Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman


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Originally posted by an capall@Feb 9 2008, 04:58 PM
4. He has an engine like a 747.
Doesn't he just?

It's also worth pointing out that Denman was very much idling in front yesterday - he hardly did a tap in the race, it was like a morning schooling session at home for him I'm sure!
 
From the Hennessy
Knowhere and Madison boosting
Dream Alliance run well today
Bible Lord won


The Lsitener at Leop


all good boosts


I would like to have seen Denman in the entries for the Grand National
 
Denman (NAP)

We know roughly how good Kauto Star is - and that is very very good indeed - around a 182-184 horse when he has his conditions.

Denman hasnt run to that figure yet, but I am utterly convinced he will prove to be even better than Kauto Star - he just smashes what is put in front of him and looks to be an improving and unstoppable machine.
 
I'm convinced we saw the Gold Cup winner at Newbury yesterday - and have also told plenty of people such!

I thought after the Hennessy that he had a great chance of overhauling Kauto Star, now I just think he will gallop and jump them all (including KS who may find stamina wanting in such a test) into the ground to win. I can see him being half a dozen lengths clear coming down the hill.
 
I would like to think, and I do hope, that you are right, Shads, but as I said, somewhere above, I have that Mill House/Arkle scenario haunting me................only about 40 years ago, y'know.
 
can someone explain why Kauto Star doesn't stay?

i've heard it a few times..but can't see it


he has won a Gold Cup...but doesn't stay?

he has won at Haydock over 3 miles off a very strong gallop ..18/11/06 ...beating stayer BOS..but doesn't stay?

he has beaten "stayer" Exotic Dancer each time they have met...but doesn't stay?

what does a horse have to do to prove he stays then?
 
I dont believe that Kauto Star has a stamina issue, but I will help you out here EC1. Kauto Star has run at 3m2 1/2f once. In last year's Gold Cup. However that was run at a dawdling pace. If Denman, who won a Hennessey over 3m2f, a Sun Alliance Chase over 3m1f, really attacks, it might expose Kauto Star as not being a strong enough stayer.
 
Think the argument is that last year's Gold Cup was slowly run, and staying 3m 2f. at a proper Gold Cup pace is very different to winning over 3 miles at Haydock and Kempton.

It can only be "guesswork" at this stage but until he wins over the Gold Cup course at a Gold Cup pace people are "allowed" to have that opinion, in my opinion. :D
 
I'm not saying he doesn't stay, I'm saying that faced against an end to end true gallop over the Gold Cup trip at Cheltenham his stamina may not last out as well as Denman's. I'm not so sure he can get up the hill as well as Denman can after a race run over this distance and at this track at a decent clip. In short, I believe that Denman will be far better suited to the race than Kauto Star and I can fully see him being clear coming down the hill with nothing behind him able to get to him.
 
even a "steadily" run GC would require a decent amount of stamina though imho

i think it's looking for a chink that isn't really there in the attempt to spot some flaw in the horse...i've packed in trying tbh..i can't find a genuine one..the horse is a freak.

There is no doubt in my mind that KS will take Denman apart in the GC on what i've seen up to press.

Talking of false run races...Denman has never produced a speed figure anywhere near KS yet...and has had many chances...does that mean he is a doubtful stayer as well?...as all his races must have been steady run early which usually creates mediocre speed figures......because if they weren't Denman should have recorded at least one big figure before now.

Either Denman has not taken part in a true staying test..or he is not capable of putting up a big speed figure...the Denman backers will be hoping it is the former..if it is the latter he won't place in the GC imho.
 
I tend to view this differently to everyone else I think, as I'll legislate for the fact that he was a novice, and therefore on a development curve, with a reasonable anticipation of improvement.

The Sun Alliance Chase is the other race at Cheltenham that tends to be habitually run on the slow side (not anywhere near as bad as the Stayers Hurdle though) but still detectable. With this in mind I prefer to benchmark his figure against those that I awarded to previous winners in order to get a handle on where he sits historically against horses whose form is now known, and a matter for the history books.

Until last year, the biggest single level of superiority I had for any grade 1 Cheltenham winner was Moscow Flyer, who I had some 8L's clear of his nearest pursuer in the Arkle. In this case, it proved to be useful benchmark as the horse would go onto establish himself as "a great". However, by virtue of running a faster time than standard on offically soft ground, MWDS closed this gap. The horse that now holds this questionable accolade is Denman, who in wining the SAC the next day, ran 5.75L's faster than his nearest historical pursuer (Florida Pearl). The only other horse who is significantly superior to any winner of the last 12 years is Detroit City in the Triumph.

I'm prepared to use this high water mark benchmarked against other historical performances, and the fact that he has the highest level of superiority over all other winners of any grade 1 race, as evidence of his ability?.

Strictly speaking I think he has a higher TS than Kauto did as a novice too?

