King George VI Chase 2014

i can prove its not easy to stay..simple to show...but boring to most here..so waste of time

anyone that thinks its a speed test..get piled into the 2.5 milers is what i say..its all about opinion this game
 
Would agree with that frankel but I don't think you need to get much more. It's spot on for a top 3 mile chaser and unlike the gc it's pretty free of freakish results and finishes.
 
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just looking at Edroden Bleu's race Clive...a couple of things might have made that race a little different..firstly First Gold's bad mistake 3 out completely knocked the stuffing out of him..without that..he may have won..and the fav Jair Du Cochet was pulled up after a glaring error

without those two instances we could have had..a 3 miler win it...its a bit like if SC had fell at the last and CC had won...would that have made CC a true stayer at 3 miles?

i'll run the splits for EB's race and see how it pans out anyway
 
Cue Card was a bit puzzling in last year's race though imo. Clearly Conti stayed on passed him. He didn't however runaway from him as much as you would have thought. Cue Card did appear to hold the gap in the closing stages. Just gives me a glimmer of hope he may last home on better ground. Wishfull thinking maybe.
 
It's basically all about pace - there's nothing difficult to understand here

Under normal circumstances Kempton isn't a punishing 3 miles. These aren't normal circumstances though. It's a galloping track with some of the best chasers in the business. It's inevitable that they'll use every bit of those 3 miles with high stakes involved. Cue Card if he retains his ability, can just about get this trip I reckon, but he's right on the edge of his limit. He's a candidate to win or collapse. As such I'd consider him a win only bet at the price. I wouldn't put him in tricast though. Sadly my own reading of the 1-2-3 is the same as the market (and that rarely happens anyway)

Perhaps I might go

Silvi - Ferof - Fever

and a Nicholls 1-2 which means back Benvolio for Chepstow before his price collapses
 
Warbler said:
It's basically all about pace - there's nothing difficult to understand here

Under normal circumstances Kempton isn't a punishing 3 miles. These aren't normal circumstances though.
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and thats what the split times tell you..spot on

people just look at the track..think..oh its flat..so its easy to get..yes it may well be..in an ordinary race..like you say..this isn't an ordinary race...and the injection of pace 6 or 7 out wipes out the non stayers..in this race...thats my initial view looking at the last 5 KG's..even with differing pace scenarios with those 5 KG's..that part of the race is always run above even pace...its a killer race pace wise
 
Frankel said:
Cue Card was a bit puzzling in last year's race though imo. Clearly Conti stayed on passed him. He didn't however runaway from him as much as you would have thought. Cue Card did appear to hold the gap in the closing stages. Just gives me a glimmer of hope he may last home on better ground. Wishfull thinking maybe.
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I'm open minded to the idea that this is where he picked his injury up, or did something that hurt him causing him to jolt and slow before regathering himself a bit. If that is the case - (and its a big if) then he would have won, and any comments about not staying would be confined to speculation. He does represent the proven class I reckon, and if he can replicate last years run on this years ground without that stalling, then he looks set to win. Champagne Fever would be his biggest threat as the unknown element. I'm just not totally convinced that he's getting on that well with Daryl Jacob though, nor is he the same horse. Tizzard said he blew heavily at Haydock suggesting that he'd got the prep wrong, maybe? He also made about 4 errors down the back meeting fences on the wrong stride and fiddling them. I think they'd be within their rights to offer the ride to AP
 
Warbler said:
I'm open minded to the idea that this is where he picked his injury up, or did something that hurt him causing him to jolt and slow before regathering himself a bit. If that is the case - (and its a big if) then he would have won, and any comments about not staying would be confined to speculation. He does represent the proven class I reckon, and if he can replicate last years run on this years ground without that stalling, then he looks set to win. Champagne Fever would be his biggest threat as the unknown element. I'm just not totally convinced that he's getting on that well with Daryl Jacob though, nor is he the same horse. Tizzard said he blew heavily at Haydock suggesting that he'd got the prep wrong, maybe? He also made about 4 errors down the back meeting fences on the wrong stride and fiddling them. I think they'd be within their rights to offer the ride to AP
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Problem for me is there are just too many ifs. Reluctantly will be looking elsewhere. Though CF is not for me.
 
John Francome has been saying for decades that the King George takes a bit of getting.

Looks like the RP offices have had a very big word for Cue Card.
 
