Irish Flat Season 2016

BennyB said:
Shouldn't be. If that's the Derby winner I'll eat my face.
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Ruler Of The World won this race(I think) just getting up in the final 50yds
I wouldn't write him off, First and 2nd home look excellent prospects.
 
fonz said:
Ruler Of The World won this race(I think) just getting up in the final 50yds
I wouldn't write him off, First and 2nd home look excellent prospects.
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yes he did..his race was 3 seconds slower than the 10f listed race that day...us army today was just over 7 seconds slower

the split times will tell a further story
 
Wajeez was off the scale impressive, visually and sectionally. I rated him 109p last year which is very similar to what Golden Horn was. Sounds like we have similar calculators!
 
EC1 said:
yes he did..his race was 3 seconds slower than the 10f listed race that day...us army today was just over 7 seconds slower

the split times will tell a further story
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I've had to Tweet that. That's very interesting.
 
yes David...split time analysis...not liked much on here but i swear by it:)

when golden horn won fto...i got him at 118..wajeez 115..incredible FTO figures

just hope he can do it on quicker ground..a very exciting prospect
 
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You just had to love that horse today-you could see him learning as the race progressed.My idea of the most likely Derby winner at the moment -12/1 is a good price.
 
EC1 said:
yes David...split time analysis...not liked much on here but i swear by it:)

when golden horn won fto...i got him at 118..wajeez 115..incredible FTO figures

just hope he can do it on quicker ground..a very exciting prospect
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I can't find the exact quote but Gosden definitely said two or three weeks ago that he thinks Wajeez is highly dependent on getting soft ground if he's to show his best.
 
there is quiet an interesting benchmark test between when ruler of the world won the same maiden as US Army compared with the listed winner in both years

these aren't to the nearest millisecond but are close to show something interesting.

firstly ..the day ruler of the world won the 10f maiden..Parish hall rated 112 won the listed race

Parish hall time to 3 out = 98.22
Ruler of the world time to 3 out = 101.13

Parish hall 3 out to line = 36.41
Ruler of the world to line = 36.59

using that comparison as a benchmark..ROW has nearly run as fast from 3 out as a 112 horse after going 3 seconds slower up to 3 out. So its fair to say that if ROW had gone slower than the 3 seconds early he would have equalled or bettered a 112 older horse final 3f horse.

now this year

Zhukova time to 3 out = 103.8
UAR time to 3 out = 110.3

so its fair to say that UAR having gone 6.5 seconds slower than Zhukova..not the 3 that ROW did..UAR should be able to better Zhukova's last 3f time if he is as good as ROW

Zhukova time from 3 out = 40.57
UAR time from 3 out = 40.77

so even though UAR had a lot easier time early on compared to the older horse than ROW did in his older horse comparison..he hasn't beaten the older horse in the last 3f..in fact the difference is very similar to how ROW compared with PH...but ROW managed to do that time after using considerably more early energy than UAR did.
 
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EC1

Any concerns about the deterioration of the ground this year between the listed race and the maiden. Was good in 2012, so likely that the conditions were roughly on a par. Heavy ground, another hour of rain in between the 2 races - none of it points to producing conditions that were likely to see US Army Ranger in good light.

FWIW - I can see why people are picking holes in him, he's now generally single figures on the back of a maiden win that cannot be rated too highly - Timeform have him 95P - 90 bare, 5 extra - but I think he basically did all he could under the conditions and the way he was ridden.
 
davidjohnson said:
EC1

Any concerns about the deterioration of the ground this year between the listed race and the maiden. Was good in 2012, so likely that the conditions were roughly on a par. Heavy ground, another hour of rain in between the 2 races - none of it points to producing conditions that were likely to see US Army Ranger in good light.

FWIW - I can see why people are picking holes in him, he's now generally single figures on the back of a maiden win that cannot be rated too highly - Timeform have him 95P - 90 bare, 5 extra - but I think he basically did all he could under the conditions and the way he was ridden.
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i didn't realise it was raining during the meeting..is that reported somewhere?..i wouldn't have bothered had a iknown,.the RP results section didn't say raining
 
Wajeez hasn't been entered in the Dante. As promising as he is, I am pretty sure he won't be as his best until the second half of the season.
 
