Juvenile Hurdlers 2014/2015

oh coq...

I was just seeing if you were paying attention Martin. Clearly you weren't otherwise you'd have pointed out that error on the 23rd of July when it was first made ;)

Seriously though, I appreciate it if and when my mistakes are pointed out as it improves my posting as well as the standard of the thread :)

OK, it doesn't change too much... Replace "Paul Nicholls' runners with Auteuil form" with "Paul Nicholls' runners with French jumps form" and it still stands up. At that time of year, the difference between Enghien juvenile form and that of Auteuil is essentially negligible in any case.
 
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Cheers Colin

Backed from 5s into 3/1 so I'm hoping some of that was forum money!

He never really looked like losing did he despite being niggled for a while and missing the last. Apparently, big galloping tracks are his future "something like a Newbury". Given that all the rags were blown out at a very early stage gives the race a very satisfactory look.
 
I'm on a new shift pattern which is killing me at the moment and I didn't realise it was Wetherby tomorrow until I was half asleep so no preview I'm afraid. It looks between Dry Your Eyes and Final Countdown but I've not had a long enough look at it to warrant the race an arbitrary 1-2-3. Punchestown will be watched when it is watched.

It's All A Game 4/3 Diakali 1st Prix Alain du Briel (G1), Auteuil 2013 (4/4 Divapour 5/3 Olney Lad)
Barbara Elizabeth 2/1 Fair Along 2nd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2006
Sirpertan 3/2 Faasel 1st Anniversary 4-Y-O Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2005 (4/1 Shahrur 4/2 Hawadeth)
Relentless Pursuit 3/2 Elusive Dream 1st Mersey Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2008
Aramadyh 4/2 General Pershing 1st Rowland Meyrick Chase (141), Wetherby 1993
Dry Your Eyes .5 Bayan 3rd Coral Cup (G3,138), Cheltenham 2014
Worthy Spirit 4/1 Wing And A Prayer 1st Tolworth Hurdle (Listed), Sandown 1985 (4/4 Istimraar)
Fillydelphia 3/2 Mon Michel 1st Gerry Fielden (Listed, 116), Newbury 2007
Blue Talisman 1/1 Duroob 4th Handicap Hurdle (112), Galway 2010
Aldreth 2/1 Munif 1st Conditions Hurdle, Listowel 1997
Final Countdown 2/1 Pearl’s A Singer 3rd Mares Novice Hurdle (G3), Down Royal 2006
Two B's 1/1 Bollin Judith 1st Handicap Hurdle (112), Kempton 2013
Tortoise 2/1 Winged Lady 1st Selling Handicap Hurdle (75), Ludlow 2004

Sires
Blue Talisman - Alhaarth (6)
Aramadyh - Authorized (5)
Worthy Spirit - Shirocco (3)
Dry Your Eyes - Shamardal (2)
Tortoise - Multiplex (1)
It's All A Game - Sleeping Indian
Barbara Elizabeth - Sir Percy
Sirpertan - Sir Percy
Relentless Pursuit - Kodiac
Fillydelphia - Strategic Prince
Aldreth - Champs Elysees
Final Countdown - Selkirk
Two B's - Bollin Eric
 
Today’s juvenile hurdle at Ludlow is the first claimer of the season and it is a poor one at that. It was taken last season by subsequent Grade Two winner Ballyglasheen but there doesn’t look like there’s another one lurking in the midst of this field. Nevertheless, it is still a Juvenile Hurdle and despite it being a clusterfunk of a contest what with the bevvy of unreliable animals and their besprinkled weights, it’s worth having a crack at all the same.

