King George VI Chase

EC1 said:
Long Run was beaten off 158 last time ...as you say..he has also improved 20+ lbs if a 180 is on..possible yes..but its stretching it.

KS nearly fell in the straight today and was under pressure on the far side..he is a shadow of his former self..which says a lot for how good he was.

I think LR is a very good horse..but was very sad to se KS not enjoying himself..reminded me of his run in the GC last year

I hope LR is another 180 horse..the more the merrier...but has he really run one today?
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I'd massively disagree with this EC - IMO the horse is so much better on a flatter track. I've discussed it with others on here but had Long Run in the 165 ballpark prior to the Feltham and as things stand in the UK he's unbeaten on flat tracks (Kempton twice and Warwick once) and at the moment I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Tbh I'm not sure if it's due to the undulating tracks and complications with the jockey (harder to ride an up and down track like Cheltenham) or if it's the horse not liking Cheltenham but to me given how he travelled today and got in close to a few today as he had at Cheltenham and other UK performances in the past 18 months he'd be a certainty at any flat UK/Ireland track and if they do right by the horse they'd target him at something like the Melling Chase at Aintree.

2m 4f Aintree - Master Minded vs. Long Run, now that would be a race to savour!
 
IMO the horse is so much better on a flatter track. I've discussed it with others on here but had Long Run in the 165 ballpark prior to the Feltham and as things stand in the UK he's unbeaten on flat tracks (Kempton twice and Warwick once) and at the moment I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Tbh I'm not sure if it's due to the undulating tracks and complications with the jockey (harder to ride an up and down track like Cheltenham) or if it's the horse not liking Cheltenham but to me given how he travelled today and got in close to a few today as he had at Cheltenham and other UK performances in the past 18 months he'd be a certainty at any flat UK/Ireland track and if they do right by the horse they'd target him at something like the Melling Chase at Aintree.

2m 4f Aintree - Master Minded vs. Long Run, now that would be a race to savour!
 
EC1 said:
RT was a 154 horse 2 runs ago..now he is a 173 horse..to suit todays race.

rose tinted specs imo.

but like i said..if you believe its a 180 today...your choice
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On RPRs Long Run has gone up to 180 from a previous best of 170 (which I believe is about right, give or take a pound or two) while Riverside Theatre is now rated 171 from a previous best of 163.

Kauto Star achieved 169 after blundering, which is actually up 5lb from his opening win this season but well down on his best performances.
 
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I'd love to know in which race Long Run got his 170 RPR. They are either based on a scale which bears no relation to OR's and Timeform figures, or they have plucked the number from out their arse.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'd love to know in which race Long Run got his 170 RPR. They are either based on a scale which bears no relation to OR's and Timeform figures, or they have plucked the number from out their arse.
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I must have been alone (on here at least) in thinking Long Run ran a solid race at Cheltenham in the Paddy Power behind Little Josh – receiving weight from Poquelin and Mad Max who finished behind him but giving weight to the two that beat him. A solid performance for any horse I’d say and a very decent one from a five-year-old. This was a 3lb improvement from his previous best of 167 achieved at Kempton when just four.
 
Not at all, SteveM. Despite being initially gutted at the defeat, I actually thought that the Paddy Power run was pretty handy in the cold light of the following day.

But the fact is that, as DJ has already pointed out, Long Run was beaten from an effective mark of 153 that day, so quite where the fook RPR found a 170 rating for the outing, is a complete mystery.

Like I said, they must be using a scale which bears absolutely no resemblence to Official marks, which only serves to make them look rather ridiculous (imo).
 
Grasshopper said:
Like I said, they must be using a scale which bears absolutely no resemblence to Official marks, which only serves to make them look rather ridiculous (imo).
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I think a three pound improvement in the Paddy Power from his novice chase performance as a four-year-old was absolutely fair.

In fairness to the Post I think it has been his official and Timeform ratings that were too low rather than the RPR being too high. I think you'll find in the next day or two that his OR and Timeform ratings will close up with the RPR.
 
SteveM said:
On RPRs Long Run has gone up to 180 from a previous best of 170 (which I believe is about right, give or take a pound or two) while Riverside Theatre is now rated 171 from a previous best of 163.

Kauto Star achieved 169 after blundering, which is actually up 5lb from his opening win this season but well down on his best performances.
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RPR's can be 10lb higher than OHR's though

I only go by OHR's these days or i get mixed up..same with Timeform..they are higher too

on OHR's LR is no 180 horse yet..imo
 
The Racing Post has got the top performances 2m to 2m5f hurdlers and 3m+ chasers this year by RPR on page 5.

Denman 182
Long Run 180
Imp Commander 174
Burton Port, Diamond Harry, Tidal Bay 172
Riverside Theater 171
Kauto 169

Binocular 168
Menorah 165
Silvinaco Conti 165
Hurricane Fly 164
Overturn 164
Peddlers Cross 163
Starluck 162
Zaynar 162

I don't have the science to back this up, but my impression is that they got way too excited with the KS and Denman performances of a few years ago, and top end ratings have been skewed too highly in recent years to justify it.

I know hurdle ratings will always be an average of 5lb or so below chase ratings, but this has been a far from vintage staying chase season....are there really 8 horses at 170+?
 
