Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 15 2008, 03:49 PM
He met his first serious challenge yesterday and failed.
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Yes...he never faced anything as good as Neptune Collonges before...

What is it about Cheltenham Steve that you feel does not suit the horse? He was beaten long before stamina was an issue.
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It’s everything about the course Aidan. First of all Denman’s jumping exposes the flaws in the jumping of others. He put Kauto under the sort of pressure he has not experienced before. At Cheltenham they are packed birch fences that if you meet them wrong it’s like hitting a brick wall. Denman is supremely comfortable with these in the way that Kauto isn’t (he has to reach and stretch for them). Watch the shape that Denman’s back makes in the air (jumps it like a stag) then look at how Kauto jumps them (like a cat, always looking for a leg). Denman is a natural jumper Kauto (despite showing improvement) isn’t.

The trip is also not ideal for Kauto, although you wouldn’t want to say he doesn’t get the trip, he doesn’t get it as well as Denman who has stretched them from the front (something that only a stamina horse with high cruising speed can do).

The softer the going round Cheltenham the more Denman is advantaged over Kauto.

It’s not inconceivable that Denman could win the Grand National (this is something Kauto shouldn’t or wouldn’t want to think about).

So in terms of jumping, stamina and going on Friday Denman scored more highly than Kauto. This is why Kauto was never able to land a blow. Kauto must truly have felt like he had had "his head blown off". I just hope the experience doesn’t ruin him. Denman must break their hearts round here.
 
First of all Denman’s jumping exposes the flaws in the jumping of others. He put Kauto under the sort of pressure he has not experienced before.
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This is what I don't buy into. I find it hard to believe that more pressure was put on Kauto Star's jumping yesterday than there was over 2 miles at Sandown, 3 miles on good ground in the King George etc. It would be interesting to know the average speed he was travelling at in the various races.

Like I said, by the time stamina came into play he was beat, he had too much to do.

Neptune Collonges is now rated within 2lbs of Kauto Star's very best performances. Someone is having a laugh surely?
 
am i the only one that thinks kauto under performed massively???

The ground was to soft(tacky) for him for a start,his jumping was in and out and only just beat Neptune Collonges , no disrespect to Neptune Collonges but kauto is by far a better horse than him.I have had a few rows over this run with a few people all ready they come up with the idea that kauto has never ran at a fast paced race before for that i cant believe a horse that has won a tingle creek and a king george with monets garden in it isnt a fast run race i dont know what is.

Kauto will be back FULLY FIT for his title back!
 
Afraid, that apart from cheltenham's fences being stiff, I cant agree with much of Steve M's analysis, for what that is worth.
 
Look, Kauto was jumping badly from the 2nd or 3rd fence! And the racing pros in the room remarked they were going a steady pace when they'd got about half way round the first circuit... So I can't buy this 'Denman put KS under pressure he'd never experienced before".

That is NOT why he was beat so early, and he was - just never going, and was beaten by his own poor jumping LONG BEFORE he was put under any pressure at all.

If KS had run his race, and been beaten at the end by that far, I could buy Denman's infinite superiority - but given the race he *did* run, I think the jury is still out. And btw I'm not one who always thought KS was vastly superior - I'm on record here as saying it would be close, and could well go to Denman if if it came up softer than Good.
 
Headstrong i think the same as you,kauto was finishing better than denman even with such a poor run,it would be interesting to see them both on genuine good ground in the gold cup next year.
 
Originally posted by Garney@Mar 15 2008, 04:38 PM
Afraid, that apart from cheltenham's fences being stiff, I cant agree with much of Steve M's analysis, for what that is worth.
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Well you may not agree, but it's what I thought would happen before the race and it's what I (and others) saw happen in the race. Whether you agree with what happened or not Denman had Kauto beaten everywhere - in the air and up the hill. This is because Denman is a proper Cheltenham type and Kauto isn't.
 
Well if KS was finishing better than Denman...Neptune was finishing better than KS????

