Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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The point is, they are both pure class.

I stood somewhere near Kathy today, when Deman was walking - he was striding more like - round the paddock.
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Couldnt agree more and i was near that spot too :D

Two best staying chasers since dessie. Little doubt in my mind about that.

I think there is little doubt that KS stays in normal circumstances but staying against Denman is a very different issue. The ultimate test surely?

Up until the King George i thought KS may be vulnerable to Denman, but for me boxing day was his best performance to date and with his improved jumping, I think hes a better horse than last year
 
I think there is little doubt that KS stays in normal circumstances but staying against Denman is a very different issue. The ultimate test surely?
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This is my problem. People are talking as though Kauto Star is the one with something to prove where as imo opinion it is the other way around. I can understand why people think Denman could beat KS but its up to him to improve to do so not the other way around.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Feb 11 2008, 09:05 AM
Do you honest think he ran on Saturday close to the level Moscow Flyer/Azertyuiop/Well Chief?
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Yes - he ran close to it. If horses of that ability had been fighting out the finish with Denman on Saturday with the likes of Regal Heights stuffed 20l, I wouldnt have any problem rating it at that kind of level.
 
20l and six pounds

Given that the RPR for Regal was 160 for his last run (and i am no expert here) isnt the 178 is justifiable

Celestial and Ollie are not bad yardsticks too?
 
Ok. They are a very erratic now. Decent horses at their best, rather than yardsticks is what i should have said
 
I think Denman proved that Ollie Magern simply cannot live with him. I had Ollie Magern down as one of two possibles to contest Denman's lead at Cheltenam. The other is Aces Four.

He arguably proved in the Sun Alliance that he can handle Aces Four, and he also proved at Newbury that he can drop in when it suits him - i.e. he doesn't have to be in front all of the time.

As for this being another "Arkle v Mill House".

The comparison isn't without substance. Mill House was a giant like Denman, Arkle more athletic and greyhound like, in the Kauto type.

However, Mill House went to Cheltenham with a Gold Cup, King George and Hennessey to his name. Denman only has one of those in his trophy cabinet thus far. Arkle was all about potential in March 1964. Having won the Broadway/Sun Alliance in 1963, he had already failed his first big test when trailing in 3rd in the 1963 Hennessey, beaten by Mill House and Happy Spring (although his slip at the 19th didn't help his cause).

I think Willoughby is probably right to say many shrewd judges were in the Mill House camp because of his Hennessey defeat of Arkle and his overall profile. The Hennessey did leave some judges believing Arkle's jumping had let him down when tested by the "big horse". Of course history showed that to be totally wrong.

I was mightily impressed with the visual spectacle of Denman's win on Saturday, however I cannot bring myself to split the two Nicholls horses and won't be having a bet.

Also, I don't think Denman is similar to Carvill's Hill. Carvill's Hill would set up incredible distances between himself and the other horses and maintain a relentless cruising speed. Denman's style is to just sit on the front end and wind it up gradually.
 
Having now read page 2 of the thread, I am interested how the word "stays" is used to describe if a horse can win a race or not.

This was discussed at length on my Mark Johnston thread.

I think the word is misleading. If Kauto Star challenges Denman for the lead jumping the last on March 14th, and Denman wins by 2 lengths, the two 10 lengths clear of their rivals, does this mean Kauto Star has not "stayed"? Or will it simply mean he was beaten by a better rival on the day?

I think if a horse has never won at a trip, nor shown any indication of any chance of winning at that trip or further at any stage of his career, then you can safely say that he is a "non-stayer". When a horse has winning form at a trip, but is defeated by a better horse on the day this ought to be described in a better way than simply "he failed to stay".
 
Having considered this long and hard, I am now of the view that Denman is unbeatable in the Gold Cup, ceteris paribus.

I wish I had some money to back him.
 
Originally posted by EC1@Feb 10 2008, 10:54 PM
There is no doubt in my mind that KS will take Denman apart in the GC on what i've seen up to press.

