Kauto Star Or Denman
- Thread starter Euronymous
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To me Denman has run to around 170 or so this this. His Hennessy race (for all that is was impressive visually) has turned out to be one of the worst renewals in years, his Lexus effort was run at crawl (which admitidlly did not suit him) and his race at Newbury was an egg and spoon race.
How he can be officially rated 180 is a joke, who has him rated 180 anyway?
How he can be officially rated 180 is a joke, who has him rated 180 anyway?
How's that contradicting myself? I'm saying that around 182 (or slightly higher) is as good as KS is, as when you are beaten you tend to run to your extent (i.e. your true mark), assuming you have run your race. It seems that he did just about run his race too as he achieved the same mark of 182 when winning at Haydock and 179 most recently at Ascot.
Also, I do not believe KS is capable of reproducing a 182+ mark at Cheltenham (where he isn't as good as he is elsewhere, 175).
Also, I do not believe KS is capable of reproducing a 182+ mark at Cheltenham (where he isn't as good as he is elsewhere, 175).
And your ignoring his 185 RPR in the King George on the bridle....why?
KS never travelled at yard at Aintree, looking sluggish and ring rusty. At Haydock he showed much more dash and sparkle…running a massive race when you consider how far out he took it up. He stayed on strongly there….while in the King George he was just awesome in terms of jumping, stamina, acceleration. Everything.
And your ignoring his 185 RPR in the King George on the bridle....why? [/b][/quote]
I'm not ignoring it. That's why I said he is capable of slightly higher than 182.
The point is that he will not be able to do this at Cheltenham.
Fascinating stuff; and with the weather changing I'll have a small saver FCT Denman to beat Kauto.... BUT!!
When Kauto was beaten early in the season, besides possibly being a bit unfit, Nicholls fully admitted he had been training KS wrongly by working him with 2 mile horses. He said later than as soon as he started training him exclusively as a STAYER he improved enormously and was much happier in his work. So I don't think you can take that one losing run at face value - I've discounted it as a form indicator.
When Kauto was beaten early in the season, besides possibly being a bit unfit, Nicholls fully admitted he had been training KS wrongly by working him with 2 mile horses. He said later than as soon as he started training him exclusively as a STAYER he improved enormously and was much happier in his work. So I don't think you can take that one losing run at face value - I've discounted it as a form indicator.
And youOriginally posted by betsmate+Mar 10 2008, 02:14 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (betsmate @ Mar 10 2008, 02:14 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@Mar 10 2008, 12:59 PM
It's good to see you have such a strong opinion.
[/b][/quote]Can't wait... it's so satisfying being proved right.
You state Denman is capable of half a stone better, yet Kauto Star is only "slightly better" despite winning at a rating of 185 hard held.
Certainly not a rating expert..but those experts have got it wrong in the past before, Black Jack Ketchum etc. Denman's form has more holes in it than Black Jacks did and thats saying something!!
Certainly not a rating expert..but those experts have got it wrong in the past before, Black Jack Ketchum etc. Denman's form has more holes in it than Black Jacks did and thats saying something!!
There's no need to get upset Aidan. That is what I believe. Maybe I'm wrong and you are right. I don't think you are though.
Why bring BJK into it? I thought he was a very good horse. Either I was wrong or there is something to the staement that his back has been found to be out of alignment with his neck and tail this season i.e. he has a physical problem. Something I always said might prove to be the case.
Why bring BJK into it? I thought he was a very good horse. Either I was wrong or there is something to the staement that his back has been found to be out of alignment with his neck and tail this season i.e. he has a physical problem. Something I always said might prove to be the case.
Shadow Leader
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I can't have that BJK's form had less holes in in that Denman's - not in a million years! BJK's form had so many holes you could drive a tank through them.
Gareth you really seem to willfully be missing the point here. I'm not arguing that Kauto has a higher rating than Denman. This is something I stated at the beginning. What I am saying is that I believe he will not be able to reproduce his best at Cheltenham, while Denman I believe will and probably better his best.
When assessing the ability of a horse it pays to look for a level of form to which it can achieve under particular circumstances. This may not be the best rating it has achieved under ideal conditions.
