King George VI Chase - Boxing Day, Kempton

Grasshopper said:
Champagne Fever is at a level Vautour has already comfortably surpassed. I don't get the comparison.
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not comparing the horses..weren't the best comparison but was comparing the way they kept aiming that one at 2 miles when was better over further..with Vautour if they try Kempton..then don't drop back if don't stay...keep persisting with 3 miles..that would be a shame. i know they don't like the ryanair so they might want to keep trying over further.
 
Tanlic said:
However WMP produced Vautour spot on for the Supreme and then again for the JLT when he put up 2 devastating performances
I can think of no reason why he can't do the same again for his most important test to date.
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Possible ground concerns
possible going right handed concerns
Concerns that it's well known that Ricci's horses are trained to peak in the Spring
How many reasons do you need given his rather short odds. It's not like you're taking a punt at 8/1 plus
 
I'll be all over Cue Card. For me he ticks all the boxes, has the form in the bag and that breathing op has him transformed. I know he easily stays 3miles having watched him the Betfair chase still on the bridle and eased down after the last. Same at Wetherby in the Charlie hall the run before. When Paddy Brennan starts talking of him in the same light as Imperial Commander who beat Denman in his GC you get the feeling this lad is the real deal and that breathing op for a trapped epiglottis has allowed him to breath again and finish out his races 100% better.

Remember 2013 when he had Silvinaco Conti beaten coming to the last only to have a fractured pelvis stop him dead?! On all form this year he's the horse to beat.

Vatour is hard to assess. He didn't look that great at Ascot, far from it. He looked good at Cheltenham last March over 2 and a half but nothing from the next 3 home have won since!! You'd like at least one of them to win to add a bit of substance to it but maybe he was flattered by the winning distance? And then the second that day at Ascot last month, Petit Zig, labouring in the Peterborough half a mile from home wont leave my mind. He'll be meeting a hell of a better quality horse than Petit zig on St. Stephen's Day. Add into the mix that he flopped last Christmas when Clarcam walloped him by 20L, maybe he's a bit of a scrooge and prefers the spring air in his lungs.

Personally, I just couldn't justify backing Vautour at that price with all those doubts hanging over him, having never seen him run over 3m before with the quality of opposition. He could well stay, the breeding is a positive, but the gamble for him the past week or two for the Ryanair is another seed of doubt set in my mind.

Tizzards horses are flying it & I hope there's a flood of money for Don Cossack & Vatour on the day making the already generous 4/1 on Cue Card go even bigger before the off.

Whatever the result, it has the makings of one hell of a race. Lets hope it lives up to the billing.


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That's a fair summary Kauto. I'm giving serious thought to backing Cue Card for the GC now. 12/1 could look awfully big by Saturday evening.
 
It took me a long time to buy into Don Cossack and while nobody'll get rich backing him he looks absolutely rock solid nowadays and I just can't see him being beaten.

His last 4 appearances have been sheer class.
 
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TheBear said:
That's a fair summary Kauto. I'm giving serious thought to backing Cue Card for the GC now. 12/1 could look awfully big by Saturday evening.
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I've had a small punt on him to win the triple crown at 25/1. Betfred or SkyBet


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Much as I love Cue Card, I do have to question how much he has achieved in beating-up Ballynagour, Dynaste and Holywell twice this season. And the defeat of Silviniaco Conti at Haydock might be a touch misleading too, given that one is rising 10yo and may be regressing a little.

I have gone with my gut instinct about his stamina and the value of his form, and place-laid Cue Card at 9/10 this morning. I will go in against him again on the day, if - as I expect - Vautour drifts (seems the obvious one for the bookies to oppose) and he shortens further.
 
I've been all over Don Cossack for this for ages. The only slight doubt is whether Vautour is up to running a big race around Kempton. I also reckon he has stamina doubts, but he'll surely be ridden for the trip which negates some of EC's theory. If he's going to get it it'll be a flat three miles around Kempton rather than a stiff 3m2f around Prestbury Park.

