Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22
- Thread starter Bachelors Hall
- Start date
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
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- 24,230
With the Triumph in mind, I mean.
Might be better at Cheltenham but I can't help thinking Mullins or Elliott will have something better in the wings. Maybe Nicholls has one too.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
If they both run I'd say unless there's a Persian War hiding in the shadows that someone has forgotten to run yet the rest will be as well staying at home.....That was a cracking performance for Vauban today and Pied Piper is a monster
Bachelors Hall
Conditional
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- Apr 24, 2012
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- 763
I'm sure I have plenty of thoughts on recent events but this week has seen a new shift pattern at work as well as the passing of a dear friend. Absolutely not fishing for sympathy btw since I have been processing it with the friends still here, the one that went back to the universe would find such things utterly unbecoming and I have no doubt in my mind that I will be decent soon enough. Just a disclaimer as to how I am not really with it at the moment. I have done a preview for the Scottish Triumph although it was written on autopilot so whether it is any good is anybody's guess...
MUSSELBURGH (Scottish Triumph) - 6th February
Since Dalaram won a maiden on this card in 2004, en-route to taking Chepstow's Free Handicap in the Autumn, each subsequent juvenile hurdle at Musselburgh at this meeting has contained the word "Triumph". While a conditions race until attaining listed status in 2014, the contest was titled the "Triumph Trial". Though it had only really been a 'trial' in name only, Carlito Brigante, Sametegal and Hargam (winners in 2010, 2013 and 2015) would finish fourth, third and third again in their respective Triumph Hurdles. Orsippus, Starchitect and Project Bluebook reached the frame both here and in the Fred Winter with the first named joined by We Have A Dream in subsequent winners of the Anniversary at Aintree. Comfortably and consistently the strongest juvenile hurdle held in Scotland, its simpler title of "Scottish Triumph Hurdle", adopted in 2020, is a perfectly apt designation. This season's renewal features just one Triumph entry who also happens to be the sole newcomer to the sphere. Nevertheless, five previous winners with respectable form make for a competitive affair with the field rounded off by an Iain Jardine flat winner who attempts to keep the prize in Scotland for just the second time; James Ewart's Vosoges being the only previous Scottish trained winner.
A sharp and almost flat left-handed track, Musselburgh's average winning DIs of 1.26 median, 1.41 mean are on the higher side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.27% is close to average. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 70.97% and the median winning SP of 2/1`is the fifth lowest in Britain. Newcomers have a somewhat lower chance against experienced rivals than at other venues, but their clear round rate 96.88% is actually higher than the average; one of a handful of racecourses where this is the case. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. In this particular contest, those having their first run at the venue have won 56.25% of the races. Nevertheless, 31.25% of the winners have previously scored at the venue with such horses having a 59.41% strike rate. While there is just one confirmed front runner in the field, a couple of others have raced prominently in the past. Neither of these are short of pace so an honest gallop looks likely without there necessarily being a risk of an easy lead. The going has most recently been described as good, good to soft in places. However, the aniticpated steady showers, including those of a sleety nature, could see some ease in the ground before post time.
Triumph Odds
Innatendue 66/1 (80)
Fred Winter Odds
Malakahna 25/1
Calvados 33/1
Impulsive One 40/1
Inca Prince 50/1
Sonning 50/1
Bulls Aye chg Iain Jardine f10-1-1 (70) 80 j1-0-0 (-) 64 58
Intello (Shamardal){14-c}(1.07) 2/1 Think Ahead 1st 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Cartmel 2017
The only Scottish trained runner in the field, Bulls Aye's sole flat success came at this venue where he landed a seven furlong novice auction stakes in September 2020. His best piece of form in that sphere came on his three-year-old return when he was third over the same trip in a June handicap off 78. However, while he was consistent enough on his remaining five flat outings last year, he was unable to reach the frame and appeared not to stay on his sole start beyond a mile. Given a break of a couple of months, his attention was switched to juvenile hurdling. Though the records of his sire and trainer in the sphere are no better than fair, Bulls Aye is a nephew of a couple of winning hurdlers. The dam is a full-sister to Think Ahead, and a half-sister to Duke Of Sonning who won as a juvenile in 2015. Making his jumps bow in an introductory hurdle at this venue in early December, Bulls Aye was sent off an unfancied 28/1. Taking a keen hold while restrained towards the rear, he made mistakes at the third and fourth before finishing a tailed off fifth of six. He was last seen at the start of the year when last of seven in a Newcastle handicap where he also raced keenly. Bulls Aye's flat class would be respectable in ordinary company. However, he appears to be stretched by even sharp tests over hurdles and his inability to settle will further compound an already difficult task here.
Impulsive One bg Nicky Henderson f9-1-5 (79) 83 j4-2-2 (127) 116 129
Union Rags (Lonhro){4-m}(1.77) 2/2 El Picador 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Musselburgh 2019
Winning one of his eight starts for William Haggas, Impulsive One had shown useful form on the flat at up to twelve furlongs. Making the switch to Nicky Henderson, he built on that foundation over hurdles with wins of twelve lengths at Plumpton, and ten lengths at Huntingdon on his first two outings. He was more impressive at Plumpton as he was able to settle better when given a lead. Nevertheless, there was much evidence of speed, neatness and enthusiasm on each occasion as he travelled strongly without ever looking in danger. Impulsive One's third outing came at Kempton in mid-October and though slightly uneasy in the ring, drifting from 4/7 to 5/6, he was still sent off the clear favourite. Without getting a lead in the four-runner field, Impulsive One was again forced to make his own running which was not ideal given his headstrong nature. Notwithstanding, his hurdling was his most polished to date and he was still on the bridle approaching the penultimate flight. There he made his only real error as he went through the top, but it did not cost him any real momentum and while he did not have enough to fend off Knight Salute's challenge on the run-in, he was still able to put nearly seven lengths between himself and the Alan King recruit in third. Given that he was conceding four pounds to the winner, seven if one accounts for the claim of the aforementioned's talented rider, Impulsive One emerged as best at the weights which in turn, is still one of the strongest British performances seen in the division this term. Having undergone a wind operation, he was able to match this performance in the Grade Two Summit Hurdle at Doncaster two months ago. The yielding ground was as soft as he had encountered to that point over hurdles and he opened at 8/1 in the morning. His price had halved by post time and while still fresh, he comparatively well and posted a very neat round of jumping. Tracking the leaders throughout, Impulsive One travelled strongly to make his challenge approaching the penultimate flight. However, though he jumped the last within a length of the lead, and passed Porticello shortly after, he could not match Knight Salute's turn of foot and lost second to Porticello just before the line. He was only beaten by a length and while he was in receipt of five pounds from the first two, the form was given a strong boost later in the month when Porticello landed the Grade One Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. Impulsive One was last seen at Wolverhampton thirty days ago racing in a fourteen furlong handicap off 80. He was unable to justify 6/4 joint favouritism, placing fourth of fifth, although the entire field did get first run on him from a slowly ran contest. Interestingly, he is set to be Nicky Henderson's sole representative at this meeting and this is a contest the yard has won three times from its five runners. Incidentally, his cousin El Picador won once and placed second twice at Musselburgh as a juvenile before unseating in the 2020 running of this contest. Impulsive One has the strongest form in this field, should get a lead, represents a trainer who likes to win this race and may find further improvement around this circuit. He will likely prefer the ground not to deteriorate but if it holds then his prospects would be strong.
Inca Prince bg Ruth Jefferson bg f6-1-0 (84) 87 j5-2-2 (121) 122 125
Fast Company (Hawk Wing){5-g}(1.00) 3/1 Definate Spectacle 2nd Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2007
Starting career with Henry de Bromhead, Inca Prince made a winning debut at Dundalk last September and left the yard with a rating of 86 after finishing sixth in a listed race there in early March. However, his three flat outings for new trainer Cormac Farrell (hitherto winless in juvenile hurdles) resulted in him standing on himself in the stalls, refusing to race and finishing detached. Though he was running beyond a mile for the first time and was sent off a 125/1 outsider for his hurdles bow at Listowel in September, there was cause for optimism in the pedigree. Fast Company had a strong winner to runner rate of 34.78% with juveniles going into the race while the useful Definate Spectacle appears at 3/1 on the damline. Held up in the rear, Inca Prince took a keen hold during the early stages and was not especially fluent over the second or third. Nevertheless, he jumped and settled better going onto the second circuit and made steady headway before turning for home in the leading pack. He made mistakes over the last two which cost him momentum, but was able to win the battle for fifth on the run-in. Sporting a first time hood, he continued his progression in a Gowran Park maiden a fortnight later. He was steady in the ring at 8/1 but unsteady in the race itself; immediately pulling himself to the front from a midfield position while doing his best to pull out Adam Short's arms. Though decent enough over the second and third, his hurdling was also wayward despite getting a lead along the back where he was especially close to the fourth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was still travelling well when jumping the penultimate flight with a narrow lead, and comfortably extended that gap to three lengths before meeting the last on completely the wrong stride. He was immediately headed on landing and would be relegated to third on the run-in. Apart from the fifth winning next time, the subsequent form has been disappointing. The same can not be said of Inca Prince's third start where he ran into two subsequent pattern winners at Down Royal at the end of October. Though still keen for much of the race, his rider did manage to restrain him in the rear and his jumping was much better as a result. Winner Fil Dor was in a class and race of his own, but Inca Prince did finish within a length of Sea Sessions who would land a listed fillies' race at Aintree the next time. A move to Ruth Jefferson followed with his British debut coming in a fairly average contest at Catterick in December. Starting the solid 85/40 favourite, he went straight into the lead and though still conspicuously keen, at least appeared to travel better up front. Inca Prince was in a clear lead going along the back at which point the field was well strung out. Nothing else looked like landing a blow prior and kept up to his work, he passed the post upwards of six lengths clear of the rest. The pace he set was a sensible one rather than one which would burn off average horses, but while the runner-up ran completely flat next time at Wetherby, the third did score in the same contest. Inca Prince's returned eighteen days later for a fair contest at Musselburgh on New Year's Day where he was a steady 5/2 third favourite of six. He was fairly keen early but set a strong pace which saw him enter the back with a dozen length lead. Though challenged by Collingham between the final two flights, his rival faded on the run-in; leaving Inca Prince to score by a driven out seven lengths despite slowing during the final furlong. The runner-up was beaten fourteen lengths off 100 next time, but Collingham (who was probably below his best here) did finish second in the Chatteris Fen before easily winning at Catterick on Friday. Inca Prince does not have a great deal to find at the weights and has the benefit of experience around Musselburgh. Furthermore, he is unlikely to be pressed too strongly for the lead, nor should he be inconvenienced if the heavens open.
Sonning grg Alan King f7-1-2 (76) 81 j4-1-2 (116) 110 115
The Gurkha (Rainbow Quest){8-d}(0.56) 3/2 Diakali 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2013
Costing 80,000 guineas in the 2020 Craven Breeze-up Sale, Sonning was not disgraced when lacking experience in three outings as a two-year-old and made a winning return from his winter break at Beverley in mid-April. Running in a ten furlong, good to firm handicap off a mark of 71, Sonning raced off the pace and although it took a while for the penny to drop, he weaved his way through traffic before running on gamely to win by a neck from Mark Johnston's Happy. He failed to win during three further flat spins, but still got his head down to run to his best when denied second by a head at Leicester. From the first crop of The Gurkha, Sonning distaff side counts little in the way of immediate hurdlers, although the first one that shows is the top class Diakali at 3/2, who was also a very accomplished juvenile hurdler. Winning jumpers Diamond Frontier, Diamond d'Amour and Diamond Kut also appear at 3/2 while Divapour can be found at 3/3. Sonning started his hurdling career with a flat rating of 76, and those trained for both codes by Alan King, particularly with such a mark, generally do well in the division. There was strong market confidence before his Wincanton bow that saw him go from a morning show of 11/8 to 1/2 at the off. Attempting to separate Adrian Heskin's arms from his torso, Sonning was held up in touch for much of the contest. He was still travelling well enough turning into the straight, but an untidy leap two out cost him valuable momentum and with the race out of his reach after the last, he was allowed to coast home upwards of five lengths clear of the remainder. Sonning was able to get off the mark at the second time of asking at Catterick a month later. He started at evens in a contest where the course and good, good to firm ground will have been ideal. Taking a keen hold behind the leaders, he pulled himself to the front by the first in the back without taking himself into a clear lead. Travelling strongly, it was only in the straight where he began to assert and after a brief shake of the reins, he would coast home by eleven lengths. Very little can be said of the form but other than skewing a couple of times early on, satisfaction could be derived from a slick round of jumping. Sonning next appeared in mid-December at Plumpton for a novice hurdle against older horses. Easy during the morning exchanges before starting at 3/1, he was keen as he tracked the leaders early on, before moving into second passing the stands. Sonning went into the lead going down hill in the back and was still travelling well as he entered the straight. However, his hurdling became rather untidy and though he maintained his position when challenged between the final two, Sonning weakened after the last and finished third; five lengths behind the front pair. Returning to Wincanton eleven days ago, he made the switch to handicap company, running off 119. He was especially keen while held up towards the rear and was untidy on several occasions. Slight headway was made on the cross section but made no further impression prior to finishing a thirty-one length fourth. Sonning is capable of winning more races over hurdles and could find himself well handicapped if he finds a sharp enough contest in time. However, he will need to learn how to settle better in the meantime and the ground is unlikely to be dry enough for him here.
Calvados bf John C McConnell f7-0-1 (52) 62 j5-1-3 (-) 111 115
Vadamos (Nathaniel){5-h}(0.38) 3/1 Madrasa 1st 2m3½f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (95), Wetherby 2015
An improving, if still modest maiden on the flat, Calvados would be the first Irish representative of sire Vadamos, as well as the first produce of Nathaniel's broodmares to partake in juvenile hurdles. In a Ballinrobe maiden back in August, Calvados got three careers off to the perfect start. Backed from 6/1 into 10/3 second favourite, she jumped nicely for a debutant and ran out a comfortable five and a half length winner. After finishing third at Navan on a return to the flat, she filled the same position on her next two hurdles outings at Listowel and Punchestown. Both times she found herself behind Bell Ex One, but had ran to a respectable level on each occasion. At Listowel, she kept on to split Realist (a subsequent hurdles winner in America) and Inca Prince, while at Punchestown she emerged better at the weights than runner-up Sea Sessions with the trio nineteen lengths clear of the remainder. Calvados would follow Sea Sessions to Aintree for a listed fillies' contest in early December. Held on bottomless ground, the pace was slow from start to finish. Racing close to the lead throughout, Calvados made minor errors but was better when the pace picked up somewhat along the back. She jumped the last alongside the leader and though Sea Sessions stayed the better of the pair, Calvados was able to hang on for second. Her latest appearance came in the Grade Two at Leopardstown over Christmas where she started an unfancied 33/1 outsider. Held up towards the rear off a steady pace, Calvados met with blocked paths just as the race unfolded on the home turn where she would probably have found herself outpaced in any event. She kept on but a large jump at the last put paid to any aspirations of finishing closer than an eighteen length sixth. John McConnell has had two winners from five in Musselburgh juveniles which is in keeping with his 31% strike rate with all runners at the course where he had another winner on the Saturday. He saddles two in this contest and while stablemate Innatendue holds the Triumph entry, Calvados has the services of Sean Bowen who has had ten wins from thirty rides for the yard. There is a bit to find with a couple of the geldings but her weight allowance would throw her into the mix and if the ground does go any softer, pedigree and racecourse evidence suggests that Calvados could be in her element.
Innatendue bf John C McConnell b4-2-2 (-) –
Spanish Moon (Sleeping Car){u}(2.00) 1/0 Trotot 1st 4000m 5&6yo Conditions Chase, Le Lion d’Angers 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/innatendue-1
The sole hurdling debutant in the field, Innatendue joined John McConnell after a €100,000 private sale at Arqana in the Autumn. Racing exclusively in bumpers to date, her career started with Etienne & Grégoire Leenders; a yard responsible for two winners (Dandy Mag and Ronde de Nuit) from three exports. Innatendue's debut came in an early August, 2400m fillies race at Le Lion-d'Angers where she started the 6.9 third favourite of nine. Switching on and off the bridle in midfield, she crept closer with half a mile to go and though she made a meal of getting to the front, she got the lead at the furlong marker before holding on by a neck. Nothing behind her has managed to win since, but the form of her next two outings is substantial. Though she still looked very slow the following month at Craon, it would be harsh to detract from her effort in chasing down Il Est Divin (second in a Groupe II next time) to half a length. In October, Innatendue finished third in a Groupe III at Moulins where she ran in a similar fashion behind Ile O Vent and Ingrandes. This pair would finish fifth and fourth in the Groupe I bumper at Saint Cloud, but not before Innatendue managed to beat the latter in a Groupe III at Durtal at the end of the month. It was a well contested multi way battle from the moment they entered the straight and Innatendue had her head down at just the right moment passing the post as she would have placed second or third a stride either side of the line. Though tying into some high strands on the AQPS circuit, the fact the first eight were covered by less than four and a half lengths does detract from the form. Nevertheless, Innatendue has shown a decent attitude to go with her patent stamina. Insofar as hurdling is concerned, Innatendue has some credentials in the pedigree. Two of Spanish Moon's six British and Irish juveniles have been winners, uncle Quimperial won a three-year-old hurdle while cousin Desir du Large finished third in the Johnstown novice. However, Spanish Moon's winner to runner rate with three-year-olds in France drops to 10% and his highest rated offspring in that country have been chasers. Furthermore, while hurdlers do appear on the damline, there is a heavier lean towards chasing. The dam gained both of her wins over fences as did half-brother En Temps Voulu, while the two other winning siblings did so in cross country races. Bonaniversere Papa (2/1) was a winning chaser, the useful Gondleen and l'Artiste Francais (both 3/1) showed their best form over fences while Chriseti (3/1) was a leading light in cross country. Innatendue's entry in the Triumph does not escape notice. However, the yard has a more feasible candidate in Calvados, its first time strike rate is a low one, and everything about the profile suggests that even if Musselburgh was ploughed before racing, she would still find things happening too quickly.
