Irish Flat Season 2016

gus said:
I've had a small bet on Idaho at 25/1 for Epsom. Plenty seem to think that they know which O'Brien's best Derby horse is and that horse is US Army Ranger. They might be right. But if you subscribe to the view that he's still in the process of finding out about his middle-distance colts then there's some mileage in looking at others from the stable. Betting and jockey bookings suggest Idaho wasn't expected yesterday but he ran a fine race. With hindsight he did a lot of running round the outside turning in but it was an impressive move and he looked all over the winner until Harzand (race-fit) reeled him in. The pair were miles clear and the time was good. Smullen's comments afterwards raised doubts about the winner handling Epsom, although Weld clearly disagrees. Whether Harzand runs or not I could see Idaho, better for the run, turning it round on decent ground at Epsom.

Of course, he could go Chantilly instead but that's in the price, for me.
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I liked Idaho as well. One thing to note looking at the sectional times is that they went notably hard in the Ballysax given the atrocious ground (I actually think the early pace may have been average, but they wound it up some way out). In that sense, Idaho probably made ground at a point when the pace was still relatively high, whereas it may actually have been a blessing in disguise for Smullen to get cut off when he did. I liked Harzand, but he looks a Leger horse to my eye (Smullen suggested as much after the race).

Bhutan was impressive enough as well, without striking me as one that will operate at the top level. I could see them pitching him at something like the Lingfield Derby Trial or Chester Vase next up, and him turning out a Group 2 horse. Could be wrong though.
 
Aasheq, second to US Army Ranger last time out, failed to frank the form at Navan today but backers of the O'Brien colt for Epsom can take comfort from the fact that Aasheq's run was surely too bad to be true.

At around 5/1 for the Derby, however, US Army Ranger looks very short indeed. None of the Guineas has been run yet and every other trial is still ahead of us. I'm not a layer - I lack the temperament for it - but if I was I'd be sorely tempted to do so at 5.7 on Betfair at the moment.
 
gus said:
Aasheq, second to US Army Ranger last time out, failed to frank the form at Navan today but backers of the O'Brien colt for Epsom can take comfort from the fact that Aasheq's run was surely too bad to be true.

At around 5/1 for the Derby, however, US Army Ranger looks very short indeed. None of the Guineas has been run yet and every other trial is still ahead of us. I'm not a layer - I lack the temperament for it - but if I was I'd be sorely tempted to do so at 5.7 on Betfair at the moment.
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All the races were a farce today at Navan with a huge rail bias. Having said that I just don't think Aasheq is that good. He was drilled to win FTO and there was wasn't a lot to work with. On the flip side this was the winners first proper run. Aasheq will be 20lbs higher rated at the end of the season. He's a Group horse, Welds isn't.

US Army Ranger is a max lay at 5.7.
 
APOB chalks up a 2yo winner at Navan: you have to admire him. Newmarket's trainers rarely get a decent 2yo out before July. Even remember George Washington making his debut at Newmarket in early May, and finishing 3rd. He didn't develop too badly.
 
Until we see the 3rd and 4th horses run from us navy ranger's maiden we won't know if the form amounts to anything. They are entered in maiden races this week so hopefully will see them running. Aasheq did look primed for his debut and didn't seem to improve in his second. That doesn't mean us navy ranger isn't a decent horse though. Bhutan look very good to me and won easily in what looked a decent maiden. The trials will be quickly upon us and with the number of promising 3yos they have at ballydoyle I doubt they are entirely sure of the pecking order. Now is the time to take a price if you fancy one as you can be sure the price will tumble if they scoot up in a trial.
 
Edinahib said:
Until we see the 3rd and 4th horses run from us navy ranger's maiden we won't know if the form amounts to anything. They are entered in maiden races this week so hopefully will see them running. Aasheq did look primed for his debut and didn't seem to improve in his second. That doesn't mean us navy ranger isn't a decent horse though. Bhutan look very good to me and won easily in what looked a decent maiden. The trials will be quickly upon us and with the number of promising 3yos they have at ballydoyle I doubt they are entirely sure of the pecking order. Now is the time to take a price if you fancy one as you can be sure the price will tumble if they scoot up in a trial.
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Nothing we will see from the 3rd and 4th will stop US Army Ranger being a 90 horse. We'll know nothing until Chester but I'll be shocked if he's their best Derby hope.
 
Decent card at the Curragh today.

Awtaad was seriously impressive first time out and gets 3lbs in the Tetrarch from Blue De Vega who makes his seasonal reappearance. I'd favour Awtaad today.