Two of these horses come with official ratings and the one most favoured at the weights is Tim Vaughan’s wonderfully named filly. Nellie The Elegant won a maiden at Wolverhampton before disappointing in two subsequent starts. The switch to hurdling has sparked something of a renaissance in that she hasn’t been disgraced in her three starts and has demonstrated that she is at least a proficient jumper. She needs a poor race in order to be competitive and and a poor race is what she has. Furthermore, the basement weight she’s set to carry and the services of Richard Johnson provide a handsome fillip to her chances of getting off the mark. Love Tangle is rated a pound higher at 95 despite finishing sixteen lengths behind Nellie The Elegant at Newton Abbot in August. Whilst Nellie The Elegant is honest and fairly straightforward, Love Tangle is anything but. He has been bitterly disappointing all season and the fact he carries nine pounds more than the filly compounds his severe lack of chance. Earl’s Bridge was another who took part in the aforementioned Newton Abbot but though he was even worse than the above on the flat, lacked fluency and finished a further eleven lengths behind Love Tangle, he still carries an extra pound here. Appellez Baileys was fairly atrocious on the flat and his jumping on his debut was on a par. His jumping next time at Huntingdon was better but still a mixed bag and despite finishing twenty lengths third, he had little to beat and shaped like further would suit in any case. The form of Drifter’s third at Yarmouth behind two subsequent winners reads well in the context of this race but it is difficult not to be perturbed by his rather hypermanic affection. It was this trait that cost him any real chance on his debut at Fontwell and if he’s similarly lit up, it’s going to be a rough shift for Michael Byrne. Having said that, he does have a certain amount of talent and was actually quite eyecatching with his swift style of jumping so if he turns up in a more deferential mood then he could very well be in the mix. Symphony Of Pearls was tailed off on her sole flat start last July and only made it to the second at Chepstow when unshipping Robert Dunne by jumping sharply right – an action she continued making whilst loose. The three newcomers are headed by Mabdhool whom was a fair and consistent sort for Marcus Tregoning. His two best runs came on the firmer side of good when finishing third in a Bath handicap of 66 and winning a four runner Chepstow maiden. After fetching 16,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale, he had one more run on the flat when finishing eighteen length last of five in a Kempton handicap. Despite this disappointment, his overall profile stands him in good stead here even with top weight and the lack of forecast rain helps his chances. Taanif showed some promise as a two year old for Kevin Prendergast but has been operating at a low level recently he will need to step up in order to be competitive here. Craftybird was beaten one hundred and eleven lengths in four starts as a two year old and was beaten sixty lengths on her return at Brighton earlier this month on her first start for Gary Moore.

Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Drifter
2. Nellie The Elegant
3. Mabdhool

Love Tangle 2/3 My Tent Or Yours 2nd Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2014
Drifter 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2007
Symphony Of Pearls 5/3 Micko’s Dream 1st Dan Moore Handicap Chase (153), Fairyhouse 2001
Appellez Baileys 5/4 Midnight Legend 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 1999
Craftybird 2/3 Hisaabaat 2nd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2012
Taanif 2/2 Emperors Guest 3rd Denny Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Leopardstown 2001
Earl's Bridge 3/3 Lazy Darren 3rd Top Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2008
Mabdhool 4/2 Tissifer 1st Novices’ Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2001
Nellie The Elegant no jumps relatives

Sires
Love Tangle - Azamour (4)
Drifter - Footstepsinthesand (3)
Appellez Baileys - Halling (2)
Earl's Bridge - Avonbridge(1)
Symphony Of Pearls - Lucarno
Craftybird - Mastercraftsman
Taanif - Aqlaam
Mabdhool - Mount Nelson
Nellie The Elegant - Mount Nelson
 
Cheers fellas. Another winner who halved in price. Whilst I like to think that it's simply a case of the market taking a proper shape in the morning, it's most probably due to the overwhelming influence of this thread...

To be honest, I can't say I enjoyed yesterday's race at all though given what happened to poor Earl's Bridge. I suppose one can be grateful that there hadn't been a UK fatality until yesterday but it's still awful for the horse as well as his connections.

The world keeps turning though and the party continues at Norfolk.

The first fillies Juvenile takes place at Fakenham today and it effectively doubles as a maiden event since neither of the two with experience have won as of yet.