Malakahna bf Ian Williams f2-1-1 (-) - j3-1-1 (115) 109 116
Manduro (Dalakhani){1-h}(0.33) 2/1 Dariya 1st 2m1f Mares' Handicap Hurdle (102), Newton Abbot 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/malakahna
Ian Williams made four acquisitions at the Arqana Deauville Sale in July with Saint Riquier going on to place in pattern company. The next of the quartet to be seen was Malakahna who was introduced in a fillies' contest at Fakenham in late October. Ian Williams had only had one previous winner from his seven juveniles imported from the French flat, although this was also his other sourced from Christophe Ferland who, incidentally, won first time out. Malakahna, who cost €40,000 in the aforementioned sale, made her debut in a 2300m newcomers contest at Tarbes in May where she ran on to finish just under eight lengths third behind animals rated 92 and 80. She got off the mark on her second outing the following month in a 2400m Toulouse maiden on soft ground. Shaping like an absolute plodder, she needed the entirety of the straight to bridge the length gap between herself and the leaders before crossing the line a quarter length to the good. Nevertheless, the form looks reasonable with the next two being subsequent winners rated 75 and 72 with the trio over five lengths clear of the remainder. Befitting the racecourse evidence, she has a stout pedigree which is also suitable for her new discipline. Manduro has a strong 32% winners to runners rate while damsire Dalakhani is solid at 22.58%. The damline is teutonic in nature with the granddam being a half-sister to Davidoff and Denaro, while Don Cossack appears further back at 4/3. Though her credentials were solid, the sharp nature of Fakenham's circuit looked unlikely to play to Malakahna's strengths and she started the race at 12/1. Settling in mid-division, she stayed out of the well contested battle at the head of the field and as the leaders dropped away during the final lap, she loomed alongside Aliomaana on the cross section. Her rival was persistent but she had given best by the time they turned for home and Malakahna was ridden out for an eight length win with the remainder a distance behind. The form with the runner-up is decent although given the way the race transpired, she was perhaps flattered by the ease of her success. Her hurdling also left something to be desired as she completely missed the first, was tight at the fourth, stumbled after flattening three out and pecking at the last. Malakahna was given an opportunity to show her class in the listed fillies' hurdle at Aintree on Becher Chase day where she was sent off the 11/2 second favourite. Ridden prominently out wide in a very slowly ran affair, she clipped the first and got in close to the third, fourth and sixth. Though still in contention entering the straight, she was somehow outpaced at the distance and a fairly laboured one paced to the line, finishing a seven length fifth. Malakahna was last seen at Sandown a month ago for a four-runner class 3 contest where she started the 15/8 second favourite of four. Held up in touch off what was a reasonable pace in the heavy ground, her jumping was marked by steady and sometimes careless jumping. While an early departure and an unfit non-stayer assured Malakahna of at least a second place finish, she had absolutely no answer when the winner pressed on at the distance and left her thirteen lengths in his wake. Malakahna would not be completely out of this on her best form, and she may well be content whatever the conditions or pace composition. However, this would also give her less scope for improvement and she does have to account for her below par outings where her jumping left plenty to be desired.
tl;dr
Bulls Aye - Sole Scottish trained runner in the field. Won on this track on the flat but failed to progress and looks a doubtful stayer. Failed to show on hurdling debut and continued inability to settle will likely exacerbate an already tricky assignment.
Impulsive One - Flat winner for William Haggas who was fast and nimble when winning minor events at Plumpton and Huntingdon. Found out by Knight Salute at Kempton and Doncaster but showed improved form which sets standard in this contest. Sole runner at meeting for top yard which has won this race three times. Has strong prospects if the ground holds.
Inca Prince - Promising flat career ended with whimper but has been rejuvinated by hurdles. Unlucky not to win at Gowran on second start and Irish form was enough for him to make all and run out emphatic winner at Catterick on British debut. Made all over course and distance last month and while that race was run to suit, the time was still decent. Course form an asset and should give good account although this may be tougher.
Sonning - Winner on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise when scoring at Catterick. Fair effort in Plumpton novice before moderate show in Wincanton handicap. Plenty of speed and capable of jumping well. However, will likely need the sharpest of tests to be seen to full effect at this juncture.
Calvados - Modest but improving maiden on flat who made winning hurdles debut at Ballinrobe in August. Failed to score since but placed next three outings in good company before being unsuited by how Leopardstown Grade Two unfolded. Something to find but weight allowance will help and conditions may bring out further improvement. Jockey booking an interesting one for yard with good record at venue.
Innatendue - Yet to race over hurdles but two wins and two places from four French bumpers. Form has strands in high levels of AQPS scene although she does look decidedly slow and will probably find this too sharp first time.
Malakahna - Respectable form on flat in France and won on British debut at a Fakenham which looked unlikely to suit. Race rather fell apart for her there however, and she failed to justify her initial impression at Aintree and Sandown. Not without a shout at best but questions over her latest efforts, and her jumping, loom large.
If Soft side of Good to Soft
Strong prospects
1. Calvados
Reasonable prospects
2. Impulsive One
3. Inca Prince
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Innatendue
5. Malakahna
6. Sonning
Negligible prospects
7. Bulls Aye
If Good side of Good to Soft
Strong prospects
1. Impulsive One
Reasonable prospects
2. Calvados
3. Inca Prince
Feasible prospects
4. Sonning
Moderate prospects
5. Malakahna
6. Innatendue
Negligible prospects
7. Bulls Aye
MUSSELBURGH (Scottish Triumph) - 6th February
Since Dalaram won a maiden on this card in 2004, en-route to taking Chepstow's Free Handicap in the Autumn, each subsequent juvenile hurdle at Musselburgh at this meeting has contained the word "Triumph". While a conditions race until attaining listed status in 2014, the contest was titled the "Triumph Trial". Though it had only really been a 'trial' in name only, Carlito Brigante, Sametegal and Hargam (winners in 2010, 2013 and 2015) would finish fourth, third and third again in their respective Triumph Hurdles. Orsippus, Starchitect and Project Bluebook reached the frame both here and in the Fred Winter with the first named joined by We Have A Dream in subsequent winners of the Anniversary at Aintree. Comfortably and consistently the strongest juvenile hurdle held in Scotland, its simpler title of "Scottish Triumph Hurdle", adopted in 2020, is a perfectly apt designation. This season's renewal features just one Triumph entry who also happens to be the sole newcomer to the sphere. Nevertheless, five previous winners with respectable form make for a competitive affair with the field rounded off by an Iain Jardine flat winner who attempts to keep the prize in Scotland for just the second time; James Ewart's Vosoges being the only previous Scottish trained winner.
A sharp and almost flat left-handed track, Musselburgh's average winning DIs of 1.26 median, 1.41 mean are on the higher side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.27% is close to average. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 70.97% and the median winning SP of 2/1`is the fifth lowest in Britain. Newcomers have a somewhat lower chance against experienced rivals than at other venues, but their clear round rate 96.88% is actually higher than the average; one of a handful of racecourses where this is the case. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. In this particular contest, those having their first run at the venue have won 56.25% of the races. Nevertheless, 31.25% of the winners have previously scored at the venue with such horses having a 59.41% strike rate. While there is just one confirmed front runner in the field, a couple of others have raced prominently in the past. Neither of these are short of pace so an honest gallop looks likely without there necessarily being a risk of an easy lead. The going has most recently been described as good, good to soft in places. However, the aniticpated steady showers, including those of a sleety nature, could see some ease in the ground before post time.
Triumph Odds
Innatendue 66/1 (80)
Fred Winter Odds
Malakahna 25/1
Calvados 33/1
Impulsive One 40/1
Inca Prince 50/1
Sonning 50/1
Bulls Aye chg Iain Jardine f10-1-1 (70) 80 j1-0-0 (-) 64 58
Intello (Shamardal){14-c}(1.07) 2/1 Think Ahead 1st 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Cartmel 2017
The only Scottish trained runner in the field, Bulls Aye's sole flat success came at this venue where he landed a seven furlong novice auction stakes in September 2020. His best piece of form in that sphere came on his three-year-old return when he was third over the same trip in a June handicap off 78. However, while he was consistent enough on his remaining five flat outings last year, he was unable to reach the frame and appeared not to stay on his sole start beyond a mile. Given a break of a couple of months, his attention was switched to juvenile hurdling. Though the records of his sire and trainer in the sphere are no better than fair, Bulls Aye is a nephew of a couple of winning hurdlers. The dam is a full-sister to Think Ahead, and a half-sister to Duke Of Sonning who won as a juvenile in 2015. Making his jumps bow in an introductory hurdle at this venue in early December, Bulls Aye was sent off an unfancied 28/1. Taking a keen hold while restrained towards the rear, he made mistakes at the third and fourth before finishing a tailed off fifth of six. He was last seen at the start of the year when last of seven in a Newcastle handicap where he also raced keenly. Bulls Aye's flat class would be respectable in ordinary company. However, he appears to be stretched by even sharp tests over hurdles and his inability to settle will further compound an already difficult task here.
Impulsive One bg Nicky Henderson f9-1-5 (79) 83 j4-2-2 (127) 116 129
Union Rags (Lonhro){4-m}(1.77) 2/2 El Picador 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Musselburgh 2019
Winning one of his eight starts for William Haggas, Impulsive One had shown useful form on the flat at up to twelve furlongs. Making the switch to Nicky Henderson, he built on that foundation over hurdles with wins of twelve lengths at Plumpton, and ten lengths at Huntingdon on his first two outings. He was more impressive at Plumpton as he was able to settle better when given a lead. Nevertheless, there was much evidence of speed, neatness and enthusiasm on each occasion as he travelled strongly without ever looking in danger. Impulsive One's third outing came at Kempton in mid-October and though slightly uneasy in the ring, drifting from 4/7 to 5/6, he was still sent off the clear favourite. Without getting a lead in the four-runner field, Impulsive One was again forced to make his own running which was not ideal given his headstrong nature. Notwithstanding, his hurdling was his most polished to date and he was still on the bridle approaching the penultimate flight. There he made his only real error as he went through the top, but it did not cost him any real momentum and while he did not have enough to fend off Knight Salute's challenge on the run-in, he was still able to put nearly seven lengths between himself and the Alan King recruit in third. Given that he was conceding four pounds to the winner, seven if one accounts for the claim of the aforementioned's talented rider, Impulsive One emerged as best at the weights which in turn, is still one of the strongest British performances seen in the division this term. Having undergone a wind operation, he was able to match this performance in the Grade Two Summit Hurdle at Doncaster two months ago. The yielding ground was as soft as he had encountered to that point over hurdles and he opened at 8/1 in the morning. His price had halved by post time and while still fresh, he comparatively well and posted a very neat round of jumping. Tracking the leaders throughout, Impulsive One travelled strongly to make his challenge approaching the penultimate flight. However, though he jumped the last within a length of the lead, and passed Porticello shortly after, he could not match Knight Salute's turn of foot and lost second to Porticello just before the line. He was only beaten by a length and while he was in receipt of five pounds from the first two, the form was given a strong boost later in the month when Porticello landed the Grade One Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. Impulsive One was last seen at Wolverhampton thirty days ago racing in a fourteen furlong handicap off 80. He was unable to justify 6/4 joint favouritism, placing fourth of fifth, although the entire field did get first run on him from a slowly ran contest. Interestingly, he is set to be Nicky Henderson's sole representative at this meeting and this is a contest the yard has won three times from its five runners. Incidentally, his cousin El Picador won once and placed second twice at Musselburgh as a juvenile before unseating in the 2020 running of this contest. Impulsive One has the strongest form in this field, should get a lead, represents a trainer who likes to win this race and may find further improvement around this circuit. He will likely prefer the ground not to deteriorate but if it holds then his prospects would be strong.
Inca Prince bg Ruth Jefferson bg f6-1-0 (84) 87 j5-2-2 (121) 122 125
Fast Company (Hawk Wing){5-g}(1.00) 3/1 Definate Spectacle 2nd Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2007
Starting career with Henry de Bromhead, Inca Prince made a winning debut at Dundalk last September and left the yard with a rating of 86 after finishing sixth in a listed race there in early March. However, his three flat outings for new trainer Cormac Farrell (hitherto winless in juvenile hurdles) resulted in him standing on himself in the stalls, refusing to race and finishing detached. Though he was running beyond a mile for the first time and was sent off a 125/1 outsider for his hurdles bow at Listowel in September, there was cause for optimism in the pedigree. Fast Company had a strong winner to runner rate of 34.78% with juveniles going into the race while the useful Definate Spectacle appears at 3/1 on the damline. Held up in the rear, Inca Prince took a keen hold during the early stages and was not especially fluent over the second or third. Nevertheless, he jumped and settled better going onto the second circuit and made steady headway before turning for home in the leading pack. He made mistakes over the last two which cost him momentum, but was able to win the battle for fifth on the run-in. Sporting a first time hood, he continued his progression in a Gowran Park maiden a fortnight later. He was steady in the ring at 8/1 but unsteady in the race itself; immediately pulling himself to the front from a midfield position while doing his best to pull out Adam Short's arms. Though decent enough over the second and third, his hurdling was also wayward despite getting a lead along the back where he was especially close to the fourth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was still travelling well when jumping the penultimate flight with a narrow lead, and comfortably extended that gap to three lengths before meeting the last on completely the wrong stride. He was immediately headed on landing and would be relegated to third on the run-in. Apart from the fifth winning next time, the subsequent form has been disappointing. The same can not be said of Inca Prince's third start where he ran into two subsequent pattern winners at Down Royal at the end of October. Though still keen for much of the race, his rider did manage to restrain him in the rear and his jumping was much better as a result. Winner Fil Dor was in a class and race of his own, but Inca Prince did finish within a length of Sea Sessions who would land a listed fillies' race at Aintree the next time. A move to Ruth Jefferson followed with his British debut coming in a fairly average contest at Catterick in December. Starting the solid 85/40 favourite, he went straight into the lead and though still conspicuously keen, at least appeared to travel better up front. Inca Prince was in a clear lead going along the back at which point the field was well strung out. Nothing else looked like landing a blow prior and kept up to his work, he passed the post upwards of six lengths clear of the rest. The pace he set was a sensible one rather than one which would burn off average horses, but while the runner-up ran completely flat next time at Wetherby, the third did score in the same contest. Inca Prince's returned eighteen days later for a fair contest at Musselburgh on New Year's Day where he was a steady 5/2 third favourite of six. He was fairly keen early but set a strong pace which saw him enter the back with a dozen length lead. Though challenged by Collingham between the final two flights, his rival faded on the run-in; leaving Inca Prince to score by a driven out seven lengths despite slowing during the final furlong. The runner-up was beaten fourteen lengths off 100 next time, but Collingham (who was probably below his best here) did finish second in the Chatteris Fen before easily winning at Catterick on Friday. Inca Prince does not have a great deal to find at the weights and has the benefit of experience around Musselburgh. Furthermore, he is unlikely to be pressed too strongly for the lead, nor should he be inconvenienced if the heavens open.
Sonning grg Alan King f7-1-2 (76) 81 j4-1-2 (116) 110 115
The Gurkha (Rainbow Quest){8-d}(0.56) 3/2 Diakali 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2013
Costing 80,000 guineas in the 2020 Craven Breeze-up Sale, Sonning was not disgraced when lacking experience in three outings as a two-year-old and made a winning return from his winter break at Beverley in mid-April. Running in a ten furlong, good to firm handicap off a mark of 71, Sonning raced off the pace and although it took a while for the penny to drop, he weaved his way through traffic before running on gamely to win by a neck from Mark Johnston's Happy. He failed to win during three further flat spins, but still got his head down to run to his best when denied second by a head at Leicester. From the first crop of The Gurkha, Sonning distaff side counts little in the way of immediate hurdlers, although the first one that shows is the top class Diakali at 3/2, who was also a very accomplished juvenile hurdler. Winning jumpers Diamond Frontier, Diamond d'Amour and Diamond Kut also appear at 3/2 while Divapour can be found at 3/3. Sonning started his hurdling career with a flat rating of 76, and those trained for both codes by Alan King, particularly with such a mark, generally do well in the division. There was strong market confidence before his Wincanton bow that saw him go from a morning show of 11/8 to 1/2 at the off. Attempting to separate Adrian Heskin's arms from his torso, Sonning was held up in touch for much of the contest. He was still travelling well enough turning into the straight, but an untidy leap two out cost him valuable momentum and with the race out of his reach after the last, he was allowed to coast home upwards of five lengths clear of the remainder. Sonning was able to get off the mark at the second time of asking at Catterick a month later. He started at evens in a contest where the course and good, good to firm ground will have been ideal. Taking a keen hold behind the leaders, he pulled himself to the front by the first in the back without taking himself into a clear lead. Travelling strongly, it was only in the straight where he began to assert and after a brief shake of the reins, he would coast home by eleven lengths. Very little can be said of the form but other than skewing a couple of times early on, satisfaction could be derived from a slick round of jumping. Sonning next appeared in mid-December at Plumpton for a novice hurdle against older horses. Easy during the morning exchanges before starting at 3/1, he was keen as he tracked the leaders early on, before moving into second passing the stands. Sonning went into the lead going down hill in the back and was still travelling well as he entered the straight. However, his hurdling became rather untidy and though he maintained his position when challenged between the final two, Sonning weakened after the last and finished third; five lengths behind the front pair. Returning to Wincanton eleven days ago, he made the switch to handicap company, running off 119. He was especially keen while held up towards the rear and was untidy on several occasions. Slight headway was made on the cross section but made no further impression prior to finishing a thirty-one length fourth. Sonning is capable of winning more races over hurdles and could find himself well handicapped if he finds a sharp enough contest in time. However, he will need to learn how to settle better in the meantime and the ground is unlikely to be dry enough for him here.