Similar situation in the Mooresbridge. Found has had a run and Fascinating Rock hasn't. That might just give Found the edge this afternoon.
 
SlimChance said:
All the races were a farce today at Navan with a huge rail bias.
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I'm inclined to agree with that and Pretty Perfect, who won from the front on the rail that day, is a clear second favourite for the Group 3 at Naas tonight. I'm quite keen to take her on. Zhukova is the obvious one but she looks pretty short to me and I'm inclined to go with Glamorous Approach and Queen Blossom, both of them behind Pretty Perfect in that Navan race. Queen Blossom quite impressed me first time out and, in addition to the rail bias last time, her trainer said she was "heavily in season". Glamorous Approach raced closer to the pace at Navan but was always wider than Pretty Perfect and was the only one to give her any sort of race.
 
Well, apart from opposing Pretty Perfect I couldn't have got that more wrong.

Zhukova looks tremendous on soft ground. She's being aimed at the 12f race for fillies and mares on Champions Day and she'd take some beating if she got her surface.
 
Originally Posted by edgt View Post
Exciting winner of 3yo maiden at Cork today Harzand by Sea The Stars ex Hazariya, a bull of a horse who ran away with the race on desperate ground.
Has Derby and Irish Derby entries.
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SlimChance said:
I think it was an average maiden and the ground exaggerated the winning margin some what but 66/1 for the Derby in a non vintage year seems insane.
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Off to **** myself off a bridge...
 
LBM said:
I disagree Gus. I think with better ground and more distance Harzand would always finish ahead of Idaho. He has been given an OR of 110 and I think he will finally run at Epsom. 25/1 e/w has been taken. There are many horses I don't fancy for the Derby at the top of most bookies list for the race. Looking forward to how the rest of the preps pan out.
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Really rollercoster of emotions involved in this bet during the past 2 months. Massive day at the office today.
 
LBM said:
Really rollercoster of emotions involved in this bet during the past 2 months. Massive day at the office today.
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Aye. Well done, my friend. Ante-post betting can be a wild ride but it's hugely satisfying when one comes off.

Don't spend it all at once.
 
EC1 said:
yes David...split time analysis...not liked much on here but i swear by it:)

when golden horn won fto...i got him at 118..wajeez 115..incredible FTO figures

just hope he can do it on quicker ground..a very exciting prospect
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Wajeez is declared to run at Hamilton on Friday evening in a Listed race over 11f.
 
Sufoof ran a very encouraging race at Leopardstown tonight, stepped up in trip to 7f and given a lenient looking mark of 73 after a string of maidens over 5f since March.
Plenty of cover and quick ground( no guarantee at the moment) should see her prevail soon.
 
Architecture's 2nd to Minding is the best form in the race and. with her being supplemented and Frankie shipped to ride, it suggests she's over whatever her problem was at Ascot. Looks an ew bet to nothing at current odds.
 
Velveteen has been in my tracker as a sure maiden winner ever since her debut at Naas when she went off favourite and ran with plenty of promise. She goes in the first at the Curragh today and I've had a bit on but nowhere near as much as I would have had on if she'd been running in a smaller field with a better draw.
 
Good luck

Landline went in my book after a 3rd behind Caravaggio in April, The extra furlong wont do him any harm and Brendan Duke knows the time of day with his 2yo handicappers.
 
Douglas MacArthur impressed at Leopardstown tonight in the mile maiden and is now disputing favouritism for next year's Derby. I loved the comments from his trainer. The almost subliminal message I'm picking up is "engine."

Trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "He is a colt with a big engine and we're very happy with that. The reason we let him roll on was because he was so green last time and needed to learn.
"His mind is still sleeping but we knew he had a massive engine. We knew he had a big engine as he was doing very good things at home. We were taken a little aback by how green he was the first day.
"We'll look at the Beresford or the Golden Fleece for him. I'd like to give him a little bit of time. He's still very babyish."
Douglas Macarthur possesses a largely middle-distance pedigree, but was also introduced into the market for the 2017 Qipco 2,000 Guineas, for which he is priced between 16-1 and 33-1.
 
Fillies maiden in Galway tomorrow evening looks a pretty hot affair as usual. The Weld filly is a typical DK Galway 2yo special and some very nice unraced Coolmore pedigress, but I think 12's is good value about the Oxx filly Magen's Moon.

Thought she was very promising on her debut at Naas, and the step up to 7f should clearly bring about improvement on that evidence, as well as going by her pedigree. That will do for me.
 
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