "never out the first two" argument is particularly relevant myself. It rather ignores the fact that he was well beaten in both completed starts last season - despite finishing second both times.

The horse could prove me wrong if back to his imperious best - and I'll put my hands up if he does - but based on his last three outings, he is not well handicapped off a mark of 174, and that's reason enough to take him on at what are extremely parsimonious odds.....imho.
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That's just my point though... If he can finish runner-up when running pounds below his form, any return to form will see him destroy anything that comes near him.
 
SteveM said:
That's just my point though... If he can finish runner-up when running pounds below his form, any return to form will see him destroy anything that comes near him.
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But Steve, you can't discount the level of form he has run to in those races either, can you?

He's probably ran in the 150's at Kempton, and (imo) about 170 in the Gold Cup. He runs off 174 on Saturday, hence I have him badly handicapped.

Just saying he had the class to finish twice to good horses is too simplistic, imo.
 
Grasshopper said:
But Steve, you can't discount the level of form he has run to in those races either, can you?

He's probably ran in the 150's at Kempton, and (imo) about 170 in the Gold Cup. He runs off 174 on Saturday, hence I have him badly handicapped.

Just saying he had the class to finish twice to good horses is too simplistic, imo.
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But for the reasons already stated I think there is an excellent chance he will leave last season's form behind him. We'll know it when we see it, but for the time being I'm a believer.
 
Fair comment, and perfectly acceptable for those that keep the faith to be hopeful, given Nicholls confidence that he is back to his best.
 
I know TDK is a big fan of the horse, but surely Coral's 7/2 about Denman is just a - well - shocking price?
 
Joe Lively looking a much more attractive proposition at a big price now that Hawkins replaces Tizzard, and takes off another 7lbs. The jockey is well worth that claim, imo.
 
Not you personally!!!

(It's something my daughter and chorus at the end of the TV ads to Andie McDowell or whatever her name is.)
 
Is there any piece of form other than the Cotswold that gives Joe Lively a chance off 162? Don't like that form at all. Hawkins obviously a positive booking but if he couldn't be placed in a Welsh National off 7 lb lower, I couldn't have him on my mind for this.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not you personally!!!
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...you’re only as good as your next tip and following opposing STS with Fame And Glory (Irish Champion) and Zaynar with Karabak (last weekend) and only just salvaging the certainty of Kauto Star at Haydock (hardly inspired)… you may well be right.

Come on Binocular!
 
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You might be right, DJ, but I think the both the jockey and price offset the fact that he could be handicapped a shade harshly.
 
A quick one for Form students:

What chance An Accordion:

1. laugh & move on.
2. slim to none
3. we-e-e-lllll, at that price, maybe a place ... or not
4. that stable's quite capable of having him ready - good e/w bet (Ladbrokes 33, betdaQ 83 (Betfair down at present.)
?
 
According to Pete. Hve missed out on the fixed brush hurdle race he won lat year to run in this will the horse the lost me my total pot all in LTO come godd . Must for a place at least. How can I not back him if he were to be entered.Ooops!
 
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