Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

  • Total voters
    1
Originally posted by SteveM+Mar 10 2008, 02:45 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (SteveM @ Mar 10 2008, 02:45 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Unfortunately people can lose their objectivity when arguing about something they feel passionate about.[/b]
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<!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@Mar 8 2008, 04:10 PM
I not only think Kauto won't win but can't see how he can win (short of Denman falling down a hole). Denman looks bomb proof to me. He will will gallop all over them.[/quote]

I am starting to wonder whether you are leg-pulling.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+Mar 10 2008, 03:59 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ Mar 10 2008, 03:59 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@Mar 10 2008, 02:34 PM
I'm not arguing that Kauto has a higher rating than Denman. This is something I stated at the beginning. What I am saying is that I believe he will not be able to reproduce his best at Cheltenham, while Denman I believe will and probably better his best.
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That goes totally against the trainers views. He said Cheltenham is a course made for KS and that if the Gold Cup was run at Newbury he`d favour Denman. I must say i don`t know where he gets that from, but it illustrates how closely he thinks they`re matched. [/b][/quote]
Yes Euro, an interesting comment. I think what the trainer probably was getting at was the Denman loves to get into a rhythm, he is a galloper. Probably easy to do that on a flat track like Newbury where as Cheltenham things can happen very quickly and the natural pace of Kauto Star should be an asset there. Ruby Walsh has long said, before these two, that you need a horse with plenty of pace for Cheltenham…not just stamina.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Mar 10 2008, 02:30 PM
I can't have that BJK's form had less holes in in that Denman's - not in a million years! BJK's form had so many holes you could drive a tank through them.
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:clap:

Spot on.

Denman's novice form is heaps stronger than Black Jack Slowboat and he heads his class on my ratings by a quite considerable distance.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+Mar 10 2008, 02:59 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ Mar 10 2008, 02:59 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@Mar 10 2008, 02:34 PM
I'm not arguing that Kauto has a higher rating than Denman. This is something I stated at the beginning. What I am saying is that I believe he will not be able to reproduce his best at Cheltenham, while Denman I believe will and probably better his best.
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That goes totally against the trainers views. He said Cheltenham is a course made for KS and that if the Gold Cup was run at Newbury he`d favour Denman. I must say i don`t know where he gets that from, but it illustrates how closely he thinks they`re matched. [/b][/quote]
It may go against the trainer's view. I've never been too bothered about going against the trainer's view. It's obvious to me who will perform better round Cheltenham - the one who jumps packed birch fences and outstays the other one.
 
Originally posted by betsmate+Mar 10 2008, 03:00 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (betsmate @ Mar 10 2008, 03:00 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by SteveM@Mar 10 2008, 02:45 PM
Unfortunately people can lose their objectivity when arguing about something they feel passionate about.
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<!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@Mar 8 2008, 04:10 PM
I not only think Kauto won't win but can't see how he can win (short of Denman falling down a hole). Denman looks bomb proof to me. He will will gallop all over them.
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I am starting to wonder whether you are leg-pulling. [/b][/quote]
That's my objective assessment in a nutshell.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Mar 10 2008, 02:52 PM
You're the one missing the point, Steve.

I'm not arguing with you about Denman, nor am I arguing with you about whether Kauto is capable of his very best at Cheltenham.

IMO, at the current prices the evidence is nowhere near conclusive enough to be so bullish about either one.

What I am questioning is your claim that Kauto only "slightly bettered" his Aintree performance at Kempton. I don't see how 3lbs can be considered a "slight amount" when it is so often the difference between winning and losing.

Of course, if you don't believe that Kauto is capable of running to his best at Cheltenham then surely Kauto's entire non-Cheltenham form is irrelevant?
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You're getting fixated in the abstract Gareth. It's the one who is able to produce the best performance round Cheltenham on Friday that counts, not which one is ahead on a theorectical slide rule so far. All of the evidence points to Denman running the better race.
 
All of the evidence points to Denman running the better race.
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What, even the bit of evidence that shows Cheltenham as being the only place where Denman has lost, and the only place where anything has gotten close to beating him over fences?
 
What I am saying is that I believe he will not be able to reproduce his best at Cheltenham, while Denman I believe will and probably better his best

Steve

it's this aspect of your case in favour of Denman thats looks completely the opposite to me

You think an on pace Denman will be suited to Cheltenham?... a course that generally isn't the easiest to make the running on and win..or sit near a decent pace. On the other hand a horse like KS who will be produced later surely has the course edge here?

If this is your main reason for splitting the two horses i feel it's flawed

I do like your confidence though I must admit...it's nice to see someone nail their colours up

Denman will not win though unfortunately :P
 
:D I would love to see him running in that. Imagine if Smith assessed him at like 185 and there were three horses in the Handicap proper.
 
Can everyone have a look at what Our Vic did to Mossbank (a poorly ridden on) and The Listener who have chased home Denman and remember then what Kauto Star did to Our Vic.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 13 2008, 03:06 PM
Can everyone have a look at what Our Vic did to Mossbank (a poorly ridden on) and The Listener who have chased home Denman and remember then what Kauto Star did to Our Vic.
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Mmm i feel myself changing my mind - the hype machine surrounding the race seems to be favouring Denman and really if it gets close in the market i`ll be trading in favour of the Champ.

Also, in the RP`s ongoing ask a celebrity who will win Michael Dickinson goes for KS and Jodie Kidd Denman. Poweful argument just there.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 13 2008, 03:06 PM
Can everyone have a look at what Our Vic did to Mossbank (a poorly ridden on) and The Listener who have chased home Denman and remember then what Kauto Star did to Our Vic.
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I'm feeling more and more comfortable on Kauto.
 
Who would have thought either Kauto Star or Denman might not be the highest rated animal over jumps in the country after this festival?
 
I have backed Exotic Dancer e/w just now....the match up will come the fruition but it will not be Kauto Star vs Denman in my opinion.... KS versus ED.
 
Ladbrokes go:

Kauto Star: 5/4
Denman 2/1
Exotic Dancer: 10/1

They are the longest on the top two and the shortest on Exotic Dancer.
 
Congratulations to Anna Botting on Sky News for being the only person to pronounce Kauto's name right on TV all year.
 
Haven't read this thread so not sure if I'm putting a cat among the pigeons by saying Neptune Collonges will cause an upset.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Mar 13 2008, 09:39 PM
Congratulations to Anna Botting on Sky News for being the only person to pronounce Kauto's name right on TV all year.
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Didn't they say originally it was actually pronounced KOTO STAR, yet even connections now seen to call him CAUGHTO?
 
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