I don't agree with Steve re his Cheltenham horse theory either..explained why before. Just because Denman won doesn't mean he is a Cheltenham horse and others aren't..he ran the best race on the day...and possibly has too many guns for Kauto.

As for the pace being strong...it wasn't...and even if it was...KS has 2 mile pace hasn't he??...should be able to jump fences at 3m2f pace i would have thought...seems laughable that Denman can be described as a more speedier jumping horse against KS with the credentials KS has in that department. what price denman in a champion chase? norty

Seems to me that just weighing up what we saw isn't easy....I saw Neptune re catching KS at the finish...that would suggest a lack of stamina in KS...it makes me laugh...you have clear visual evidence that KS was lacking in stamina...but don't see it...but for the last 12 months I have heard him described as a doubtful stayer with NO evidence whatsover...now there is evidence and no one seems to notice...perplexed???
 
Steve, well done on the success. I didnt have a bet in the race myself, but I heard on numerous occasions from Paul Nicholls that he liked Kauto Star for the Gold Cup (ahead of Denman) because he thought that he was an ideal horse for Cheltenham. The reason being that you need a horse that travels off a strong pace there. I'm sure that the three-time winning Gold Cup trainer would benefit from your wisdom.

I disagree that it was ability on the course that beat Kauto Star.
 
after watching the replay of the race so many times i just cant believe this was kauto of the last two years he never traveled at his normal zest and didn't look at all comfortable with himself on the second circuit his jumping looked the worse he has done in some time."Kauto wasn't going a mile from home, so he couldn't have been quite right" quoted from clive smith
 
a lot of these questions may be answered the next time they meet...if they ever do. did KS pay for the jumping errors?...was he at his best?...don't really think he was because that wasn't the same horse that won the KG imho.

same as Neptune...no one really knows his mark yet...has he improved dramatically?...or is he holding the form down?

only time will tell

either way Denman beat what was in in the race...but as with Best Mate...that didn't always impress many people

maybe the clock can confirm the worth of the form norty
 
The thing about being selective about what trainers say is you only listen to what you want to hear. They have to answer a lot of daft questions and say things they don't always mean.

What he also said about Kauto was that he was so good that he simply could not believe he had a better one in the stall next to him. He added that although he felt this he did not know if it was the case that Kauto was better than Denman as he simply didn't know how good Denman might be.

Be under no illusions Nicholls knows that Denman is pefect for Cheltenham Gold Cup course and distance. He after all saddled Denman for the R&SA Chase, and put Kauto in the Champion Chase before he tried him in the Gold Cup.

Fortunately I had the evidence of my own eyes to tell me that Denman was the better horse round Cheltenham. I didn't have to listen to what Nicholls was trapped into saying.

You say you disagree with me, but surely this must be based on something more that what Nicholls said in an unguarded moment. I'd be disappointed if you hadn't made up your own mind.
 
Originally posted by firstpastthepost@Mar 15 2008, 05:30 PM
after watching the replay of the race so many times i just cant believe this was kauto of the last two years he never traveled at his normal zest and didn't look at all comfortable with himself on the second circuit his jumping looked the worse he has done in some time."Kauto wasn't going a mile from home, so he couldn't have been quite right" quoted from clive smith
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He went as well as Denman allowed him to. He was being asked to do everything that much quicker because of the pressure being put on him by Denman. He has not had a horse like Denman to race against before and has had the luxury of doing things in his own time.
 
Originally posted by EC1@Mar 15 2008, 05:33 PM
a lot of these questions may be answered the next time they meet...if they ever do. did KS pay for the jumping errors?...was he at his best?...don't really think he was because that wasn't the same horse that won the KG imho.

same as Neptune...no one really knows his mark yet...has he improved dramatically?...or is he holding the form down?

only time will tell

either way Denman beat what was in in the race...but as with Best Mate...that didn't always impress many people

maybe the clock can confirm the worth of the form norty
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He wasn't the same horse that won the King George because the Gold Cup is run at Cheltenham. Horses do not maintain the same level of form on completely different courses.

He only ran to 175 here when he won and Exotic Dancer has also run about the same as last year.

It's simply that Denman is better on this course.
 