Calvados bf John C McConnell f7-0-1 (52) 62 j5-1-3 (-) 111 115
Vadamos (Nathaniel){5-h}(0.38) 3/1 Madrasa 1st 2m3½f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (95), Wetherby 2015
An improving, if still modest maiden on the flat, Calvados would be the first Irish representative of sire Vadamos, as well as the first produce of Nathaniel's broodmares to partake in juvenile hurdles. In a Ballinrobe maiden back in August, Calvados got three careers off to the perfect start. Backed from 6/1 into 10/3 second favourite, she jumped nicely for a debutant and ran out a comfortable five and a half length winner. After finishing third at Navan on a return to the flat, she filled the same position on her next two hurdles outings at Listowel and Punchestown. Both times she found herself behind Bell Ex One, but had ran to a respectable level on each occasion. At Listowel, she kept on to split Realist (a subsequent hurdles winner in America) and Inca Prince, while at Punchestown she emerged better at the weights than runner-up Sea Sessions with the trio nineteen lengths clear of the remainder. Calvados would follow Sea Sessions to Aintree for a listed fillies' contest in early December. Held on bottomless ground, the pace was slow from start to finish. Racing close to the lead throughout, Calvados made minor errors but was better when the pace picked up somewhat along the back. She jumped the last alongside the leader and though Sea Sessions stayed the better of the pair, Calvados was able to hang on for second. Her latest appearance came in the Grade Two at Leopardstown over Christmas where she started an unfancied 33/1 outsider. Held up towards the rear off a steady pace, Calvados met with blocked paths just as the race unfolded on the home turn where she would probably have found herself outpaced in any event. She kept on but a large jump at the last put paid to any aspirations of finishing closer than an eighteen length sixth. John McConnell has had two winners from five in Musselburgh juveniles which is in keeping with his 31% strike rate with all runners at the course where he had another winner on the Saturday. He saddles two in this contest and while stablemate Innatendue holds the Triumph entry, Calvados has the services of Sean Bowen who has had ten wins from thirty rides for the yard. There is a bit to find with a couple of the geldings but her weight allowance would throw her into the mix and if the ground does go any softer, pedigree and racecourse evidence suggests that Calvados could be in her element.
Innatendue bf John C McConnell b4-2-2 (-) –
Spanish Moon (Sleeping Car){u}(2.00) 1/0 Trotot 1st 4000m 5&6yo Conditions Chase, Le Lion d’Angers 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/innatendue-1
The sole hurdling debutant in the field, Innatendue joined John McConnell after a €100,000 private sale at Arqana in the Autumn. Racing exclusively in bumpers to date, her career started with Etienne & Grégoire Leenders; a yard responsible for two winners (Dandy Mag and Ronde de Nuit) from three exports. Innatendue's debut came in an early August, 2400m fillies race at Le Lion-d'Angers where she started the 6.9 third favourite of nine. Switching on and off the bridle in midfield, she crept closer with half a mile to go and though she made a meal of getting to the front, she got the lead at the furlong marker before holding on by a neck. Nothing behind her has managed to win since, but the form of her next two outings is substantial. Though she still looked very slow the following month at Craon, it would be harsh to detract from her effort in chasing down Il Est Divin (second in a Groupe II next time) to half a length. In October, Innatendue finished third in a Groupe III at Moulins where she ran in a similar fashion behind Ile O Vent and Ingrandes. This pair would finish fifth and fourth in the Groupe I bumper at Saint Cloud, but not before Innatendue managed to beat the latter in a Groupe III at Durtal at the end of the month. It was a well contested multi way battle from the moment they entered the straight and Innatendue had her head down at just the right moment passing the post as she would have placed second or third a stride either side of the line. Though tying into some high strands on the AQPS circuit, the fact the first eight were covered by less than four and a half lengths does detract from the form. Nevertheless, Innatendue has shown a decent attitude to go with her patent stamina. Insofar as hurdling is concerned, Innatendue has some credentials in the pedigree. Two of Spanish Moon's six British and Irish juveniles have been winners, uncle Quimperial won a three-year-old hurdle while cousin Desir du Large finished third in the Johnstown novice. However, Spanish Moon's winner to runner rate with three-year-olds in France drops to 10% and his highest rated offspring in that country have been chasers. Furthermore, while hurdlers do appear on the damline, there is a heavier lean towards chasing. The dam gained both of her wins over fences as did half-brother En Temps Voulu, while the two other winning siblings did so in cross country races. Bonaniversere Papa (2/1) was a winning chaser, the useful Gondleen and l'Artiste Francais (both 3/1) showed their best form over fences while Chriseti (3/1) was a leading light in cross country. Innatendue's entry in the Triumph does not escape notice. However, the yard has a more feasible candidate in Calvados, its first time strike rate is a low one, and everything about the profile suggests that even if Musselburgh was ploughed before racing, she would still find things happening too quickly.
Malakahna bf Ian Williams f2-1-1 (-) - j3-1-1 (115) 109 116
Manduro (Dalakhani){1-h}(0.33) 2/1 Dariya 1st 2m1f Mares' Handicap Hurdle (102), Newton Abbot 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/malakahna
Ian Williams made four acquisitions at the Arqana Deauville Sale in July with Saint Riquier going on to place in pattern company. The next of the quartet to be seen was Malakahna who was introduced in a fillies' contest at Fakenham in late October. Ian Williams had only had one previous winner from his seven juveniles imported from the French flat, although this was also his other sourced from Christophe Ferland who, incidentally, won first time out. Malakahna, who cost €40,000 in the aforementioned sale, made her debut in a 2300m newcomers contest at Tarbes in May where she ran on to finish just under eight lengths third behind animals rated 92 and 80. She got off the mark on her second outing the following month in a 2400m Toulouse maiden on soft ground. Shaping like an absolute plodder, she needed the entirety of the straight to bridge the length gap between herself and the leaders before crossing the line a quarter length to the good. Nevertheless, the form looks reasonable with the next two being subsequent winners rated 75 and 72 with the trio over five lengths clear of the remainder. Befitting the racecourse evidence, she has a stout pedigree which is also suitable for her new discipline. Manduro has a strong 32% winners to runners rate while damsire Dalakhani is solid at 22.58%. The damline is teutonic in nature with the granddam being a half-sister to Davidoff and Denaro, while Don Cossack appears further back at 4/3. Though her credentials were solid, the sharp nature of Fakenham's circuit looked unlikely to play to Malakahna's strengths and she started the race at 12/1. Settling in mid-division, she stayed out of the well contested battle at the head of the field and as the leaders dropped away during the final lap, she loomed alongside Aliomaana on the cross section. Her rival was persistent but she had given best by the time they turned for home and Malakahna was ridden out for an eight length win with the remainder a distance behind. The form with the runner-up is decent although given the way the race transpired, she was perhaps flattered by the ease of her success. Her hurdling also left something to be desired as she completely missed the first, was tight at the fourth, stumbled after flattening three out and pecking at the last. Malakahna was given an opportunity to show her class in the listed fillies' hurdle at Aintree on Becher Chase day where she was sent off the 11/2 second favourite. Ridden prominently out wide in a very slowly ran affair, she clipped the first and got in close to the third, fourth and sixth. Though still in contention entering the straight, she was somehow outpaced at the distance and a fairly laboured one paced to the line, finishing a seven length fifth. Malakahna was last seen at Sandown a month ago for a four-runner class 3 contest where she started the 15/8 second favourite of four. Held up in touch off what was a reasonable pace in the heavy ground, her jumping was marked by steady and sometimes careless jumping. While an early departure and an unfit non-stayer assured Malakahna of at least a second place finish, she had absolutely no answer when the winner pressed on at the distance and left her thirteen lengths in his wake. Malakahna would not be completely out of this on her best form, and she may well be content whatever the conditions or pace composition. However, this would also give her less scope for improvement and she does have to account for her below par outings where her jumping left plenty to be desired.
tl;dr
Bulls Aye - Sole Scottish trained runner in the field. Won on this track on the flat but failed to progress and looks a doubtful stayer. Failed to show on hurdling debut and continued inability to settle will likely exacerbate an already tricky assignment.
Impulsive One - Flat winner for William Haggas who was fast and nimble when winning minor events at Plumpton and Huntingdon. Found out by Knight Salute at Kempton and Doncaster but showed improved form which sets standard in this contest. Sole runner at meeting for top yard which has won this race three times. Has strong prospects if the ground holds.
Inca Prince - Promising flat career ended with whimper but has been rejuvinated by hurdles. Unlucky not to win at Gowran on second start and Irish form was enough for him to make all and run out emphatic winner at Catterick on British debut. Made all over course and distance last month and while that race was run to suit, the time was still decent. Course form an asset and should give good account although this may be tougher.
Sonning - Winner on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise when scoring at Catterick. Fair effort in Plumpton novice before moderate show in Wincanton handicap. Plenty of speed and capable of jumping well. However, will likely need the sharpest of tests to be seen to full effect at this juncture.
Calvados - Modest but improving maiden on flat who made winning hurdles debut at Ballinrobe in August. Failed to score since but placed next three outings in good company before being unsuited by how Leopardstown Grade Two unfolded. Something to find but weight allowance will help and conditions may bring out further improvement. Jockey booking an interesting one for yard with good record at venue.
Innatendue - Yet to race over hurdles but two wins and two places from four French bumpers. Form has strands in high levels of AQPS scene although she does look decidedly slow and will probably find this too sharp first time.
Malakahna - Respectable form on flat in France and won on British debut at a Fakenham which looked unlikely to suit. Race rather fell apart for her there however, and she failed to justify her initial impression at Aintree and Sandown. Not without a shout at best but questions over her latest efforts, and her jumping, loom large.
If Soft side of Good to Soft
Strong prospects
1. Calvados
Reasonable prospects
2. Impulsive One
3. Inca Prince
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Innatendue
5. Malakahna
6. Sonning
Negligible prospects
7. Bulls Aye
If Good side of Good to Soft
Strong prospects
1. Impulsive One
Reasonable prospects
2. Calvados
3. Inca Prince
Feasible prospects
4. Sonning
Moderate prospects
5. Malakahna
6. Innatendue
Negligible prospects
7. Bulls Aye
Bachelors Hall
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Preview for tomorrow's fillies' race at Ludlow which, to my eye, looks rather uncompetitive given that Galah and Angels Landing have questions to answer. Doncaster's race on Thursday looks a little more interesting but I would be very surprised if a preview was forthcoming as I am meeting a friend after work tomorrow... Such is life. Still, it's nice that we finally get to see Ile de Jersey...
Abandoned last season, Ludlow's fillies' juvenile hurdle is set to be hosted for the fifth time having been established in 2017. The average winners' seasonal RPR of 114.88 essentially matches the standard at the venue. Castafiore and Miranda, who won in 2017 and 2019, would eventually score in Grade 2 company over fences and hurdles respectively. However, insofar as juvenile attainment is concerned, its most accomplished graduates were Hillcrest Fire and Via Delle Volte - who would reach the frame in the juvenile handicap at Cheltenham's fillies' meeting having finished unplaced in this race. Save for the Nicky Henderson debutant, this year's renewal looks to be of a typical standard as the more exposed participants have shown fair form while the unexposed entries do not have a huge amount of scope. A sharp, slightly undulating, right-handed circuit, Ludlow's winning DIs of 1.29 median, 1.50 mean, are in the higher third of British racecourses with its clear round and completion rates being very close to standard. Of the six set to face the starter, only Angels Landing has made the running over hurdles and that happened on just one occasion, although it was over this course and distance so a similar scenario may be in store. The latest going description was good to soft and with little more than drizzle and a gentle breeze expected in the morning, the field will not be subject to an especially searching test of stamina.
Galah bf Milton Harris f12-4-5 (72) 83 j4-1-2 (112) 101 109
Australia (Invincible Spirit){14-c}(0.68) 2/1 Counsel 4th Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
Ralph Beckett is amongst the more prolific suppliers of juvenile hurdlers to the division with fifty-five leaving Kimpton Down Stables to go hurdling since 2004/05. Fourteen of these have been winners, a healthy rate of 25.45%, and while just 25% improve for the switch the bulk of these do bring higher than average flat ratings. One such horse is Galah who finished her two-year-old season with a Thirsk nursery win to her name, and a rating of 81. Her second campaign saw her mark drop nine pounds and though she was not beaten far in four of her six outings in handicaps, a tendency to pull and hang right did compromise her efforts. Consequently, she changed hands for the relatively modest sum of 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Milton Harris team that has been flying this season. Her pedigree is an encouraging one for the game as Australia and Invincible Spirit have solid records as sire and damsire respectively, with their descendants often maintaining their flat form over hurdles. Uncle Counsel was a useful juvenile hurdler who finished fourth in a Summit Hurdle while Cinders and Ashes (3/2) and Minella Rocco (4/2) also appear on the damline. Galah's hurdles bow came in a quite well contested introductory hurdle at Newcastle on the Fighting Fifth card. Starting at 14/1, she raced keenly while held up towards the rear of a tight and steady bunch. She held every chance at the distance but though she was quite readily left behind by the two experienced rivals, she fared best of the newcomers, finishing upwards of three lengths ahead of the remainder. Her round of jumping was lightly tarnished by slight, novicey errors but was satisfactory on balance with her only real mistake being an awkward jump three from home where her path was impeded by a rival. She was out again a fortnight later at Cheltenham where her starting price of 28/1 suggested she may be overfaced. Galah was still quite fresh racing in the rear, but the hood and tie did see her travel more comfortably. She made a couple of positions going down the hill and turned into the straight with a fighting chance. The leader was able to get first run and after another not-bad round of hurdling, Galah's steady jump at the last cost her a stride or two of momentum. Nevertheless, while the first and second were out of sight, the latter an easy winner at Fontwell on Boxing Day, she was able to plug on for an honest third ahead of better fancied rivals who, to some degree, met trouble in running. Galah's next appearance came in a fillies' maiden at Doncaster over Christmas where she set a clear standard and was accordingly sent off the even money favourite. Held up towards the rear off a modest tempo, Galah only had one behind turning for home where the leader stole a march. Nevertheless, she was able to make steady headway in the straight and after jumping into the lead at the last, edged out a length victory on the run-in. Given the way the race unfolded, the performance can not be said to match her efforts at Newcastle or Cheltenham but she did not have to be at her best in any case. Galah returned to Doncaster for a listed filles' contest two weeks ago. The Irish raiding party set a tough standard, but Galah was still disappointing and ran according to her drift in the market from 5/1 during the morning to 12/1 at the off. She settled reasonably well in the rear and there were no major complaints to be made about her jumping. However, she had no response when asked for her effort three from home and the gap between herself and the principals would only grow throughout the straight. With Archie Bellamy taking off seven pounds, Galah has solid enough prospects at these weights. Nevertheless, she was given to unaccountably poor showings on the flat and while these were invariably atoned for, it was usually done so after a longer break.
Ile de Jersey bf Nicky Henderson j2-1-1 (-) - 118
Night Wish (Nononito){1-b}(0.54) 0.5 Friary Rock 1st 2m4f Beginners Chase, Wexford 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ile-de-jersey
Nicky Henderson is one of the stand out trainers of juvenile hurdlers and his record with French imports bringing hurdling experience is an impressive one. Since 2004/05, twenty-five of thirty-five such horses won during their initial campaigns and count amongst them accomplished sorts such as We Have A Dream, Peace and Co, Top Notch, Grandouet and Fusil Raffles. For all the transfer activity that has been taking place since the Spring, the yard’s first such recruit is a fairly recent acquisition in Ile de Jersey. Beginning her career with Patrice Quinton, whose five previous exports have yielded one winner in Cyclop, Ile de Jersey first saw the racecourse in early July when she took in a 3,700m contest at Sable. Taking in fifteen flights and tracking the leaders throughout, she jumped well over the first four flights, before making her first errors; trailing her hind legs through the fifth and completely missing the sixth. She was tight but better at the next and while she was early at the eleventh and rather missed three out, her overall hurdling was perfectly acceptable for a newcomer. She finished second to another debutant in the Macaire trained Ixia, who comes from the family of Azertyuiop and Bipbap, and was twenty lengths clear of the third who recently broke her duck in a Machecoul claimer. Ile de Jersey’s second outing came over an additional 100 metres at Vittel where she jumped very neatly and made only a minor error at the fifth. She led the pursuit of the runaway leader and after effortlessly passing him on the turn for home, won the race by fifteen lengths and a distance without having to be extended. Although the form of this contest amounts to very little, the second and fourth have managed to break their maidens. With her races coming over longer distances, it is no surprise that Ile de Jersey is not bred to be a speedy juvenile. Sire Night Wish, group class at up to twelve furlongs in Germany, is having his first crop of juveniles but is already off the mark with two winners in France. While not the most accomplished racehorse, this giant son of Sholokhov has a classic German pedigree (which also includes Melon at 4/4) and has the credentials to be a useful jumps sire. Ile de Jersey is out of a winning chaser at Saint-Brieuc who has also produced the prolific cross-country winner Dunquin, and is herself a half-sister to three other winning jumpers. Given her profile, Ile de Jersey does not look like an obvious speedy juvenile type and Ludlow on decent ground may be leaning on the sharp side. Nevertheless, she does have a good jump in her, she easily caught the clear leader at Vittel with a couple of furlongs to spare and her form sets a clear standard. Furthermore, in terms of sourcing, it could be interesting that she was ridden last time by a Felix de Giles who is very familiar with the Henderson operation that sent Punjabi and Doubly Guest to make winning debuts for the yard at Ludlow around this time of year. Ile de Jersey does have to prove her fitness, although the yard invariably have their French hurdles recruits ready to go straight away with their first time strike rate being a very healthy 57.14%
Angels Landing bf Ian Williams f6-1-3 (71) 76 j5-0-4 (100) 101 107
Fascinating Rock (Pivotal){7-a}(1.77) 5/3 Binocular 1st Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Having failed to make the track for Richard Fahey, Angels Landing started her career with Ian Williams in mid-June, running consistently and placing three times on her first five outings before getting off the mark in an eleven furlong Kempton handicap in October off 67. Representing the first crop of Fascinating Rock, but with a threadbare damline, Angels Landing started 5/2 joint favourite on her hurdling debut at Ludlow early the following month. Held up in touch and jumping abysmally, she was one paced in the straight before finishing a near five length third of seven. Her next outing came in a fillies' juvenile at Leicester where she was warmly fancied 13/8 favourite. Tracking the leaders, she was still given to novicey errors but there was a definite improvement in her hurdling. Always close up, she went into a narrow lead on the approach to two out and though readily beaten by the winner, she plugged on well enough to finish two and three quarter lengths clear of the remainder. This marked a step up on her debut, although the form was nothing out of the ordinary and her venture into pattern company next time at Aintree amounted to little. Starting at 33/1 having opened at 12/1 in the morning, Angels Landing raced in the rear and her short lived effort at the cross section was over by the time they reached the straight and she was pulled up before jumping two out. Apart from jumping to her right early on, and reaching at the sixth, Angels Landing did hurdle respectably and can perhaps be forgiven the performance due to the very testing conditions. A month later, Angels Landing was able to bounce back to post her best hurdling effort to date in a juvenile hurdle at Ludlow where she started a warm 10/3 second favourite. Establishing a clear lead early on, she jumped well for the most part and had all bar the winner in trouble leaving the back. Challenged on turning for home, she was soon chasing the winner's shadow and her hurdling rather deteriorated, but she still had enough to finish twenty-four lengths clear of the third. Her latest appearance came at Doncaster two weeks ago, although rather than joining Galah and a stablemate in the listed fillies' race, she took her place in a novice handicap over the same trip; running off a mark of 100. Although she was as low as 5/4 during the morning exchanges, Angels Landing drifted out to 9/4 at the off but still held onto favouritism. Tracking the leaders off a comparatively modest tempo, she was one paced in the straight but still maintained her position well into the closing stages before faltering on the run-in and merely clinging on for a eight length third. Seemingly content on any ground with proven form over a course where her likely easy lead will suit, Angels Landing has several factors in her favour. However, the manner in which she folded recently, in conjunction with her trainer's moderate recent form, does not instill iron clad confidence.
