King George Chase

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Pricewise has gone for Tamarinbleu. Not for me....any value to be spotted? If Noland wins well on Sunday he could be much shorter as you would expect him to get the King George 3 miles well.
 
16's Our Vic with Sportingbet (much shorter elsewhere) is probably the value. If Kauto isn't at his best there'll be far more behind OV than in front, he's run well in the race before and short of running it over 2m 5f at Cheltenham it's the best chance he'll have all season.
 
My take on Tamarinbleu is that he got everything he wanted at Haydock and still couldn't win, probably failing to stay.
 
I will be investing heavily in Our Vic each way. As a proven 170+ chaser, I struggle to think of 3 who will finish in front of him, let alone 1 (Kauto appears 'wrong' to me, and I'll not be surprised if he doesn't turn up).
 
rorydelargy said:
I love the reinvention of Kauto Star as a right handed specialist by the current experts. He didn't need these provisos a year ago did he?
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Rory its simple facts and math just have a look at the stats they dont lie.

Over a period of time these also come more clear for obvious reasons.

:blink::blink::blink:
 
His last two runs - one right-handed and one left-handed - have both been a stone or more outside his best. Yes, he wasn't tested at Down Royal and didn't have to run to anything like his best there, but in the light of Haydock you have to accept that Down Royal didn't prove anything positive either. He's lost three of his last 4 races and his ratings plotted over time show a clear trend suggesting he's on the downgrade. I love him and hope he comes back to his best but I'm doubtful.
 
One other point about the left/right thing.

Before this year's Gold Cup, Kauto's left/right record was:

Left: 1F111121
Right: 2211111

Given that the '2' going left-handed was when he came out significantly best-at-the-weights when going down to Monet's Garden in the Old Roan last year, I'd say those records are pretty similar.

Since then, he's gone:

Left: 22U
Right: 1

So suddenly he appears as if he may be better going right-handed.

Question is: if he'd had the same results recently, but the losses happened to occur on right-handed tracks and the win on a left-handed track, would we be claiming that he's better going left-handed?

Without a compelling reason to suggest why he might be better going right-handed, and without wishing to sound like a bad courtroom drama, the evidence is purely circumstantial.
 
I'm not sure - I'd have thought cards will be played close to the chest for a while yet anyhow! Last I heard the horse was well though.

I find it strange that this horse seems to be forgotten about, I've read nothing about him in the press or elsewhere when I think he's a very exciting prospect.
 
Shadow Leader said:
I'm not sure - I'd have thought cards will be played close to the chest for a while yet anyhow! Last I heard the horse was well though.

I find it strange that this horse seems to be forgotten about, I've read nothing about him in the press or elsewhere when I think he's a very exciting prospect.
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Not forgotten about by everyone, SL, though I personally couldn't bring myself to back him. He's rising 10yo, and isn't guaranteed to stay 3m anyway.

I don't have any strong opinions on the race, other than I hope Kauto Star wins, but I do think whoever is offering 210 about Alberta's Run is taking a bit of a chance. Has AR been ruled out of the race??
 
Without a compelling reason to suggest why he might be better going right-handed
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Most horses apparently have a preference one way or the other...albleit sometimes very slight

Some of those "left handed" wins have been less than impressive. Newbury springs to mind. Kempton Ascot and Sandown have been his amongst his finest moments. For whatever reason, he seems to just simply visually travel better at kempton compared with elsewhere

i think he will bounce back at Kempton. The raw ability of this horse is still extraordinary
 
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For whatever reason, he seems to just simply visually travel better at kempton compared with elsewhere
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Disagree. Visually, he was supreme there last Christmas. The year before, however, he blundered badly with his jumping and was not as visually impressive as he had been in his previous three races that season (Sandown, Haydock and Aintree).

If we're talking about purely visual impressions, for me his best have been: Aintree (first Old Roan), Haydock (first Betfair), Sandown (second Tingle Creek), Kempton (second King George), Ascot (First Commercial) and Down Royal.

So two left-handed and four-right handed, including an absolute gimme at Down Royal.

Not exactly overwhelming evidence, unless the argument is that he's had an undetected/undisclosed problem at some stage between his first Betfair and his first Gold Cup that has led to him preferring going right-handed since. The fact that he actually drifted left when dotting up in the King George last year would suggest that this is unlikely.
 
Kempton is a course that rewards quick jumping rather than places like Cheltenham where the emphasis is on econmical, safe jumping. Horses like One Man, Desert Orchid and Kicking king could excel there because they could mix it in terms of jumping speed with specialist 2 milers yet had the stamina for 3. Kauto Star is\was very much in this category.
 
Grasshopper said:
Not forgotten about by everyone, SL, though I personally couldn't bring myself to back him. He's rising 10yo, and isn't guaranteed to stay 3m anyway.

I don't have any strong opinions on the race, other than I hope Kauto Star wins, but I do think whoever is offering 210 about Alberta's Run is taking a bit of a chance. Has AR been ruled out of the race??
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Not as yet Grassy - Hemmings said yesterday that all options are open for his runners bar Turpin Green who won´t run.
 
If we're talking about purely visual impressions, for me his best have been: Aintree (first Old Roan), Haydock (first Betfair), Sandown (second Tingle Creek), Kempton (second King George), Ascot (First Commercial) and Down Royal.
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not sure i would bother with Down Royal in this. I suppose another argument against the left handed theory is that at Newbury and Haydock they are spending a lot of the race on the straight
 
To put the argument to rest Last mistake going right handed. Kempton 2006.
Left handed has made at least one mistake in every race.

There is no question or doubt that he is far superior going right handed just simply watch every race since Kempton 2006 right and left handed then if you still dont agree please enlighten me with your reasons why you disagree.
 
There is no question or doubt that he is far superior going right handed just simply watch every race since Kempton 2006 right and left handed then if you still dont agree please enlighten me with your reasons why you disagree.
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I have. You can read my reasons in my earlier posts :)
 
Yeah just read it again and it still make no sense to me???

How can you explain no mistake over a fence for approx 1000 days going right handed but numerous mistakes going left handed? Forget about his results going left handed his class has got him out of sticky situations.

Also it is clear that 3 miles is his optimum trip.

Kauto will win the King George, many people have been against this horse throughout his career and I can only assume done there money laying or backing against him. Something by the sounds of things that many people will be doing again. Not me I will be collecting again. Thanks very much Kauto.
 
many people have been against this horse throughout his career
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I think this is simply untrue. It doesn't often happen, but nobody doubts that Kauto Star has been exceptional. The doubts are not about how good he was but about how good he might still be.
 
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