That far side strip along the rail was a significant advantage in both Guineas. Hermival is no doubt decent but a little flattered I'd say. And HQ in the 1,000 stole a march and is very flattered.
Irish Guineas Weekend
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
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That far side strip along the rail was a significant advantage in both Guineas. Hermival is no doubt decent but a little flattered I'd say. And HQ in the 1,000 stole a march and is very flattered.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
TM is the danger to Parish Hall (although you can't rule out an inexplicable O'Brien win I suppose)
Hermival was flattered by his placing at Newmarket. He raced on better ground and Abtaal was pretty much his pacemaker.
Hermival was flattered by his placing at Newmarket. He raced on better ground and Abtaal was pretty much his pacemaker.
Yeah can agree with that but Hermival beat him fair and square and like I said in an earlier post I'm sure the horse was inconvenienced to be where he was in that race. I also have this feeling Jim could be using this as a prep for a weeks time always said Parish Hall was a Derby horse so strange to rock up in Irish.
As for being the best horse he has had lmfao, I take it he needs another few million off the Sheik.
As for being the best horse he has had lmfao, I take it he needs another few million off the Sheik.
uncle goober
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This is nonsense
How can anyone state with such authority that racing against the far rail in both Guineas gave an advantage to those horses? Where is the evidence?
For a start, nothing raced against the far rail in the 1000, Homecoming Queen led the pack along way off the rail and only hung across to the fence at the furlong pole when the race was already in safe keeping.
The evidence is in the TurfTrax going analysis, which is a long way from nonsense.
Extremes of going tend to throw up very dodgy results on the Rowley mile (which is why they occasionally rate the two sides as separate races). If you believe HQ is a nine length better filly than her field good luck to you. She'll struggle to confirm the form she has shown here.
She might well win suny. At the price she is she is strongly expected to. However, I won't be surprised if she's beaten and have taken her on. The runner up in the Guineas has been out and finished third in a Listed race. Something like that could happen here.
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but she doesnt need to be 9 lengths better to win again
I think she had her race and maybe run on better ground than others but even though she was still the best of the field in the day and by a long margin and quite possibly the best of the field over a mile.
I think she had her race and maybe run on better ground than others but even though she was still the best of the field in the day and by a long margin and quite possibly the best of the field over a mile.
I agree she doesn't need to be nine lengths better which is fortunate as she's not. She is so flattered by the 1,000 Guineas result that any talk of winning distance is redundant. If she wins a neck she'll have done well in my book.
uncle goober
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Go back to my original post. No horses in the 1000 Guineas raced up the supposed faster far rail strip. They came up the centre, miles off the far side, and the winner hung that way in the closing stages when the race was won.
There was no separate race. Re the 2000 turftrax figures, fair enough.
the runner up was beaten in a listed where I think the first 2 are good fillies
The Fugue has won the Musidora
channons fillie won a listed at york
the time of the race looked quite good
the form is going well at the moment, and is very unlikely if not impossible that in a Guineas at Newmarket a field of 17 and 16 running a stone behind their best.
I could be wrong but at the moment she is the best fillie over a mile in Europe.
The Fugue has won the Musidora
channons fillie won a listed at york
the time of the race looked quite good
the form is going well at the moment, and is very unlikely if not impossible that in a Guineas at Newmarket a field of 17 and 16 running a stone behind their best.
I could be wrong but at the moment she is the best fillie over a mile in Europe.
Not really fair enough no.
That whole side of the course was favoured and particularly the strip by the rail on the far side. Although they came up the middle she was always over to that side. The others were happy to let her bowl along and paid the price. Ryan Moore took her right over to the far rail for the final stages and the others were unable to get back at her because of it. As opposed to stringing her field out in the style of Frankel there were a wall of horses closing all to late, which strongly suggests to me the form is wrong.
Zenyatta
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Was there not a wall of horses from which she was going further clear?
I thought that is what the sectionals told us.
I'd say Beauty Parlour is miles better than her for example. I also expect several of those behind her in the Guineas to prove better and certainly Maybe.
HQ has got a good result but she's nicked the race. She got an RPR of 121 for the win which is fine, but I'd be surprised if several don't better that performance.
She had that faster strip by then. The others left their charge too late. It's very suspect form.
before the classics I would have Beauty Parlour well ahead but teh form is not working so well and could need longer distance.
My figures at the moment are:
Beauty Parlour 117p
Homecoming 121+? but would not be surprised to see she is better than this, at the moment I am going conservative for her.
uncle goober
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Your reading off this race is laughable.
You can watch it again on youtube if you like.
Now you say its not the strip by the far rail, which no horses raced up that was favoured, but the whole of that half of the track. Then Moore took her over there on purpose and the others left it too late.
She was already clear, then she hung right handed. Not an intentional move and there was no too-late charge from anyone else.
The ground created extended distances of course, but there was no utilisation of a speedy strip intentionally or otherwise.
I'll break it down for you... The strip on the far side was markedly better, but it was also better in general as you moved from stand's side to far side. In addition to this she stole a march on the others. So she surprised her field and this was compounded by the faster going in the final stages.
I don't really give a toss if you find this "laughable" or not. It's what I believe.
I've backed Parish Hall and La Collina in each-way singles and an each-way double and am expecting a return. I hope you do as well from whatever you decide to do. At least I put my thoughts up on this forum and contribute a great deal more than some others. Right or wrong we'll find out in due course.
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There were no "extremes of going". Turftrax showed a difference of less than 2% across the whole course.
Agree she'll struggle to confirm the form, but the ground will be faster on Sunday, and she won't be gifted an easy lead.
...fair enough. I'm taking the view that she's flattered and we will see little improvement. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw no progress from HQ but am expecting a good deal of progress from the others. I'm in no doubt that Beauty Parlour is a significantly better filly.
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
What I'm interested in is how you decide to go about placing your bets in this Market?
The field is incredibly poor and I don't get intentions behind going EW at 6/1 and I'm very much in the camp of SlimChance that Parish Hall is a win bet - he'll either take this by 2 or 3 lengths or come midfield.
As for La Collina, not quite sure what you've seen in that either.
The field is incredibly poor and I don't get intentions behind going EW at 6/1 and I'm very much in the camp of SlimChance that Parish Hall is a win bet - he'll either take this by 2 or 3 lengths or come midfield.
As for La Collina, not quite sure what you've seen in that either.
I said whenever there are extremes of going. I was thinking of when it has been particularly soft or fast. I had ROG's Guineas in mind, when Hawk Wing was rated higher for finishing runner-up.
Nevertheless the going difference would have played it's part this year in addition to other variables.
Which is why I'm opposing her in a nutshell.
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I'm expecting both to be placed with the possibility of either or both winning... which is why I have backed them each-way. I'll weight these bets toward win or place as I see fit on the day.