Austriana bf Sam Allwood f4-0-0 (60) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Teofilo (One Cool Cat){4-n}(0.82) 2/2 Irving 1st Fighting Fifth Hurdle (G1), Newcastle 2014, 2015
Starting her career with William Jarvis (only one winner from seventeen as a source of juveniles), Austriana started off reasonably well with a seven length fourth of seven in a mid-June, ten-furlong Newmarket novices stakes. However, her taking a keen hold would not abate with experience as finished no closer than fourteen lengths to the winner in similar contests at Newbury and Newmarket, and a Chelmsford handicap off 64 in August. Fetching 2,000gns in the Tattersalls September Online sale, Austriana joined a Sam Allwood yard that thus far has little experience in the sphere. Her pedigree is a compelling one for her new vocation as Teofilo has a fine winner to runner rate of 32.56% with his juveniles, and as well as being the niece of fairly useful winner Iolith, Austriana's cousin is the high-class hurdler, Irving. This did not translate into confidence ahead of her Catterick hurdling bow in November as she drifted from 50/1 to 80/1. Her free running nature did follow her from the flat as she pulled extremely hard in the rear and made numerous errors as a result before becoming detached leaving the back and pulling up before the last.
Dooby bf Sam Allwood b1-0-0 (-) 24 j1-0-0 (-) 47 63
Pearl Secret (Duke Of Marmalade){16-c}(3.00) 3/2 Ruz Gwenn Ha Du 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Nimes 2021
Juveniles who begin their careers in junior bumpers have a modest record when they go over hurdles. The winner to runner rate is a modest 5.15% while their first time strike rate stands at just 2.26%. Moreover, the record of those who recorded RPRs lower than 60 have just one win from two-hundred-and-eighty-five; which did not come first time out. Dooby made her debut in a Wetherby bumper early in December where she lost her position half a mile from home and finished tailed off. Both trainer and sire alike are zero from three with juvenile hurdlers, although Charlie Price has ridden more winners for the yard than stablemate Austriana's rider. The dam won a bumper but never raced over hurdles and the closest winning jumper on the damline appears at 3/2. Dooby made her hurdling debut in the same Doncaster contest won by Galah in December, starting at 150/1. She tracked the leader and jumped well enough before skewing at the fourth and lost her position approaching three out before finishing tailed off in last place.
Rattling Rosie grf John Groucott f5-0-1 (67) 71 j3-0-0 (74) 57 54
Lethal Force (Medicean){22-a}(1.67) 2/1 Endless Ocean 1st 3500 3YO Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2008
Formerly with Tom Dascombe, Rattling Rosie's flat mark of 67 is just about acceptable in the context of this division and the damline does feature winners such as Endless Ocean (2/1), Call Me Bubbles (3/2) and Solarius (4/4). However, Lethal Force is currently on thirty-five runs in the division without a win and the dam achieved little in two starts over jumps. Rattling Rosie's switch to the division perhaps had less to do with providing an opportunity for her trainer's first winner in the sphere, and more to do with her failure of a stalls test. Her hurdles bow came at Bangor in November where, starting at 100/1, she raced in the rear and jumped awkwardly. Though she made minor headway, passing beaten horses, she still finished fifty-four lengths adrift. Her second appearance came at Market Rasen where she was again clumsy, cautious and awkward in the rear before being beaten forty-four lengths in a weaker contest. Rattling Rosie's third outing came at Hereford in the new year where she pulled hard in midfield, skewed at the first, was big at the second and blundered badly at the fourth from where she lost her position and ultimately finished an eighty-four length seventh. This earned Rattling Rosie a mark of 74 which overestimates her hurdling performances to date while still leaving her with stones to find with the best of these.
tl;dr
Galah - Four time winner on the flat and confirmed promising hurdles efforts at Newcastle and Cheltenham with decisive win at Doncaster. Disappointed on return to that venue in listed contest and may require longer break in order to bounce back. Solid enough form claims otherwise.
Ile de Jersey - Ex-French, second to well-bred debutant at Sable and well clear of remainder before off the mark in bloodless fashion at Vittel over 3800m. Bred to appreciate further in time but with leading yard with fine first time strike rate which also introduced Punjabi at this venue in January 2007.
Angels Landing - Up there with best of these on flat and has placed on all four completed starts over hurdles without winning. Best effort came at this track on penultimate outing and lead is probably hers if she wants it. Not disgraced in recent Doncaster handicap but manner of her folding in conjunciton with recent stable form will be of concern.
Austriana - Intriguingly bred and debut flat outing at Newmarket not without promise in isolation. However, pulled hard on all four runs in that prior to inexpensive sale and did so again on hurdling bow at Catterick in November.
Dooby - Poor on sole bumper start and while modicum of promise at Doncaster behind Galah, still finished a tailed off last. Much to prove.
Rattling Rosie - Fair maiden for Tom Dascombe but three hurdles outings have resulted in a mark of 74 which she has yet to earn.
Outstanding prospects
1. Ile de Jersey
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Galah
3. Angels Landing
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
4. Dooby
5. Austriana
6. Rattling Rosie
Abandoned last season, Ludlow's fillies' juvenile hurdle is set to be hosted for the fifth time having been established in 2017. The average winners' seasonal RPR of 114.88 essentially matches the standard at the venue. Castafiore and Miranda, who won in 2017 and 2019, would eventually score in Grade 2 company over fences and hurdles respectively. However, insofar as juvenile attainment is concerned, its most accomplished graduates were Hillcrest Fire and Via Delle Volte - who would reach the frame in the juvenile handicap at Cheltenham's fillies' meeting having finished unplaced in this race. Save for the Nicky Henderson debutant, this year's renewal looks to be of a typical standard as the more exposed participants have shown fair form while the unexposed entries do not have a huge amount of scope. A sharp, slightly undulating, right-handed circuit, Ludlow's winning DIs of 1.29 median, 1.50 mean, are in the higher third of British racecourses with its clear round and completion rates being very close to standard. Of the six set to face the starter, only Angels Landing has made the running over hurdles and that happened on just one occasion, although it was over this course and distance so a similar scenario may be in store. The latest going description was good to soft and with little more than drizzle and a gentle breeze expected in the morning, the field will not be subject to an especially searching test of stamina.
Galah bf Milton Harris f12-4-5 (72) 83 j4-1-2 (112) 101 109
Australia (Invincible Spirit){14-c}(0.68) 2/1 Counsel 4th Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
Ralph Beckett is amongst the more prolific suppliers of juvenile hurdlers to the division with fifty-five leaving Kimpton Down Stables to go hurdling since 2004/05. Fourteen of these have been winners, a healthy rate of 25.45%, and while just 25% improve for the switch the bulk of these do bring higher than average flat ratings. One such horse is Galah who finished her two-year-old season with a Thirsk nursery win to her name, and a rating of 81. Her second campaign saw her mark drop nine pounds and though she was not beaten far in four of her six outings in handicaps, a tendency to pull and hang right did compromise her efforts. Consequently, she changed hands for the relatively modest sum of 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Milton Harris team that has been flying this season. Her pedigree is an encouraging one for the game as Australia and Invincible Spirit have solid records as sire and damsire respectively, with their descendants often maintaining their flat form over hurdles. Uncle Counsel was a useful juvenile hurdler who finished fourth in a Summit Hurdle while Cinders and Ashes (3/2) and Minella Rocco (4/2) also appear on the damline. Galah's hurdles bow came in a quite well contested introductory hurdle at Newcastle on the Fighting Fifth card. Starting at 14/1, she raced keenly while held up towards the rear of a tight and steady bunch. She held every chance at the distance but though she was quite readily left behind by the two experienced rivals, she fared best of the newcomers, finishing upwards of three lengths ahead of the remainder. Her round of jumping was lightly tarnished by slight, novicey errors but was satisfactory on balance with her only real mistake being an awkward jump three from home where her path was impeded by a rival. She was out again a fortnight later at Cheltenham where her starting price of 28/1 suggested she may be overfaced. Galah was still quite fresh racing in the rear, but the hood and tie did see her travel more comfortably. She made a couple of positions going down the hill and turned into the straight with a fighting chance. The leader was able to get first run and after another not-bad round of hurdling, Galah's steady jump at the last cost her a stride or two of momentum. Nevertheless, while the first and second were out of sight, the latter an easy winner at Fontwell on Boxing Day, she was able to plug on for an honest third ahead of better fancied rivals who, to some degree, met trouble in running. Galah's next appearance came in a fillies' maiden at Doncaster over Christmas where she set a clear standard and was accordingly sent off the even money favourite. Held up towards the rear off a modest tempo, Galah only had one behind turning for home where the leader stole a march. Nevertheless, she was able to make steady headway in the straight and after jumping into the lead at the last, edged out a length victory on the run-in. Given the way the race unfolded, the performance can not be said to match her efforts at Newcastle or Cheltenham but she did not have to be at her best in any case. Galah returned to Doncaster for a listed filles' contest two weeks ago. The Irish raiding party set a tough standard, but Galah was still disappointing and ran according to her drift in the market from 5/1 during the morning to 12/1 at the off. She settled reasonably well in the rear and there were no major complaints to be made about her jumping. However, she had no response when asked for her effort three from home and the gap between herself and the principals would only grow throughout the straight. With Archie Bellamy taking off seven pounds, Galah has solid enough prospects at these weights. Nevertheless, she was given to unaccountably poor showings on the flat and while these were invariably atoned for, it was usually done so after a longer break.
Ile de Jersey bf Nicky Henderson j2-1-1 (-) - 118
Night Wish (Nononito){1-b}(0.54) 0.5 Friary Rock 1st 2m4f Beginners Chase, Wexford 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ile-de-jersey
Nicky Henderson is one of the stand out trainers of juvenile hurdlers and his record with French imports bringing hurdling experience is an impressive one. Since 2004/05, twenty-five of thirty-five such horses won during their initial campaigns and count amongst them accomplished sorts such as We Have A Dream, Peace and Co, Top Notch, Grandouet and Fusil Raffles. For all the transfer activity that has been taking place since the Spring, the yard’s first such recruit is a fairly recent acquisition in Ile de Jersey. Beginning her career with Patrice Quinton, whose five previous exports have yielded one winner in Cyclop, Ile de Jersey first saw the racecourse in early July when she took in a 3,700m contest at Sable. Taking in fifteen flights and tracking the leaders throughout, she jumped well over the first four flights, before making her first errors; trailing her hind legs through the fifth and completely missing the sixth. She was tight but better at the next and while she was early at the eleventh and rather missed three out, her overall hurdling was perfectly acceptable for a newcomer. She finished second to another debutant in the Macaire trained Ixia, who comes from the family of Azertyuiop and Bipbap, and was twenty lengths clear of the third who recently broke her duck in a Machecoul claimer. Ile de Jersey’s second outing came over an additional 100 metres at Vittel where she jumped very neatly and made only a minor error at the fifth. She led the pursuit of the runaway leader and after effortlessly passing him on the turn for home, won the race by fifteen lengths and a distance without having to be extended. Although the form of this contest amounts to very little, the second and fourth have managed to break their maidens. With her races coming over longer distances, it is no surprise that Ile de Jersey is not bred to be a speedy juvenile. Sire Night Wish, group class at up to twelve furlongs in Germany, is having his first crop of juveniles but is already off the mark with two winners in France. While not the most accomplished racehorse, this giant son of Sholokhov has a classic German pedigree (which also includes Melon at 4/4) and has the credentials to be a useful jumps sire. Ile de Jersey is out of a winning chaser at Saint-Brieuc who has also produced the prolific cross-country winner Dunquin, and is herself a half-sister to three other winning jumpers. Given her profile, Ile de Jersey does not look like an obvious speedy juvenile type and Ludlow on decent ground may be leaning on the sharp side. Nevertheless, she does have a good jump in her, she easily caught the clear leader at Vittel with a couple of furlongs to spare and her form sets a clear standard. Furthermore, in terms of sourcing, it could be interesting that she was ridden last time by a Felix de Giles who is very familiar with the Henderson operation that sent Punjabi and Doubly Guest to make winning debuts for the yard at Ludlow around this time of year. Ile de Jersey does have to prove her fitness, although the yard invariably have their French hurdles recruits ready to go straight away with their first time strike rate being a very healthy 57.14%
Angels Landing bf Ian Williams f6-1-3 (71) 76 j5-0-4 (100) 101 107
Fascinating Rock (Pivotal){7-a}(1.77) 5/3 Binocular 1st Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Having failed to make the track for Richard Fahey, Angels Landing started her career with Ian Williams in mid-June, running consistently and placing three times on her first five outings before getting off the mark in an eleven furlong Kempton handicap in October off 67. Representing the first crop of Fascinating Rock, but with a threadbare damline, Angels Landing started 5/2 joint favourite on her hurdling debut at Ludlow early the following month. Held up in touch and jumping abysmally, she was one paced in the straight before finishing a near five length third of seven. Her next outing came in a fillies' juvenile at Leicester where she was warmly fancied 13/8 favourite. Tracking the leaders, she was still given to novicey errors but there was a definite improvement in her hurdling. Always close up, she went into a narrow lead on the approach to two out and though readily beaten by the winner, she plugged on well enough to finish two and three quarter lengths clear of the remainder. This marked a step up on her debut, although the form was nothing out of the ordinary and her venture into pattern company next time at Aintree amounted to little. Starting at 33/1 having opened at 12/1 in the morning, Angels Landing raced in the rear and her short lived effort at the cross section was over by the time they reached the straight and she was pulled up before jumping two out. Apart from jumping to her right early on, and reaching at the sixth, Angels Landing did hurdle respectably and can perhaps be forgiven the performance due to the very testing conditions. A month later, Angels Landing was able to bounce back to post her best hurdling effort to date in a juvenile hurdle at Ludlow where she started a warm 10/3 second favourite. Establishing a clear lead early on, she jumped well for the most part and had all bar the winner in trouble leaving the back. Challenged on turning for home, she was soon chasing the winner's shadow and her hurdling rather deteriorated, but she still had enough to finish twenty-four lengths clear of the third. Her latest appearance came at Doncaster two weeks ago, although rather than joining Galah and a stablemate in the listed fillies' race, she took her place in a novice handicap over the same trip; running off a mark of 100. Although she was as low as 5/4 during the morning exchanges, Angels Landing drifted out to 9/4 at the off but still held onto favouritism. Tracking the leaders off a comparatively modest tempo, she was one paced in the straight but still maintained her position well into the closing stages before faltering on the run-in and merely clinging on for a eight length third. Seemingly content on any ground with proven form over a course where her likely easy lead will suit, Angels Landing has several factors in her favour. However, the manner in which she folded recently, in conjunction with her trainer's moderate recent form, does not instill iron clad confidence.
Austriana bf Sam Allwood f4-0-0 (60) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Teofilo (One Cool Cat){4-n}(0.82) 2/2 Irving 1st Fighting Fifth Hurdle (G1), Newcastle 2014, 2015
Starting her career with William Jarvis (only one winner from seventeen as a source of juveniles), Austriana started off reasonably well with a seven length fourth of seven in a mid-June, ten-furlong Newmarket novices stakes. However, her taking a keen hold would not abate with experience as finished no closer than fourteen lengths to the winner in similar contests at Newbury and Newmarket, and a Chelmsford handicap off 64 in August. Fetching 2,000gns in the Tattersalls September Online sale, Austriana joined a Sam Allwood yard that thus far has little experience in the sphere. Her pedigree is a compelling one for her new vocation as Teofilo has a fine winner to runner rate of 32.56% with his juveniles, and as well as being the niece of fairly useful winner Iolith, Austriana's cousin is the high-class hurdler, Irving. This did not translate into confidence ahead of her Catterick hurdling bow in November as she drifted from 50/1 to 80/1. Her free running nature did follow her from the flat as she pulled extremely hard in the rear and made numerous errors as a result before becoming detached leaving the back and pulling up before the last.
Dooby bf Sam Allwood b1-0-0 (-) 24 j1-0-0 (-) 47 63
Pearl Secret (Duke Of Marmalade){16-c}(3.00) 3/2 Ruz Gwenn Ha Du 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Nimes 2021
Juveniles who begin their careers in junior bumpers have a modest record when they go over hurdles. The winner to runner rate is a modest 5.15% while their first time strike rate stands at just 2.26%. Moreover, the record of those who recorded RPRs lower than 60 have just one win from two-hundred-and-eighty-five; which did not come first time out. Dooby made her debut in a Wetherby bumper early in December where she lost her position half a mile from home and finished tailed off. Both trainer and sire alike are zero from three with juvenile hurdlers, although Charlie Price has ridden more winners for the yard than stablemate Austriana's rider. The dam won a bumper but never raced over hurdles and the closest winning jumper on the damline appears at 3/2. Dooby made her hurdling debut in the same Doncaster contest won by Galah in December, starting at 150/1. She tracked the leader and jumped well enough before skewing at the fourth and lost her position approaching three out before finishing tailed off in last place.
Rattling Rosie grf John Groucott f5-0-1 (67) 71 j3-0-0 (74) 57 54
Lethal Force (Medicean){22-a}(1.67) 2/1 Endless Ocean 1st 3500 3YO Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2008
Formerly with Tom Dascombe, Rattling Rosie's flat mark of 67 is just about acceptable in the context of this division and the damline does feature winners such as Endless Ocean (2/1), Call Me Bubbles (3/2) and Solarius (4/4). However, Lethal Force is currently on thirty-five runs in the division without a win and the dam achieved little in two starts over jumps. Rattling Rosie's switch to the division perhaps had less to do with providing an opportunity for her trainer's first winner in the sphere, and more to do with her failure of a stalls test. Her hurdles bow came at Bangor in November where, starting at 100/1, she raced in the rear and jumped awkwardly. Though she made minor headway, passing beaten horses, she still finished fifty-four lengths adrift. Her second appearance came at Market Rasen where she was again clumsy, cautious and awkward in the rear before being beaten forty-four lengths in a weaker contest. Rattling Rosie's third outing came at Hereford in the new year where she pulled hard in midfield, skewed at the first, was big at the second and blundered badly at the fourth from where she lost her position and ultimately finished an eighty-four length seventh. This earned Rattling Rosie a mark of 74 which overestimates her hurdling performances to date while still leaving her with stones to find with the best of these.
tl;dr
Galah - Four time winner on the flat and confirmed promising hurdles efforts at Newcastle and Cheltenham with decisive win at Doncaster. Disappointed on return to that venue in listed contest and may require longer break in order to bounce back. Solid enough form claims otherwise.