Dry Your Eyes is the most experienced of the two with hurdles form and with her being a half-sister to Bayan and representing Donald McCain, her bare profile is appealing. She faded on her debut at Cartmel over an extended seventeen furlongs but her second at Perth was much more encouraging. The Perth contest looked rather tepid beforehand but the winner was runner up to Sinndar’s Man under a penalty and the fourth won his own race at Fontwell so it’s looking well in hindsight. Her own performance in that contest was a great step up from her debut as she jumped nicely throughout and plugged on after being headed at the last. Her latest start at Wetherby was slightly disappointing but she was chasing a solid gallop, was still travelling well until the penultimate flight and her jumping was absolutely fine up to the last couple at which point her race was over in any case. She does have a habit of racing a bit keenly but over this sharp two miles, that shouldn’t cause too much of a problem and she sets a solid standard here. Moving Waves won a Southwell handicap over a mile and three quarters and it was stamina that earned her third place on her jumps debut at Ludlow. Held up in a race ran at a rather frenetic clip, when most in front of her had ran out of steam, she was able to inherit the placing almost by default. Her jumping wasn’t too convincing either and although there’s bound to be some improvement in that department, she’d be much better suited by a longer trip on a more galloping track. The standard of the newcomers’ flat form is really not much higher than of the experienced pair so an improvement for a switch to hurdling would be necessary for all of the following. Isabella Liberty is the only winner amongst the debutants and her win came at Saint-Cloud in a mile and a half maiden. That performance recieved an RPR of 81 but it was off roughly that kind of mark where she was well beaten in a Clairefontaine handicap and her UK return saw her beaten by seventy four lengths at Newmarket. Her trainer Robert Eddery has sent out barely a handful of runners over jumps and although he did train a winner in World Heritage in 2011, he jumped poorly on both of his starts and won on class alone. Stablemate Olymnia does have some royalty in her blood and stamina won’t be a concern but her flat form is no better than fair. Keep To The Beat is another representing a flat trainer in Kevin Ryan and her sequences of places in July would be the strongest flat form in this field. Her latest two starts have been disappointing though and with her entered in next week’s sales, this does look more like haphazard punt than a calculated career change. Acquaint is the most exposed horse in the field with fifteen runs without a win to her name. After failing to cut much ice at the Hannon yard as a two year old, she’s spent this season contesting middle and long distance races where her best effort was a fourth behind Keep To The Beat in a Beverley handicap in July. She’s a full sister to fair hurdler Taste The Wine but her trainer’s three percent strike rate with hurdlers is hardly inspirational. L Ge R wasn’t without promise as a two year old but since finishing fifth at Yarmouth on her reappearance in April, she has been regressive and she will need a huge step up on her latest fifteen length defeat off a mark of 50 to get competitive. A rare flat runner for her sire, Little Flo is veritably bred for a career over obstacles. Indeed, whatever she achieved on the flat was always going to be a bonus so to speak and with that in mind, her flat form isn’t too discouraging. Her best two starts involve subsequent hurdlers – she was three lengths fourth at Bath behind Ludlow scorer Bishop Wulstan and was quick enough to finish under a length third of thirteen over nine and a half furlongs at Wolverhampton with Kempton runner up Maid Of Tuscany way behind. Admittedly, it is still pretty poor but being trained by Brendan Powell, she’s at least likely to jump and stay.

Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Dry Your Eyes
2. Little Flo
3. Keep To The Beat

Moving Waves 3/3 Intersky Falcon 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 2002 & 2003
Olymnia 3/2 Royal Gait 1st Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1992 (3/3 Contraband)
Little Flo 5/4 Texas Jack 1st Kinloch Brae Chase (G2), Thurles 2014
Keep To The Beat 4/3 Fingal Bay 1st Challow Hurdle (G1), Newbury 2011 (4/3 Ooodachee)
Dry Your Eyes .5 Bayan 3rd Coral Cup (G3,138), Cheltenham 2014
L Ge R 5/2 Juven Light 3rd National Spirit Hurdle (Listed), Fontwell 1988
Isabella Liberty 4/1 Arabian Moon 1st Handicap Hurdle (124), Cheltenham 2003
Acquaint 1/1 Taste The Wine 2nd Handicap Hurdle (112), Hereford 2012

