ISIS...Islamic State Victims

You'd like to think the Turkish Army would crush them......though why wait for invasion when you can invade them to avoid one?
 
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harry said:
Has the Turkish army ever been tested? Would they run?
900 km of borders to police too?

Quite interesting article re Turkey http://goo.gl/Yi7DM7
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They have 3500+ tanks and a standing Army of 400,000 front-line personnel.

They could clearly make a huge difference, especially if supported by the remnants of the Iraqi Army, plus troops from the Kurdish Peshmerga and Shia militias.

The only surprise is that they haven't already piled-in.
 
1: Membership of the EU
2: The 2024 Olympics for Istanbul
3: Unconditional qualification for the final rounds of Eurovision
 
G-G said:
On a radio report today, Turkey put forward three 'conditions' to Western countries, which if met, then they may become involved.
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The report I read on Turkey's conditions for crossing the border to tackle IS, are:

No-fly buffer zone along border (presumably to mitigate against friendly-fire incidents).
No heavy weapons to be given to Peshmerga (presumably because aligned groups are defined as terrorists by Ankara)
No liberated land to be handed to Syrian Army (presumably because they want Assad out).
 
Friendly fire won't be the issue

The Turks have already had an A4 shot down by Syrian surface to air about 18 months ago. If the Turks cross the border they're probably conscious that the Syrian airforce might be ordered to view them as hostile invaders. In truth the Turks fly F16's and would make light work of the Syrian airforce, but I can see that they wouldn't need it as an additional distraction

Since being rebuffed by Europe (well Greece and Germany) the Turks have been looking for an expanded regional role and they seem to be staking out a territorial gain here.

Interestingly enough, we seem have discussed this possibility on the third page of this thread back in mid August.

It's just that what often appears to be the easiest and most short term convenient answer in the middle east (and the Turks taking the fight would be) often turns out to be a longer term problem.

Syria is an artificially frontiered creation anyway. What happens if it is carved up or partitioned and then Turks move south onto where? Can anyone guess what the new borders might look like
 
If the Turks have territorial expansion in mind, the waiting game is hardly the tactic to deliver it. A gung-ho rattle across the frontier; with the coalition having your back free-of-charge, would be the way to go about it. The circumspection must be down to something else - perhaps even the assurances being reported above.

As for artificially-created Syrian frontiers, you'll find this is consistent with every other country on the planet. They are as old as civilisation itself, but it's an interesting question regardless.

My view is that the Turks are probably motivated by a mixture of things;

Reducing/removing the IS threat and securing the border.
Assuring that the Kurdish rebels are not armed to an extent where they would fight for a homeland within the Turkish sovereign territory.
Assuring that Assad is not allowed to take advantage, and strengthen his position.
Placing themselves front-and-centre of the conflict, increasing their regional influence, and giving them a major bargaining-chip in negotiations with the EU, NATO and indirectly with Russia and China.

Anything else is a bonus.
 
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Grasshopper said:
If the Turks have territorial expansion in mind, the waiting game is hardly the tactic to deliver it. A gung-ho rattle across the frontier; with the coalition having your back free-of-charge, would be the way to go about it.
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Not necessarily.

The way to go about it would be to get an agreement guaranteed by the US and underwritten by NATO (the latter of which they'd have) that you can keep the fruits of your gain... then you can rattle across the border, who is to say that within a week they won't be doing just that? Waiting another few days might be the smart play in the name of brinksmanship, and especially since you're the only credible force in that part of Syria able to throw IS back

There is something else that Turkey needs to balance, and that's the deteriorating civil picture as Kurds are starting to protest. It's worth remembering that Erdogan has issues elsewhere domestically, but he needs to balance this with mobilisation and deployment.

You've got about 600 miles of frontier here much of which isn't particularly well defended. A Turkish advance in one sector could easily precipitate an IS advance in another. IS would make light work of border villages and could easily be killing a not insubstantial number of civilian Turks unless there's a deep second and third rank in position to repel incurssions. It takes time to get this in place, even in a country that does national serviced
 
That strategy only works up until such time as IS are waving visas under the noses of your border guards.

The Turks know there isn't the time for too much clever-clever - IS are far too close for that lark - and a more pragmatic approach is much the more likely scenario, imv.

Besides, the Turks know that any permanent encroachment into Syria and/or Iraq, would be viewed dimly by both Washington and Moscow - not to say Tehran and Riyahd too. And there's limited upside anyway. After defeating IS, they would merely find themselves in protracted conflict with one and/or other of Syria and Iraq, whilst at the same time, burning their bridges with all the players above (and likely more by proxy).

For what? A strip of desert that increases their Kurdish problem, rather than reduce it?

No chance.
 
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Edrogans stand off reminds me a little bit of the Warsaw uprising.

Poland has of course been partitioned and removed from the map periodically throughout history, what legitimacy does modern Syria have?.

Aleppo used to be an ancient soverign state, but what if Turkey agreed to police the region and act as bulwark against Iran?