Put a dozen good horses in a 3m chase; let them walk the first half and compete for the 2nd, and they'd still be slowing down in the closing stages.
The current 3m Chase record at Kempton was set by a 122 rated handicapper; I've said it before, and I'll keep on saying it - you cannot judge a 3m race purely on the stopwatch.
 
The more I think about this race, the more I'm thinking it comes down to one horse - Conti. CF is the unknown and could be a world beater but does have to improve on what he's shown so far. Love CC but last year showed he doesn't really stay. Menorah is a hound, Dynaste has never convinced me and the rest have a few lbs to find.

I'm lining up a decent each way bet at 5/2, as unless he falls I can't see him out of the three, and he really should win.


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The point about One Man is a bit of a red herring too. He got 3m well enough, he just didn't get the Gold Cup trip. Just because a horse wins at 2m doesn't mean he can't stay 3m. Look at KS. Some horses are abnormally versatile. The fact he won at Kempton doesn't disprove the point that you need to stay well.


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Florida Pearl is another one who won a Kign George but never looked like troubling them in a Gold Cup
 
reet hard said:
Put a dozen good horses in a 3m chase; let them walk the first half and compete for the 2nd, and they'd still be slowing down in the closing stages.
The current 3m Chase record at Kempton was set by a 122 rated handicapper; I've said it before, and I'll keep on saying it - you cannot judge a 3m race purely on the stopwatch.
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its the degree of slow down though that...its very marked in the KG to say its a flat track

I don't understand what the chase record being set by a 122 horse is relevant to. Everyone should know that course records have nothing to do with just the class of horse running. A course record is down to the conditions on the day and the class of horse that happens to be running on that day. As most top class races take place at Kempton when the ground isn't suitable to make a record its highly unlikely it will be set by a higher rated horse. If a course had 160 horses running in every race when the ground is fast, then a 160 horse would hold the record. If a course only has a few races with 160 horses in..or even no 160 horses in..when the ground is fast..then its obvious a lower rated horse who actually takes part on the day when its quick ground..will hold the record. Also..there might only be a handful of days a year at any course when its possible to set a record. So the chances of all course records being held by the best horses that run at that track is slim.

the ignorance amongst punters about course records defies belief..just think about things just a little laterally..and its easy to understand really

we get the message Reet..you don't seem to understand split times or times generally by the looks just of your post above..so just ignore them..there is lots on here i don't comment on..but just keeping posting same old same old..ooh its b0ll0x comments just gets boring

don't worry..i will never post split times any more or start any threads looking at how useful they can be...which i did think about doing...because i get sick and tired of reading your comments..mostly which are based on ignorance of subject..you never add anything..just demean..but with little apparent knowledge about the subject

i'll tell you this though..some people might actually be interested...then again..maybe its really boring and its me out of step..don't really know or care tbh

its no skin off my nose..people probably love reading threads on ante post selections...trainer comments..and one line updates on where X horse might run..if thats what they want from a board..fair enough...we are all different aren't we?
 
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Warbler said:
Florida Pearl is another one who won a Kign George but never looked like troubling them in a Gold Cup
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Yes. As ever people are missing the point. One man and Fp pretty well proved you have to get three miles but you don't have to be a horse that gets much more.
 
clivex said:
Yes. As ever people are missing the point. One man and Fp pretty well proved you have to get three miles but you don't have to be a horse that gets much more.
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i've not seen anyone on here say you do have to stay further.

What I have read though through the years is..if you stay 2.5 miles away from Kempton at a stiffer track..then the 3 miles at kempton is similar

that is incorrect imo...you do need to stay 3 miles to win a KG..its not some a bit stiffer 2.5m race..its a solid 3 mile test

but..lets say you have a 2.5 miler in it..and his two main staying opponents ruin their efforts..then he wins by default yes...so you get a 2.5 miler winning it..and everyone says..oh yes i remember the 2.5 miler winning it..but then i forgot..the stayers that day didn't put their best in.

Edroden winning it convinced lots of folk a 2.5 miler can win it..but they didn't look at why he won it. I'm not knocking him here..just stating that on the day...he jumped like an absolute stag..his main staying oppos didn't..a default win...but earned by jumping well..nothing to do with staying the trip fully.
 
