Jockey's You Feel Confident Backing

  • Thread starter Thread starter useful
  • Start date Start date
This is what I posted in February last year after the race Aran Concerto won at Leopardstown, his final run before Cheltenham

I must admit to being distinctly underwhelmed by Aran Concerto at the weekend.
Pop round, rivals taken out by wayward horse two out, quicken up a bit, win cosy. so what.

Whilst I havent thought about this race with a view to selecting either a possible winner or alternative to AC, I suspect I shall be looking elsewhere nearer the time as I fail to see what the fuss is about.

Please dont go all Irish on me, just saying that at the moment, I dont 'get' him.
Click to expand...

He won some poorly contested races nicely, was overhyped through no fault of his own, and when thrown into a competitive race at Cheltenham was found to be not upto much, though a decent horse who might come on for the experience.
 
On AC, i thought his least impressive performance was in the Deloitte. I had him backed long before then, and those who know me know that I wasnt all that confident leading up to the festival. Meades are probably better before Christmas. But he didnt run any sort of race in the Sun Alliance hurdle,. I'm not sure the jockey change helped but he never ran or jumped with any fluency then.

The overhyped thing grates with me. It was clear that Meade felt he had the best potential chaser on his hands that he ever had. (He hasnt had that many - Harbour Pilot probably being the best) He was too big for hurdles but had (and hopefully still has) a huge engine. His earlier form was very good, and Catch Me didnt leave the Irish form down too badly in the SAH itself.

I do hope he comes back to the track with something like the same ability.
 
Yes, he was probably never going because the race represented more than the heavy-ground-hacks that had been his races up to that point. Better ground, faster pace, tougher oppostion that werent stopping, it was all too much. He still ran an Ok race considering, it just not what many were expecting. As for the hype, well that seemed to be non stop Garney and he was repeatedly put up as a festival banker by many! ( As Detroit City was for me!)
 
Garney, why does the "hype" accusation grate?

It wasn't the first time Meade did this. He did precisely the same with Sweet Wake, and I took issue with Dave Duggan by email on ATR over his own ridiculous performances in saying Sweet Wake only needed to turn up at Cheltenham to win.

I think trainers are better served letting their horses do the talking on the track.

In retrospect the horse (AC that is) didn't actually run that bad a race - his RPR of 143 slightly better than that achieved the previous time out, and he finished in front of a number of fair yardsticks.

In the final analysis I don't think he (AC) is actually that good, and in general I think Meade is not unlike some of the UK's Northern Based trainers (eg Richards, Lungo of old) in that his horses run up sequences in their own back yard, in soft races, only to come unstuck when pitched into the championship races.
 
Meade knows that he made a mistake saying what he did about Aran Concerto. I think he believed it when he said it, and it was misquoted as that he was unbeatable etc. He was potentially the best horse that he ever trained. The people who were putting him up as a banker were as misguided. It is the journalists more than the connections that seem to hype these horses. I remember SW maiden win, after which Alaistair Down was crowing that he had seen the supreme novices winner. You mention David Duggan. After Pomme Tiepy's win at leop last week, duggan said that she was his banker for the festival, eventhough he couldnt name which race she was going to contest. How many journalists would you actually respect and not to talk in platitudes/bullshit.

Aran Concerto was well below form in the SAH, never travelled, and it may well have been the better ground that found him out. But to me, he never travelled and further evidence of Meade's shortcomings when it comes to the festival. But AC was always going to be a chaser, I was surprised he did so well as a hurdler.

Think the irish races like the northern races is completely wrong. They may be run at a false pace but the average iirsh novice has greater strength in depth than the average english novice, and even more so than those in the north.
 
Useful, without denying that with the style in which Carberry rides he can look to have less horse underneath him than it appears (not necessarily a bad thing though actually, especially for a certain type of horse who needs kidding along) I really cannot have any part of Harchibald being used as evidence to back this up. The horse has to be ridden in that way - once he hits the front he stops; end of matter.

I also cannot have any part of a theory that Carberry is "losing his bottle" - c'mon, the guy has no fear!! So he may have dropped his jerks a little - that doesn't mean a thing. People like Carberry will never lose their bottle as they simply aren't programmed that way - the man is bit of a loon in fact and if anything has too much bottle [if there is such a thing!]!
 
I feel that in recent times he appears to shirk going for the big one at the final flight or fence, and I have attributed this to his very high incidence of injuries over the past two to three seasons. This is particlarly noticeable/of most negative effect, when riding at the small, tight rural Irish tracks, where the run ins are short.

