Horses to follow - Flat

gus said:
I have had a good look at Taqdeer's race yesterday and it looks seriously hot for a nine grand handicap. The first three all recorded times well ahead of their marks. The handicapper will bump them up to some tune but he can't weight them out of handicaps. I suspect connections may have bigger things in mind for Taqdeer and Prize Money but New Caledonia is likely to stay handicapping and he'll be of interest given that yesterday was his first run in ages and he was quite lightly-raced at two for a Johnston horse.
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Agreed - I too was quite taken with the way he knuckled down after being switched and then began to pull nicely clear
The route taken by Mahsoob last year shouldn't be out of the question.

Edit: taqdeer is a 3yo, Mahsoob was a 4yo! Nice prospect nonetheless
 
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Folkswood is up 8lbs for his impressive Newmarket win last Saturday, from 89 to 97. It's actually less than I expected and if connections choose to stay handicapping with him he is in no way weighted out of them. He was very strong at the finish at HQ which raised thoughts of stepping him up in trip but they're sticking at a mile for the time being which seems sensible given his breeding. He'd have an excellent chance in the Britannia if they took him to Royal Ascot.
 
The 7f 3yo h'cap at York today really looks one to have a good look at again
First 3 home look smart and the Jersey was mentioned as a possible target for the winner by John Gosden
4th home lagenda went hard up front so could be marked up as the front 3 all came from well off the pace.
 
Agree, very interesting race. The winner better than a handicapper. I liked the third best given the pull Spencer took to get him far side.
 
Euronymous said:
Agree, very interesting race. The winner better than a handicapper. I liked the third best given the pull Spencer took to get him far side.
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Yes, these early-season 3-y-o handicaps are hard to make money in but an excellent source of future winners.

Certainly wouldn't give up on Albernathy in view of the money for him. I don't think anyone had told Buick judging from the ride he gave the horse - held up out wide all the way on the slowest part of the track.
 
fonz said:
The 3.55 at Doncaster looks choc full of potential
No bet race as there's plenty unexposed 3yo's in with a shout but the race should hopefully be one to follow.
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The form of this race seems to be standing up to scrutiny so far with the 4th and 5th having won since and the 2nd coming 3rd in a listed race for fillies
The 3rd home My Amigo runs at Hamilton tonight, 5/2 last Night into 7/4 now.
 
Chester Street is declared for a Leicester handicap tomorrow and comes back from ten furlongs to a mile which should suit.

Nice to see signs yesterday that Roger Charlton is beginning to hit full stride.
 
Charlton also runs Blakeney Point on the same card. He went into my tracker after a good debut run at Goodwood.

I have a stack of 3yo handicappers in the old digital notebook but I seem to be hitting the crossbar most of the time.

After Midnight Macchiato was beaten at Newmarket I decided to go each way on these types as my selections are taking part in races with other progressive types. So yesterday I'm heavily involved in Carrington at Donny at 6/1. He lost a couple of lengths at the start when winning at Salisbury first time out and I figured, stupidly, that his trainer would maybe work on that tendency between races. One has to take the long term view on this but it is most frustrating to see your punting efforts compromised by incompetent humans.

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Euronymous said:
Charlton also runs Blakeney Point on the same card. He went into my tracker after a good debut run at Goodwood.
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Well done with Blakeney Point.

Chester Street was heavily-backed. I took 5/2 on Sunday afternoon and they never seem to win for me when I'm on at well above SP. He ran a decent enough race but never quite looked like winning. Definitely has a handicap in him, though.
 
fonz said:
The 7f 3yo h'cap at York today really looks one to have a good look at again
First 3 home look smart and the Jersey was mentioned as a possible target for the winner by John Gosden
4th home lagenda went hard up front so could be marked up as the front 3 all came from well off the pace.
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The official handicapper appears to have taken a surprisingly downbeat view of the race. Chief Whip, who finished second (of twenty), has entries at the weekend and he has been raised 3lbs, from 86 to 89.

