King George VI Chase 2014

A lot of discussion about Kempton> The easy 3 miles that a good 2m.4f horse will get no problem bla bla bla.

It may well apply to decent horses running against boats but the history of the King George V Chase has shown it time after time it to be a total myth.

Year after year good staying types that get 3 miles finish, as does the odd 20f horse, exhausted and legless.
2013 Long Run aGold Cup winner was backpedaling when falling
2012 Cue Card, Grand Cruz and Riverside Theatre were among those left trailing.
2011 Somersby tried his hand in 2011...turning for home he was going better than anything but the trip took it's toll and the tanks emptied completely
2010 Long Run won by a massive 12 lengths with the rest looking like they had just done 5 miles at Aintree
2009 Probably Kauto Star's best ever performance with a field of decent stayers barely able to put one leg in front of the other

Sure Kempton isn't Cheltenham but 3 miles is 3 miles and what the course doesn't offer in 3 miles plus stiffness it more than makes up for in 3 miles plus pace/speed and at the end of the day if you don't stay 3 miles round Carlisle Kelso or wherever you won't be staying 3 miles round Kempton in a King George
 
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Without checking Fist , I'd say the majority of those - if not all - were run on fairly testing ground.

Different this year so Menorah at the prices for me. Took 12s straight after haydock and natural pessimsm has seen me have savers on Conti but still think the Hobbs horse is the only real value.
 
harry said:
seconded EC
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Thirded. I probably won't be reading it beyond the third page because it bores me but that's no reason not to start one. And I've said before - just stick Reet on your ignore list if he bothers you - I have and it's bliss not reading his pish.
 
EC1 said:
What I have read though through the years is..if you stay 2.5 miles away from Kempton at a stiffer track..then the 3 miles at kempton is similar

that is incorrect imo...you do need to stay 3 miles to win a KG..its not some a bit stiffer 2.5m race..its a solid 3 mile test
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I agree 100%.


EC1 said:
but..lets say you have a 2.5 miler in it..and his two main staying opponents ruin their efforts..then he wins by default yes...so you get a 2.5 miler winning it..and everyone says..oh yes i remember the 2.5 miler winning it..but then i forgot..the stayers that day didn't put their best in.
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And the record books show that Red Marauder, a 2.5 miler, won the National in heavy. You either need to have seen the race or know the form to realise that he was the first home - eventually - of two poor exhausted beasts in a race that should never have taken place. Yet it will still give lie to the statement that you need to stay to win.

I'm firmly of the opinion that in a true-run King George a 2.5-miler will be gasping from the home turn.
 
im not sure about that. he went off like the clappers in his early days. a horse that cannot keep up with the pace on the final circuit, especially before final bend, will fall away quickly at kempton. seen it enough times
 
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clivex said:
im not sure about that. he went off like the clappers in his early days. a horse that cannot keep up with the pace on the final circuit, especially before final bend, will fall away quickly at kempton. seen it enough times
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He also won a GC in a course record time, beating Kauto and Denman. He was no slow boat, just because he won two KGs on soft ground.
 
Long Run had a good combination of speed and stamina but the key word/s is not pace nor is it speed and it's definitely not time.

If it was the latter then the 122 handicapper who holds the course record would ave beaten both Arkle and Kauto Star in their King George's

I reckon take a natural 2 miler like Sire De Grugy, let him do his own thing and he'll record a time over 3 miles that would win many a 3 mile chase

But inject an increase in pace at point A and point C for 50yds or 100yds and the same horse will fall in a heap and finish exhausted.

How else can we explain horses doing faster times than the likes of Kauto Star yet put the same horse in a race with Kauto and he'll finish a fence behind exhausted.

The only possible explanation is that some horses fold in a heap when trying to match these sudden injections of pace that may only last for a few seconds in a race no matter if the pace is strong or just an average one.
You see it happening to on stayers and non stayer alike for no apparent reason....I reckon if you could break a race into times for every 50 yds you would find that sudden injections of pace occur several times during a race that wouldn't necessarily show up doing 4 section timing or the like.



Harping back to Somersby and how well he was going and in a matter of strides folded.....I doubt if he had not been subjected to that sudden injection of pace on the home turn that he would have been beaten so far or finished so tired.

The Champion Hurdle is a classic example of how short sudden injections of pace make a massive difference to a race result. Novices at the festival have won in times that can be compared favourably to times of the Champion Hurdle but put that same Novice in the Champion Hurdle and you can bet he wouldn't be sited.

So going off like the clappers and setting a strong pace or setting a steady pace in my book is not as important ashaving the ability to cope with short sudden injections of pace and keeping yourself together (if you are a horse). Combine that inability with a lack of stamina and as far as the King George goes your f***** for want of a better word
 
Maybe so haven't checked myself Wilson but Kauto Star's times didn't make much difference. One year he was a full minute faster than another year but those who finished behind were still legless in both.

