King George VI Chase

EC1 said:
Maybe its because in general Hurdlers have less runs and so don't develop to a rating as a high as a much travelled chaser who has probably run twice as many races - just a development thing

it looks a bit odd though having a champion hurdler a stone behind the top few chasers
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The scales they use are different for chasers and hurdlers, which means that the best chasers will always register a higher rating than the highest hurdlers.

It was reset a few years ago, due to 'slippage' (discussed on here at the time I think) - although they have always been different. I'll dig out chapter and verse when I get a chance. Not got it to hand at the moment.
 
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long runs feltham chase was jaw dropping on the eye.

most people crabbed it and even the speed raters didnt have it in the same class as kautos win on the same day.

long runs rsa run was very similiar to his paddy power run.
the horse is just a massive amount of lbs better right handed and in softish tacky, flat ground.

the eye doesnt lie, in the feltham he could have won by any amount of distance, and the cheltenham runs were hugely evident that the horse hated the undulations / left handed / or just the general smell of prestbury park,

whatever it was, he wont win a championship race there , regardless of the shortsightedness of the racing fraternity who will all be saying his jumping is much better now.

his jumping was equally awesome in the feltham, but the magic of cheltenham just doesnt work for him.
 
Maybe Cheltenham will never suit Long Run, but now is not, imho, the time to be too dogmatic about it.

His Feltham run was indeed jaw dropping, but certainly not as a result of his jumping, which was very iffy - there were 2/3 occasions I thought Sam WC would end up on his backside. The same cannot be said of the King George, where he jumped really, really well, to the extent he noticeably outjumped Kauto at every fence where they were upsides one another.

This improvement (which of course was needed to win a King George) in his jumping leaves open the possiblity he could well go very close in the Gold Cup. Cheltenham may not be his track, or it could be that he has improved his jumping enough to run close to what he did on Saturday in the Gold Cup and hence would have a near favourites chance.

There is very little depth of quality in the Gold Cup, with Imperial Commander the obvious horse, but after him you have Kauto and Denman who have both regressed and this is unlikely to stop with now both aged 11; Pandorama who needs it very soft; Sizing Europe who is not good enough and won't stay; Riverside Theatre is a horse I like but almost looks tripless; Punchestowns needs to step up markedly and the danger may be Pride of Dulcote (who also needs to step up). Long Run has a very good chance in the Gold Cup.
 
nHow soft does Pandorama need it? He beat Weapon's Amnesty in a slowly run race on yielding ground at Leopardstown last season.

It was not "fast" ground last year when Imperial Commander won, nor was it soft ground 2 years prior to that when Denman won his Gold Cup. Just because a horse has never run on good ground, does not necessarily mean he will not handle a better surface - once at least.

For me when it comes to Cheltenham, Long Run has questions to answer over the track and has ground queries himself.
 
Very according to connections. Did you think Weapon's Amnesty was wound up that day?

I am not saying he doesn't have questions to answer, more that they are indeed questions and that he can't be deemed not to act around Cheltenham just yet.
 
Imperial Commander looks a lock for the Gold Cup, and it's good that Long Run's at-face-value classy effort is helping hold up his price.

The 4/1 will look a steal in March, I reckon, given the question marks over Kauto Star and - to a lesser extent - Denman, and the gulf in class back to the "promising" ones.
 
Grasshopper said:
Imperial Commander looks a lock for the Gold Cup, and it's good that Long Run's at-face-value classy effort is helping hold up his price.

The 4/1 will look a steal in March, I reckon, given the question marks over Kauto Star and - to a lesser extent - Denman, and the gulf in class back to the "promising" ones.
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I agree with most of this (as per above I think Long Run has a chance) - Denman and Kauto are more likely to be pulled up than win.

Can a case be made for anything else?
 
Hamm said:
Very according to connections. Did you think Weapon's Amnesty was wound up that day?

I am not saying he doesn't have questions to answer, more that they are indeed questions and that he can't be deemed not to act around Cheltenham just yet.
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Pandorama would have no problem beating Weapons Amnesty on soft around Leopoardstown.Cheltenham in March is the name of the game for Weapons Ammesty.
 