Ile de Jersey - Ex-French, second to well-bred debutant at Sable and well clear of remainder before off the mark in bloodless fashion at Vittel over 3800m. Bred to appreciate further in time but with leading yard with fine first time strike rate which also introduced Punjabi at this venue in January 2007.
Angels Landing - Up there with best of these on flat and has placed on all four completed starts over hurdles without winning. Best effort came at this track on penultimate outing and lead is probably hers if she wants it. Not disgraced in recent Doncaster handicap but manner of her folding in conjunciton with recent stable form will be of concern.
Austriana - Intriguingly bred and debut flat outing at Newmarket not without promise in isolation. However, pulled hard on all four runs in that prior to inexpensive sale and did so again on hurdling bow at Catterick in November.
Dooby - Poor on sole bumper start and while modicum of promise at Doncaster behind Galah, still finished a tailed off last. Much to prove.
Rattling Rosie - Fair maiden for Tom Dascombe but three hurdles outings have resulted in a mark of 74 which she has yet to earn.
Outstanding prospects
1. Ile de Jersey
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Galah
3. Angels Landing
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
4. Dooby
5. Austriana
6. Rattling Rosie
Bachelors Hall
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The preview for tomorrow's race at Hereford started off as an essay. However, before long, I was struggling to keep my eyes open and my thoughts were everywhere and nowhere. Whether it's because I'm tired from a long day at work, or it's simply a dire race is anybody's guess. For what it's worth, here's all I managed.
The average winning juvenile hurdler at Hereford has a seasonal RPR of just 109.63 while the average participant has a seasonal RPR of 80.03. These figures are each in the bottom ten of British and Irish racecourses. The course is set to host its second running of this fillies' maiden hurdle, the first of which was won by Raffles Gitane who went on to place in the Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham's April meeting. This year's renewal, however, looks par for the course with the four experienced runners failing to win from a combined fifteen starts, and the four newcomers bringing either poor form or patchy profiles. Just north of the city described by Richard I as "Hereford in Wales", the course is right-handed, mostly flat and has a sharp home turn. Its average winning DIs of 1.25 median, 1.42 mean, are on the higher side of standard, although its completion rate of 81.36% is the tenth lowest in the country. The circuit also provides a decent jumping test with a clear round rate of 95.34%; a test which is especially for hurdling debutants whose rate of 90.91% is lower only at Lingfield and Taunton amongst the British racecourses. The going has most recently been reported as soft, heavy in places, with strong winds potentially offsetting the forecast overnight showers. Pump It Up has been shown to set decent gallops in the past and while a couple of rivals have raced prominently, she will most probably be responsible for setting a decent pace.
Fiamette chf Jo Davis f3-0-0 (56) 48 j5-0-0 (88) 87 94
Free Eagle (Dr Fong){13-e}(0.57) 2/1 High Stratos 3rd 2m4f Conditions Hurdle, Punchestown 2015
Finishing eighth on all three starts on the all weather last winter, Fiamette's flat mark of 56 exceeded her accomplishments. Leaving Anthony Carson for Jo Davis, she joins a trainer who has had a couple of winning juveniles, although none of her twelve with official marks improved on their flat form. Free Eagle is a positive as he enjoyed three winners from his first crop, and the damline has several winning jumpers nearby in High Stratos (2/1), Poet (2/1), Vanishing Point (2/2) and Alum Bay (3/1). There were few signs of her bettering her flat showings on her jumps debut at Stratford back in August. Racing in a first time visor, she gave chase to the two leaders and was not beaten off until dropping away towards the end of the back. Her hurdling was slow and steady to begin with, but she jumped better when ridden into her flights. Fiamette returned after a sixty-six day break for a warm looking contest at Ffos Las where she started at 150/1 having opened at 66/1. Tracking the leaders from the outset, apart from skewing slightly at the first and clipping the second, there was little complaint to be made of her jumping. She was still in contention turning into the straight and only began to lose touch approaching the penultimate flight from where she would finish a seventeen length fourth. Fiamette was helped by the underperformances of more fancied runners, with the subsequently pattern class Moka de Vassy finishing behind, but it still marked a career best. Her next outing came at Fontwell in early December where she was supported during the day from 33/1 to 10/1 before settling on 14/1 at the off. Her jumping took a slight regression as she hit the top of the second and got in very close to the sixth before finding herself comprehensively outpaced by the front three in the market. Nevertheless, she only failed by a neck to snatch third on the line and was twenty-eight lengths clear of the remainder. Shaping very much like a stayer, Fiamette's most recent outings have come in handicaps over intermediate distances at Fontwell later in December, and at Ffos Las a fortnight ago. In the former contest, running off 98, she attracted support during the day and started the 9/2 second favourite. Setting off in mid division, she took closer order on the second circuit but made no impression from leaving the back before flattening the penultimate flight and finishing a twenty-four length fifth. Dropped to 92 for her latest appearance at Ffos Las, where she again attracted support. She jumped decently, if tight on occasions, and though shaken up at the end of the back, was back on the bit when close and untidy three from home. Though not a serious mistake, it did put an end to her effort and she would lose fourth close to the line where she finished just over twelve lengths behind the winner. This was a step back in the right direction and though Hereford would typically be on the sharp side, the conditions and pace angle are similar to what she enjoyed at Ffos Las in October. Furthermore, the visor which saw her run well on that occasion has been reapplied and the yard has had a winning juvenile at the course. Fiamette would have little more than a few pounds to find on best form, and with her rivals being less likely than herself to enjoy these conditions, a decent performance would not be unexpected.
Hang Up bf Fergal O'Brien f4-0-1 (65) 71
Lope de Vega (Authorized){1-l}(1.11) 3/1 Colophony 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (105), Huntingdon 2008
Wearing a hood when making her racecourse debut at Sandown in June, Hang Up looked in need of the experience but was beaten by less than five lengths when sixth of eight behind a couple of next time out winners. Kept to around ten furlongs at Wolverhampton a month later, she ran to a similar level when a four and a quarter length third in a novice fillies stakes. Hang Up was unable to sustain these efforts in a couple of appearances at Kempton in October where she was beaten twenty-three lengths in an eleven furlong maiden, and the best part of twelve lengths in a twelve furlong handicap off 68. Staying in the colours of Malcolm Denmark, she left James Fanshawe, whose former inmates have a 14.81% winner to runner rate in the division, to join a Fergal O'Brien yard with a respectable rate of 23.81%; as well as a first time rate of 15.38% with flat recruits. Sire Lope de Vega's winner to runner rate of 17.39% is little better than fair and his progeny's improvement rate of 28.57% is modest. Nevertheless, Authorized is doing well as a damsire (29.41% WR) and the third dam has produced a pair of winning jumpers in Colophony and Demographic. Hang Up will have to account for her two disappointing efforts in the Autumn, but her Summer form is just about the strongest brought from the flat. Her profile is such that a decent showing can not be discounted, although Hereford is not the most forgiving for a newcomer to the sphere.
Madam Malarkey brf Nigel Twiston-Davies b2-0-0 (-) - 42
Pether's Moon (Presenting){1-l}(0.33) 1/0 Grenfell P-T-P Final Hunters' Chase, Cheltenham 2009
Juvenile hurdlers who started off in bumpers have just a 2.36% first-time strike rate and none of the seven such trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies were able to oblige. Nevertheless, Mahogany Blaze did finish third on his hurdling debut for the Naunton based handler; whose winner to runner rate with juveniles is a healthy 32.56%. His latest former bumper horse to try her hand in the sphere is Madam Malarkey. The daughter of a prolific pointer, she will be her sire's first representative in the division. Madam Malarkey is the niece of winning jumpers Shining Light and Brave King, good chaser Castle Warden appears at 3/1 on the damline, while Triumph third Al-'Alawi and Toirdealbhach came from the fourth dam before becoming sires.
*Started favourite but ran no kind of race at Warwick on debut
*43l last at Taunton on second outing
Miss Curiosity bf Seamus Mullins b3-0-1 (-) 87
Life Force (Zerpour){u}(0.33) 2/1 Los Amigos 2m5½f 0-140 Rated Chase, Fairyhouse 2015
First juv for Life Force - very unlikely type although full-brother Vale Of York has had winners in France
2/1 Tom Horn 2/1 Shoughall's Boy 3/1 Jamalade 4/1 Fairy King, State Case 4/3 Coole Avenue
ex-Bumper horses poor in juvs but improved on debut to finish second at Newbury in December - easy winner followed up at Cheltenham next time but form in behind not working out.
Seamus Mullins 12.07% WR, 3.64% FTO
Pretentieuse bf Deborah Faulkner j2-0-0 (-) 56 58
Great Pretender (Limnos){17-b}(0.45) 1/0 Limaranta 70.0 2nd Prix Bournosienne (G3,3yH), Auteul 2006
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/pretentieuse
(Patrice Lenogue) €3,000 Arqana Summer
Pretty good pedigree, poor form, cheap purchase.
0.5 Ri 57.0 1.3800m HcC 0.5 Emila Romagna 55.0 1.4yC Ploermel 2/1 Limarauth, Mango Bay 3/1 Rash Moment 4/1 Actinium
Pump It Up chf Richard Spencer f12-1-3 (49) 59 j4-0-1 (93) 83 98
Charming Thought (Pivotal){1-l}(2.08) 3/1 General Eliott* 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (100), Market Rasen 2011
***Preview from Doncaster where she finished second having very much got the run of the race
"Though rated just forty-nine on the flat, Pump It Up was at least able to win in that sphere, landing a twelve furlong heavy ground handicap at Windsor off 46 back in August. Another representative of Charming Thought, the closest winning jumper on the damline is handicapper General Elliott at 3/1, while 1989 Kennel Gate winner Arden shows up at 4/1. Unfancied on her hurdling debut in a fillies' maiden at Fakenham in late October, Pump It Up started prominently but lost her place towards the end of the first circuit. One paced in midfield during the second lap, she plugged on for a forty-two length fourth, jumping reasonably if slightly awkward in the process. Her latest appearance came in another fillies' maiden at Leicester six weeks ago where she started at 28/1. Leading at a reasonable clip, she jumped well apart from clipping the fourth. Joined by her rivals towards the end of the back, she was outpaced by the market leaders at the top of the straight, plugging on to finish a fourteen length fourth of seven. This probably marked a new career best for Pump It Up although the form has been done no favours by the first three who were each outclassed next time. An honest filly who can jump well, Pump It Up could be competitive off her mark of 86, although that would not be enough to give her a winning chance here."
*Subsequently flopped when attempting same tactics in better race at Lingfield last time.
Simply Red chf Oliver Greenalll b2-0-0 (-) 57 j2-0-0 (-) 74 90
Proconsul (Motivator){22-d}(0.76) 2/1 Teela 4th Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Sedgefield 2010
***Preview from Doncaster where she finished fifth, making little impression on Tiki Fire
Another to have started her career in junior bumpers, Simply Red was beaten thirty-four lengths at both Market Rasen in October, and Aintree in November. Her fourth dam produced a winning novice hurdler in Resist The Force, but closer relatives achieved very little over jumps and sire Proconsul has yet to have any winners of any description. Simply Red made her hurdling debut at Market Rasen early this month where she started at 100/1. Held up in the rear, making a few minor errors, she never remotely threatened to get involved although she did pass a few beaten horses in the straight to finish a twenty-three length fourth. The form looked quite modest beforehand and has been done few favours by those who have been out since.
*stable has been quite tepid recently but does have two winners and place from seven juveniles at Hereford
Tiki Fire bf Neil King f7-0-3 (64) 70 j4-0-1 (92) 90 96
Awtaad (Big Shuffle){1-h}(1.46) 3/2 Dictum 1st 2m3f Novices' Chase, Haydock 2007
***Preview from Doncaster listed race where she finished tailed off
Initially with Karl Burke, Tiki Fire placed twice as a two-year-old at Haydock and Newcastle and would largely hold her form on four outings this term without troubling the judge. Selling for 10,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale, she joined a Neil King yard with healthy winner to runner and improvement rates of 31.25% and 54.05% respectively. Sire Awtaad is another first crop sire, but while the Cape Cross line does get juveniles, Awtaad himself is not the tallest, was untried beyond a mile and his three runners to date have achieved little. Tiki Fire is quite tenuously related to Don Cossack (4/3) though the decent chaser Dictum is a slightly closer relative at 3/2. Making her hurdling debut in a fillies' contest at Fakenham, Tiki Fire was quite weak in the market. Racing in a first time hood, she never left the rear of the field and made a couple of serious blunders before finishing a tailed off last. With such a lamentable effort along with the yard's juveniles rarely firing first time, better could have been anticipated for her next outing which came at Warwick early last month. Starting at 100/1, Tiki Fire was once again waited with, hopping over the first and doing so again when landing atop the second. She was tight at the third but was better at the next and was in the process of making decent headway when briefly losing her footing on landing at the fifth. Though she picked up the bit soon enough, her leaving her hind legs in the sixth and stumbling badly cost her valuable ground and momentum. Tiki Fire did her best to get back within shouting distance but the race was gone by the time she entered the straight and after being slow away from two out, would merely plug on to finish fourth. Her effort was better than the bare result suggests and though easy in the market beforehand, she went into last month's Doncaster contest with feasible prospects. Racing in midfield, Tiki Fire was some way off the pace turning for home, but was still able to get first run on the reopposing Galah. Her round of jumping was not as clean, as she clipped the first, was untidy at the second, tight at the fourth and was not smoothly away from three out. Headed by Galah approaching the last, without having caught the runaway leader, she could only plug on behind the front pair, four and a half lengths clear of the remainder. Tiki Fire was not disgraced on this occasion and posted her best performance to date over hurdles. However, there is no reason why she might reverse placing with Galah and the yard's horses have not been running to form.*
*(yard has since been in better form)
*Yard one from two at Hereford (both prior to 2010)
Strong prospects
1. Fiamette
Reasonable prospects
2. Tiki Fire
3. Pump It Up
4. Hang Up
Feasible prospects
5. Simply Red
Moderate prospects
6. Miss Curiosity
7. Madam Malarkey
Negligible prospects
8. Pretentieuse
The average winning juvenile hurdler at Hereford has a seasonal RPR of just 109.63 while the average participant has a seasonal RPR of 80.03. These figures are each in the bottom ten of British and Irish racecourses. The course is set to host its second running of this fillies' maiden hurdle, the first of which was won by Raffles Gitane who went on to place in the Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham's April meeting. This year's renewal, however, looks par for the course with the four experienced runners failing to win from a combined fifteen starts, and the four newcomers bringing either poor form or patchy profiles. Just north of the city described by Richard I as "Hereford in Wales", the course is right-handed, mostly flat and has a sharp home turn. Its average winning DIs of 1.25 median, 1.42 mean, are on the higher side of standard, although its completion rate of 81.36% is the tenth lowest in the country. The circuit also provides a decent jumping test with a clear round rate of 95.34%; a test which is especially for hurdling debutants whose rate of 90.91% is lower only at Lingfield and Taunton amongst the British racecourses. The going has most recently been reported as soft, heavy in places, with strong winds potentially offsetting the forecast overnight showers. Pump It Up has been shown to set decent gallops in the past and while a couple of rivals have raced prominently, she will most probably be responsible for setting a decent pace.
Fiamette chf Jo Davis f3-0-0 (56) 48 j5-0-0 (88) 87 94
Free Eagle (Dr Fong){13-e}(0.57) 2/1 High Stratos 3rd 2m4f Conditions Hurdle, Punchestown 2015
Finishing eighth on all three starts on the all weather last winter, Fiamette's flat mark of 56 exceeded her accomplishments. Leaving Anthony Carson for Jo Davis, she joins a trainer who has had a couple of winning juveniles, although none of her twelve with official marks improved on their flat form. Free Eagle is a positive as he enjoyed three winners from his first crop, and the damline has several winning jumpers nearby in High Stratos (2/1), Poet (2/1), Vanishing Point (2/2) and Alum Bay (3/1). There were few signs of her bettering her flat showings on her jumps debut at Stratford back in August. Racing in a first time visor, she gave chase to the two leaders and was not beaten off until dropping away towards the end of the back. Her hurdling was slow and steady to begin with, but she jumped better when ridden into her flights. Fiamette returned after a sixty-six day break for a warm looking contest at Ffos Las where she started at 150/1 having opened at 66/1. Tracking the leaders from the outset, apart from skewing slightly at the first and clipping the second, there was little complaint to be made of her jumping. She was still in contention turning into the straight and only began to lose touch approaching the penultimate flight from where she would finish a seventeen length fourth. Fiamette was helped by the underperformances of more fancied runners, with the subsequently pattern class Moka de Vassy finishing behind, but it still marked a career best. Her next outing came at Fontwell in early December where she was supported during the day from 33/1 to 10/1 before settling on 14/1 at the off. Her jumping took a slight regression as she hit the top of the second and got in very close to the sixth before finding herself comprehensively outpaced by the front three in the market. Nevertheless, she only failed by a neck to snatch third on the line and was twenty-eight lengths clear of the remainder. Shaping very much like a stayer, Fiamette's most recent outings have come in handicaps over intermediate distances at Fontwell later in December, and at Ffos Las a fortnight ago. In the former contest, running off 98, she attracted support during the day and started the 9/2 second favourite. Setting off in mid division, she took closer order on the second circuit but made no impression from leaving the back before flattening the penultimate flight and finishing a twenty-four length fifth. Dropped to 92 for her latest appearance at Ffos Las, where she again attracted support. She jumped decently, if tight on occasions, and though shaken up at the end of the back, was back on the bit when close and untidy three from home. Though not a serious mistake, it did put an end to her effort and she would lose fourth close to the line where she finished just over twelve lengths behind the winner. This was a step back in the right direction and though Hereford would typically be on the sharp side, the conditions and pace angle are similar to what she enjoyed at Ffos Las in October. Furthermore, the visor which saw her run well on that occasion has been reapplied and the yard has had a winning juvenile at the course. Fiamette would have little more than a few pounds to find on best form, and with her rivals being less likely than herself to enjoy these conditions, a decent performance would not be unexpected.
