Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

  • Total voters
    1
Couldn't see that bit because some whacking 6-footer got in front of me and hadn't set the recorder so couldn't see it at home!
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As a 6-footer I can only apologise on his behalf! I only remembered it because I was quietly laughing to myself at the absurdity of Beefy trying to win from the front...
 
I suppose I shouldn't be that surprised that two-thirds of you go for Kauto (even though you're wrong). Kauto Star is not the perfect Gold Cup type despite winning it last year and being the most highly rated. Kauto’s jumping is too patchy for me (despite improving). And remember he fell when favourite in the Champion Chase. Denman is a proper Gold Cup type and must surely win. As Arkle did to Mill House, Denman can do to Kauto Star. Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges are big prices for a place. I'd expect Kauto to be placed if completing, but I'm not that confident he'll complete.
 
It's views that make a market. I'm grateful that Kauto supporters are keeping Denman's price bigger than it should be. I've probably had enough on Denman, but will go in again on Denman if Kauto-mania takes over on the day.
 
It does appear that an overwhelming number of people favour Kauto over Denman at the previews etc - if it was a tote based on number of opinions then I reckon Kauto would be 2-5 in a 100% match bet.

I am waiting for the day as I can see Denman touching 2-1 or bigger...

Then it will be time to bet like men...
 
I've already backed him at 2s or slightly bigger. I wouldn't be surprised if you get 2s again on Friday. Anything better than evens is probably value territory on Deman though.
 
Too many on here are thinking of the Kauto Star of this season being the same as last year...he looks a different horse to me.

People comment on his jumping...name me one mistake he has made this season that was anyway worse than Denman taking the one at Newbury by the roots? I actually cannot think of a semblance of a mistake Kauto Star has made. Ruby Walsh said his jumping problems have been ironed out this season and all the evidence backs him up.

"Kauto Star is not the perfect Gold Cup type"...again I disagree. This year he is a thorough stayer...he took it up early in the King George and blew them away, took it up early in the Betfair Chase and did nothing but stay on strongly (to beat the second highest rated chaser in the country Exotic Dancer), he took it up early at Ascot when the further he went the better he looked. The one time he has struggled this season was when he was when he was tested for speed at Aintree. He needs a test of stamina now and as the trainer himself says he doesn't think he would win a Tingle Creek with him anymore.

Kauto Star was not an ideal type for the Gold Cup last year yet he still won, War Of Attrition had stamina doubts and he won it before him while Kicking King was in the same boat before that and he still won it. For a horse of Kauto Star's capabilities a test like the Gold Cup won't matter. Denman will make an ideal pacemaker for both Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer. Funny how many are stating Kauto Star is keeping Denman's price big...I look at it the other way around. KS should be odds on for this and I expect him to win like an odds on shot should.
 
Remaining horses in the Gold Cup:

Aces Four (IRE) 9.g
Afistfullofdollars (IRE) 10.g
Azulejo (FR) 10.g
Billyvoddan (IRE) 9.g
Celestial Gold (IRE) 10.g
Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 8.g
Contraband 10.g
Denman (IRE) 8.g
Exotic Dancer (FR) 8.g
Fustrien du Paon (FR) 12.g
Halcon Genelardais (FR) 8.g
Iron Man (FR) 7.g
Kauto Star (FR) 8.g
Knowhere (IRE) 10.g
Monkerhostin (FR) 11.g
Mossbank (IRE) 8.g
Neptune Collonges (FR) 7.g
Ollie Magern 10.g
Racing Demon (IRE) 8.g
Star de Mohaison (FR) 7.g
 
Desert Orchid wasn't a Gold Cup type either (good as he was elsewhere) but he managed to beat Yahoo in bottomless going. He couldn't have won most other years in this particular race. Kauto is as good, maybe better, than DO, but like DO he has won his Gold Cup. Denman has Kauto beaten in this race all ends up. I not only think Kauto won't win but can't see how he can win (short of Denman falling down a hole). Denman looks bomb proof to me. He will will gallop all over them.

P.S. Mossbank goes for the Ryanair.
 
Again I don't see how Denman has Kauto beaten in this race "all ends up" but sure we will not have long to find out.
 
Denman really looks the part to me, he reminds me so much of Mill House, perhaps half a size smaller. He looks better value than Kauto Star.

Of course, we know what happened to Mill House in the last Big Match.
 
Because Denman is suited to this particular race. Indeed it will bring out his best attributes. Kauto suffers with this race and will struggle in the death with the horse that is suited to it.
 
But again you have made up your mind that Kauto Star will not be suited to this test...I disagree. Think he wants a good test of stamina now, is better going left and has course and distance form. Whats more the likely strong pace will suit him as will the fact Denman will give him a lead and will do all the donkey work.
 
Originally posted by Venusian@Mar 8 2008, 04:14 PM
Denman really looks the part to me, he reminds me so much of Mill House, perhaps half a size smaller. He looks better value than Kauto Star.

