King George VI Chase 2014

Years ago when they stopped the practice of playing local football derbies on Boxing Day I started taking the father in law to Kempton for the Christmas meeting. Not a horses man, he had once been an avid backer of losing greyhounds, he was particularly taken by the front running style of a grey horse that set off like the wind and didn't stop. When I asked him the following year did he want to go again his reply was "is that grey horse running? Yes, well I'm up for it." We went for several years on that basis, simply because he wanted to see this horse go for it. The first time I answered no he decided not to go again.

You all know the name of that horse and understand how he could create such an impression on a non-believer. I've seen plenty of horses that I would consider better horses but he certainly set the pulse racing. I guess I'm sort of hoping to see Champagne Fever do the same.
 
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EC1 said:
the supreme is not very similar to the KG though

its 1 mile further
He's won a 3m point, and his sibling won over 3m 3f and ran in the 4miler at the festival.
its on a totally different track
He's won Rt Handed at Galway and Punchestown, and on a flat, sharp track (Cork).
it has big fences not hurdles
He's had 5 outings over some of the stiffest fences around and clouted just 1 of them, on only his second try.
its the other way round
As above
not seeing how that is a measure of a KG winner tbh
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CC simply won't stay, g/s wouldn't provide nearly enough of a test for SC, and while AF may be back to his best, that best's never been good enough.
Sit back and enjoy, this won't just be a horse race, it'll be a bloody Coronation.
 
It's getting boring again. Haydock supposedly just under 3m 1f good to soft. Running on. Yeah abolsutely no chance of staying 3m at Kempton on good.

I agree with edgy that the right handed thing might be an issue though.
 
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Why won't it be soft enough for SC, he's got plenty of form on decent ground, or are people conveniently forgetting his 2 wins at Aintree?
 
Au contraire, Tiggers - his scraping home from doubtful stayer Dynaste, and his defeat in the same race the previous season, both tend to highlight his shortcomings over a sharp 3m; without the ground to help him.
 
reet hard said:
Au contraire, Tiggers - his scraping home from doubtful stayer Dynaste, and his defeat in the same race the previous season, both tend to highlight his shortcomings over a sharp 3m; without the ground to help him.
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that form wouldn't worry me. at the end of a long season, weeks after a gold cup, not many run to form. it's more to his credit that he won the bowl last season than anything.
 
Al Ferof has hardly gotten a mention here.
His profile is similar to CC and CF with Champion Bumper and Supreme hurdle background.
Ulcers were blamed for last season's poor performances.
If these are behind him he has to go close also.
Ground will be near perfect so quids in for a cracker; may the best horse win.
 
Al Ferof looked tremendous on his comeback but he's been coming up short for a few years so I can't have him.

PS - Does anyone know why the Kauto Star chase is just down as a class 1 race on the RP? It doesn't say what grade it is? Is it still a grade 1?
 
Too many question marks about most of these to back anything with confidence. I might do Menorah each way as an interest bet. Only got to find a couple of lengths with SC and likely to give his running.
 
I think when you've got a fairly tight short-list you should seriously be considering using various forecasts rather than necessarily laying into a win single

To my way of thinking you've got one proven that heads the market, and a host of might be's behind him. All of those might be's on their given day are faster and classier but will they see the trip out? Normally in a situation like you'd expect one of them to even if all the others fail

I don't completely accept the Cue Card doesn't stay 3 miles argument. He came second last year by 3.5L's. If he didn't stay he wouldn't be able to do that. Put simply, you don't come second in a King George by accident (very often). However, I do believe that 3 miles is right on the outher limit of his range and he needs everything from pace and ground to fall for him. A year later he should theoretically be a bit stronger now, but has he come back from the injury? I don't know. I'm still possibly of th eopinion that he picked that injury between the last two fences last year when he notably slows and then trudges on again. If that's right, then he would have won and you'd all be talking about him very differently

At Haydock it was his jumping that went to pieces down the back. I do wonder if Daryl Jacob has a hand in this? I tend to see Cue Card as a more likely winner than a placer I think. In other words, he could come back to inform and impose his class on the race, or he could put in a clunker

Having said all that, you suspect the winner of this race is going to be the horse that is strongest going into the last fence, jumps it cleanest, and gets away from it the quickest. It doesn't take much to think that this is most likely to be Silvi, and outside of falling it's difficult to see how isn't going to be in the first three - can we find the other two? I think Champagne Fever should be on the paddock, and if pushed I'll go for Al Ferof
 
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I'm not sure about Al Ferof's jumping. Looking for a big priced horse to back ew. They must be cursing about Captain Chris being injured; I thought the owner had said they were hoping to get him back for the race. My favourite day of the year, Boxing Day, although it was more fun when I was less health conscious and spent the day drinking and smoking [when staying with the family I was always banished to an upstairs room with a telly, a bottle of something and some Old Holborne rollies].
 