Hang Up bf Fergal O'Brien f4-0-1 (65) 71
Lope de Vega (Authorized){1-l}(1.11) 3/1 Colophony 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (105), Huntingdon 2008
Wearing a hood when making her racecourse debut at Sandown in June, Hang Up looked in need of the experience but was beaten by less than five lengths when sixth of eight behind a couple of next time out winners. Kept to around ten furlongs at Wolverhampton a month later, she ran to a similar level when a four and a quarter length third in a novice fillies stakes. Hang Up was unable to sustain these efforts in a couple of appearances at Kempton in October where she was beaten twenty-three lengths in an eleven furlong maiden, and the best part of twelve lengths in a twelve furlong handicap off 68. Staying in the colours of Malcolm Denmark, she left James Fanshawe, whose former inmates have a 14.81% winner to runner rate in the division, to join a Fergal O'Brien yard with a respectable rate of 23.81%; as well as a first time rate of 15.38% with flat recruits. Sire Lope de Vega's winner to runner rate of 17.39% is little better than fair and his progeny's improvement rate of 28.57% is modest. Nevertheless, Authorized is doing well as a damsire (29.41% WR) and the third dam has produced a pair of winning jumpers in Colophony and Demographic. Hang Up will have to account for her two disappointing efforts in the Autumn, but her Summer form is just about the strongest brought from the flat. Her profile is such that a decent showing can not be discounted, although Hereford is not the most forgiving for a newcomer to the sphere.
Madam Malarkey brf Nigel Twiston-Davies b2-0-0 (-) - 42
Pether's Moon (Presenting){1-l}(0.33) 1/0 Grenfell P-T-P Final Hunters' Chase, Cheltenham 2009
Juvenile hurdlers who started off in bumpers have just a 2.36% first-time strike rate and none of the seven such trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies were able to oblige. Nevertheless, Mahogany Blaze did finish third on his hurdling debut for the Naunton based handler; whose winner to runner rate with juveniles is a healthy 32.56%. His latest former bumper horse to try her hand in the sphere is Madam Malarkey. The daughter of a prolific pointer, she will be her sire's first representative in the division. Madam Malarkey is the niece of winning jumpers Shining Light and Brave King, good chaser Castle Warden appears at 3/1 on the damline, while Triumph third Al-'Alawi and Toirdealbhach came from the fourth dam before becoming sires.
*Started favourite but ran no kind of race at Warwick on debut
*43l last at Taunton on second outing
Miss Curiosity bf Seamus Mullins b3-0-1 (-) 87
Life Force (Zerpour){u}(0.33) 2/1 Los Amigos 2m5½f 0-140 Rated Chase, Fairyhouse 2015
First juv for Life Force - very unlikely type although full-brother Vale Of York has had winners in France
2/1 Tom Horn 2/1 Shoughall's Boy 3/1 Jamalade 4/1 Fairy King, State Case 4/3 Coole Avenue
ex-Bumper horses poor in juvs but improved on debut to finish second at Newbury in December - easy winner followed up at Cheltenham next time but form in behind not working out.
Seamus Mullins 12.07% WR, 3.64% FTO
Pretentieuse bf Deborah Faulkner j2-0-0 (-) 56 58
Great Pretender (Limnos){17-b}(0.45) 1/0 Limaranta 70.0 2nd Prix Bournosienne (G3,3yH), Auteul 2006
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/pretentieuse
(Patrice Lenogue) €3,000 Arqana Summer
Pretty good pedigree, poor form, cheap purchase.
0.5 Ri 57.0 1.3800m HcC 0.5 Emila Romagna 55.0 1.4yC Ploermel 2/1 Limarauth, Mango Bay 3/1 Rash Moment 4/1 Actinium
Pump It Up chf Richard Spencer f12-1-3 (49) 59 j4-0-1 (93) 83 98
Charming Thought (Pivotal){1-l}(2.08) 3/1 General Eliott* 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (100), Market Rasen 2011
***Preview from Doncaster where she finished second having very much got the run of the race
"Though rated just forty-nine on the flat, Pump It Up was at least able to win in that sphere, landing a twelve furlong heavy ground handicap at Windsor off 46 back in August. Another representative of Charming Thought, the closest winning jumper on the damline is handicapper General Elliott at 3/1, while 1989 Kennel Gate winner Arden shows up at 4/1. Unfancied on her hurdling debut in a fillies' maiden at Fakenham in late October, Pump It Up started prominently but lost her place towards the end of the first circuit. One paced in midfield during the second lap, she plugged on for a forty-two length fourth, jumping reasonably if slightly awkward in the process. Her latest appearance came in another fillies' maiden at Leicester six weeks ago where she started at 28/1. Leading at a reasonable clip, she jumped well apart from clipping the fourth. Joined by her rivals towards the end of the back, she was outpaced by the market leaders at the top of the straight, plugging on to finish a fourteen length fourth of seven. This probably marked a new career best for Pump It Up although the form has been done no favours by the first three who were each outclassed next time. An honest filly who can jump well, Pump It Up could be competitive off her mark of 86, although that would not be enough to give her a winning chance here."
*Subsequently flopped when attempting same tactics in better race at Lingfield last time.
Simply Red chf Oliver Greenalll b2-0-0 (-) 57 j2-0-0 (-) 74 90
Proconsul (Motivator){22-d}(0.76) 2/1 Teela 4th Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Sedgefield 2010
***Preview from Doncaster where she finished fifth, making little impression on Tiki Fire
Another to have started her career in junior bumpers, Simply Red was beaten thirty-four lengths at both Market Rasen in October, and Aintree in November. Her fourth dam produced a winning novice hurdler in Resist The Force, but closer relatives achieved very little over jumps and sire Proconsul has yet to have any winners of any description. Simply Red made her hurdling debut at Market Rasen early this month where she started at 100/1. Held up in the rear, making a few minor errors, she never remotely threatened to get involved although she did pass a few beaten horses in the straight to finish a twenty-three length fourth. The form looked quite modest beforehand and has been done few favours by those who have been out since.
*stable has been quite tepid recently but does have two winners and place from seven juveniles at Hereford
Tiki Fire bf Neil King f7-0-3 (64) 70 j4-0-1 (92) 90 96
Awtaad (Big Shuffle){1-h}(1.46) 3/2 Dictum 1st 2m3f Novices' Chase, Haydock 2007
***Preview from Doncaster listed race where she finished tailed off
Initially with Karl Burke, Tiki Fire placed twice as a two-year-old at Haydock and Newcastle and would largely hold her form on four outings this term without troubling the judge. Selling for 10,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale, she joined a Neil King yard with healthy winner to runner and improvement rates of 31.25% and 54.05% respectively. Sire Awtaad is another first crop sire, but while the Cape Cross line does get juveniles, Awtaad himself is not the tallest, was untried beyond a mile and his three runners to date have achieved little. Tiki Fire is quite tenuously related to Don Cossack (4/3) though the decent chaser Dictum is a slightly closer relative at 3/2. Making her hurdling debut in a fillies' contest at Fakenham, Tiki Fire was quite weak in the market. Racing in a first time hood, she never left the rear of the field and made a couple of serious blunders before finishing a tailed off last. With such a lamentable effort along with the yard's juveniles rarely firing first time, better could have been anticipated for her next outing which came at Warwick early last month. Starting at 100/1, Tiki Fire was once again waited with, hopping over the first and doing so again when landing atop the second. She was tight at the third but was better at the next and was in the process of making decent headway when briefly losing her footing on landing at the fifth. Though she picked up the bit soon enough, her leaving her hind legs in the sixth and stumbling badly cost her valuable ground and momentum. Tiki Fire did her best to get back within shouting distance but the race was gone by the time she entered the straight and after being slow away from two out, would merely plug on to finish fourth. Her effort was better than the bare result suggests and though easy in the market beforehand, she went into last month's Doncaster contest with feasible prospects. Racing in midfield, Tiki Fire was some way off the pace turning for home, but was still able to get first run on the reopposing Galah. Her round of jumping was not as clean, as she clipped the first, was untidy at the second, tight at the fourth and was not smoothly away from three out. Headed by Galah approaching the last, without having caught the runaway leader, she could only plug on behind the front pair, four and a half lengths clear of the remainder. Tiki Fire was not disgraced on this occasion and posted her best performance to date over hurdles. However, there is no reason why she might reverse placing with Galah and the yard's horses have not been running to form.*
*(yard has since been in better form)
*Yard one from two at Hereford (both prior to 2010)
Strong prospects
1. Fiamette
Reasonable prospects
2. Tiki Fire
3. Pump It Up
4. Hang Up
Feasible prospects
5. Simply Red
Moderate prospects
6. Miss Curiosity
7. Madam Malarkey
Negligible prospects
8. Pretentieuse
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,230
Fiamette doesn't run.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,230
Still managed first and second in the next best prospects. Super stuff again, BH 
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Super Stuff ???? Please explain what's super about it you patronising POS
3 singles win you 25 quid for 3 hundred back 6 forcasts you have backed a 1/3 winner dutch the 3 and you are on at 1/4..
Lotta work to tell us what the first 3 favs are in a 6 horse race that is what it is.
Sorry BH I only hope it's a hobby for you because your results have been dreadful lately from a punting point of view.
3 singles win you 25 quid for 3 hundred back 6 forcasts you have backed a 1/3 winner dutch the 3 and you are on at 1/4..
Lotta work to tell us what the first 3 favs are in a 6 horse race that is what it is.
Sorry BH I only hope it's a hobby for you because your results have been dreadful lately from a punting point of view.
Can we see why people want to leave the forum with posts like that. **** me sideways.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
This thread is not meant to provide tips. Its intent is to provide people with deeply-researched background on little-known juvenile prospects, in order that - when people make their own judgement on what to bet - they can do it from a much-better informed position. This thread is a labour of love, and a million times more informative than your 'I used to have a drink with Ron Barry - those were the days/JP has laid this one out' horse-sh*it.
Stop acting like a twat, and let BH press-on with his research unhindered by your idiotic comments.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
What's wrong is the truth too much for you guys to handle?
Go back 1 named the odds on fav and the second fav
Go back 2.....named the 1st 2nd and 3rd fav
Go back 3 named the first and 3rd fav in a 6 horse race both beaten
I can pick up the racing post and get that info in 10 seconds I don't need someone taking up hours of his time writing thousand of words that takes half an hour to read to get the same info
Sorry I don't mean to offend the guy but to tell him he's wonderful is as patronisoing as it gets
So grow the fook up and smell the roses.
I'm joining Reet Hard to get away from that ******* moron Desert Orchid you all love so much..
The guy puts up so much shte day after day it does my head in when people actaully defend him......
I'd bet 1000 pounds to a fiver he doesn't back half the horses he claims he does......and it's all in his mond.
Enjoy cheltenham all but I can't that to be in the same forum as people that sook up the arse of a creep.
Over and out
Go back 1 named the odds on fav and the second fav
Go back 2.....named the 1st 2nd and 3rd fav
Go back 3 named the first and 3rd fav in a 6 horse race both beaten
I can pick up the racing post and get that info in 10 seconds I don't need someone taking up hours of his time writing thousand of words that takes half an hour to read to get the same info
Sorry I don't mean to offend the guy but to tell him he's wonderful is as patronisoing as it gets
So grow the fook up and smell the roses.
I'm joining Reet Hard to get away from that ******* moron Desert Orchid you all love so much..
The guy puts up so much shte day after day it does my head in when people actaully defend him......
I'd bet 1000 pounds to a fiver he doesn't back half the horses he claims he does......and it's all in his mond.
Enjoy cheltenham all but I can't that to be in the same forum as people that sook up the arse of a creep.
Over and out
Oh dear! 
Its a shame Reet feels the way he does.
My interactions with both Reet and Desert Orchid have been respectful over the years. As they have with you Tanlic.
I can't take sides but I just wish everyone could get along with each other enough so as to not let the debate degenerate into insults which is clearly what you have unnecessarily thrown at Bachellors Halls there .
Lets not tear ourselves apart before Cheltenham...
Its a shame Reet feels the way he does.
My interactions with both Reet and Desert Orchid have been respectful over the years. As they have with you Tanlic.
I can't take sides but I just wish everyone could get along with each other enough so as to not let the debate degenerate into insults which is clearly what you have unnecessarily thrown at Bachellors Halls there .
Lets not tear ourselves apart before Cheltenham...
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The DO comments are nothing to do with me, thats your own opinion.
But your literally slandering a fella that puts in a lot of work and shares with the forum, that can only be a good thing. Go on about the prices of the horses, when not that long ago you literally had a thread putting up odds on shots.
Unless its Nicky Henderson propaganda or opinions you agree with you have 0 interest in even debate. You look and sound like a total prick.
But your literally slandering a fella that puts in a lot of work and shares with the forum, that can only be a good thing. Go on about the prices of the horses, when not that long ago you literally had a thread putting up odds on shots.
Unless its Nicky Henderson propaganda or opinions you agree with you have 0 interest in even debate. You look and sound like a total prick.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Much better informative position your fukcing ass....There are dozens of professional people out there doing that every day.
Go to betfair and ever race has a comments section written by Timeform you can read through in minutes.
Anyway who gave you the god to talk for BH and why he posts and puts horses up..Of course they are tips you moron
What is a tip if it is not ones idea of what will win a race?
If it is not his idea of what he thinks will win why does he put them in order of preference?
Just about everytime I post something against your pal DO out you come with your peronal attacks..You're like a broken reckord
Bets you give him a kiss and get a room.............Tanlic has left the building
Beef or Salmon
Rookie
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2013
- Messages
- 1,017
Thank fcuk for that! This thread is now even more epic than it already was!
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
1. I was defending BH and his thread. I was not defending DO.
2. They aren't tips, which you would know if you paid attention....but you never do, because you always know best.
3. DO is from darkest, backwards Lanarkshire, and I am from cosmopolitan Sunny Leith. We are therefore entirely incompatible.
4. Good. Fu*ck off out of it.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I wasn't slandering him at all DJ all I said is his results didn't justify the hard work he put in. My beef is with DO patronising the guy saying howwonderful it was he naked the first 3 favourites in a small field no matter how you backed them the odds were horrendous..as I said if it's ahobby fine but the actall reslts of his selection don't deserve prise even if his hard work does,
This Nicky Henderson crap is a joke and you been listening to Grassy for too long who's nose has been oyut of joint ever since I proved him wrong about Binocular and Don't Push It. Whens the last time I put up a Nickey Henderson horse apart from Shishkin that half the forum didn't?
Opposed him in the Betfair oppsed him in the big race the other day even put Champ up as ahorse not to be trusted.........I did put up a small double that went belly up the other day but only because of the name relating to Thailand.
I give Nicky credit where credit is due but in no way am I biased.if I think a horse is a pig then I will say so no matter who trains it.
Next ime you pull someone up fact check before you do mate.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
1. I was defending BH and his thread. I was not defending DO.
2. They aren't tips, which you would know if you paid attention....but you never do, because you always know best.
3. DO is from darkest, backwards Lanarkshire, and I am from cosmopolitan Sunny Leith. We are therefore entirely incompatible.
4. Good. Fu*ck off out of it.
I was slagging DO for being a patronisoing POS..
Of course they are tips what else are selections if not your top for a race..You really are just opening your mouth and letting your belly rumble there.
Anything close to Larkhall is where all the hillbillys live.
Leith? Can't knock the place I work for Loudon's years ago and used to visit Leith often.
I heard the place has even improved since those days and thought you must have moved away:lol:
Take care we will never fall out..............FU 2
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
At least one of you bozo's start a come back REET thread buys been here for over 10 years and if that doesn't worry you that he's left then I have absolutely no respect for you.
Bye
Bye
barjon
Conditional
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,639
Yes, loads of people are analysing races every day, but BH’s are amongst the best I’ve ever seen. As grassy says, BH does not intend it to be a tipster sheet, but if you had used them as such you’d have been handsomely rewarded.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I have to agree, GH, there is more divides us than unites us but one of my better decisions was to take you off 'ignore' some time back :lol:
Bachelors Hall
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No idea what is going on and am too tired to make sense of it all right now, but I am sure it will make for riveting breakfast reading in a few hours!
I was going to start of by lamenting how badly I goofed with yesterday's preview written in a semi-conscious state (which I think I did warn others about). My main gripe being that I downplayed Pump It Ups prospects by suggesting she had been flattered by her Doncaster performance where she got an easy lead... Even though I suggested she would get an easy lead again. Must have spent a good few minutes ruminating on that one after seeing the result. Luckily, someone has appears to have addressed this clanger ahead of me but I will know for sure when I check on it in the morning...
In the meantime, a more complete essay for a decent enough looking race at Fontwell. In case anybody was wondering, that thing I wrote in the very first paragraph, in the very first post of this thread, in bold writing, has not changed. Nor will it ever change. If you read this preview and decide to bet, good luck but it is entirely off your own accord. I will not bet on this race... I enjoy writing these essays for their own sake... I appreciate it when others take the time to read my content. I like it when I am able to engage with others. That is the fullest extent of involvement with this thing.
FOR NOW, I am ignoring anything written above as I am genuinely going to sleep after this is posted. If there is any constructive criticism then I am happy to address it when I have the time and energy. If there is any personal attack then you have nothing but love in return because life is too short to be carrying any kind of bitterness. If it is just standard issue internet drama then I might indulge myself if I am short on other means of amusing myself.
Thank you and sweet dreams everybody
The average winner of Fontwell's February juvenile hurdle has a seasonal RPR of 124.5 median, 129.7 mean, making it a good ten pounds stronger than the average contest held at the venue. While still a class 4 affair, the race has still made ripples on the festival season with Blazing Bailey and Mobaasher (winners in 2006 and 2007) placing in the Triumph, and Ski Sunday and Christopher Wood (third in 2009 and first in 2019) placing in the Anniversary Hurdle. Mr Thriller (first in 2009), Monsieur Lecoq (third in 2018) and Pur de Sivola (third in 2007) are other graduates who would go on to reach respectable heights. This year's renewal is unlikely to affect the Triumph market but it is not a race without merit. The five strong field is headed by three previous winners; two of whom made promising starts to their hurdling careers before disappointing at Cheltenham last time, and the third making good on his potential when leaving previous form behind with an emphatic win at Hereford. A decently priced flat recruit and a well bred jumps type, each with a bit to find on hurdling evidence, complete the line-up. The circuit at Fontwell is a sharp, flat, left-handed one although due to the distance of juvenile contests and the propensity for the ground to get testing, the winning DIs of 1.39 mean, 1.06 median are within the lowest third of British and Irish venues. These figures drop further to 1.06 and 0.91 for this particular contest. With the going described as heavy, soft in places, and two of the previous winning hurdlers doing so having made all, there will be few hiding places for non stayers despite the small field size.