Of course, we know what happened to Mill House in the last Big Match.
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I see Denman as the rising force in the guise of Arkle rather than Mill House. Kauto is the Mill House for me in this race - the one who starts favourite and is trounced.

Denman reminds me a lot of Jodami (another ideal Gold Cup type). Denman is probably even better than that one though.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 8 2008, 04:17 PM
But again you have made up your mind that Kauto Star will not be suited to this test...I disagree. Think he wants a good test of stamina now, is better going left and has course and distance form. Whats more the likely strong pace will suit him as will the fact Denman will give him a lead and will do all the donkey work.
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I think Denman will run his own race here. It doesn't especially matter whether he lays off Kauto or takes it up I can't see Kauto having the ability in the air or up the hill to beat him.
 
Steve, I was talking about his appearance, a big powerhouse with a star on his forehead, and almost as good-looking.

But there the similarity ends, KS doesn't resemble Arkle at all, unfortunately.
 
Originally posted by SteveM@Mar 8 2008, 04:18 PM
Denman reminds me a lot of Jodami (another ideal Gold Cup type). Denman is probably even better than that one though.
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He'll need to be if he has plans to finish within 10L of Kauto Star.
 
as far as run styles are concerned...Denman = Mill House...KS = Arkle

it is quite uncanny actually how similar they run

KS will let Denman run ahead and will pounce

I doubt very much that the race is tailormade for Denman...on pace horses are very rarely suited by Cheltenham whereas the course actually suits KS better

so I am really struggling to see your argument Steve on both scores tbh

I hope Denman wins for you...but i'm afraid he is no value to win at 2/1...KS wins friday's race 8 or 9 times out of every 10 imho...so you won't ever see my idea of value in Denman at that price

funny thing the old value thing :)

good luck anyway...i pray both stay upright and we get a race to talk about for years to come.
 
Kauto Star is the best chaser I have ever seen. So although Denman looks deadly, I reckon he is only as good as a Looks Like Trouble, See More Business or Best Mate.

Which won't be good enough.

I think Neptune Collonges will run a big race.
 
Originally posted by Venusian@Mar 8 2008, 04:28 PM
Steve, I was talking about his appearance, a big powerhouse with a star on his forehead, and almost as good-looking.

But there the similarity ends, KS doesn't resemble Arkle at all, unfortunately.
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Yes I realised you were. I was saying how I saw it.
 
Originally posted by Grasshopper+Mar 8 2008, 04:51 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Grasshopper @ Mar 8 2008, 04:51 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@Mar 8 2008, 04:18 PM
Denman reminds me a lot of Jodami (another ideal Gold Cup type). Denman is probably even better than that one though.
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He'll need to be if he has plans to finish within 10L of Kauto Star. [/b][/quote]
I knew someone was going to say that, but Jodami was a very good horse at Cheltenham. It's also worth pointing out that Denman is within 4lb of Kauto already - not bad for a horse that (as some of you think) is all about potential. Denman is a very serious proposition as he is. Kauto has not faced a horse as good in fact.
 
Originally posted by EC1@Mar 8 2008, 04:54 PM
as far as run styles are concerned...Denman = Mill House...KS = Arkle

it is quite uncanny actually how similar they run

KS will let Denman run ahead and will pounce

I doubt very much that the race is tailormade for Denman...on pace horses are very rarely suited by Cheltenham whereas the course actually suits KS better

so I am really struggling to see your argument Steve on both scores tbh

I hope Denman wins for you...but i'm afraid he is no value to win at 2/1...KS wins friday's race 8 or 9 times out of every 10 imho...so you won't ever see my idea of value in Denman at that price

funny thing the old value thing :)

good luck anyway...i pray both stay upright and we get a race to talk about for years to come.
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While I think it inevitable that Mill House and Arkle will be dredged up I really think all such comparison is spurious. These two are what they are and different to the other two. The extent of the comparison for me is to think of Denman as the rising force (Arkle) in comparison with the favourite. Those who took the 7/4 against about Arkle must have thought that Christmas had come early. I expect it to be the same sort of thing with Denman on Friday. This is not to say that I think Denman looks like, sounds like, or performs like Arkle.

Denman is clearly already capable of half a stone more than he has already shown us and the Cheltenham factor alone will swing the exant difference Denman’s way (as he is so much more at ease round Cheltenham than Kauto). Denman is only about 4lb behind Kauto as things stand on whatever ratings you want to look at. If people think Denman is all about potential this makes him some sort of horse.
 
Personally I will be glad when this race is over and all the Denman hype is put to bed.

Quote Clifford Baker,Head Lad at Paul Nicholls

"Denman had better get used to the sight of Kauto's arse, because that's all he's going to see of him!"
 
Originally posted by SteveM@Mar 9 2008, 02:32 PM
Denman is clearly already capable of half a stone more than he has already shown us
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It's certainly not clear to me, Steve. Denman may indeed have further improvement in him but that's by no means certain. I'd say also that it's harder for a horse already at or near the top to find 7lbs than it is for a horse further down the equine scale.
 
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