I'd love to see Menorah win he has the ability as this is no classic but he might just decide to try and walk through a fence and that is a worry....I'll be having my saver on him just in case....but Conti does look a bit of a steering job unless Cue Card bounces back,,,have my doubts as Tizzard isn't clever enough to have laid him out for this.....he thinks the horse is a machine and wants to win everything...I fear the worst for Cue Card I reckon he has lost his way and we have seen the best of him...love to be proved wrong though
 
Lots of rain heading towards Kempton by 2ish. Could get into the ground like last year and change the going description - SC looking the most likely to benefit?
 
Tanlic said:
How else can we explain horses doing faster times than the likes of Kauto Star yet put the same horse in a race with Kauto and he'll finish a fence behind exhausted.
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Absolutely nail on head, Fist.
Despite the seeming acceptance to the contrary on here, horses aren't wind-up train sets that run on rails, but have to run and jump against other horses. and it's the quality of that opposition that's the crucial factor in most truly run races, not how fast they go from A to B.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Lots of rain heading towards Kempton by 2ish. Could get into the ground like last year and change the going description - SC looking the most likely to benefit?
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It is due after racing. I checked because I will probably have to take the car now!
 
reet hard said:
Absolutely nail on head, Fist.
Despite the seeming acceptance to the contrary on here, horses aren't wind-up train sets that run on rails, but have to run and jump against other horses. and it's the quality of that opposition that's the crucial factor in most truly run races, not how fast they go from A to B.
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Yes I have to agree with this too.
 
fonz said:
11/2??
If he goes 6s I'm going in again
He will trading at evens when he jumps to the front in the straight
Personally I reckon he see it out stoutly but he will be a massive Arb if that's your thing and if you reckon hes a doubtful stayer.
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champagne plodder certainly has gone sixes. And at more than one place too. It's the old trouble with these drifts isn't it? Price may look good (not to me in this instance) but you also have to ask why?
 
If it was the latter then the 122 handicapper who holds the course record would ave beaten both Arkle and Kauto Star in their King George's

that statement is just complete utter nonsense i'm afraid..and shows a complete..and i mean total.. lack of knowledge of the relationship between time and going conditions..but the fact that generally punters can't see the error in statements like that gives me hope that pure ignorance will always aid the person who is capable of applying themselves at this game..the fact no one on here even pulls people up from spouting such absolute sh1te like this amazes me tbh.,,but ultimately pleases me as it shows that in the main..punters don't understand times..hence being impressed when horses break course records. People who are so ignorant of time element are best to ignore it altogether imo than come out with tripe like that tbh. I personally tend to stick to what i know..then what i don't understand..i tend not to pass comment on it rather than make mesen look a proper tit.

but...when i see people agree with that sort of comment on here..it warms my heart to know so many can see so little that's right in front of their noses..it reminds me off betting shop 1975....punters it appears haven't learned much in this country through the years

long may it continue
 
EC1 said:
If it was the latter then the 122 handicapper who holds the course record would ave beaten both Arkle and Kauto Star in their King George's

that statement is just complete utter nonsense i'm afraid..and shows a complete..and i mean total.. lack of knowledge of the relationship between time and going conditions..but the fact that generally punters can't see the error in statements like that gives me hope that pure ignorance will always aid the person who is capable of applying themselves at this game..the fact no one on here even pulls people up from spouting such absolute sh1te like this amazes me tbh.,,but ultimately pleases me as it shows that in the main..punters don't understand times..hence being impressed when horses break course records. People who are so ignorant of time element are best to ignore it altogether imo than come out with tripe like that tbh. I personally tend to stick to what i know..then what i don't understand..i tend not to pass comment on it rather than make mesen look a proper tit.

That's it EC1, don't pussyfoot around, tell them like it is!:lol:

but...when i see people agree with that sort of comment on here..it warms my heart to know so many can see so little that's right in front of their noses..it reminds me off betting shop 1975....punters it appears haven't learned much in this country through the years

long may it continue
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clivex said:
champagne plodder certainly has gone sixes. And at more than one place too. It's the old trouble with these drifts isn't it? Price may look good (not to me in this instance) but you also have to ask why?
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Seems to have been led all along by Wm Hill, so either their odds compiler knows something we don't, or he's got another job lined up
and thought f*** it.:)
 
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JamesRB said:
7/2 with a few bookies now. very solid bet.
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Yes but don't expect soft ground. I'm tempted but 7/1 cue card makes more sense to me. I'm not always sure to make of tizzard but they are clearly very positive. I can't have cf at all but was very impressed with al ferof at ascot. He just bounced round but still a feeling that he's best at that sort of distance. Menorah has out in three really good races on the trot now. Still worried he will clout one but way the stable has been going, you can't rule him out at all.
 
clivex said:
Yes but don't expect soft ground. I'm tempted but 7/1 cue card makes more sense to me. I'm not always sure to make of tizzard but they are clearly very positive. I can't have cf at all but was very impressed with al ferof at ascot. He just bounced round but still a feeling that he's best at that sort of distance. Menorah has out in three really good races on the trot now. Still worried he will clout one but way the stable has been going, you can't rule him out at all.
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menorah e/w was the alternative i considered but gone for conti. just has that reliability factor the former lacks but if he runs well menorah is a huge danger.
 
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