Kauto bled on Saturday - and on reflection may even have bled in GC last year. When the gun is to a horses head like it was on those two runs for a prolonged period of a race a bleeder is more likely to bleed. If on the other hand you can get a breather or travel more comfortably a horse is less inclined to bleed. Kauto should side step the Gold Cup for Punchestown - take in Down Royal in October and then be aimed at the Lexus and Hennessy in Ireland. He could mop up Grade 1 chases if campaigned properly. He owes nobody anything and a tough race around Cheltenham in March when they will go flat to the mat all the way will do him no good.
 
I disagree - what has he to gain from going to Ireland and trying to mop up soft Grade 1 races like Beefy . Clive Smith doesn't need the money .

I want to see him retired in one piece not breaking his neck at Cheltenham either as he tries an over extravagant leap to try and keep up .
 
I think he is value for another shot at the GC. This horse hs always been one to tear up the rulebook and there isnt a lot of point in picking up realtively easy prizes just yet.

Someone wrote somewhere that horses do not lose any physical ability after 10 but they do tend to remember and feel things that little bit more. or like many getting towards middle aged, cant be arsed so much and prefer to coast a bit.

I wonder if theres any value in running him at newbury first to see if there is some spark?
 
clivex said:
I think he is value for another shot at the GC. This horse hs always been one to tear up the rulebook and there isnt a lot of point in picking up realtively easy prizes just yet.

Someone wrote somewhere that horses do not lose any physical ability after 10 but they do tend to remember and feel things that little bit more. or like many getting towards middle aged, cant be arsed so much and prefer to coast a bit.

I wonder if theres any value in running him at newbury first to see if there is some spark?
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Newbury is not his track - remember that scrape home in the Aon from L'Ami .
 
Grasshopper said:
I would be amazed if TF weren't considerably more circumspect, and I reckon they'll rate around 172 at the very top end.
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Prepare to be amazed... Timeform has raised its rating on Long Run by 15lb to 178 as opposed to the RPR up 10lb to 180. So whatever their differences before it seems that they more or less agree now. Whether Timeform was too low before or the RPR too high, it seems to have equalised to a great extent now.
 
Newbury is not his track - remember that scrape home in the Aon from L'Ami .
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Was there that day, but whilst hes not quite so good left handed, its hard to see why newbury would be a major issue for any runner? as flat and fair as any in the country. I think that was just a slightly below par day
 
SteveM said:
Prepare to be amazed... Timeform has raised its rating on Long Run by 15lb to 178 as opposed to the RPR up 10lb to 180. So whatever their differences before it seems that they more or less agree now. Whether Timeform was too low before or the RPR too high, it seems to have equalised to a great extent now.
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I confess I am a little amazed, Steve. Far too generous an interpretation from the Halifax mob, imo.

They have been known to get it wrong in the past though (whereas as I'm obviously bomb-proof :D)
 
178 was about as low as they could go. This is allowing for the minimum improvement of Riverside Theatre. Rating the race through (even making allowances) through any other horse brings a rating above 180. Funny how when Denman/Kauto won their big races there was never such caution applied ... :confused:
 
I would rather Kauto run in the former Whitbread (Bet365?) Gold Cup - give everyone the handicap performance they are crying out for.

If he's lost a bit of pace, 3m 5f could be right up his street. No reason why he can't take in the Gold Cup en route - see how the land lies after the first circuit, if he's struggling, pull him up and live to fight another day. Hope he does come to Down Royal, keep finding myself otherwise engaged that day but will definitely go this time round!

Pandorama will most likely be carrying my money for the Gold Cup, the going is obviously a bit of a concern but it hasn't exactly been like a road the last few years so I'm prepared to take a risk.

Imperial Commander is 10 now - a few age statistics to overcome and does seem to be a bit of an in and out performer looking back through the formbook. If he puts his best foot forward he should win comfortably, but I don't think I could trust him to do that.
 
The idea that Kauto has lost a bit of pace and that means he would do better in a Gold Cup or in the Whitbread does not sit with me - likely to be outpaced over any trip.
 
Ha! Somehow, I knew this would be the response. :lol:

For the record, I think the 2009 race can be reasonably confidently handicapped through Nacarat and Barbers Shop (though both ran slightly below their handicap marks, imo).
 
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