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Precisely my point, Steve - I don't see them either!
Indeed I realised that.
Unfortunately people can lose their objectivity when arguing about something they feel passionate about.
The Kauto Star vs. Denman debate should be about arriving at an objective position by weighing up the pros and cons of each. I am very happy to stick by my assessment and back Denman against Kauto on this occasion.
The second in the Hennessy- Dream Alliance – has been pulled up/unseated/pulled up on his next three starts…… the runner up in the race at Newbury has since been beaten 20 lenghts in a Grade 3 next time out…..The Listener slaughtered Beef Or Salmon in the Hennessy pointing to how falsely run the Leopardstown race at Christmas was………Denman might well be capable of a 180 plus performance but for me (and as has been pointed out I am no expert) he is not in the Kauto Star & Moscow Flyer club yet on what he has actually achieved.
As for the Black Jack Ketchum comment, it was not me getting upset or anything. He was the supposed “potential” horse and plenty were dismissing Ingles Drever but when he was genuinely tested for some reason or another he came up woefully short.
As for the Black Jack Ketchum comment, it was not me getting upset or anything. He was the supposed “potential” horse and plenty were dismissing Ingles Drever but when he was genuinely tested for some reason or another he came up woefully short.
Harbinger
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You're the one missing the point, Steve.
I'm not arguing with you about Denman, nor am I arguing with you about whether Kauto is capable of his very best at Cheltenham.
IMO, at the current prices the evidence is nowhere near conclusive enough to be so bullish about either one.
What I am questioning is your claim that Kauto only "slightly bettered" his Aintree performance at Kempton. I don't see how 3lbs can be considered a "slight amount" when it is so often the difference between winning and losing.
Of course, if you don't believe that Kauto is capable of running to his best at Cheltenham then surely Kauto's entire non-Cheltenham form is irrelevant?
I'm not arguing with you about Denman, nor am I arguing with you about whether Kauto is capable of his very best at Cheltenham.
IMO, at the current prices the evidence is nowhere near conclusive enough to be so bullish about either one.
What I am questioning is your claim that Kauto only "slightly bettered" his Aintree performance at Kempton. I don't see how 3lbs can be considered a "slight amount" when it is so often the difference between winning and losing.
Of course, if you don't believe that Kauto is capable of running to his best at Cheltenham then surely Kauto's entire non-Cheltenham form is irrelevant?
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Hang on a second, I'm failing for a second to see how The Listener slaughtering Beef Or Salmon thus proving how falsely run the Lexus was is a hole in Denman's form? Forgive me if I am wrong, the horse more likely to suffer from a lack of pace is Denman, yet he still won the race, and cosily. The horse he beat that day then went on to hack up in the Hennessy - which is franking the form surely? You can't have it both ways can you?
If the false pace argument is being used to argue it wouldn't have suited The Listener, it certainly applies to Denman also as it wouldn't have suited him equally. Let's not forget that The Listener is also perfectly capable of forcing the pace and setting a decent gallop, which he could have chosen to do had he so wished.
The way the race was run would have suited neither horse, yet Denman still won the race cosily.
If the false pace argument is being used to argue it wouldn't have suited The Listener, it certainly applies to Denman also as it wouldn't have suited him equally. Let's not forget that The Listener is also perfectly capable of forcing the pace and setting a decent gallop, which he could have chosen to do had he so wished.
The way the race was run would have suited neither horse, yet Denman still won the race cosily.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That goes totally against the trainers views. He said Cheltenham is a course made for KS and that if the Gold Cup was run at Newbury he`d favour Denman. I must say i don`t know where he gets that from, but it illustrates how closely he thinks they`re matched.
The Listener team got their tactics completely wrong at Christmas....and corrected their error in the Hennessy next time. Denman would have been suited by a stronger pace but at least he was right up there in front ready to cover any moves. So yes he would have been suited by a stronger pace but equally it does not take away from the main point that the Lexus form, and indeed all of Denman’s form this year is based on very dodgy form lines…particularly when your taking on a horse like Kauto Star.