This suggests that the winner, Castle Harbour, will have gone up about 6lbs and that the third horse home, Monteverdi, has probably been left on the same mark off which he ran.

I would have expected him, dealing with a reasonably valuable, big field, early season 3-y-o handicap in which there were four and a half lengths between first and fourth, to have reacted by hitting each of the first four considerably harder than he has. The second and third came from wide draws in a race in which horses drawn 1, 2, 3 and 4 all finished in the first seven home. They've each only had three runs and must still have improvement in them so I'm sticking Chief Whip and Monteverdi in my tracker (in addition to Albernathy for reasons already stated).
 
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gus said:
The official handicapper appears to have taken a surprisingly downbeat view of the race. Chief Whip, who finished second (of twenty), has entries at the weekend and he has been raised 3lbs, from 86 to 89.

This suggests that the winner, Castle Harbour, will have gone up about 6lbs and that the third horse home, Monteverdi, has probably been left on the same mark off which he ran.

I would have expected him, dealing with a reasonably valuable, big field, early season 3-y-o handicap in which there were four and a half lengths between first and fourth, to have reacted by hitting each of the first four considerably harder than he has. The second and third came from wide draws in a race in which horses drawn 1, 2, 3 and 4 all finished in the first seven home. They've each only had three runs and must still have improvement in them so I'm sticking Chief Whip and Monteverdi in my tracker (in addition to Albernathy for reasons already stated).
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I don't know if "likes" can be withdrawn but Euro and Fonz may wish to explore the possibility of doing so given that my post is complete cobblers.

The Post site yesterday definitely showed Chief Whip entered for two races at Haydock on Saturday with an OR of 89 compared with the 86 he ran off at York. However, on checking the Weekender this morning he's actually up 6lbs to 92. Castle Harbour's rise is a 12lbs one and Monteverdi's 2lbs. The cards on the Post's website have also been corrected.


My apologies. Makes me look an idiot but that's nothing new.
 
2lbs for Monteverdi is fine, he improved for the step up to 7f. Wasn't interested in CH as a tracker as he looks way better than a handicapper.
 
gus said:
I don't know if "likes" can be withdrawn but Euro and Fonz may wish to explore the possibility of doing so given that my post is complete cobblers.

The Post site yesterday definitely showed Chief Whip entered for two races at Haydock on Saturday with an OR of 89 compared with the 86 he ran off at York. However, on checking the Weekender this morning he's actually up 6lbs to 92. Castle Harbour's rise is a 12lbs one and Monteverdi's 2lbs. The cards on the Post's website have also been corrected.


My apologies. Makes me look an idiot but that's nothing new.
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Don't be daft, it's good to have people like yourself and Euro willing to discuss and share there opinions on such matters.
Back to the race and I see The 4th home Lagenda has actuall been dropped a 1lb and has no less than 4 entries over the coming days( two of them at Haydock on Saturday where I'm attending).
 
Chief Whip ran a cracker. Will go up again though.

Unfortunately that horse's presence in the Hannon yard may have prevented him running Steel of Madrid in the Silver Bowl. Instead he wins a pointless listed race and ruins his mark. Such is life.
 
Euronymous said:
Chief Whip ran a cracker. Will go up again though.

Unfortunately that horse's presence in the Hannon yard may have prevented him running Steel of Madrid in the Silver Bowl. Instead he wins a pointless listed race and ruins his mark. Such is life.
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yeah, was annoyed with that. Steel of Madrid ran a corker at Haydock a couple of weeks back , fancied him to take the 4/7 hotpot on there at Newmarket and was rewarded at 10/3, but mark will be shot to pieces now when could have had some more mileage outta him.

Backed Cheif Whip at haydock, how effing clear do the stewards want a case to be, beaten a head, imbalanced from his dead straight line 30 yards out by a (good) horse that had veered all over the course
 
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http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

I thought this race was as interesting as the 7f race at York that Castle Harbour won.

