Agree.
King George (Ascot)
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Agree.
EC1
On a break
aye
tbh Hamm..this race is so fascinating to analyse..i'm not sure any of us will make much real sense of it for a while
EC1
On a break
and thats exactly the point..something made CB run very slowly in the last 3f..which is why he hasn't run near his form
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,835
Coming back to Hawk Wing, yes I went very high that day and felt 100% justified in so doing.
As the discussion on this forum evolved, so did the theory that the way a race is run can affect every runner bar possibly the winner. I am now of the opinion that it is possible that all bar the winner ran below form. Hawk Wing was nowhere near as far ahead of Lindop on times that day as he should have been and Harbinger was nowhere near as far ahead of the winner of the next race over c&d as he should have been.
It might also explain why Roberto was able to beat Brigadier Gerard at York while the Brigadier was seemingly as far ahead of the usual suspects as his form entitled him to be. I only know one person who reckons Roberto should have been rated above Brigadier Gerard overall.
Dahlia shot clear in her first King George but subsequent analysis, which wasn't in vogue at the time, showed that she was the only one to get the fractions right on the day. she wasn't any less a horse the following year and didn't win by anywhere near as far off a more even pace.
If Moore had chosen Harbinger over Workforce I might have been swayed into a monstrous rating but Moore seems pretty certain that Workforce is the better of the two. What would that make Workforce?
As for the ratings bodies, the BHB is conservative although, as pointed out elsewhere, the closer you get to the top of the scale the closer they are to being accurate. It's why in everyday racing it's easy to spot horses that are 'well in' in handicaps.
Coming back to Hawk Wing, let's not forget that this non-stayer was something like twelve lengths clear of the next horse in his Derby. On his day, he was very good but I accepted long ago that he wasn't the superbeast I thoguht he was after Newbury.
I wonder if we'll conclude soething similar about Humdinger.
As the discussion on this forum evolved, so did the theory that the way a race is run can affect every runner bar possibly the winner. I am now of the opinion that it is possible that all bar the winner ran below form. Hawk Wing was nowhere near as far ahead of Lindop on times that day as he should have been and Harbinger was nowhere near as far ahead of the winner of the next race over c&d as he should have been.
It might also explain why Roberto was able to beat Brigadier Gerard at York while the Brigadier was seemingly as far ahead of the usual suspects as his form entitled him to be. I only know one person who reckons Roberto should have been rated above Brigadier Gerard overall.
Dahlia shot clear in her first King George but subsequent analysis, which wasn't in vogue at the time, showed that she was the only one to get the fractions right on the day. she wasn't any less a horse the following year and didn't win by anywhere near as far off a more even pace.
If Moore had chosen Harbinger over Workforce I might have been swayed into a monstrous rating but Moore seems pretty certain that Workforce is the better of the two. What would that make Workforce?
As for the ratings bodies, the BHB is conservative although, as pointed out elsewhere, the closer you get to the top of the scale the closer they are to being accurate. It's why in everyday racing it's easy to spot horses that are 'well in' in handicaps.
Coming back to Hawk Wing, let's not forget that this non-stayer was something like twelve lengths clear of the next horse in his Derby. On his day, he was very good but I accepted long ago that he wasn't the superbeast I thoguht he was after Newbury.
I wonder if we'll conclude soething similar about Humdinger.
EC1
On a break
i don't really..a horse of his ability should not have slowed like that
EC1
On a break
good comparison - this is such a similar conundrum isn't it?
Narcotic Nora
Apprentice
Alan Lee, interviewed at the Curragh on Irish Oaks day, stated that Ryan Moore claimed that Harbinger would not finish 'in the same parish' as Workforce!!!!
davidjohnson
At the Start
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- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
He was right!
EC1
On a break
does it not look a bit odd that there is a 140+ horse in the stable.. and Moore doesn't even know?
imagine
At the Start
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 685
Would Harbinger be troubled if the ground was to come up soft at Longchamp? He won on good-soft earlier this year but was well behind High Heeled on soft ground (officially) at the back end of last year. He looks like he's improved since then but I'd be a bit concerned if the ground was to come up very soft.
