King George (Ascot)

throwing in CB's plits

Cape Blanco 110.2 / 38.8 / 148.98

the ground speeded them up 3.2 seconds

overall time on Good = 152.18

splits with ground speed adjusted to good

112.6 / 39.4 / 152.18

look how slow CB's splits are compared to Conduit's..39.4 after going slower than Conduit early on!!.....that shows something is wrong with CB's run..he should have bettered Conduits final split as he saved petrol in the first 9f compared to Conduit..yet he runs the last 3 furlongs 1.2 seconds slower.....hardly run near his best has he?
 
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EC1 said:
but the straight course times have nothing to do with the round course ones here..the round course times are faster than the straight on this occasion..how fast have you made the 12f handicap? ..because its highly unlikely that race can be rated much higher than the OHR's on offer with them finishing in a heap
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As there were only two round course races, you have to factor in the straight course at some point (or at least I choose to). The sample size would be too small, the International was truly run and the pars I have applied will be consistent unlike the other straight course races and it gives a good handle on the overall going.
 
The problem with the times is that only two races were run on the round course on Saturday therefore any comparison is going to be very tenuous because the going allowances are not based on strong evidence.

The evidence is arguably further called into question by the difference in opinion of the going of the CoC and the jockeys, and the going stick readings.

The CoC and the going stick readings suggested the middle of the straight was faster but the jockeys showed it clearly wasn't. The round course was supposed to be faster but it's usually much slower, so goodness knows what the true conditions were.
 
Euronymous said:
You rely way too much on times.
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you know if you look at those splits you might just see something really obvious..rather than posting a throwaway line that i'm surprised at


its clear that if you put CB in last years KG he would have been behind Conduit at 3f out..which is very important..because he would still have been a good way behind him at the line as well..this is where splits can really unravel a race...IF CB had been faster to 9f than Conduit it makes it harder to quantify..but as it is ..CB is behind C at 3 out and then loses more ground in the last 3f

this tells you rather a lot about what CB has run to in Saturdays race..in fact it lets you accurately rate Harbiinger

and you haven't even comprehended it..you surprise me
 
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lets make it simple

Conduit would have beaten CB by 1.88 seconds

which is 9.4 lengths

Conduit is what?..a 127 horse when winning the KG

therefore on Saturday CB has run to a mark of approximately 109

which would make Harbinger a form rating of approx 131
 
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Euronymous said:
Um, Golden Sword was only beaten 8L in that race. Kind of ruins your argument.
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no it doesn't ruin it all..in fact its nothing to do with it

if you tried to comprehend what i am laying out..rather than trying to be a clever sod all the time:)..you might see why sectional times are very useful

i've put my case anyway..based on good logic

if you want to believe that H is 140+ horse..then fair play to you..i don't.. and i think i've put enough meat on the bone to show why i don't
 
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I think Euro and others are being a little OTT with the 140 and EC1 is being a little critical at 131, I'd go in between but I'd love to bet he never runs to the same level again.
 
I've never agreed with the 140+ rating and have already posted my thoughts:


I think 135 is way too low and 142 too high - 138 seems about right to me. Cape Blanco wasn't suited to how the race was run and managed to hold on for second because Youmzain is basically past it and the French filly was feeling the ground.
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Sorry, seemed to skim over that. As I say, on my time calculations (not sectionals), I'd have him in at 137.

I do have a hunch it was a freak performance and we won't be seeing him put another similar showing in.
 
Beating Duncan by 3.5L? :confused:

About 127 max for me.

Had a really good Beyer to Timeform rating conversion chart but lost the damn thing.
 
Duncan is a decent horse when he puts it all in, and the form behind has worked out well. The winner went over 130 that day for me.
 
Sans Frontieres beating Redwood and a non-stayer in Tazeez doesn't frank the form for me. Crowded House was beat a similar distance in the Hardwicke and PoW.

Neither does Barshiba beating fillies like Pollys Mark.

He put in a genuine top class performance on Saturday but it's the first time he's got close and I see it is a one off that won't be repeated.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Sorry, seemed to skim over that. As I say, on my time calculations (not sectionals), I'd have him in at 137.

I do have a hunch it was a freak performance and we won't be seeing him put another similar showing in.
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what do you give the 12f 3yo handicap though Stan?..that race doesn't have a massive speed figure...its about par for class..which makes H's speedfigure in the 132 arena
 
Beyer of 87 so Timeform of 94. Found the Beyer to Timeform chart in the end.

I don't feel comfortable by only using the two round course races, the sample size is simply too small to get a realistic handle on the two races which I think is probably why you have him in slightly lower than I do as I've ignored the two freakishly slow straight course races.
 
I can never understand why anyone would rely solely or ignore completely all the different tools we have to go through the form of a race. Basing it on one and ignoring the rest does not make sense to me.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Beyer of 87 so Timeform of 94. Found the Beyer to Timeform chart in the end.

I don't feel comfortable by only using the two round course races, the sample size is simply too small to get a realistic handle on the two races which I think is probably why you have him in slightly lower than I do as I've ignored the two freakishly slow straight course races.
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thats where Pru's finishing speed formula comes in though Stan..it helps a lot when you only have two races..past races are a big help to.:)
 
I just find sectional timing inaccurate without official times EC, I've tried it myself and you could be missing many tenths of seconds simply by using a stopwatch at different markers on a video. It's too hit and miss for my money.

Gal, can see your point but I'd rather specialise in one technique and know how to apply said technique rather than dip in and out of others.
 
Galileo said:
I can never understand why anyone would rely solely or ignore completely all the different tools we have to go through the form of a race. Basing it on one and ignoring the rest does not make sense to me.
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me neither ..past race sectionals can really give you a good idea of whats happened in a race..but its like you are use black magic or summat:)

saturdays race is a classic example of a race that cannot be solved with just A beating B by so far methodology..particularly when you don't know the real merit of B on the day..unless you come at another angle.

i'm going with 131 for Harbinger anyway..I'll bet Timeform have dropped him a good bit by end of season..lol..famous last words:p
 
Gamla Stan said:
I just find sectional timing inaccurate without official times EC, I've tried it myself and you could be missing many tenths of seconds simply by using a stopwatch at different markers on a video. It's too hit and miss for my money.

Gal, can see your point but I'd rather specialise in one technique and know how to apply said technique rather than dip in and out of others.
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a bit of practice goes a long way Stan with the old stop watch

its too important to ignore imo..way too important
 
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If it's an angle you're confident you have nailed then it will pay dividends, sectional timing is very very useful.

I just don't know how any human can feel confident about hitting a stopwatch at the exact same marker every time by watching a video.
 
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