The other thing that I'd say against EC's theory is that all of us would have put Kauto Star in the same bracket when he was stepped up to three miles. The difference here is that Vautour is bred to stay it and Kauto Star wasn't.

I agree with Grassy with regards Cue Card. I love the horse, but just look at what he beat, albeit impressively, and I see him falling short. Silviniaco Conti is a horse I've never really taken to if I'm honest. He'll be at his best on Boxing Day, but I can't see any bit of form that's good enough to beat Don Cossack if he jumps the way he usually does.

Don Cossack has all the ticks in the boxes and I'm pretty confident he'll win, but if Vautour proves me wrong I'll get my money back on him at Cheltenham.
 
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granger said:
Have Timeform ever given Don Cossack a squiggle?
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As in signs of temperament? I don't see any, the worst he got was 2 small x's(jump mistakes) when he fell at Navan and Chelt. But even with those here's an excerpt after winning at Aintree:

10 Apr 15 Ain 1/10 Chase G1 20f Good (t) A. P. McCoy 4 4.23 5.5/- 2kJ 98.4 180
wasted no time making amends for his unlucky defeat in the Ryanair, putting up a top-class effort to turn a Grade 1 into such a procession, potentially one of the best over fences anywhere in recent seasons, even taking into account that most of his obvious rivals underperformed; racing close up, he always looked comfortable in a well-run race, jumped superbly and surged right away from floundering rivals after being produced to lead 3 out;
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Whatever happens I can't remember being so excited about a race for a long time. The missus is a bit miffed that I see it as 4 days till Christmas whereas she keeps telling me it's 3.

Pray god there are no late defections.

P.S. I see Coneygree definitely ruled out of the Gold Cup now.
 
I really hope one of the new generation wins this and wins it well. I shall look forward to proclaiming Vautour or Don Cossack a "monster". At the moment, I can't see past a placed Silvi C .
 
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Vautour has the ready made excuse of being possibly a spring horse and better going left handed. However Don Cossack really has his optimum conditions here and should win if he's all we think he can be. A close second to Conti however with the two of them pulling clear wouldn't be a disaster, it would just point to the Nicholls horse being another Wayward Lad type.
 
I think Don Cossack is in the 180 area..takes it for me in a race i'll just enjoy watching..the betting is irrelevant to me personally...20 quid on to buy some more guinness before the new year is the way to go for me
 
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EC1 said:
I think Don Cossack is in the 180 area..takes it for me in a race i'll just enjoy watching..the betting is irrelevant to me personally...20 quid on to buy some more guinness before the new year is the way to go for me
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Do you think DC is capable of a 180 performance around Kempton, EC?
 
Euronymous said:
Possible ground concerns
possible going right handed concerns
Concerns that it's well known that Ricci's horses are trained to peak in the Spring
How many reasons do you need given his rather short odds. It's not like you're taking a punt at 8/1 plus
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They have a 114,000 reasons to make sure he is spot on for this. WMP is not sending him here half baked and to say Ricci horses are trained to peak only in the spring is a complete nonsense.

Faugheen and Vautour were winning races from November last season and you can easily have a horse peak in December let him down a bit and bring him back for March,

Kauto won the King George and the Gold Cup and Denman the Lexus and the Gold Cup so are we to say WMP is not capable of doing the same as PN?

Anyway what Vautour did in the past has nothing to do with their agenda this season which is blatantly obvious or Vautour wouldn't be here.
 
Tanlic said:
Kauto won the King George and the Gold Cup and Denman the Lexus and the Gold Cup so are we to say WMP is not capable of doing the same as PN?
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Again it's price related and to be honest yes I do doubt it. Mullins has a long way to go to be considered in Nicholls league with regard to training staying chasers.
 
not sure i see Vautour as a "spring" horse either...when horses are novices their form always looks like that if they are aimed at the festival..once they are no longer novices then the target races are two different points in time..the KG then the festival.
 
EC1 said:
not sure i see Vautour as a "spring" horse either...when horses are novices their form always looks like that if they are aimed at the festival..once they are no longer novices then the target races are two different points in time..the KG then the festival.
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Spring for me also means spring ground.
 
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