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EC
The Kempton course record is germane to this discussion, in that it was a very fast time set by a modest horse (American Spin), purely because he was never harried or challenged by any other horse in the race and, had he been - at any stage of the race - it's almost certain he wouldn't have achieved the time he did.
The obvious inference from that is that horse racing isn't just about speed from A to B, but involves running and jumping against horses of similar merit, and the concomitant changes of pace that requires (far too many to hang one's hat on 3f sectionals, btw).
I don't have problems with sectionals per se, but I do recognise there is more to pace than just speed, and well enough not to make sweeping statements that everyone else's view is based on pure ignorance. As someone once said ''the difference between a wise man and a fool is the wise man is aware of his ignorance''. Think on that before you post your next tirade, eh?
 
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reet hard said:
EC
The Kempton course record is germane to this discussion, in that it was a very fast time set by a modest horse (American Spin), purely because he was never harried or challenged by any other horse in the race and, had he been - at any stage of the race - it's almost certain he wouldn't have achieved the time he did.
The obvious inference from that is that horse racing isn't just about speed from A to B, but involves running and jumping against horses of similar merit, and the concomitant changes of pace that requires (far too many to hang one's hat on 3f sectionals, btw).
I don't have problems with sectionals per se, but I do recognise there is more to pace than just speed, and well enough not to make sweeping statements that everyone else's view is based on pure ignorance. As someone once said ''the difference between a wise man and a fool is the wise man is aware of his ignorance''. Think on that before you post your next tirade, eh?
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replies are replies Reet..they aren't tirades..they are annoyed postings obviously as anyone here would be annoyed with some of the stuff you post to belittle..only the other day you post a sneering comment about lengths..and you couldn't even take one number away from another..but never admitted it..just let the sneer stand..thats why you get the responses you get from me..you get in kind what you post.

so you think 3f sectionals tell you nothing?..and yet on the flat you believe 2f ones do..as i've seen you happy to quote sectionals re the flat..that someone else compiles.... that doesn't make sense..if you take notice of one..then its a nonsense to ignore the other..or does it depend on who times them?

there is more to pace than just speed..strange one that..if it makes you happy then keep quoting such then carry on with it..really useful i found that..thanks

never forget..times only important in jail..another good one that

that quote you put up..i'd read it to yourself..and think about yourself tbh

you are on ignore from now on..so snipe away chap..i personally won't be reading it
 
It's Xmas day, stop acting like babies and grow up. Leave it there and back to discussion of the race.
 
tell the one that causes the problems Hamm...i'm not having that....all i do is post up details of work i do...thats my time taken..i didn't need to spend the time sharing it..and won't in future..too much hassle... all he does is post up negatively about something he clearly struggles with..he can't even take one number away from another ffs.

no more from me on this about it..but point your finger at the correct person please

i'll tell you what..people like him are limiting this forum greatly
 
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I fancy Cue Card. If he doesn't perform well this time, then maybe he's lost it. They say they will hold him up this time in which case if he does pull I hope jockey lets him bowl along, he had a breathing op' and the ground will be right for him this time.
 
EC1 said:
i've not seen anyone on here say you do have to stay further.

What I have read though through the years is..if you stay 2.5 miles away from Kempton at a stiffer track..then the 3 miles at kempton is similar

that is incorrect imo...you do need to stay 3 miles to win a KG..its not some a bit stiffer 2.5m race..its a solid 3 mile test

but..lets say you have a 2.5 miler in it..and his two main staying opponents ruin their efforts..then he wins by default yes...so you get a 2.5 miler winning it..and everyone says..oh yes i remember the 2.5 miler winning it..but then i forgot..the stayers that day didn't put their best in.

Edroden winning it convinced lots of folk a 2.5 miler can win it..but they didn't look at why he won it. I'm not knocking him here..just stating that on the day...he jumped like an absolute stag..his main staying oppos didn't..a default win...but earned by jumping well..nothing to do with staying the trip fully.
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The point is that horses that are at their very best at just less than 3m will win the race. You don't are to knock half a mile off. One mans perfect distance was probably around 2m 6f

No one is really learning anything new here. KGv has always been a race for a classy type that will stay but can travel with real speed and jump impeccably.

Past record has shown that hasn't it?

Cf is 11/2 now.
 
11/2??
If he goes 6s I'm going in again
He will trading at evens when he jumps to the front in the straight
Personally I reckon he see it out stoutly but he will be a massive Arb if that's your thing and if you reckon hes a doubtful stayer.
 
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