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EC1 said:
firstly ..the day ruler of the world won the 10f maiden..Parish hall rated 112 won the listed race

Parish hall time to 3 out = 98.22
Ruler of the world time to 3 out = 101.13

Parish hall 3 out to line = 36.41
Ruler of the world to line = 36.59

using that comparison as a benchmark..ROW has nearly run as fast from 3 out as a 112 horse after going 3 seconds slower up to 3 out. So its fair to say that if ROW had gone slower than the 3 seconds early he would have equalled or bettered a 112 older horse final 3f horse.
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What am I missing?

ROW was slower to 3f out and slower from 3f out to to the line. Surely having been slower to 3f out would have given ROW more chance of going faster in the last 3f? Sounds to me like ROW is just plain slower.

The other horse you mention sounds very interesting, though. Looks Derby/Leger material:

<center>[SIZE=-1]WAJEEZ
ped_i.gif
(IRE) ch. C, 2013 {16-b} DP = 0-0-9-1-2 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.42
[/SIZE]</center>

<tbody>
</tbody>


Only 16/1 best price, though. They can stick that right up their arrses at this stage.
 
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i think you totally missed the point DO..its the difference between each 3 yo to the older horse..UAR had a 3 seconds easier time early than ROW did compared to the older winner ..but only ran a similar difference than the older horse than ROW did late..more petrol saved early should have meant UAR should have beat the older horse 3f late time..to be a similar type to ROW. As far as i know it didn't rain..but if it did..then just ignore it..most of the site will anyway. If you consider ROW slow for not beating the older horse later,,then you must think the same or worse of UAR who had an even easier early time

don't forgot you are comparing with a listed class older horse in each case..and they are carrying more than wfa..thats why i wanted a benchmark..to see if the 3yo could beat the older late time..hence used ROW

If it didn't rain ..and i seen nothing to suggest it did yet..then the comparison shows that UAR isn't as good as ROW was at this stage,,imo

Wajeez is very interesting..similar figure horse to Golden Horn FTO effort..very interesting sectional time.

If it acts on faster ground..which there are doubts about..will be quite something

check out the video..its visually smart as well as figures wise
 
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EC1 said:
i didn't realise it was raining during the meeting..is that reported somewhere?..i wouldn't have bothered had a iknown,.the RP results section didn't say raining
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We had lads at the meeting. There was no real rain between the two races. The damage to the ground was done at that stage.
 
I very probably am totally missing the point, EC1, which is why I keep asking questions. I want to understand it all better.

While I was looking back through the ROTW / PH lines, I noticed in ROTW's race the one he beat less than a length ran several times more without doing much before he finally got into the 100s in the latter part of the season. Surely he'd have been an absolute cert on the figures on each of those beaten runs?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I very probably am totally missing the point, EC1, which is why I keep asking questions. I want to understand it all better.

While I was looking back through the ROTW / PH lines, I noticed in ROTW's race the one he beat less than a length ran several times more without doing much before he finally got into the 100s in the latter part of the season. Surely he'd have been an absolute cert on the figures on each of those beaten runs?
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the immediate franking stuff has way too many variables to mean much to me. All i have done is compare a mdn winner with another..one was obviously a pretty good horse in that he was a Derby winner and the first two were clear of their field..manaplan might have had a headache for a race or two..no one knows what his immediate level represented after that race..hence..franking ain't a priority for me..he ended up being decent..so did the winner
 
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It's an interesting angle into the quality of the race EC, although I think it's fairly obvious that the front two from the maiden are going to be pretty smart. But Parish Hall and Ruler Of The World both had good ground conditions so neither should have been inconvenienced thus allowing for a decent benchmark comparison. Whereas yesterday's heavy ground would have been much more to the favor of the Fastnet Rock filly Zhukova than it would have been US Army Ranger.

Plus - probably again due to the ground - yesterday's winner was more sympathetically ridden that ROTW was on his debut.
 
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