A lot to like about Menorah's run in the Betfair. Expect him to run a big race on better ground and a furlong less (assuming the Betfair was over the advertised distance)
 
well..i've been looking at sectionals for the last 5 KG's..which are easier to look at than cheltenham as you don't even need pars as the course is flat and even pace can be easily seen in good old MPH..one thing that stands out..is even when they go even pace first circuit..there is an injection of pace before they turn in that makes sure you do need to stay..the idea that the KG isn't a test is completely false..completely..and if they run faster than even pace first circuit any doubtful stayers will be done when they turn in..race over at that point..not 2 out..when they turn in

so whatever you back..i'll guarantee it needs to stay 3 miles very well..every finish of the KG i've looked at results in horses slowing quite a lot from 2 out in real terms..basically it gets to the bottom of a horse..and if there is anything lacking stamina wise..it will be revealed from 2 out..which is what happened to CC last year

if the ground is a lot better..and they don't go faster than even early..he may just last..but thats a big if isn't it?...because the last few fences before they turn in looks a pace hot spot..which empties horses even when not going above even early

When someone suggests this doesn't test stamina..they are completely wrong
 
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But the problem is that edredron bleu won it and one man and Florida pearl were arguably not out and out stayers at all. At the end of the day it's a very flat track on usually pretty good ground. That's never going to change but how the race is run is still a variable which we cannot be sure about.
 
i'm not saying you need to be an out and out stayer..although obviously on slow ground it helps..but you have picked just two very exceptional animals in 60 years there..how many horses are there like that?..oh yes..2 in 60 years. I also do not know how fast they went early in those races..i'll guess slower than even pace..thats not a usual KG scenario..and anyone hoping for a lower than even early pace will probably get it..what?...twice in 60 years:D

but even when they go even pace,,there is an injection of a pace for the 4 fences before they turn in that sorts out the doubtful stayer....its stands out when you see the sectionals

from 2 out to the finish..in an even pace KG they run 10% slower than the overall race pace..when LR won last time..they were running a massive 20% below the overall race speed from 2 out..basically walking...due mainly to the injection of pace before they turn in..this injection has appeared on the ones i've looked at...in LR's last win... the overall race pace was also faster than par most of the way..which also made the pace slow so drastically from 2 out..that KG in particular was an energy sapping slog from early on.

you watch most KG's....they start really taking each other on before they turn in...most of the home straight is a test then..and from 2 out you really are running on fumes..its that part that stopped CC last time..and that bit that galvanised SC. This time the ground may be faster..could help CC..but he goes too fast early to kill a KG off i think. Any horse going too fast early in this race will pay hard later..you must go even pace or slower if you are front end..i don't think CC can do that

i'd like to see him win it..but just don't see them letting him dictate a slower than even pace early which he does need to last this out

when horses are running 10% slower than their overall pace late on..its not speed that wins a race..its staying power
 
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I think they might hold him up this time. Didn't work a couple of years back but the ground was very deep that season and the one thing Cue Card does is jump really well out of good ground.
 
Ec. It was clearly 3 horses since 96 (one who won twice) I obviously didnt look back over 60 years. Edredron bleu was a fine horse but not exceptional. I don't go looking for one stand out example to disprove anything and much of the time the race is a real test because they go hard at it early on. But not every time by any means. I wouldn't hang my hat on it.
 
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my point is..that even when they go even pace..not too fast..you will still be running from 2 out 10% slower than your overall race time...so you are looking at horses that are tiring as in..need to stay

like i say..they jump 3 fences along the back..then take the bend turning in..at that point..they are taking each other on..you watch them..very few horses in a KG are cruising here..and they have still got a long way home to go..you won't win that sort of race by speed. Its as though the jocks know you need to be in command turning in and so seem to go for it at that point.

the only way a 2.5 miler can win this is to set slower than even pace early...they have to do that or its curtains..you can't wing this..bluff it...if this race goes even pace..you must stay completely

I haven't looked at one yet where they do go less than even pace early on..i might try and look at Edredon..be an interesting one
 
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You keep hearing it that it's an easy 3 miles. Myth, you need to stay.

To Cue Card. Even though he didn't appear to last home last year. He was still only 3 or so lengths behind. On better ground you never know.
 
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