Sires
Keep To The Beat - Beat Hollow (5)
Dry Your Eyes - Shamardal (2)
Acquaint - Verglas (2)
Moving Waves - Intense Focus
Olymnia - Teofilo
Little Flo - Midnight Legend
L Ge R - Pastoral Pursuits
Isabella Liberty - Soldier Of Fortune
 
This preview is a little short, partly because I'm going off memory and partly because I'm still peeved with the race at Fakenham. I have no problems making an error in judgement as I've done it several times this season already, including numerous times in the same race. However, I don't like seeing "plot horses" in any grade or code of the sport.

Two horses who emerged from their respective debuts with blatant scope and promise. The second and third from Starchitect's Bangor race have both since finished runner up - Final Countdown at Wetherby and Guard Of Honour at Uttoxeter - whereas the value of Unanimite lies in what his opponents did previously. The Pipe horse does have to carry four pounds extra but the his form, at face value, does look four pounds better than that of Starchitect and whilst his quirky behaviour at Bangor can be rationalised, his honesty still needs to be proven on the track. Witch From Rome's two runners up spots are respectable and there are races in him but it still leaves him short here and that's before the flat class is taken into account. Cape Arrow is here for the £382 and good luck to the connections for picking a race which would cut up like this.

Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Unanimite
2. Starchitect
3. With From Rome

Starchitect 4/2 Vandas Choice 2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,135), Wetherby 2005
Unanimite 2/1 Barents 1st Conditions Hurdle, Lyon Parilly 2013
Cape Arrow .5 Conducting 2nd Novices' Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2014
Guard Of Honour 4/3 The Woodstock Lady 1st Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (98), Exeter 2001


Sires
Guard Of Honour - Galileo (10)
Cape Arrow - Cape Cross (7)
Starchitect - Sea The Stars
Unanimite - Kentucky Dynamite
 
Bachelors Hall said:
I can't tell you how furious I am that I didn't have him as my "arbitrary 1" :D

Cheers Chopper :)

When I do write ups, I tend to do so as if I have no idea what the prices are. Today was a bit of an exception as the first chance I'd got to have a proper look was this morning but all the same, I write in terms of chance whilst being blind of any value. It was a poor race and though the favourite was vulnerable to temperament (which manifested itself here), he looked slightly better than the winner on balance beforehand. If value was a consideration then 25/1 (opened at 33/1 I think) was obviously way too big. He's a half brother to two decent hurdlers, his trainer has already proven he can get juveniles to jump, his mercurial form meant his latest flop wasn't a death knell for his chances and that his owners merely switched trainers instead of selling him was indicative of the fact that they thought he still had a race or two in him despite having the Hannons get the most out of him on the flat. His sire, Oratorio, also sired top French juvenile Tidara Angel but now he's standing in South Africa, we're not going to see him fulfil his potential as a National Hunt sire which is a bit of a shame (for jumps fans at least).

The fact that the race worked out perfectly for the horse certainly played its part though...
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Bishop Wulstan just gone through the Tatts sales ring. Consigned by Hannon and bought by 'Vendor' (presumably Middleham Park) for £10k.
 
archie said:
Bishop Wulstan just gone through the Tatts sales ring. Consigned by Hannon and bought by 'Vendor' (presumably Middleham Park) for £10k.
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£10,000 seems like a fair price though it does reflect on the standard of today's Wetherby listed contest with Top Notch and Mr Gallivanter omitted from the declarations. He'd still be a bit outclassed though since through a tenuous Aristocracy and Vosne Romanee line, Bishop Wulstan has about a stone and a half to find on the principals and it was a poor, tailor made race he won at Ludlow. Brian Ellison splashed out 110,000 guineas on Seamour - conqueror of Karezak so this could very well be the last time Come On Sunshine participates in listed company. There's actually very little separating him and Full Day through Vosne Romanee and it's the favourable ground for the filly that tilts the balance in her favour. Furthermore, Danny Cook has elected to ride Full Day so she's presumably the stable choice despite Come On Sunshine having a tune up at Catterick on Tuesday. Magic Magnolia has already been exposed as little better than claiming class and sole newcomer, Sicilian Bay will need to show substantial improvement on her twelfth start.

