Kentucky Derby

icebreaker

icebreaker

At the Start
Joined
Jun 12, 2005
Messages
2,957
"While you're sitting back, in your rose-pink Cadillac,
Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day,
I'll be in my basement room, with a needle and a spoon,
And another girl can take my pain away".

(The Rolling Stones -- "Dead Flowers").


Tonight, our time 23:34
This is as open a running of the Derby as I can think of for a few years.
My two against the field will prob be the two Bob Baffert stablemates Dortmund and American Pharoah, although the Mike de Kock Irish-bred Mubtaahij has been showing steady progress at Meydan.
American Pharaoh, although winning the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths was impressive, is stuck with a horrible draw (18), which would be a concern for me.
Dortmund, it is, so. :)

Any views?
 
Ten years ago Giacomo bailed me out of the worst trade ever in spectacular style- a horse I will never forget.
Haven't a clue this year- maybe a small ew bet on the Simon Callaghan horse.
 
LUKE said:
Ten years ago Giacomo bailed me out of the worst trade ever in spectacular style- a horse I will never forget.
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:D

On the other hand, it's kinda regrettable that we cannot trade it nowadays -- now that Betfair doesn't have a license for Churchill Downs anymore.
 
American Pharoah is a freak!! Triple Crown kinda horse...watched him win the Arkansas Derby and have been chipping away backing him since. Going balls deep tonight...a star in the making.
 
Go to the window and collect, Trefflich ! :)

Good gut instinct, Luke, for the E/W.

1) American Pharoah
2) Firing Line
3) Dortmund
 
A truly great race with a great result.
High on my bucket list to get there and sing "My Old Kentucky Home " at full volume.
Highlight of the night was Willoughby's quote " My dishwasher has a better pedigree !"
 
The Triple Crown dream is alive !
American Pharoah wins the second leg -- the Preakness at Pimlico.:)

The awesome beast won in the most appalling conditions imaginable ....................






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LUKE said:
At even money or lower he is an all in lay for the Belmont.
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Based on pedigree he will really struggle over the 1m 4f but he was impressive last night ridden much more aggressively than in the Derby. He won't be ridden like that at Belmont and Frosted (at least) must have a decent chance of reversing Derby form; that being said he has a touch of class and is more of a Triple Crown threat than has been the case for some time
 
trefflich said:
Is this the history angle or more specific to the horse itself?
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The history angle backed up by personal observation over the last 15 years.The 12 furlongs of the Belmont is a savage test for American dirt bred horses,the distance is not one they are usually asked to race over, it's the third Classic in 5 weeks and there will be horses who have been targeted specifically at Belmont or skipped the Preakness to stay fresh.This year there are 5 weeks between the Guineas and Derby imagine if the triple crown was squeezed into 5 weeks and run in a more attritional surface.
 
Espinoza managed not to flog him down the straight this time. A triple crown winner would be nice (and Winstar will be rubbing their hands as he is from Pioneer OftheNile's second crop) but its hard to see. The times for the Preakness and Derby were exceptionally slow so it's hard to see him stay for the Belmont.
 
Time only matters in jail (when you are the winner)
Hard to see for sure but just once it would be nice for all concerned.
The Secretariat movie was on some Sky Movies at the same time as the race and flicking between both gave me goose bumps of what might be.
 
Miesque said:
The times for the Preakness and Derby were exceptionally slow so it's hard to see him stay for the Belmont.
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:blink:


His Kentucky Derby win was half a second faster than the time set last year by California Chrome, and from the worst possible draw. 2:03.02 as against CC's 2:03.66. (I follow this stuff; I'm a sad individual who doesn't get out much).

And I wouldn't ascribe great significance to the slow Preakness winning time; it was after all a mudbath last night. More relevant perhaps is American Pharoah's winning margin -- seven lengths ahead of the rest of the field. That's a fair indicator of his superiority.


Last year I layed California Chrome in the Belmont. This year I won't be repeating the exercise with Pharoah; I think this fellow may prove to be one of the "greats". Will take a braver man than me to lay him in any future race.
 
Pharoah ( who shipped into New York from Kentucky yesterday in great fettle) has drawn stall 5.
Excellent, won't get pinned in on the rail and gives Espinoza plenty of options. From Number 5, Phaoah can dictate pace if necessary or can hang back. Grand draw.

The morning line for the race has been released -- Luke will be a Layer it seems. :)

Nailing colours time -- American Pharoah will win at Belmont on Saturday night to become the first Triple Crown champion in 37 years. It's a certainty !


1. Mubtaahij (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 10-1
2. Tale of Verve (Gary Stevens) 15-1
3. Madefromlucky (Javier Castellano) 12-1
4. Frammento (Mike Smith) 30-1
5. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza) 3-5
6. Frosted (Joel Rosario) 5-1
7. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux) 20-1
8. Materiality (John Velazquez) 6-1
 
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Frosted is a cert ew and can upset the apple cart. Rosario is the best in the west and horse is waiting to nail the Pharoah in the last furlong. As much as i like the Pharoah...I think this will be a step to far
 
trefflich said:
American Pharoah is a freak!! Triple Crown kinda horse...watched him win the Arkansas Derby and have been chipping away backing him since. Going balls deep tonight...a star in the making.
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just over an hour to see if this beast can break a 37 year wait
 
JamesRB said:
just over an hour to see if this beast can break a 37 year wait
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I fear not...if you watch the Kentucky Derby again you will see Frosted and Materiality were ridden too far out of their ground. I would love to see the Pharoah do it...but history says no. Records are there to be broken though!
 
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