Triumph Odds
Interne de Sivola 66/1 (75)
Silver Shade 100/1 (610)
Fred Winter
Interne de Sivola 33/1
Silver Shade 33/1
Hayedo 40/1
Hayedo bg Gary Moore f4-0-3 (-) 84 j3-1-1 (115) 114 118
Sea The Moon (Sholokhov){7-c}(0.65) 3/1 Hill Fairy 1st Lombardstown Mares Novice Chase (L), Cork 2008
https://www.pronoturf.es/ficha-caballo/c58dbcc04143b4253160b8d619314a2e
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hayedo
Starting his career in Spain before racing in France, the German bred Hayedo is set to have his fourth outing over British hurdles. After fetching €58,000 as a yearling, Hayedo twice ran for Patrik Olave at La Zarzuela, Madrid late in the season, placing second on each occasion. Hayedo's third flat outing is much more easily quantified. Having his first run for Edouard Monfort, Hayedo reappeared in a quite valuable maiden contest at Longchamp over 2000m in May. Keen in the early stages, he pulled himself into the lead and settled better as a result. He would maintain his advantage to the distance and though outpaced by the winner, would keep on gamely to hold second. The form is of a reasonable standard with the length and a quarter winner rated 96.8, and the third rated 88. Hayedo failed to match this form on his sole subsequent outing which came over 2200m at Lyon the following month. Though running a similar kind of race, he did not settle quite so well and while he fought on bravely after being headed turning for home, he found himself swamped in the final strides, finishing just under two lengths behind in fourth. There was encouragement for Hayedo's new vocation in the pedigree. Sea The Moon (Allmankind, Tritonic) has a winner runner rate of 28.57% and an improvement rate of 50%. Sholokhov is untried as a damsire but 30% of his own progeny win in the sphere and the third dam is the matriarch of winning jumpers Hill Fairy (3/1), Hey Little Boy (3/1) and North Hill (3/2). His first run over hurdles came at Fontwell in November where he was backed into 9/1 having opened twice that price in the ring. Initially held up, he moved into midfield during the first circuit and was tracking the leaders going out second time round. However, he began to lose touch nearing the end of the back and was ultimately beaten thirty-three lengths. His caused was not helped by some novicey jumping which grew more dramatic as the race progressed, closing his round by hopping through his hurdles. Hayedo reappeared at Sandown early last month and was once again subject to outside support, trimmed from 16/1 to 10/1 at the off. He was sent into the lead and though he was still prone to hopping through the top of his flights at times, it was a much better round overall. He ceded the lead approaching the penultimate flight and had little left after the last, losing a remote second close to the line. Four weeks later, Hayedo returned in a maiden hurdle at Hereford; drifting from 4/1 to 8/1 during the day, before returning to 9/2 in the ring. Taking a keen hold, Hayedo went straight to the front while demonstrating good improvement in his jumping. He was neat when ridden into the first, but though rather tight at the second, was fluent from thereon. His rivals were all in trouble at the cross section and by the time he entered the straight, he was half-a-dozen lengths clear. Hayedo was steady before hopping through the top of the last, but the runner-up made an even worse blunder which allowed him to storm to a thirteen length success. His task was made easier by the favourite pulling too hard, but the form is close to his flat best and there may be even further to come. He was withdrawn from an intended engagement at Ascot in a contest where the yard had previously sent Goshen, Beat The Judge and Casa Loupi. Nevertheless, Gary Moore also has a strong record with juveniles at Fontwell with a strike rate of 28.26% including two winners and six placings from nine runners in this particular contest. Though there is a concern over his racing keenly, said trait is less pronounced than with his main rivals. If all form is taken at face value, he does have several pounds to find on Interne de Sivola. Nevertheless, he is improving with each run and there is the potential for more from the enhanced stamina test. Hayedo has the least to answer for overall and based on his Ascot entry, is held in decent regard for a trainer that enjoys plenty of success at the track.
Interne De Sivola bg Nick Williams j3-1-1 (130) 121 125
Noroit (Cadoudal){u}(0.33) 0.5 Ut De Sivola 2nd Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2012
Regular readers will be aware that previously unraced horses have a modest record in the sphere, with such horses having a winner to runner rate of 7.27%. Said readers will also be aware that this maxim does not necessarily apply to those hailing from George Nympton as their winner to runner rate is 30.77%. Interne de Sivola is one of this season's contributors to this healthy figure and like many of his ilk, has a pedigree which justifies the Williams' anomaly. By Noroit, who has three winners from six with British and Irish trained juveniles, Interne de Sivola is a half-brother to five winning jumpers in Ut de Sivola, Sivola de Sivola, Artifice Sivola, Task Force Sivola and Radsoc de Sivola; all of whom showed useful form as youngsters. Their dam, Kerrana, won twice as a four-year-old at Auteuil, is the auntie of another winner in Dark Caviar, and the niece of New Will and Quick Will. The top-class pair of My Will and Unioniste appear at 3/2 on Intene de Sivola's damline. His racecorse debut came at Warwick in early November where he drifted during the day's exchanges before being clipped into 11/1 in the ring. Initially making the running, Interne de Sivola was content to track a couple of more eager leaders on passing the stands where he would remain to the end of the back straight where he found himself outpaced. In the deep end of the contest, he was able to keep on with the front pair without threatening either, and finished fourteen lengths clear of the remainder. His first public round of jumping was not flawless as he was slightly steady at the third, close to the sixth where he skewed quite badly before hopping over the last. Nevertheless, it was a respectable round overall and the form is decent with the winner, in This World, leading the British contingent on the Triumph market before being ruled out for the season, and the runner-up Graystone scoring twice in good company. A month later at Cheltenham, Interne de Sivola made good on this promise by readily landing the spoils by five and a half lengths. The form was boosted when the second and third, Yorksea and Galah, won next time and save for being awkward at the last, Interne de Sivola put up a decent round of jumping. Cosy as his victory was, there is a possiblility that he was somewhat flattered as he was able to set a steady tempo and get first run on a field which was littered with messy in-running stories. This performance was enough to see him start the 5/1 third favourite in the Grade Two Finesse hurdle back in the Cotswolds three weeks ago. However, his tendency to take a firm grip was exacerbated by a constant challenge for the lead and his jumping suffered as a result; as he reached and hopped over the second and fifth, hit the top of the sixth and flattened the penultimate flight which cost him vital momentum and sealed his retreat. This drop in class will be appreciated and if his win at Cheltenham is taken at face value, he sets a clear standard on form. However, he may be unsettled by a contested lead and his Cheltenham success is a stone superior to his other outings.
Silver Shade grg Milton Harris f9-2-2 (73) 80 j2-1-0 (-) 103 111
Kendargent (Alzao){4-b}(0.57) 2/1 Teenage Idol 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (124), Ayr 2012
Milton Harris has enjoyed an outstanding season to date in the division and much of this is down to some astute buying at Tattersalls at the July and Autumn sales. Aliomaana, Knight Salute, Genuflex and Galah have all won this term having gone around the Newmarket ring, with no price tag exceeding 21,000 guineas. Silver Shade cost 18,000 at the Autumn Sale, leaving Mark Johnston with two wins and a mark of 73 to his name. Finishing down the field during three outings at two, Silver Shade returned from his winter break sans testicles. The shedding of two stones reaped immediate results as he finished second over a mile and a half in a Lingfield handicap off 58 before landing a double at Newcastle and Southwell in March and April. Both contests were held over the same trip with neither being especially competitive. Silver Shade had only three rivals to defeat at Newcastle and while he was a most convincing winner, the subsequent form has not worked out. At Southwell, had only the one opponent who he beat in a canter to justify 30/100 favouritism. There is more substance to his Sandown second next time out where he raced over a heavy fourteen furlongs off 73. Although he was no match for Zinc White, he still had enough to fend off the challenge of Pied Piper for second; the latter, who was giving away thirteen pounds, is now a leading candidate for the Triumph. Lacking the pace for a steadily run class 2 on good to firm at Doncaster, Silver Shade was last seen pulling up immediately after the start of a Musselburgh handicap in late June. In the event, he had actually fractured his pelvis, although while unable to run again on the flat for his initial connections, was sound enough to get past the Tattersalls vets with full disclosure. Since 2004/05, thoroughbred family 4-b has had no winning juveniles from six, although this does not appear to be an endemic issue as Three Kingdoms was a useful sort who won three times at four while König Ulrich, a distant relative at 6/4, won the Prix Maurice Gillois (the Arkle chase for four-year-olds) in 1989. Closer on the damline are the good German hurdler Königstreuer at 4/1 while uncle Teenage Idol was a fairly useful winner. Kendargent's record in France is a solid nine winners from forty-eight, and his record across the channel became a respectable three from twelve when Silver Shade made a winning hurdling bow at Kempton in the middle of last month. In what was a weak looking contest for the venue, he was allowed to open at 11/2 in the ring before being trimmed to a slightly more appropriate 9/2. Opting to sit towards the rear in a slowly run affair, Silver Shade took a bit of a grip for much of the journey but was travelling with purpose on turning into the straight. Keeping the front pair firmly in his sights as the race developed, he jumped into the last with a share of the lead and though rather awkward at the last, quickened well enough on the run-in to score by a comfortable length and a quarter. Along with his being awkward at the last, he was also steady and close at the first and made a meal of getting over three out, but his good jumps were neat and economical. Moreover, while it was not the strongest looking contest on paper, the second and third did appear to maintain their form next time out. Silver Shade was thrown into much deeper waters when taking in the Finesse Hurdle a fortnight later. His task was illustrated by his 25/1 starting price and he performed accordingly. Held up towards the rear, he made a short-lived effort at the bottom of the hill but was unable to make any serious inroads and finished a thirty-five length fifth. His cause was not helped by a novicey round of jumping where he was particularly untidy at the first, fifth and seventh. Silver Shade returns to calmer waters and may also appreciate the return to a flat circuit. However, there is still a poor outing to overcome as well as a few pounds to find on both flat and hurdles form.
Harlem Soul chg Harriet Brown f8-1-2 (79) 88 j1-0-0 (-) 89 99
Frankel (Giant's Causeway){9-f}(0.68) 3/1 Percussionist 1st Grand National (G1), Far Hills 2010
Mark Johnston is one of the most prolific suppliers of juvenile hurdlers and while only a third will maintain or improve for the switch in codes, former residents of Kingsley Park do have a solid winner to runner rate of 23.56%; a figure which increases to 32.79% for those rated 75 and above on the level. Harlem Soul is one such animal, amassing a win, two places and a final rating of 79 from eight outings. His win came at the fourth time of asking in a four-runner, twelve-furlong Ripon contest in the middle of June, in his handicap debut off an 80 perch. Tracking the leader off an ordinary gallop, he took up the running three furlongs from home and kept on well for comfortable two and three quarter length victory over Nicky Henderson's useful juvenile Impulsive One. However, he was unable to build on this performance on four subsequent outings and though he was not disgraced in quite valuable contests at Haydock and Ascot, he did not have many excuses either beyond a questionable disposition. Sold for 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale, he joined Harriet Brown and was gelded during the Autumn. Harlem Soul's pedigree is strong for a flat horse; coming from a Frankel x Giant's Causeway cross, he is a half-brother to Ispolini (Group 3 winner in Germany and Dubai), and his granddam Playful Act, a half-sister to Nathaniel, won the Fillies' Mile. Frankel's record with juvenile hurdlers has been only fair at best to this point and the same can be said for Giant's Causeway as a damsire. Notwithstanding, Playful Act is also a full-sister to the classy Percussionist, who was respectable over hurdles, and the auntie of Supasundae, Distingo, Whispering Gallery and Great Bear. Harlem Soul's hurdling debut came in a Wincanton novice a fortnight where he was an 11/1 shot. His temperament was not alleviated by his castration however as he took a keen hold and gave his flights plenty of air. Initially racing prominently, he tracked the leader for much of the contest, but lost ground on the turn for home; making no further impression and finishing tired. Harlem Soul can improve for the experience, but said improvement would have to be highly dramatic if he is to mature sufficiently to make a strong challenge in this company.
My Ticketyboo bg Chris Gordon j2-0-0 (-) 73 78
Shirocco (Subtle Power){1-b}(0.57) 2/1 Sher Beau 3rd John Durkan Punchestown Chase (G1), Punchestown 2006
As alluded to in Interne de Sivola's profile, unraced debutants in juvenile hurdles have a modest record and when isolating Irish breds, their first time strike rate is just 1.71%. If anything can be said for My Ticketyboo's breeding, it is that he has a proper national hunt pedigree. Shirocco has produced the likes of Annie Power and Minella Rocco, damsire Subtle Power was responsible for Lie Forrit and Highland Hunter, the dam is a half-sister to four good winners in Sher Beau, Last Goodbye, Freds Benefit and Glen Beg while coming from the same line as Givus A Buck. However, the aforementioned all started in bumpers and points while Shirocco's winner to runner rate with juveniles is a moderate 12.50%. Chris Gordon does have a winner to runner rate of 23.33%, but his first time strike rate was just 3.57% prior to My Ticketyboo making his hurdling debut at Hereford in early January. Starting the day at 20/1, but starting the race at 50/1, he was in the rear from the outset. After jumping slowly over the first, and big and skewed over the next two, he became so detached that no more of his jumps were picked up by the cameras. Stepping up to nineteen furlongs for a Fontwell maiden at the end of last month, he raced in mid-division for the first circuit and though dropping to the rear for the second lap, was able to pass a couple of beaten rivals on the run to the last before finishing a twenty-nine length fourth of seven finishers. Though awkward over the first and last pair of jumps, he hurdled more fluently for his Hereford experience. It is not unfeasible that My Ticketyboo does have a future as a national hunt racehorse, but he would be highly unlikely to make any real impact in this contest.
Strong prospects
1. Hayedo
Reasonable prospects
2. Interne de Sivola
3. Silver Shade
Feasible prospects
.
Moderate prospects
4. Harlem Soul
Negligible prospects
5. My Ticketyboo
I was going to start of by lamenting how badly I goofed with yesterday's preview written in a semi-conscious state (which I think I did warn others about). My main gripe being that I downplayed Pump It Ups prospects by suggesting she had been flattered by her Doncaster performance where she got an easy lead... Even though I suggested she would get an easy lead again. Must have spent a good few minutes ruminating on that one after seeing the result. Luckily, someone has appears to have addressed this clanger ahead of me but I will know for sure when I check on it in the morning...
In the meantime, a more complete essay for a decent enough looking race at Fontwell. In case anybody was wondering, that thing I wrote in the very first paragraph, in the very first post of this thread, in bold writing, has not changed. Nor will it ever change. If you read this preview and decide to bet, good luck but it is entirely off your own accord. I will not bet on this race... I enjoy writing these essays for their own sake... I appreciate it when others take the time to read my content. I like it when I am able to engage with others. That is the fullest extent of involvement with this thing.
FOR NOW, I am ignoring anything written above as I am genuinely going to sleep after this is posted. If there is any constructive criticism then I am happy to address it when I have the time and energy. If there is any personal attack then you have nothing but love in return because life is too short to be carrying any kind of bitterness. If it is just standard issue internet drama then I might indulge myself if I am short on other means of amusing myself.
Thank you and sweet dreams everybody
The average winner of Fontwell's February juvenile hurdle has a seasonal RPR of 124.5 median, 129.7 mean, making it a good ten pounds stronger than the average contest held at the venue. While still a class 4 affair, the race has still made ripples on the festival season with Blazing Bailey and Mobaasher (winners in 2006 and 2007) placing in the Triumph, and Ski Sunday and Christopher Wood (third in 2009 and first in 2019) placing in the Anniversary Hurdle. Mr Thriller (first in 2009), Monsieur Lecoq (third in 2018) and Pur de Sivola (third in 2007) are other graduates who would go on to reach respectable heights. This year's renewal is unlikely to affect the Triumph market but it is not a race without merit. The five strong field is headed by three previous winners; two of whom made promising starts to their hurdling careers before disappointing at Cheltenham last time, and the third making good on his potential when leaving previous form behind with an emphatic win at Hereford. A decently priced flat recruit and a well bred jumps type, each with a bit to find on hurdling evidence, complete the line-up. The circuit at Fontwell is a sharp, flat, left-handed one although due to the distance of juvenile contests and the propensity for the ground to get testing, the winning DIs of 1.39 mean, 1.06 median are within the lowest third of British and Irish venues. These figures drop further to 1.06 and 0.91 for this particular contest. With the going described as heavy, soft in places, and two of the previous winning hurdlers doing so having made all, there will be few hiding places for non stayers despite the small field size.