SteveM said:
I think a three pound improvement in the Paddy Power from his novice chase performance as a four-year-old was absolutely fair.

In fairness to the Post I think it has been his official and Timeform ratings that were too low rather than the RPR being too high. I think you'll find in the next day or two that his OR and Timeform ratings will close up with the RPR.
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You're missing the point, Steve.

3lbs improvement in the Paddy Power is fair enough, but when it's added to a starting rating that's patently bollocks (the Feltham run was NEVER worth 167 or anything like it) you only compound the error.

Put it this way, if Long Eun has run to 170 in the Paddy Power, you have to have Little Josh on about 165, yet he was beaten nearly 20l in his next start, off a mark of only 155. Either Long Run has improved out of all recognition, or the RPR is wrong. The answer seems very straightforward as far as I'm concerned.

It's quite possible that Long Run's new OR will be close to the RPR mark. Given Phil Smith's propensity to dump his custard in his breeks whenever a G1 is won by more than 5 lengths, it wouldn't be a surprise. But I would be amazed if TF weren't considerably more circumspect, and I reckon they'll rate around 172 at the very top end.
 
Bar the Bull said:
The Racing Post has got the top performances 2m to 2m5f hurdlers and 3m+ chasers this year by RPR on page 5.

Denman 182
Long Run 180
Imp Commander 174
Burton Port, Diamond Harry, Tidal Bay 172
Riverside Theater 171
Kauto 169

Binocular 168
Menorah 165
Silvinaco Conti 165
Hurricane Fly 164
Overturn 164
Peddlers Cross 163
Starluck 162
Zaynar 162

I don't have the science to back this up, but my impression is that they got way too excited with the KS and Denman performances of a few years ago, and top end ratings have been skewed too highly in recent years to justify it.

I know hurdle ratings will always be an average of 5lb or so below chase ratings, but this has been a far from vintage staying chase season....are there really 8 horses at 170+?
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why are hurdlers usually 5lb below chasers Bar?
 
Question for somebody else. Back when I was trying to teach myself how to do myown ratings, I noticed that Postmarks of top horses were around 5lb higher for chasers than hurdlers. More or less consistenly for years. I don't know why.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Question for somebody else. Back when I was trying to teach myself how to do myown ratings, I noticed that Postmarks of top horses were around 5lb higher for chasers than hurdlers. More or less consistenly for years. I don't know why.
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Maybe its because in general Hurdlers have less runs and so don't develop to a rating as a high as a much travelled chaser who has probably run twice as many races - just a development thing

it looks a bit odd though having a champion hurdler a stone behind the top few chasers
 
I regret that as with Moscow Flyer it looks like Kauto Star has gone into steep decline although he would surely have been second but for the blunder two out . The rest of the form looks very dodgy to me . Long Run has no form at Cheltenham anywhere near winning a Grade 1 .

I am wondering whether this is one of those in between years and there could be far worse bets than Midnight Chase each way .

What I cannot quite get with Kauto if he is showing all the same speed and zest at home is whether age has caught up with him , most likely , or whether that awful mistake and fall in the Gold Cup has blown his confidence - he simply has not really travelled in a race since the mistake and albeit he puts in the odd big leap otherwise the fluency appears to have disappeared from his jumping .
 
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he simply has not really travelled in a race since the mistake and albeit he puts in the odd big leap otherwise the fluency appears to have disappeared from his jumping
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There was nothing wrong with his jumping at Down Royal. If you take a look at the replay on Attheraces you'll see that he jumped fluently and economically.
 
Shadz - :lol::lol:

Omigod! :eek: Where did all those new smilies come from? Were they a little gift from Mr Hacker yesterday? Some may even help some people to compromise - no tension. ;)
 
Muttley said:
There was nothing wrong with his jumping at Down Royal. If you take a look at the replay on Attheraces you'll see that he jumped fluently and economically.
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Whilst I would agree with that, watching that race back he didn't travel with the zest of his best performances ~ it was all very laboured really. Most people readily dismissed the style of victory due to the circumstances (completely understandable, of course) but the face remains he has been, for whatever reason, well below par in his last three runs and surely doubts as to whether he is the force of old must exist at this stage.
 
I don't disagree with your analysis of his Down Royal run - I thought he looked, for Kauto, "slow" but it was nothing to do with his jumping, simply that he no longer has the pace. Saturday was a different matter - after the first couple of fences he lost his fluency in his jumping, which compounded the issue of no longer having the pace.
 
Muttley said:
There was nothing wrong with his jumping at Down Royal. If you take a look at the replay on Attheraces you'll see that he jumped fluently and economically.
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I will go back and watch it again but I don't recall being impressed with his jumping - he certainly did not seem to travel all that well .
 
Not sure where to bung all this, but so far: KAUTO STAR, bled from nose; THE NIGHTINGALE, fibrillating heart; FORPADYDEPLASTERER, scoped dirty and is a 'sick horse' according to Tom Cooper.
 
The last top class performance from Kauto was when he had good ground. Every time he meets softening/tacky ground his jumping seems to falter as it did in the GC this year and at Kempton on saturday. That together with his age looks to have caused his downfall.

If the ground is looking like it may be good for the G/C or even quicker I still think Kauto is in the mix. If it softens I wouldn;t go near him.
 
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