They might concievable redraw something that recognises a Kurdish state, reinstates Aleppo and wipes Syria out as part of a greater Ottoman empire. After all Yugoslavia was whittled down to nothing. I don't think it'll happen either, but Turkey is one of the most western looking muslim states and at one level the west might welcome its encroachment nearer to Iraq and Iran. Syria doesn't have massive oil wealth, but it still has wells that Turkey doesn't
 
Grasshopper said:
That strategy only works up until such time as IS are waving visas under the noses of your border guards.

The Turks know there isn't the time for too much clever-clever - IS are far too close for that lark - and a more pragmatic approach is much the more likely scenario, imv.

Besides, the Turks know that any permanent encroachment into Syria and/or Iraq, would be viewed dimly by both Washington and Moscow - not to say Tehran and Riyahd too. And there's limited upside anyway. After defeating IS, they would merely find themselves in protracted conflict with one and/or other of Syria and Iraq, whilst at the same time, burning their bridges with all the players above (and likely more by proxy).

For what? A strip of desert that increases their Kurdish problem, rather than reduce it?

No chance.
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What do you think is IS's strategy?

Everyone is waiting for an army to wipe them out, yet they keep on advancing and gaining ground, seem to be PR savvy and attracting followers.

They don't look like sitting ducks to me!
 
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Grasshopper said:
Fair balls to them......though it would be nice if they were given a hand.
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First reaction was to cry at the billions of dollars wasted training the Iraqi army on how to run away.

I think you'd be slightly suspicious of the photos in truth given that the fighting is supposed to be in the built up area. OK I suppose some kind of gravel berm could be found somewhere, but given that the photographer is standing in clear view of any IS sniper you'd have to think they might have been staged a little bit, or that this isn't the immediate frontline. Having said that, there's no harm in doing just that, propoganda is all fair in war. The first old woman would likely dislocate her arm if she fired the AK47 from that position too

How is Cameron's aerobatics display team getting on. Haven't heard any updates recently about the number of fridge freezers they've successfully bombed
 
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why this obsession with Cameron (and Hague)? Its starting to make you points sound a bit like a personal obsession

As i said before, why not direct some of this ire at countries that contribute nothing
 
clivex said:
why this obsession with Cameron (and Hague)? Its starting to make you points sound a bit like a personal obsession

As i said before, why not direct some of this ire at countries that contribute nothing
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I endorse this statement.

Warbler, the apparent need to tie everything back to the Tories, dilutes what has otherwise been a useful contribution to the thread. It would serve you better to give it a rest with that lark, imo.
 
To be honest, I get completely pissed off watching our extremely well paid politicians and the army of very well paid advisors and civil servants behind them, making complete arses of themselves through the number of catastrophic errors of judgement they make, and then sanctimoniously trying to con us into believing they know best, and in the worst case scenario (Hague) telling bare faced lies that our right wing media (I include the BBC) let them get away with. I could cope with one error, perhaps even two, but everything they ever do in this theatre is a strategic mistake

How many times have you watched a football match and found yourself saying i could do better? Well in this case I bloody well could. Had they adopted Presdient Warblers policies of the last decade we wouldn't have a civil war in Libya where criminals are fighting terrorists for control of a country. We wouldn't have ISIS, and approximately 250,000 people killed as a result of our stupid politicians would be alive today. The Iraq body count data alone is greater than that which Saddam got through pro rata

Guess what, we'd have still killed OBL and severely degraded AQ too

It's probably time to give this thread a break to be honest. It's pretty well exhausted and has no where to go so far as I can see.

Cameron can carry on playing at Tornados, won't make any difference. Sure the British body politik can bask in a self regarding warm glow of feeling that they're good global citizens, but until they do something substantive IS will continue to grow. The problem is the UK is so degraded they can't do anything, something which if you read between the lines of Cameron's latest trip to Afghanistan last week he seems to be acknowledging. When addressing the troops there he seemed to be preparing them for a return home to defend our own streets. If he's got any strategic sense (which we know he hasn't) he'd secretly be exploring the reintroduction of national service and the selective training in weapons handling of civilians with clandestine organisational structures being drawn up. Your saw how quickly a mob in London 3 or 4 years ago overan the police for a few days. Imagine what would happen if they turned up with guns aka Mumbai or a Kenyan shopping mall

The only people who can do anything here who might be prepared to do so in the immediate foreseeable future are the American's. Britain keeps tell us what influence they have in Washington, well perhaps they lost that when this current government sold them a pig in a poke over Libya

Until the American's are able to reach out to the Chinese and the Russians and get the serious players on side, this is just going to bleed unless the American's are prepared to fully commit themselves again

End of story
 
If he's got any strategic sense (which we know he hasn't) he'd secretly be exploring the reintroduction of national service and the selective training in weapons handling of civilians with clandestine organisational structures being drawn up.
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Thank god he hasnt got any "strategic sense" is all i can say
 
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