Irish Guineas Weekend

SlimChance said:
Yeah I suppose he has the superior form in the book. Have you a view on the race? Looks like Wrote will run.
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Hermival (116p) run on the favoured side at newmarket but has scope

Born To sea (107), disappoiting at newmarket and deserted by Murtagh , a negative.


Crusade (115p), not ideal first time out in the season.

Daddy Longlegs (113, 116a) , Dubai and USA trips a negative and not good enough.


Nephrite (112+) , non trier first time out, doubtful stayer.


Paris Hall (117p), good form last season, the ground excuses for not running this year sounds strange. Some doubts.


Power (118) stinker in the Guineas, some doubts.


Reply (114), needs firm ground and 6f, no prep a negative and entries on other races this weekend.


Takar (110p), all form on soft ground, noyt a bad horse but not a gr1 for the moment.


Trumpet Major (119), the most likely winner, good run in the Guineas and Craven and will be fully fit.


Wrote (113), not good enough.


Not sure to have a bet
but if force to choose in order:
Trumpet
Hermival
Paris Hall
 
Thanks Suny. I'm playing around with the idea of an e/w saver on Trumpet Major at 7/1.


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Suny, Murtagh hasn't deserted Born to Sea. He is the Aga Khan's retained jockey in Ireland so would not have had a choice.
 
I don't believe Hermival was favoured by the draw at Newmarket and maybe even have been inconvenienced by racing with poorer horses on his side. I cannot have Parish Hall at all despite the love in on here for him. Bolger has had over 100 runners so far this year and he hasn't been one of them. His strike rate so far this year is that of a third tier trainer and I wouldn't believe the radio in his house never mind "the best he's ever had" bullshit. PH's 2yo career was very very average excluding the Dewhurst and even that win may look ordinary enough as this season progresses.Hermival for me.
 
Aragorn said:
Suny, Murtagh hasn't deserted Born to Sea. He is the Aga Khan's retained jockey in Ireland so would not have had a choice.
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With Sea The Stars standing in Giltown if BTS had a better chance in the Irish Guineas, aga would leave Murtagh to ride the other horse.
 
2000 Guineas: Final Decs

1 6 Alkazim(95) (DWachman) . 9,00
2 1 Born To Sea(105) (JMOxx) PJSmullen(B) 9,00
3 7 Daddy Long Legs (USA)(117) (APO'Brien) . 9,00
4 2 Foxtrot Romeo (BSmart (in GB)) NGMcCullagh 9,00
5 9 Hermival (MDelzangles (in FR)) . 9,00
6 4 Parish Hall(116) (JSBolger) KJManning 9,00
7 3 Power (GB)(114) (APO'Brien) . 9,00
8 5 Reply(109) (APO'Brien) . 9,00
9 10 Takar(105) (JMOxx) JPMurtagh(T) 9,00
10 8 Trumpet Major (RHannon (in GB)) RHughes 9,00
11 11 Wrote(112) (APO'Brien) . 9,00
 
I've been told Trumpet Major did a nice piece of work during the week and we're all on e/way at 7/1 - hopeful more than confident I think.
 
It's not a Parish Hall love in per se. When the prices were released he was the obvious bet @ 6/1 given he held Trumpet Major and Power on the formbook and would be suited by the likely going. Given all seven of the O'Brien entries looked much of a muchness you really only had Hermival and Takar to consider, neither of whom I would want to back.


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Who knows he never ran. If your using the Dewhurst form then then answer is 4th.

Beats TM 1 length give or take a nose and head in the Dewhurst and Hermival beats TM 1 1/4 in Guineas.

Having said thisI think its hard to use a piece of form for a horse from last year using another. It is incredibly hard to quantify how much Trumpet Major has improved this year or how much Parish Hall may have been favoured in the Dewhurst by having the stands side rail.
 
The thing with Trumpet Major is that his form is solid but unlike Canford Cliffs, you could not say he was unlucky at Newmarket. I'd be dissapointed there's not one better than him on Saturday and it's most likely to be Parish Hall.
 
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