Kentucky Derby (was: Dunkirk)

OK thanks Gareth. I'm just always v suspicious of those super-muscled US horses...
 
Dunkirk is currently ranked 20th in Graded winnings with $ 150,000 with still a lot of Group races to be run prior to May 2th.

Last years cut off was $ 165,000 so it looks doubtful he will make the cut. Connections may have to run him again in the next two/three weeks to win some more money.

The horse is certainly good enough to be part of the KD field. I think the Florida Derby was the best prep run so far.
 
Yes its a G2 on the Polytrack two weeks prior to the KD.

Not exacly ideal but might get him the money all the same.
 
American racing has little credibility for me, and that is reflected in the amount of interest i have in it.
 
The famous Mullins Milkshake is it Gareth? ;)

The Pamplemousse missed the Santa Anita Derby which made it something of a non-event and a few more GSW's for Pioneer ofthe Nile - despite backing him already for the Kentucky Derby IMO he's probably 5lbs behind the likes of I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Friesan Fire.
 
By NICHOLAS GODFREY6.47PM 6 APR 2009
USA: The participation of Kentucky Derby favourite Quality Road is in jeopardy as the Florida Derby winner is suffering from a quarter-crack in his off hind.
According to the Daily Racing Form, trainer Jimmy Jerkens said on Monday that he is "very concerned" about Quality Road, a best-priced 5-1 with British bookmakers for America's most celebrated race.
However, Jerkens did not rule the son of Elusive Quality out of the race. "You hope it was resolved by now, that's for sure, but he's not out of it yet," he told the Form.
A quarter-crack is a crack in the hoof wall, of varying severity. "The fact that he's not lame from it is a good thing," added Jerkens, who said the injury emerged when Quality Road beat fellow Derby hope Dunkirk in a thrilling renewal of the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.
The crack was patched before Quality Road was shipped back to the trainer's New York base to be prepared for the May 2 Classic at Churchill Downs.
But, although Quality Road trained with the patch on, it became evident that he would not put all his weight on the off-hind foot.
According to the Form, he did light exercise at Belmont on Monday but came back to the barn with blood dripping from the area.
"He galloped this morning and he was absolutely sound on it, but it did trickle a little blood, which means there's still some friction going on in there," Jerkens added. "We have to get that inflammation out before we do anything."
Jerkens reckons Quality Road, scheduled to leave for Kentucky on April 28, could still make Kentucky if he responds to treatment and is able to do a couple of strong workouts.
 
Edgar Prado will probably ride Dunkirk now.

There should be plenty of pace on in the Derby which will suit him. Gomez has never won the race whereas Prado has.
 
Gomez won the final trial last night for Tod Pletcher.Was last for most of the race but charged home in the final quarter mile.
The former John Best trained Square Eddie made a massive move about half a mile out and looked to have the race won but completely fell in a hole.It was such a massive move that I cant see it improving his chances in the big one.I would see him needing time to recover from last night.
 
Pretty sure I read RUK were giving it the full treatment (along with the Preakness & Belmont)
 
Square Eddie now out- I have to say I'm happy he's not racing- he was rushed back a lot sooner than he should have been to make the Derby. This and Quality Road's exit paves the way for 2 more Pletcher horses to make the field. He could have 4 in the race.
 
I like Dunkirk and wish him well, but because of his relative inexperience and the nature of the race, I think if he places it should be considered a success. Friesan Fire is my idea of the winner (blistering work the other day) - he seems really tuned despite the long (by KD standards) time since his last race. Chocolate Candy (lovely looking horse) and Pioneerof The Nile also look a bit special.

Re Quality Road: it was a second quarter crack (different foot I think) that failed to heal in time for them to get the necessary work into him. I'm glad in a way - rushing him would have been very far from ideal. He should be a lovely horse for the second half of the season - maybe he could even make the Belmont.
 
I backed Pioneerof The Nile in early March prior to his penultimate prep (Santa Catalina I think) and he struggled home in that - his price move from 14's/16's a few weeks ago are mainly due to his rivals dropping out. Can't help but think he might end up being a synthetic monster.
 
Draw made with ML prices.. Dunkirk fans get an OK draw, I think he is in the first auxiliary gate so he'll have a little bit more room.

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen Stewart Elliott 30-1
2 Musket Man Derek Ryan Eibar Coa 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty John Velazquez 30-1
4 Advice Todd Pletcher Rene Douglas 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Bill Mott Kent Desormeaux 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Larry Jones Gabriel Saez 5-1
7 Papa Clem Gary Stute Rafael Bejarano 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Bennie Woolley Calvin Borel 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Todd Pletcher Chris DeCarlo 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor Alan Garcia 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer Mike Smith 20-1
12 General Quarters Tom McCarthy Julien Leparoux 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins Joe Talamo 3-1
14 Atomic Rain Kelly Breen Joe Bravo 50-1
15 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert Garrett Gomez 4-1
17 Summer Bird Tim Ice Chris Rosier 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Nick Zito Shaun Bridgmohan 50-1
19 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor Ramon Dominguez 15-1
20 Flying Private D. Wayne Lukas Robby Albarado 50-1
 
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