And that:

Neptune Collonges is within a nose of him at Cheltenham...

Neptune Collonges best at Cheltenham is also within 2lbs of KS best anywhere else...

:rolleyes:
 
I dont rely on Nicholls statements regarding Kauto Star and Cheltenham. The horse won a Gold Cup in good style, not as good he was at Haydock but the horse wasnt in the same form, rather that a discernable dislike to the track, that caused that, IMO. I hope you didnt oppose Kauto last year.

I think there is a lot of merit in what Nicholls says, that you need a horswe that will travel off any pace for a Gold Cup. I expected Kauto Star to at least travel before the crunch time when Denman attacked. Connections also say that Kauto Star is a better horse going left handed. He definitely jumped to the left at Ascot, Kempton and Sandown, but it might be another statement that you disagree with, because it doesnt fit your arguement.

I didnt think that Denman was especially well suited to the course, or in other words, is likely to post better ratings at Cheltenham, just because of the course, and I still dont really. I think his huge stride, and fantastic jumping is better on a flatter track with more conventional run-up to his fences. If he does post his best ratings at Cheltenham its because of the opposition and not because of the course. I dont think the Sun Alliance Chase form from last year is anything special (snowy morning, according to john, aces four, gazza's girl????) and it could be argued that his scrambing defeat of Dont Push it, loss to Nicanor...

Like Kauto Star last year, Denman this year was the best horse on the day, and whatever course the race was run on, the result wouldnt have changed.

But I find the idea that a dual Tingle Creek winner who won a Grade 1 over 2m4f as a prep for the Gold Cup was put under pressure by the sedate pace set by Neptune Collonges and then Denman ridiculous and wrong.

You may have arrived at the right answer, but used the wrong theory.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+Mar 15 2008, 06:55 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ Mar 15 2008, 06:55 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Galileo@Mar 15 2008, 05:46 PM


Neptune Collonges is within a nose of him at Cheltenham...
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Under normal circumstances no, but Denman forced him out of his comfort zone. [/b][/quote]
Euro....regardless of Denman's presence, are you not suspicious that Neptune Collonges travelled much better than KS from the top of the hill? That it took so long for him to get past the grey and he had to be ridden so forcefully to do so?
 
Not only was it a brilliant race to watch but these last few pages suggest it didn't get any closer to settling the argument!

I'm another who can't buy into KS being pressured out of it so early. Watching it at work with a colleague, I remarked as they turned away from the stands that I thought Kauto was beat. At the top of the hill I said I reckoned KS was going to be beaten out of sight. I was amazed that he got past Neptune Collonges from that point.

The pace was good but nothing extraordinary. Hopefully those with digi-recorders can compare race sections with the Foxhunters. Kauto wasn't racing alonside Denman so I can't see that the latter's jumping pressurised the former into making mistakes.

I was aware of Steve's views on the suitability of the course for each and checked back through my ratings but I couldn't find any concrete evidence to support the view that KS runs 10lbs below form here.

As they raced between the last two, I said to my colleague that I thought Denman was out on his feet. His twelve-length lead was being whittled away and Neptune C was re-closing on Kauto. I'd conclude Denman was slowing up fastest of these three, followed by Kauto and Neptune was the one maintaining his pace better over the last two and up the run-in. They might all have been slowing up more than Halcon G, giving the impression that he was hammering home. I think Denman's surge a mile out put the others to the sword but emptied him too. HG couldn't go with them a mile out but was staying on at the same pace all the way.
 
Clive Smith said something along the lines of "We'll beat him next time". I suspect they will go looking for Denman and we will see them clash sooner.
 
I am pretty much of the same mind DO. But I do think that it was KS horlicks at the last, when Ruby still thought there might be a tiny chance of winning that caused NC to close to a nose at the line.

But I think HG ate the hill. He was level with Knowhere at the third last, flew by Exotic Dancer, and ended up 8l off Kauto Star. If he was staying on at the same pace, the others were slower than walking. Maybe Thornton sensed the horse get a second or third wind once 4th was up for grabs.
 
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