Kauto Star

trudij said:
This. Bad falls can really scare horses, and it would be interesting to know how much (if at all) they are going to school him before the race now - youd think they would have to school at least once, and hope that its not affected him too much.

Hoepfully it wont have bothered him too much at all and he will be back to his best for the race so that Long Run can beat him fair and square. :whistle:
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Trudi- if Kauto was back to his best that would be a stone up on his Kg win and Long Run wouldn't see him for dust.
 
I've said the same thing myself Adross but I'm not so sure I/we are right in thinking that.

The sectional times for the King George indicate that Kauto is almost as good now as he was when beating Madison De Berlais who wouldn't have blown wind up Long Runs backside.

The ratings are a complete nonsense Kauto was deservedly given a 193 after winning that King George then the idiot handicapper drops him tp 174 because he runs one bad race in last years KG. He'd be shot for that behaviour if it meant anything

When in the history of man has any handicapper been dropped 19lbs overnight?. If Kauto were a handicapper he'd take 6 years to drop him that amount.:rolleyes:

I'm not a fan of Long Run he lacks real superstar status IMO but he is without doubt a class above any horse Kauto has ever met in the King George and even at his very best Kauto could never have put a lot of distance between himself and Long Run conceding weight.

I'd love to think I was wrong but in reality Long Run is avery good horse who isn't that far behind *Kauto Star* in ability and unfortunately will probably kick his old ass in the Gold Cup again.

Be great if Kauto can do it one more time but for the first time in his career I have to oppose him.
 
Ardross said:
Trudi- if Kauto was back to his best that would be a stone up on his Kg win and Long Run wouldn't see him for dust.
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Yeah yeah - yawn.... :D And the horse that was closing and got so close isnt any better than that run is he.... :rolleyes: !!!

while I don't doubt that he fell one teensy bit - its a loveley convenient excuse for all the romantic people who refuse to accept that he might just not be as good any more at Cheltenham, and if they are bang there together at the last he ain't going to beat long run up the hill...

I've backed burton point each way anyway, so I don't really care and will be cheering home everyone come the day - I just plan to enjoy things and look forward to the party.... ;)
 
Kauto was dossing in the KG and Ruby took a pull approaching the last .

My point is that he is not at his best as a 12 year old despite caning Long Run twice .

At his best he would have murdered Long Run
 
Maybe - maybe not.He definately jumped better, thats for sure!!!! Not something that can ever be proved though - so its too simple to speculate.

Can someone on here photoshop all the horses in the 2011 KG grey and put the video up so we dont know which is which and we can all watch it objectively??!!!!
 
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Back in his box

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I wish they'd retire this horse.

He's got nothing left to prove, and I'd rather cherish the memories of that unprecedented 5th King George......and the standing ovation he received when being trotted back at Cheltenham.....than see him taken to the well once too often rising 13yo.

The dream was realised last December at Kempton, and connections were incredibly sporting to let him take his chance at the Festival. If they retire him now, they are all heroes. If not, and Kauto runs poorly at Haydock, or - God forbid - something more serious happens, connections will forever be blamed for pushing just a little too hard, for a little too long. They themselves deserve to be remembered in a positive light, as they have campaigned Kauto stoutly over the years (apart from never running in the RP Chase :()

There is limited-to-little upside in keeping Kauto Star in training. All good things come to an end sometime, and connections should now let the curtain fall gracefully on a career which has been epic on every measure.
 
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I'd still be tempted for one last crack at Kempton. No prep, just straight to Boxing Day, nice and fresh, and retire afterwards come what may.
 
Grasshopper said:
I wish they'd retire this horse.

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They themselves [connections] deserve to be remembered in a positive light, as they have campaigned Kauto stoutly over the years (apart from never running in the RP Chase :()

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There is limited-to-little upside in keeping Kauto Star in training. All good things come to an end sometime, and connections should now let the curtain fall gracefully on a career which has been epic on every measure.
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I'd kill to see him back on a racecourse. Connections, as you say, deserve praise for their campaigning of the greatest steeplechaser for a very long time. It is surely their knowledge which should be used to come to a decision about when he should be retired.

If they feel he is working well and enthusiastically at home then why not have a go? Lets say he is flying at home and they think it is worth running him in the King George. Lets say he wins. Is there "limited-to-little upside in keeping Kauto Star in training" then? There is the possibility of an absolutely enormous upside every time this horse takes to the racecourse again, if indeed he ever does.

But, most importantly, leave connections to make this important decision. There were plenty saying he should be retired after he was pulled up in the Punchestown Gold Cup. A 4th Betfair Chase and a 5th King George later and they were all enjoying a large portion of humble pie. Don't make the same mistake again.
 
I have obviously considered all of that, Zenyatta, but it's perfectly legit of you to make your point. :cool:

I have a one word answer: age.

Kauto Star will be rising 13yo by the time the next King George comes around, and every statistic in the book will tell you that horses this old don't win such races. For all that Kauto Star has sustained an incredibly high level of form over the years, the euphoria of that King George win tended towards the level of the form itself being overlooked.

Subsequent events showed it to be a performance anchored in the low-160's (my view), and with another summer on Kauto's back, the stats tell me that further decline is practically a given (again, my view).

Formwise, Kauto Star is already in the clutches of horses who will progress rather than regress, and I personally feel that he is a very unlikely winner at Kempton. It's primarily this form-based view which drives my why-risk-it? position.

Age withers them all eventually, and I'd be disappointed if what looked like a bit if a fairytale-ending, proved ultimately not to be the case.
 
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Well said Euro.
Southern Hero the only 12 yo to win King George chase, when it was run in Feb 1937.
The likes of Skymas, What a Myth etc won what are now Grade 1 chases at 12 before the grading was introduced. No 13 yo has won such a chase to my knowledge.
Sergeant Murphy winning Grand National prob does not count.
Think Mac Vidi being placed in 1980 Gold Cup at 15 and Royal Bond runner up to Bobsline Punchestown Woodchester Chase at 14 as close as it gets in my racing lifetime. the last race would be Grade 1 if run now.
 
I should like to see him retired but to suggest he ran only to the low 160s in the KG and Betfair strikes me as bollocks . Long Run was undoubtedly overrated in his winning year but I doubt his decline was quite that steep .

KS did not need to be anywhere near his best to win the race but I suspect he ran to a low 170s figure.
 
My heart wants to see him run, and Paul Nicholls will have a pretty good idea of what shape he is in and what level he could conceivably run to once he's fit. I would think that if they believe he can't win he'll be retired, but if they believe he can, then his 6th King George and defying the age stats will absolutely be his crowning glory. The downside for them is he'll face stiffer opposition in the race this season than he did last. But you can't blame connections for finding out if he can do it though by putting him back in training to see how much ability he takes into this season.

My head says he owes them nothing and he's surely too old but I do believe Nicholls and Smith will only agree to run in the KG if he's absolutely up to it, and I believe they are better able to make the right decision than we are. I don't think for one second they won't do the right thing by Kauto, and greed is not a motivator here.

He's the best we've seen since Arkle so who's to say a horse as special as him can't defy stats that others have failed to overturn, and I don't think there's anyone who wouldn't want it to happen if it conceivably can. Finally, they've publically said no decision has been made and right now it's nothing more than a fact finding mission so options are open and Kauto will tell them. Seems a reasonable position to me.
 
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