Talking of false run races...Denman has never produced a speed figure anywhere near KS yet...and has had many chances...does that mean he is a doubtful stayer as well?...as all his races must have been steady run early which usually creates mediocre speed figures......because if they weren't Denman should have recorded at least one big figure before now.

Either Denman has not taken part in a true staying test..or he is not capable of putting up a big speed figure...the Denman backers will be hoping it is the former..if it is the latter he won't place in the GC imho.
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Speed figures, schmeed figures - c'mon people, they are not the be all and end all!! The suggestion that the speed figures earned by him either make him a non-stayer (eh?!) or not capable of posting a high speed figure is, to me, a nonsense and just goes to show why I set no store whatsoever by them.

So, that's a new one - Denman doesn't stay?! :laughing: I've heard it all now - as apparently, according to others, Denman is also a "flat track bully" (that's completely aside from the fact that he destroyed the field in a RSA chase and is 3 out of 4 at Cheltenham :suspect: ) and "one paced" :what:

Denman has yet to prove that he can beat Kauto Star but just because he hasn't yet achieved what that animal has done does not mean that Denman isn't capable of beating him, or improving to beat him. It is misleading to take Denman's bare form literally as he has done everything so easily (this season in particular) that no-one knows how much more he could have pulled out of the bag if pressed. There is no doubt that the horse was idling at Newbury, I believe that is why he made one or two uncharacteristic jumping mistakes.

Personally I think 2/1 is an enormous price for the horse in March and have availed myself of some (well, just over that) on the "machine". It's good that we have Kauto Star around to make sure there is such good value available for Denman even only a month before the race! In the absence of KS, Denman would be long odds-on.

I can see the big fella wheeling down the hill 5 or 6 in front still on the bridle....bring it on!
 
useful, your post reminds me of the occasion when a horse was beaten a short-head, or a head, in the Epsom Derby and Julian 'Big-Ears' Wilson immediately stated that the second horse didn't get the trip.

Sorry about the vagueness but I think it might have been Secreto's race!?
 
I think you're putting words in EC1's mouth there SL.

I believe that Denman's SunAlliance win answered questions about his own stamina but plenty of fair judges questioned whether he would truly stay judged on his pedigree and racing style prior to the race. Stamina is a thorny issue and it's highly likely that others in this years field possess greater reserves of stamina than either of the market leaders, but don't have anything like their class but the fact is that Gold Cups in the modern era (post drainage work) are less about absolute stamina and more about raw ability, in which case it's anyone's guess which of Kauto Star or Denman will prevail. We all have our views but there is no compelling evidence to suggest that the market is wrong.
 
Denman is 2.98 on Betfair now, the first time he`s been below 3. I took a (slight) risk saturday morning and had a lump on at 3.45 with a view to trading. Laid off half the stake at 3.2 :(
 
Am I putting words in EC1's mouth? According to him, Denman's speed figures either show the horse may have stamina doubts or isn't capable of posting a decent speed rating, is he not?!

That's all I attributed to him!!
 
SL

I am not going down the speed figure mean everything road here

the simple fact is...if a race is truly run..and the winner wins easily...he really should return a big figure...or it means the win could be misleading.

it is a simple fact that Denman has never recorded a figure near KS.

Another horse that was deemed invincible...Black Jack Ketchum ...had a similar profile to Denman...folk thought he was the second coming...but out of all of his wins he never really was stretched..ie recorded one good time figure....when asked...he has disappointed regularly.

it makes no difference whether you believe speed figures..the fact is that in a true run race they will give you the true measure of a horse...and Denman comes up short...in my opinion.

My view is that Denman followers are backing blindly at the moment because this horse has not proved he can win at championship pace...that does not mean he can't...it means there is doubt. Up to press he has dictated races on his own terms in races that have not looked slow early...in the main...so it is simple logic that if the races have been true tests then his finishing figures tell a tale...that of a horse that is not achieving anything special...bar what you can work out from A v B method of assessment.

whereas with KS we know he is the real deal.