I don't get involved in discussions about ratings but the day that Hawkwing won the Lockinge the forecast front runner was withdrawn at the start and Kinane made a quick decision to take race by the scruff of the neck.How many subsequent winners came from that race.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
People really cannot handle the idea of Harbinger being so good. The question of the day on the RP Site is whether or not he deserves to be the top rated horse in the World - and 53% voted no. Most of them probably without even thinking of an alternative - or, and this actually wouldn't surprise me, maybe thinking of Kauto Star. I'd like to know who's better.
Nail on the head.
If you had the exact same race, but swapped Harbinger and Workforce, few would crab the 140 rating.
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Very good point...
The performance was lamost too good to be true and if its too good etc etc
No one in racing improves them as well as stoute but this is extraordinary really...not impossible i suppose
Also, unlikely that every other horse in the race ran below form, but I dont think Youmzain is the horse he was and Workforce simply didnt look happy at all
I would be confident that Harbinger will be the middle distance horse of the season but do wonder if we will see such visual dominance again
G-G
Senior Jockey
I do not for one moment doubt that Harbinger is a very good horse after Saturday's performance, but there is no way he would have beaten STS over any distance.
EC1
On a break
if i had a jockey riding for me and he was regularly sitting on a 140 horse and didn't know it..i'd be getting rid
yes Hamm but the connections are not green and to have what is being rated as a post war great in the stable and not know it, is abit suprising
Still, the other side of it is that some will never quite believe that a horse that virtually didnt start off in group ones cant be the real thing...which is silly
Whatever happens cant see another horse beating him this year and the prospect taht hes racing again next (take note billionaire fainting chinaman) for connections that arent superich (i think) is vey very good news
Still, the other side of it is that some will never quite believe that a horse that virtually didnt start off in group ones cant be the real thing...which is silly
Whatever happens cant see another horse beating him this year and the prospect taht hes racing again next (take note billionaire fainting chinaman) for connections that arent superich (i think) is vey very good news
EC1
On a break
EC1
On a break
Last year on slower ground:
first 9f/last 3f/ overall time
Conduit - 110.9 / 37.8 / 148.73
The ground speeded up Conduits overall time by 1.6 seconds
therefore his overall time on Good ground would be 150.33
this year
Harbinger 110.6 / 36.2 / 146.78
the ground speeded up Harbinger's time by 3.2 seconds
therefore his overall time on Good ground would be 149.98
If the ground speed is removed from the splits as well ...they would read
Conduit - 112.1 / 38.2 / 150.3
Harbinger - 113.0 / 37.0/ 150.0
so Conduit ran faster for the first 9f than Harbinger did when viewed on a level playing field..hence his last 3f time suffered due to that..as well as being just 0.35 inferior to H
if H is a 140+ horse then Conduit must have been a 136+ horse..anyone think Conduit is that good??..if he is..then STS through him is a 145+ horse
first 9f/last 3f/ overall time
Conduit - 110.9 / 37.8 / 148.73
The ground speeded up Conduits overall time by 1.6 seconds
therefore his overall time on Good ground would be 150.33
this year
Harbinger 110.6 / 36.2 / 146.78
the ground speeded up Harbinger's time by 3.2 seconds
therefore his overall time on Good ground would be 149.98
If the ground speed is removed from the splits as well ...they would read
Conduit - 112.1 / 38.2 / 150.3
Harbinger - 113.0 / 37.0/ 150.0
so Conduit ran faster for the first 9f than Harbinger did when viewed on a level playing field..hence his last 3f time suffered due to that..as well as being just 0.35 inferior to H
if H is a 140+ horse then Conduit must have been a 136+ horse..anyone think Conduit is that good??..if he is..then STS through him is a 145+ horse
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