I fear we will never know the truth about Harchibald because unless Carberry loses the ride (either through injury or an epiphany on the part of the Meade/Sharkey) he will never risk trying something different for reasons already stated.

Garney, I never said Irish Racing was comparable with UK racing in the north. I said that Meade reminds me of Nicky Richards (and his dad before him) and Len Lungo at the height of his Ashleybank patronage - they run up sequences with their promising novices only to get turned over at Cheltenham or Aintree.
 
you said that N Meade's horses win novices in soft races. We were talking about horses like Aran Concerto, who won his grade 1 in the Deloitte.

If you are comparing the Irish grade 1 novices like the Deloitte, the Royal Bond, the barry and sandra kelly, the leop christmas hurdles, to those races in the north of england, then you are wrong.

There can be the odd poor year, but they are races where taking the third or fourth horse home wiht you means you have a proper racehorse.
 
Garney you seem to be obsessively misquoting me.

I said:

"In the final analysis I don't think he (AC) is actually that good, and in general I think Meade is not unlike some of the UK's Northern Based trainers (eg Richards, Lungo of old) in that his horses run up sequences in their own back yard, in soft races, only to come unstuck when pitched into the championship races".

You can get "soft" renewals of Graded races anywhere, UK and Ireland. I think Meade's record vis "hyping" his horse a la Lungo, and getting turned over at Cheltenham and Aintree speaks for itself.
 
what lungo horses that were hyped got beaten? Has he even had a favourite at the festival? Has Nicky Richards? In a novice race? Another imagined bandwagon.

I do remember Barton and French Holly coming down from the north as hyped.

You are saying that "run up sequences in their own back yard, in soft races, only to come unstuck in the championship races."

We were talking about Aran Concerto, the latest high profile Meade failure. before running in the championship event, he won a grade 1 and a grade 1. "Running up a sequence in their own back yard, in soft races."
How am I misquoting you?

These were not soft races. Hardy Eustace and Newmill werent good enough to win a Deloitte. Catch Me, the third in the SAH, fell in last years Deloitte.
 
Can't have Carberry as losing his bottle either. Doesn't he usually spend his days off at this time of year risking his Festival participation by taking crazy risks out riding with his local hunt?
 
Ordinary novice events, especially hurdles and bumpers, are of a higher standard at Irish provincial tracks than their equivalents in any part of England.

The situation is not so clear cut for graded races. Because of the smaller horse population the standard in Ireland can fluctuate. At the moment the hurdlers are high class but not enough high class chasers.

Regarding the flat, Horse Racing Ireland recently pointed out that in 2007 all Irish pattern races met the full set of criteria regarding quality and strength. Apparently it was the first time this has happened anywhere.

To get back to the subject of the thread, I think the standard of jockeyship over jumps is very high, and I would be happy with any one of about a dozen jockeys on my horse - including Mr Carberry.

The situation is different on the flat at present, but one jockey not mentioned here but who ought to be is Fran Berry. In the last five seasons he has had 265 wins but only 194 seconds, and 202 3rds but only 146 4th place finishers. That to me suggests a jockey who makes a difference.
 
Aran Concerto ran in the wrong race at Cheltenham last year. Meade has admitted so since. His career is not over yet and time will tell.
 
Meade feels that being laid up off the strong pace in the 2 miler would have suited him. Cites the fact that stayers such as Kicking King, Best Mate etc have been able to cope in this race in recent years. Didn't say he'd have won...just felt that running the way he did in the 2m 5 furlongs race was all wrong.
 
Aran Concerto was undone by a number of factors at Cheltenham, chief among them ground that he had never encountered before (which saw his jumping go to pot).

His best form (at Navan last December in the Barry and Sandra Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle) is of a very decent standard.
 
I think it is to be expected Meade would make excuses, Aran Concerto's defeat coming only a year after the almost as stupidly hyped Sweet Wake.

I see nothing wrong with his Cheltenham run, he finished ahead of some decent yardsticks and simply came up against better horses from yards less inclined to hype and more intersted in letting their horses do the talking on the track.

He may well improve over fences, but that remains to be seen.
 
chrisbeekracing
Only one jockey I would never back and that is Ann Stokel.
Click to expand...



Ahhh ehhh! :(


To be honest, lost a fortune backing horses she's ridden :( got to be the worst jockey I've ever seen since watching my first race in 1957. Pawan would have won more than a dozen races with another jockey aboard.

Dane O'Neil is not far above her. :brows:
 
Welcome, Pawan...............Mrs. Stokell's riding ability is there for everyone to see.

If you haven't taken that into account when making your bets perhaps you should reconsider your approach.
 
Back
Top