I will never back a horse like Denman against a horse like KS...never..KS has shown the hallmark of class...Denman has plodded round in slow times up to press.

I doubt Denman will ever beat KS unless the latter falls.

just my view
 
SL

I think if people can question KS stamina..because the GC was "steady" early ...then it's fair comment to use the same rules for Denman...he must have run in races with steady early as well...either that or he isn't capable of running between a and b faster than KS

so.. it's every race Denman has run in is slow early...or he isn't very fast

at least ONE of his runs should have been a decent figure...they cannot all have been steady early races surely?

it's nowt to do with obsession with figures..it's simple logic
 
EC1, the last thing I am doing is following a horse "blindly". I am lucky to possess a pair of eyes in my head and I have a mind that is more than capable of making up its own decisions and opinions. I also don't need a set of numbers produced by someone else to tell me what my eyes are telling me as clear as day.

I was also not taken in by the BJK hype so please don't put me in that basket - from early doors I said he was a bridle horse who didn't stay 3m.
 
aye Rory

you might be right...but I have always thought him to be that

i really don't want to rubbish the horse...i am really looking forward to the GC...it's going to be some treat
 
SL

it has NOTHING to do with figures

you really are missing the point

my view is that Denman has not been involved in slow early races all through his career

it follows then that final times for a very good horse should be fast...if no time is lost early...but with Denman they aren't...therefore i can't see how he beats KS...beacuse KS can win truly run races with very good final times...Denman can't or hasn't...so will not beat an upright KS.

if you belive you can judge by eye which horse is better...then i really do admire your judgement...unfortunately i do not have that skill...never have had...but i respect your judgement
 
EC1, simple logic dictates that one uses their eyes and judgement as well as the formbook rather than blindly following figures.

Denman stays all day - there is no doubt over that. It has p*ssed up in a RSA chase and a soft ground Hennessy off top weight, as well as constantly winning over 3m+, going away from the field with every stride whilst posting impressive performances.

There is no way that Denman will not stay the GC trip - his profile, the animal himself and the form he is continually posting all scream stamina.
 
Whether or not Denman can beat KS is another matter; I believe he can - if he fails it will nto be through a lack of stamina!
 
no..it's not a figure exercise SL

it's simply measuring ability

at the end of the day...if Denman has run in evenish paced races..as i belive he has...then he MUST run the latter half of the race fast enough to mark himself as a top class horse...if he fails to return top figures after running even pace then he isn't capable of beating KS...as he can run even pace and return fast final times.

if you remove times completely you are left using other horses...who you have no idea have run near to marks...as yardsticks.

i like to try and use both yardsticks...time and form. Denman does pass the a v b test...but fails the final figure test.

staying...it doesn't really exist does it?...every horse in training stays 10 miles don't they? but how long does it take them to stay 10 miles?

staying is a measure of distance and the time taken to run it...so don't underestimate the clock...because it is a vital ingredient in measuring what we refer to as staying a trip.

you don't say why you think Denman can beat KS...whereas i know why I think he won't...what method have you used to make your judgement?
 
I thought I had said why I believe Denman can beat KS, at the beginning of the thread.

Denman has a high cruising speed and is a brilliant jumper. He can literally gallop and jump them into the ground from the front, ratchet up the pace and be half a dozen lengths clear going down the hill and not stopping with nothing able to get to him. He takes out lengths from other horses with his jumping alone.

You see I can't see why people set so much store in the clock being absolute - it isn't. You factor in lots of different conditions but at the end of the day you can only beat what is put in front of you. How much more impressive did you want Denman to be on Saturday? So, he didn't post what is thought by the number crunchers to be a "decent" speed figure - does that really matter? How much further, and easier, did anyone wish the horse to win the race by? Likewise the Hennessy - and again, as I keep reiterating, the horse dosses out in front on its own. It doesn't have to post record breaking times - it is just dossing along and still p*ssing up in Grade 1 races by wide margins.
 
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