Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

Iceo never really gave himself a chance of getting home there. I'm not sure Nicholls will be too bothered. Midway through the race I actually wondered if Pied Piper was trying but I suspect Russell realised they were going too hard up front (I'll compere the running with the previous CD handicap some time later) and maybe the race ended up falling into his lap but he was visually impressive.
 
I've laid PP at 11/4.

I reckon his own yard will have one or two better, never mind Mullins, Hendo and all the other Irish trainers.
 
Looks like another classic in the making between Pied Piper and Fils D'or

Pied Piper looks a horse beyond his years and will take some stopping.

I doubt if Davy Russell would trade the ride for anything
 
Desert Orchid said:
Iceo never really gave himself a chance of getting home there. I'm not sure Nicholls will be too bothered. Midway through the race I actually wondered if Pied Piper was trying but I suspect Russell realised they were going too hard up front (I'll compere the running with the previous CD handicap some time later) and maybe the race ended up falling into his lap but he was visually impressive.
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It looks like they did indeed go very hard in the middle part of the juvenile race, at least compared with the handicap hurdle immediately before it. The races were level early but the juveniles went about 20 lengths in front on the far side. The handicap had made up the ground by the time they got to the last. PP was already clear and coasting while it was a hard-fought finish to the handicap but they went from the last to the line in virtually the same time.

In net terms, the overall form of the juvenile race, purely in terms of comparative times, is nothing sensational. PP was half a length faster but was carrying 6lbs less. Cormier was rated 130 so maybe ran to 137 in winning. That would make PP around the same mark (without allowing for what more he could have found if asked, obviously).
 
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From the second last Cormier was actually 4 lengths faster (60 seconds) than Pied Piper (61 seconds) which is the equivelant of 4 lengths but the former was flat to the boards....Would he have been the faster of the two had he been all out is the big question.

However the biggest effort davy put in to the race was waving after he won to someone who took his photo.
When Gordon Ellit starts talkin about switching Pied Piper to the Supreme to take on the Fab Four you can be sure Davy has told him "This is some machine"
 
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Another thing I've just noticed.

In winning the Ballymore trial race over nearly half a mile further than the Triumph trial, North Lodge covered each of the final four furlongs faster than Pied Piper, in total 2.29s faster for the half-mile, approximately 11.5 lengths faster.

And I can't see NL figuring in the Ballymore (although I reserve the right to revise that opinion once I get a closer look at the form).

And Paisley Park was 2.28s faster than Pied Piper for the final half-mile over just short of 3m.
 
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chroniclandlord said:
Pied Piper was mighty impressive. Him, Fils D'or and Vauban all look well ahead of the UK trained juveniles.
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Didn't Ruby say on TRTC recently he didn't think the juveniles so far were up to much and that there probably wasn't much between UK & Irish?

My own limited figures so far are suggesting somewhere between average and good but nothing outstanding. That's why I'm half-convinced we probably haven't yet seen the Triumph winner.
 
It' could be too late in the day to find something good enough to beat this years front runners

Pentland Hills 20/1 was a bit of a shock winner but he had run more than a few times on the flat so he had bags of racing expierince.

It's getting abit late in the day to be running a unknown juvenile and taking on more experianced rivals

It already has a top class look to it this year.......which makes it even more difficult to imagine an Istabraq jumping out the woodwork
 
Pied Piper beat Forever William by much the same as Porticello did in the Finale but he did it effortlessly.

Neither of the pre-Christmas Cheltenham juvenile races looked special nor did the one at Doncaster so I'll stick with the view that the three Irish trained horses are well ahead at the moment.
 
I can't remember Davy Russell take it so easy on a horse since he rode Windsor Park in the Delottie
Which raised a few eybrows........despite being beaten he hacked up in the Balymore with probably half of Ireland on him.

Davy seldom gets it wrong and he apparently was full of praise for the horse after the race so you can be sure this horse will win the Triumph or go damn close.
 
Desert Orchid said:
And Paisley Park was 2.28s faster than Pied Piper for the final half-mile over just short of 3m.
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The Cleeve was in fact faster from the last flight in the straight first time round (the second flight in the 2m hcap) all the way through the final circuit, having run more than a mile before that point.
 
Anyone know how those ratings compare with previous seasons at the same stage?

Certainly by the end of last season there were six rated higher. I'm pretty sure Zanahiyr was rated higher as early as December.
 
I think the fact that they have rated Pied Piper only a lb ahead of Porticello tells you all you need to know about using ratings for Juveniles.
 
I don't have too much of a problem with that, to be honest.

Ratings are a nuts-and-bolts tool based on quantifiable evidence.

Beyond that, punters are entirely free to interpret their own impression of the ease/value of the win.

While that takes time and experience to train the eye, a numerical evaluation is often a valuable starting point.
 
Yeah agreed, not really taking a swipe at timeform or ratings in particular, it's just that with juveniles it's practically impossible and imo pointless as the sample size is so small and potential for improvement is massive.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Yeah agreed, not really taking a swipe at timeform or ratings in particular, it's just that with juveniles it's practically impossible and imo pointless as the sample size is so small and potential for improvement is massive.
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Yes, but every now and again one puts up a performance that the numbers tell you is better than, say, the 10-year average and sometimes it happens before the market catches on!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Didn't Ruby say on TRTC recently he didn't think the juveniles so far were up to much and that there probably wasn't much between UK & Irish?

My own limited figures so far are suggesting somewhere between average and good but nothing outstanding. That's why I'm half-convinced we probably haven't yet seen the Triumph winner.
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I'm still not convinced we've seen the Triumph winner.
 
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