1. Full Day
2. Come On Sunshine
3. Bishop Wulstan

Bishop Wulstan .5 Gibb River 1st Handicap Hurdle (144), Sandown 2012
Sicilian Bay 3/4 Lord Jim 1st Bristol Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 1997
Full Day 6/4 Bright Oassis 145+ 1st Knowsley (Later "Top") Novices' Hurdle, Aintree 1982
Come On Sunshine 4/2 Yorkshire 6th Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 2002
Magic Magnolia No jumps relatives - American Bred

Sires
Sicilian Bay - Jeremy (8)
Come On Sunshine - Authorized (5)
Magic Magnolia - Azamour (4)
Bishop Wulstan - Oratorio (1)
Full Day - Champs Elysees
 
Tomorrow's juvenile at Huntingdon sees six experienced hurdlers take on five newcomers and with five flat winners set to line up, the race is of a fair standard. The two previous renewals of the race have been taken by the favourite and the winning stable from two years ago is represented again here.

The newcomers are probably headed by Gary Moore's Fennann who was a recalcitrant sort on the flat and needed every yard of his two mile victory in a poor handicap on the flat. Those problems were evident on his jumps debut at Fontwell and re-emerged when he returned to the same track where he carried his head high when pushed along and hung after jumping the last. He stayed on for third that day and through the runner up Mercouer, whose rating increased to 113 after running in an all aged handicap, he's probably worth a rating around the 100 mark which is reasonable enough at this level. He still shapes as though he needs further though so the two furlong drop in trip doesn't bode well for him. Ravenous was inconsistent on the flat and following two lacklustre efforts at Stratford and Ludlow where stamina was his undoing, he put in his best effort to date at Kempton last time out. He took the lead on that occasion and his being the only experienced hurdler in the field enabled him to produce a bold showing. Nevertheless, his decent jumping could only take him so far as he was passed turning in by the flagrantly superior Stars Over The Sea and once again after the last by the fair-at-best Maid Of Tuscany. He will probably race prominently again but the contours of Huntingdon will not suit him as well as Kempton did. Gladstone was solid in the market prior to his UK/jumps debut for Warren Greatrex at Kempton but finished tailed off behind Ravenous. He sweated up beforehand and although his jumping was fine at the first four hurdles, a blunder at the fifth immediately sapped his enthusiasm and he was swiftly headed by inferior sorts. Nevertheless, he wasn't asked any undue questions afterwards by Gavin Sheehan and was allowed to complete in his own time. Rated around 84 on the flat and an easy winner of a Maisons Laffitte claimer, he's got as much class as any of these and is certainly capable of much better if leaving his debut behind him. Officer Drivel is an enigma at best given his propensity to be withdrawn and follow a solid effort with a lacklustre one. He drifted in the market before capitulating in the race at Newton Abbot, ran a very solid race under a slipped saddle at Plumpton then after receiving healthy support in the market over today's course and distance, blew his chances by pulling himself to the front again. The services of Sam Twiston-Davies might make a difference but the overall impression of this horse is one of rank unreliability. Symphony Of Pearls was tailed off on her only flat start, unseated at the second at Chepstow before running around at the next obstacles whilst loose, then put in an uninspired round of jumping when well beaten in a Ludlow Claimer. Worthy Spirit managed to unseat his rider on his only flat start and didn't behave particularly better when finishing well behind in a Wetherby maiden. With all the experienced runners meandering under a capricious cloud of mediocrity, the door looks decidedly open for a newcomer. Alan King won this race two years ago with the penalised McVicar and bids to repeat the dose with a newcomer with a gender specific allowance. Nyanza is a stoutly bred filly, closely related to Nobilita who was a decent enough four year old hurdler in France. Whilst predictably slow from the blocks as a two year old, albeit not without promise, she began her three year old career with back to back victories at Kempton over eleven furlongs. She progressed in two starts in the summer on faster ground than good which probably wouldn't have suited and was last seen three weeks ago finishing second at Wolverhampton which would have tuned her up nicely for this event. The evidence suggests she may even do better over further but there will be no stamina doubts for her jumps debut and her trainer has already hinted that she's being aimed at the fillies hurdle at Aintree which the yard took with L'Unique. Loving Your Work progressed through the spring and his good run at form culminated with a victory in a fifteen runner Newbury handicap in June where he had Nyanza behind in third. He ran no sort of race in listed company next time at Royal Ascot but though he wasn't disgraced when last of four at Yarmouth, his last two starts on softer ground at Chepstow and Windsor have been steps in the wrong direction. Mick Channon's filly, Stoneham is the last of the runners with a win to her name and that win came in early October from a mark of 50 in a Wolverhampton handicap over an extended nine furlongs. Since then, she was beaten in a classifed stakes over the same course and distance and even when disregarding her inconsistency, her best form would leave her with plenty to do. Ferngrove wasn't utterly without promise in three runs on the flat as a two year old at up to seven furlongs but it wasn't great form either and his sole start as a three year old over nine and a half furlongs in September didn't suggest that a career over hurdles would earn his connections any money. Pretty Mobile is bred to be a jumper in France so last month's debut in a Wolverhampton maiden can't be taken as anything other than a public gallop session. Even so, she showed nothing at Dunstall Park and there are weaker contests for her to make her debut in than this one.

Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Nyanza
2. Gladstone
3. Fennann

Loving Your Work 2/1 Jack The Giant 3rd Arkle Chase (G1), Cheltenham 2007
Symphony Of Pearls 5/3 Micko’s Dream 1st Dan Moore Handicap Chase (153), Fairyhouse 2001
Nyanza 2/1 Nobilita 1st Prix de Besancon (listed), Enghien 2008
Fennann 2/1 Trenchant 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2010
Stoneham 5/3 Once More For Luck 3rd Handicap Hurdle (139), Sedgefield 1999
Worthy Spirit 4/1 Wing And A Prayer 1st Tolworth Hurdle (Listed), Sandown 1985 (4/4 Istimraar)
Gladstone 2/2 Wingtips 5th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2012
Pretty Mobile 2/0 Goburge 3rd Prix d’Iena, Auteuil 1998 (2/1 Gorgibus)
Ravenous .5 Superciliary 1st Handicap Hurdle (108), Wincanton 2014
Officer Drivel 2/1 King Of Oriel 1st Handicap Hurdle (95), Punchestown 2013
Ferngrove 2/1 Whispering Wind 1st 4YO Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2000

Sires
Pretty Mobile - Al Namix (4)
Worthy Spirit - Shirocco (3)
Ravenous - Raven's Pass (2)
Officer Drivel - Captain Rio (2)
Fennann - Dutch Art (1)
Stoneham - Sixties Icon (1)
Loving Your Work - Royal Applause
Symphony Of Pearls - Lucarno
Nyanza - Dai Jin
Gladstone - Mizzen Mast
Ferngrove - Rockport Harbor
 
The juvenile at Auteuil today is an absolute cracker. We'll see just how good Bonito du Berlais is at last.
 
Agree Maruco - on the ratings I have the filly comes out top on today's adjusted figures. Posted my thoughts in the French Champion Hurdle topic but the value is all with Kotkikova and Gallorini :)

Martin
 
Maruco said:
The juvenile at Auteuil today is an absolute cracker. We'll see just how good Bonito du Berlais is at last.
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Well, we saw it!

BennyB said:
Another winner. This could be the best thread on the Internet.
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:D As good as this thread is relative to the rest of the internet, it pales in comparison to the sheer magnificence of Bonito du Berlais's performance today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDxdbUl4qAY

If he's aimed towards the Cheltenham Festival then it would be more appropriate that he is aimed at the Champion Hurdle. This performance was unnatural.
 
He's good isn't he!

I'm not sure about Cheltenham. Although I'd love to see him there, he'll have had a pretty tough season if they keep him going until March.
 
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