Triumph Odds
Interne de Sivola 66/1 (75)
Silver Shade 100/1 (610)
Fred Winter
Interne de Sivola 33/1
Silver Shade 33/1
Hayedo 40/1
Hayedo bg Gary Moore f4-0-3 (-) 84 j3-1-1 (115) 114 118
Sea The Moon (Sholokhov){7-c}(0.65) 3/1 Hill Fairy 1st Lombardstown Mares Novice Chase (L), Cork 2008
https://www.pronoturf.es/ficha-caballo/c58dbcc04143b4253160b8d619314a2e
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hayedo
Starting his career in Spain before racing in France, the German bred Hayedo is set to have his fourth outing over British hurdles. After fetching €58,000 as a yearling, Hayedo twice ran for Patrik Olave at La Zarzuela, Madrid late in the season, placing second on each occasion. Hayedo's third flat outing is much more easily quantified. Having his first run for Edouard Monfort, Hayedo reappeared in a quite valuable maiden contest at Longchamp over 2000m in May. Keen in the early stages, he pulled himself into the lead and settled better as a result. He would maintain his advantage to the distance and though outpaced by the winner, would keep on gamely to hold second. The form is of a reasonable standard with the length and a quarter winner rated 96.8, and the third rated 88. Hayedo failed to match this form on his sole subsequent outing which came over 2200m at Lyon the following month. Though running a similar kind of race, he did not settle quite so well and while he fought on bravely after being headed turning for home, he found himself swamped in the final strides, finishing just under two lengths behind in fourth. There was encouragement for Hayedo's new vocation in the pedigree. Sea The Moon (Allmankind, Tritonic) has a winner runner rate of 28.57% and an improvement rate of 50%. Sholokhov is untried as a damsire but 30% of his own progeny win in the sphere and the third dam is the matriarch of winning jumpers Hill Fairy (3/1), Hey Little Boy (3/1) and North Hill (3/2). His first run over hurdles came at Fontwell in November where he was backed into 9/1 having opened twice that price in the ring. Initially held up, he moved into midfield during the first circuit and was tracking the leaders going out second time round. However, he began to lose touch nearing the end of the back and was ultimately beaten thirty-three lengths. His caused was not helped by some novicey jumping which grew more dramatic as the race progressed, closing his round by hopping through his hurdles. Hayedo reappeared at Sandown early last month and was once again subject to outside support, trimmed from 16/1 to 10/1 at the off. He was sent into the lead and though he was still prone to hopping through the top of his flights at times, it was a much better round overall. He ceded the lead approaching the penultimate flight and had little left after the last, losing a remote second close to the line. Four weeks later, Hayedo returned in a maiden hurdle at Hereford; drifting from 4/1 to 8/1 during the day, before returning to 9/2 in the ring. Taking a keen hold, Hayedo went straight to the front while demonstrating good improvement in his jumping. He was neat when ridden into the first, but though rather tight at the second, was fluent from thereon. His rivals were all in trouble at the cross section and by the time he entered the straight, he was half-a-dozen lengths clear. Hayedo was steady before hopping through the top of the last, but the runner-up made an even worse blunder which allowed him to storm to a thirteen length success. His task was made easier by the favourite pulling too hard, but the form is close to his flat best and there may be even further to come. He was withdrawn from an intended engagement at Ascot in a contest where the yard had previously sent Goshen, Beat The Judge and Casa Loupi. Nevertheless, Gary Moore also has a strong record with juveniles at Fontwell with a strike rate of 28.26% including two winners and six placings from nine runners in this particular contest. Though there is a concern over his racing keenly, said trait is less pronounced than with his main rivals. If all form is taken at face value, he does have several pounds to find on Interne de Sivola. Nevertheless, he is improving with each run and there is the potential for more from the enhanced stamina test. Hayedo has the least to answer for overall and based on his Ascot entry, is held in decent regard for a trainer that enjoys plenty of success at the track.
Interne De Sivola bg Nick Williams j3-1-1 (130) 121 125
Noroit (Cadoudal){u}(0.33) 0.5 Ut De Sivola 2nd Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2012
Regular readers will be aware that previously unraced horses have a modest record in the sphere, with such horses having a winner to runner rate of 7.27%. Said readers will also be aware that this maxim does not necessarily apply to those hailing from George Nympton as their winner to runner rate is 30.77%. Interne de Sivola is one of this season's contributors to this healthy figure and like many of his ilk, has a pedigree which justifies the Williams' anomaly. By Noroit, who has three winners from six with British and Irish trained juveniles, Interne de Sivola is a half-brother to five winning jumpers in Ut de Sivola, Sivola de Sivola, Artifice Sivola, Task Force Sivola and Radsoc de Sivola; all of whom showed useful form as youngsters. Their dam, Kerrana, won twice as a four-year-old at Auteuil, is the auntie of another winner in Dark Caviar, and the niece of New Will and Quick Will. The top-class pair of My Will and Unioniste appear at 3/2 on Intene de Sivola's damline. His racecorse debut came at Warwick in early November where he drifted during the day's exchanges before being clipped into 11/1 in the ring. Initially making the running, Interne de Sivola was content to track a couple of more eager leaders on passing the stands where he would remain to the end of the back straight where he found himself outpaced. In the deep end of the contest, he was able to keep on with the front pair without threatening either, and finished fourteen lengths clear of the remainder. His first public round of jumping was not flawless as he was slightly steady at the third, close to the sixth where he skewed quite badly before hopping over the last. Nevertheless, it was a respectable round overall and the form is decent with the winner, in This World, leading the British contingent on the Triumph market before being ruled out for the season, and the runner-up Graystone scoring twice in good company. A month later at Cheltenham, Interne de Sivola made good on this promise by readily landing the spoils by five and a half lengths. The form was boosted when the second and third, Yorksea and Galah, won next time and save for being awkward at the last, Interne de Sivola put up a decent round of jumping. Cosy as his victory was, there is a possiblility that he was somewhat flattered as he was able to set a steady tempo and get first run on a field which was littered with messy in-running stories. This performance was enough to see him start the 5/1 third favourite in the Grade Two Finesse hurdle back in the Cotswolds three weeks ago. However, his tendency to take a firm grip was exacerbated by a constant challenge for the lead and his jumping suffered as a result; as he reached and hopped over the second and fifth, hit the top of the sixth and flattened the penultimate flight which cost him vital momentum and sealed his retreat. This drop in class will be appreciated and if his win at Cheltenham is taken at face value, he sets a clear standard on form. However, he may be unsettled by a contested lead and his Cheltenham success is a stone superior to his other outings.
Silver Shade grg Milton Harris f9-2-2 (73) 80 j2-1-0 (-) 103 111
Kendargent (Alzao){4-b}(0.57) 2/1 Teenage Idol 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (124), Ayr 2012
Milton Harris has enjoyed an outstanding season to date in the division and much of this is down to some astute buying at Tattersalls at the July and Autumn sales. Aliomaana, Knight Salute, Genuflex and Galah have all won this term having gone around the Newmarket ring, with no price tag exceeding 21,000 guineas. Silver Shade cost 18,000 at the Autumn Sale, leaving Mark Johnston with two wins and a mark of 73 to his name. Finishing down the field during three outings at two, Silver Shade returned from his winter break sans testicles. The shedding of two stones reaped immediate results as he finished second over a mile and a half in a Lingfield handicap off 58 before landing a double at Newcastle and Southwell in March and April. Both contests were held over the same trip with neither being especially competitive. Silver Shade had only three rivals to defeat at Newcastle and while he was a most convincing winner, the subsequent form has not worked out. At Southwell, had only the one opponent who he beat in a canter to justify 30/100 favouritism. There is more substance to his Sandown second next time out where he raced over a heavy fourteen furlongs off 73. Although he was no match for Zinc White, he still had enough to fend off the challenge of Pied Piper for second; the latter, who was giving away thirteen pounds, is now a leading candidate for the Triumph. Lacking the pace for a steadily run class 2 on good to firm at Doncaster, Silver Shade was last seen pulling up immediately after the start of a Musselburgh handicap in late June. In the event, he had actually fractured his pelvis, although while unable to run again on the flat for his initial connections, was sound enough to get past the Tattersalls vets with full disclosure. Since 2004/05, thoroughbred family 4-b has had no winning juveniles from six, although this does not appear to be an endemic issue as Three Kingdoms was a useful sort who won three times at four while König Ulrich, a distant relative at 6/4, won the Prix Maurice Gillois (the Arkle chase for four-year-olds) in 1989. Closer on the damline are the good German hurdler Königstreuer at 4/1 while uncle Teenage Idol was a fairly useful winner. Kendargent's record in France is a solid nine winners from forty-eight, and his record across the channel became a respectable three from twelve when Silver Shade made a winning hurdling bow at Kempton in the middle of last month. In what was a weak looking contest for the venue, he was allowed to open at 11/2 in the ring before being trimmed to a slightly more appropriate 9/2. Opting to sit towards the rear in a slowly run affair, Silver Shade took a bit of a grip for much of the journey but was travelling with purpose on turning into the straight. Keeping the front pair firmly in his sights as the race developed, he jumped into the last with a share of the lead and though rather awkward at the last, quickened well enough on the run-in to score by a comfortable length and a quarter. Along with his being awkward at the last, he was also steady and close at the first and made a meal of getting over three out, but his good jumps were neat and economical. Moreover, while it was not the strongest looking contest on paper, the second and third did appear to maintain their form next time out. Silver Shade was thrown into much deeper waters when taking in the Finesse Hurdle a fortnight later. His task was illustrated by his 25/1 starting price and he performed accordingly. Held up towards the rear, he made a short-lived effort at the bottom of the hill but was unable to make any serious inroads and finished a thirty-five length fifth. His cause was not helped by a novicey round of jumping where he was particularly untidy at the first, fifth and seventh. Silver Shade returns to calmer waters and may also appreciate the return to a flat circuit. However, there is still a poor outing to overcome as well as a few pounds to find on both flat and hurdles form.
Harlem Soul chg Harriet Brown f8-1-2 (79) 88 j1-0-0 (-) 89 99
Frankel (Giant's Causeway){9-f}(0.68) 3/1 Percussionist 1st Grand National (G1), Far Hills 2010
Mark Johnston is one of the most prolific suppliers of juvenile hurdlers and while only a third will maintain or improve for the switch in codes, former residents of Kingsley Park do have a solid winner to runner rate of 23.56%; a figure which increases to 32.79% for those rated 75 and above on the level. Harlem Soul is one such animal, amassing a win, two places and a final rating of 79 from eight outings. His win came at the fourth time of asking in a four-runner, twelve-furlong Ripon contest in the middle of June, in his handicap debut off an 80 perch. Tracking the leader off an ordinary gallop, he took up the running three furlongs from home and kept on well for comfortable two and three quarter length victory over Nicky Henderson's useful juvenile Impulsive One. However, he was unable to build on this performance on four subsequent outings and though he was not disgraced in quite valuable contests at Haydock and Ascot, he did not have many excuses either beyond a questionable disposition. Sold for 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale, he joined Harriet Brown and was gelded during the Autumn. Harlem Soul's pedigree is strong for a flat horse; coming from a Frankel x Giant's Causeway cross, he is a half-brother to Ispolini (Group 3 winner in Germany and Dubai), and his granddam Playful Act, a half-sister to Nathaniel, won the Fillies' Mile. Frankel's record with juvenile hurdlers has been only fair at best to this point and the same can be said for Giant's Causeway as a damsire. Notwithstanding, Playful Act is also a full-sister to the classy Percussionist, who was respectable over hurdles, and the auntie of Supasundae, Distingo, Whispering Gallery and Great Bear. Harlem Soul's hurdling debut came in a Wincanton novice a fortnight where he was an 11/1 shot. His temperament was not alleviated by his castration however as he took a keen hold and gave his flights plenty of air. Initially racing prominently, he tracked the leader for much of the contest, but lost ground on the turn for home; making no further impression and finishing tired. Harlem Soul can improve for the experience, but said improvement would have to be highly dramatic if he is to mature sufficiently to make a strong challenge in this company.
My Ticketyboo bg Chris Gordon j2-0-0 (-) 73 78
Shirocco (Subtle Power){1-b}(0.57) 2/1 Sher Beau 3rd John Durkan Punchestown Chase (G1), Punchestown 2006
As alluded to in Interne de Sivola's profile, unraced debutants in juvenile hurdles have a modest record and when isolating Irish breds, their first time strike rate is just 1.71%. If anything can be said for My Ticketyboo's breeding, it is that he has a proper national hunt pedigree. Shirocco has produced the likes of Annie Power and Minella Rocco, damsire Subtle Power was responsible for Lie Forrit and Highland Hunter, the dam is a half-sister to four good winners in Sher Beau, Last Goodbye, Freds Benefit and Glen Beg while coming from the same line as Givus A Buck. However, the aforementioned all started in bumpers and points while Shirocco's winner to runner rate with juveniles is a moderate 12.50%. Chris Gordon does have a winner to runner rate of 23.33%, but his first time strike rate was just 3.57% prior to My Ticketyboo making his hurdling debut at Hereford in early January. Starting the day at 20/1, but starting the race at 50/1, he was in the rear from the outset. After jumping slowly over the first, and big and skewed over the next two, he became so detached that no more of his jumps were picked up by the cameras. Stepping up to nineteen furlongs for a Fontwell maiden at the end of last month, he raced in mid-division for the first circuit and though dropping to the rear for the second lap, was able to pass a couple of beaten rivals on the run to the last before finishing a twenty-nine length fourth of seven finishers. Though awkward over the first and last pair of jumps, he hurdled more fluently for his Hereford experience. It is not unfeasible that My Ticketyboo does have a future as a national hunt racehorse, but he would be highly unlikely to make any real impact in this contest.
Strong prospects
1. Hayedo
Reasonable prospects
2. Interne de Sivola
3. Silver Shade
Feasible prospects
.
Moderate prospects
4. Harlem Soul
Negligible prospects
5. My Ticketyboo
Bachelors Hall
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I am not seeing any constructive criticism, but I am seeing someone who - in the politest possible way - appears to be confused about what I am doing in this thread. Nevertheless, I do not expect everybody to have read enough posts to understand why I am not a tipster and there may be some newcomers or lurkers who have just caught this thread recently. So for that sake, I will attempt to elucidate things.
Essentially, I want to understand this niche area of the sport in its fullest capacity. Writing about it is probably an effective way of going about things but if it isn't, then it is no great loss since I have fun doing the previews and other pieces all the same.
Regarding the "prospects list" thing, I am just going to lift this from the preview I posted on the blog for the 7th of Janurary contest at Wetherby;-
"First and foremost, I must make it abundantly clear that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. Nothing I ever write is a tip. Ever. I very seldom bet myself thus I would be categorically averse to suggesting anybody risks their money on the basis of my content. I write only to inform, never to advise. The prospects thing you see at the bottom is nothing more than a device to see how my analysis matches up to reality thus ascertaining my knowledge and understanding of the sphere. Indeed, while it is nice to feel like a smarty pants, I often prefer there to be errors in the assessments as it means I have more to learn about the discipline. "
The closest comparison I can make to my structuring of the list is someone creating a tissue from scratch. Indeed, this is done without my looking at any bookies' prices or the tissue of others since I do not want my judgement to be influenced by their thoughts - consciously or otherwise. So if those on the top of the "prospects list" match the bookies' favourite then we probably used the same processes to reach the same conclusions.
That I do not look at the prices beforehand ties in precisely with what I wrote on post #134 in this thread (where there is also a P/L table in case you are interested). Due to this process, I have absolutely no means of playing against the market and ascertaining value. My top prospects are who I would hypothetically have as favourite in each juvenile hurdle I preview. Nothing more. If they were tips then I would be much more selective in the races I choose, and much more conscious of whether they represent value. If I had any pretentions of being a tipster, I would like to imagine that profit would be at the forefront of my processes. Since it is essentially impossible to make a profit without being aware of the market, it would be equally impossible for me to be a tipster.
Insofar as the tone you have used is concerned, I can assure you that I am personally ambivalent. My esteem is my own responsibility. If I gave it much thought, I would guess that you are harbouring some unhappiness and this outburst is a symptom. Should this be the case then I wish you nothing but good and hope that you feel better before long. If I am wrong then this wouldn't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last! Either way, I'd suggest that you just be nicer to yourself and to others because there is nothing to be gained from being pointlessly antagonistic and considerably less from being erroneously antagonistic (apart from providing others with an accurate depiction of the idiom "tilting at windmills"). Although as with anything, this is entirely up to you. Have a nice day
Essentially, I want to understand this niche area of the sport in its fullest capacity. Writing about it is probably an effective way of going about things but if it isn't, then it is no great loss since I have fun doing the previews and other pieces all the same.
Regarding the "prospects list" thing, I am just going to lift this from the preview I posted on the blog for the 7th of Janurary contest at Wetherby;-
"First and foremost, I must make it abundantly clear that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. Nothing I ever write is a tip. Ever. I very seldom bet myself thus I would be categorically averse to suggesting anybody risks their money on the basis of my content. I write only to inform, never to advise. The prospects thing you see at the bottom is nothing more than a device to see how my analysis matches up to reality thus ascertaining my knowledge and understanding of the sphere. Indeed, while it is nice to feel like a smarty pants, I often prefer there to be errors in the assessments as it means I have more to learn about the discipline. "
The closest comparison I can make to my structuring of the list is someone creating a tissue from scratch. Indeed, this is done without my looking at any bookies' prices or the tissue of others since I do not want my judgement to be influenced by their thoughts - consciously or otherwise. So if those on the top of the "prospects list" match the bookies' favourite then we probably used the same processes to reach the same conclusions.
That I do not look at the prices beforehand ties in precisely with what I wrote on post #134 in this thread (where there is also a P/L table in case you are interested). Due to this process, I have absolutely no means of playing against the market and ascertaining value. My top prospects are who I would hypothetically have as favourite in each juvenile hurdle I preview. Nothing more. If they were tips then I would be much more selective in the races I choose, and much more conscious of whether they represent value. If I had any pretentions of being a tipster, I would like to imagine that profit would be at the forefront of my processes. Since it is essentially impossible to make a profit without being aware of the market, it would be equally impossible for me to be a tipster.
Insofar as the tone you have used is concerned, I can assure you that I am personally ambivalent. My esteem is my own responsibility. If I gave it much thought, I would guess that you are harbouring some unhappiness and this outburst is a symptom. Should this be the case then I wish you nothing but good and hope that you feel better before long. If I am wrong then this wouldn't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last! Either way, I'd suggest that you just be nicer to yourself and to others because there is nothing to be gained from being pointlessly antagonistic and considerably less from being erroneously antagonistic (apart from providing others with an accurate depiction of the idiom "tilting at windmills"). Although as with anything, this is entirely up to you. Have a nice day
Excellent post BH and I’m sure many on here follow a similar approach when they actually preview a race for betting purposes, i.e.
- Assess each horse’s chance without prejudice from betting forecast
- Upon completion, compare to the available prices
- Bet when there are significant & potentially advantageous discrepancies
People do it using different methods and to varying degrees - some no doubt, without even realising it - but I for one understood the aim of your thread as I’m sure the vast majority of forumites did and while inevitably the favourites are going to appear towards the top of your list quite often, they won’t always and irrespective, it’s always good to read the in depth reasoning.
- Assess each horse’s chance without prejudice from betting forecast
- Upon completion, compare to the available prices
- Bet when there are significant & potentially advantageous discrepancies
People do it using different methods and to varying degrees - some no doubt, without even realising it - but I for one understood the aim of your thread as I’m sure the vast majority of forumites did and while inevitably the favourites are going to appear towards the top of your list quite often, they won’t always and irrespective, it’s always good to read the in depth reasoning.