The 1st, 2nd and 4th all went into the tracker. Since it was run Banksea ran in a 10f event at Leicester on Monday where he wasn't
given an especially good ride by Moore. Ballard Down was similarly short yesterday (Banksea's sp was 7/4) at Wolves where to me he didn't pick up at all on the sand. I love it when short priced trackers get beat as it makes the price for their next outing - Ice Lord a perfect example of this....after his run behind Englishman on soft ground at Windsor I think I got 4s at Ascot where he was beaten fair and square on ground that was probably too fast (in any event I always forgive horses a bad run at that track as like York it can be a bit of a specialists type course) On Monday back at Windsor..good ground this time.. he was 7/1 on Sunday afternoon when prices came out, was available at 5s the morning of the race and started at 5/2. Pissed in.
 
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Eyecatcher alert!
Heatstroke in the last at Sandown tonight, a well bred sort for C Hills/Fitri Hay who was off
Since a maiden win in October '14
Held up out the back this evening and nursed into the race when into the straight making stealthy headway into 4th under a tender ride.
One to keep an eye on this summer.
 
I had money on Nisser in the 3-y-o sprint handicap at Haydock yesterday and watched the race with a gradual sinking feeling. Messed about at the start, struggled to get a clear passage as the race developed, going on very nicely at the finish without ever looking like winning, he can hardly go up much (if at all) in the weights as a result. I'll be very interested in him if he gets in that valuable race at York the Saturday before Royal Ascot.
 
gus said:
I had money on Nisser in the 3-y-o sprint handicap at Haydock yesterday and watched the race with a gradual sinking feeling. Messed about at the start, struggled to get a clear passage as the race developed, going on very nicely at the finish without ever looking like winning, he can hardly go up much (if at all) in the weights as a result. I'll be very interested in him if he gets in that valuable race at York the Saturday before Royal Ascot.
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I've had a look back and it doesn't look like he'll get in off a rating of 83 or so. Hannon will have to aim a bit lower for the time being but the horse has a good race in him.
 
The card at Haydock tomorrow is an interesting one.

Albernathy, mentioned on this thread previously by me, runs in a handicap in which he is reopposed by Eqleem who finished ahead of him at York last time out. Eqleem had a better draw that day than Albernathy who was heavily-backed in the morning but was then given a pretty negative ride by Buick and never put in the race.


It's no two-horse race. Aleko, third in that 17-runner handicap won by Taurean Star at Ascot last month, also runs and Cartageo, a winner at Ripon last week by six lengths, carries just a 6lb penalty and is bound to be well-in before his new mark kicks in on Saturday.


I'll go with Albernathy but with no great confidence.


Lagenda, fourth in Castle Harbour's York handicap (ahead of Eqleem and Albernathy) runs in the last and earlier on the card, the best-bred offspring of Frankel to race to date makes her debut in the 6f fillies' maiden. Fair Eva, trained by Roger Charlton, is a daughter of African Rose who won the G1 Haydock Sprint Cup a few years back, the time it was run at Donny. Charlton is very complimentary about her in Steve Taplin's book, unusually so for him.
 
Lagenda is one to follow but going up a furlong will suit him better I feel, hope cove went in my notebook after a good run at the Craven meeting and I fancy him to have too much toe for Lagenda and co here.
 
Albernathy ran too free. He's certainly up to winning off his mark but will need to settle better.

Fair Eva really made an impression.

Nisser missed the cut for the York race by some way and goes instead for the last at Goodwood tomorrow evening. He's 2/1 fav and he can pick this up on his way to better things. His Haydock run last time was full of promise for the future.
 
Nisser was beaten last week after getting quite badly messed about at the start. He goes again in the last at Newmarket today. He's up to 7f from 6f. On pedigree it might not suit but on style of running it's certainly worth a try.
 
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