Also if I asked you to guess who the respective top rated are, you'd probably get all 9 of them, or certainly 8, so there's an element of substance behind the rating as there's few surprises (if any) which might otherwise point towards a flawed methodology
 
There's the added fact that Denman when I've seen him racing 'in the flesh' - which incs his last two runs - does not appear to me to have been extended in any way: he has won very easily. This means we don't really know yet how much speed he can call on if he does need to battle KS up the hill. I don't think speed figures are much help here as Denman hasn't really 'had a race' yet.

If he can set a gallop a bit faster throughout than he usually does, and who's to say he can't, then he may steal the race - KS may be in trouble... I still think on balance that KS will beat him this year, but I think these two will be very well clear of the rest.
 
The Racing Post are giving the winner of the four runner contest an RPR of 178 just three pounds lower than what Moscow Flyer got his second Tingle Creek. I am giving up on ratings. It’s a joke.
 
It is hard to assess such a race accurately Galileo.

However, it is surely massive odds on that Denman is capable of returning such a number, so it would seem a fair enough guess?
 
Maybe Denman is being rated on what the handicapper thinks he *could* have done if he'd been pushed by a better field LOL [see my post just above]. There is no doubt in my mind at all that he won the Aon at a canter and is capable of much more than he has so far shown us.
 
Originally posted by tdk@Feb 11 2008, 10:17 AM
It is hard to assess such a race accurately Galileo.

However, it is surely massive odds on that Denman is capable of returning such a number, so it would seem a fair enough guess?
Thats hardly the point is it? Your rated on what you run to. I don’t believe Denman is a 180 plus horse but I can understand why some think he is capable of it. But that is not the point, your rated on what you actually achieve and there is absolutely no way a four runner trial for Cheltenham is within a few pounds of the greatest 2 mile chase we have seen in years. Ratings like that belittle what genuine champions achieve on the big day.
 
Yes, put a P, p, or a + after the rating if the horse is capable of better. The figure is what it ran to.

Not being a ratings expert myself, is there any possibility that to jusitfy earlier loftier ratings, raters would take an optomistic view.

Its hard to see BoS being a 170 horse at the moment, but that is what he got for running Denman so close in the Lexus. A rising tide lifts all boats.
 
Gal, as TDK has said, it is very difficult to rate some races.

You remember the prolonged discussion on Hawk Wing's Lockinge.

If you had given him a rating for what he did that day it would have been off the scale.

Denman has beaten a 150-rated horse, in Regal Heights, by 20 lengths easing up, I'll accept that Regal Heights was also eased but a rating of 170 with a lot of question marks behind it wouldn't be unfair, would it.

It wouldn't be a figure that I would use in any future race ,as I believe the figures in the Lexus and Hennessy would be more robust.

The RP handicapper is expected to give a rating and the only thing you could say is that all the marks he has put up for the race should have a question mark behind them.
 
Originally posted by Galileo+Feb 11 2008, 08:44 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Galileo @ Feb 11 2008, 08:44 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-tdk@Feb 11 2008, 10:17 AM
It is hard to assess such a race accurately Galileo.

However, it is surely massive odds on that Denman is capable of returning such a number, so it would seem a fair enough guess?
Thats hardly the point is it? Your rated on what you run to. I don’t believe Denman is a 180 plus horse but I can understand why some think he is capable of it. But that is not the point, your rated on what you actually achieve and there is absolutely no way a four runner trial for Cheltenham is within a few pounds of the greatest 2 mile chase we have seen in years. Ratings like that belittle what genuine champions achieve on the big day. [/b][/quote]
Just becuase it is a trial featuring inferior opponents, it doesn't follow that a horse may not run to a higher rating than in a championship race.
 
Denman beats Ollies 89L's at Newbury
Kauto beats Ollie 86L's at Haydock
Denman therefore beats Kauto 3L's in March :P

QED :D
 
Originally posted by tdk+Feb 11 2008, 10:57 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (tdk @ Feb 11 2008, 10:57 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by Galileo@Feb 11 2008, 08:44 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-tdk
@Feb 11 2008, 10:17 AM
It is hard to assess such a race accurately Galileo.

However, it is surely massive odds on that Denman is capable of returning such a number, so it would seem a fair enough guess?

Thats hardly the point is it? Your rated on what you run to. I don’t believe Denman is a 180 plus horse but I can understand why some think he is capable of it. But that is not the point, your rated on what you actually achieve and there is absolutely no way a four runner trial for Cheltenham is within a few pounds of the greatest 2 mile chase we have seen in years. Ratings like that belittle what genuine champions achieve on the big day.
Just becuase it is a trial featuring inferior opponents, it doesn't follow that a horse may not run to a higher rating than in a championship race. [/b][/quote]
I am not talking about any championship race.

Do you honest think he ran on Saturday close to the level Moscow Flyer/Azertyuiop/Well Chief?

Or even forget that…..Denman’s win is meant to be on par with Kauto Stars thrashing of Our Vic and co in the King George. Its just does not make sense.

Denman may well hit those heights in the Gold Cup etc but there is a rush to give him a rating that he has not achieved yet and it takes away from the merits of Moscow Flyer and Kauto Star who did produce genuine 180 plus performances.
 
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