Update: Long Run’s OR has been raised to 179 splitting Timeform’s 178 and RPR’s 180.
Kauto down to OR 174.
King George VI Chase
- Thread starter Ardross
- Start date
Update: Long Run’s OR has been raised to 179 splitting Timeform’s 178 and RPR’s 180.
Kauto down to OR 174.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
This might not be the thread for this discussion, but can anybody who knows anything about ratings address the issue I have regarding all the good chasers automatically getting 170+ ratings. And the hurdlers having to sweat blood to do so.
No reflection on Kauto who was well below his best, but Long Run put up an impressive display imo. Riverside Theatre (who I backed) was pin sharp for this and Long Run put him firmly in his place.
An OR 10lb lower would show hardly any improvement from his Paddy Power performance, or indeed from his novice chase performance as a four-year-old.
The scales for Chasers and Hurdlers are in effective set differently (although purport to be the same/similar). Due to “slippage” in comparative ratings they were reset a few years ago (although the disparity also applied before that). I know this sounds contradictory. The bottom line is that top chasers will always outperform top hurdlers by about half a stone, more or less.
Connected to a chaser in its prime (on average a year or two older) being superior (or better able to carry weight) to a Hurdler in its prime. I’ve got all of this somewhere, but have yet to dig it out.
Best advice is not to compare Hurdle ratings with Chase ratings (any more than you would compare a Flat rating with a NH rating), only compare within each code.
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EC1
On a break
If LR is a 179 horse then KS must still be quite an animal..poorly in the race..stopped to a walk after nearly fell in the straight..and still finished 3rd
mmm
mmm
For the time being. See below:
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A bit of blurb re Timeform that doesn’t add much to what we have said:
Timeform maintains different scales for horses racing on the flat, over hurdles and over fences. The scores cannot be compared for the obvious differences between the race types. For instance Arkle at 212, Flyingbolt at 210, Mill House and Kauto Star both at 191 are the highest rated steeplechasers ever, whilst the highest rated horses over hurdles are Night Nurse at 182, Istabraq and Monksfield both at 180 and Persian War at 179. The table below lists scores for flat horses only starting with the highest, rated at 145 which is the legendary French horse Sea Bird.
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BHB: An article from 2003 referring to but not completely explaining the anomaly.
Hurdlers set to race off higher ratings from today
Byline: Lee Mottershead
THE majority of British-trained hurdlers will race off new official marks as from today after a slippage in ratings was addressed by the annual review of the National Hunt files, writes Lee Mottershead.
For the third year running, the review, which seeks to restore the balance between the planned race programme and the available horse population within each rating range, has been based on a graduated ratings rise.
Hurdles marks of horses
rated between 130 and 139 have been raised by just 1lb, while those with ratings
between 20 and 29 go up by 12lb. The ratings of chasers remain unchanged.
Explaining the move, the BHB's hurdles handicapper handicapper Phil Judge said: "We just find that in one season the hurdles file is dropping and, if nothing is done to arrest it, horses will drop out of ratings bands.
"It's hard to say what are the reasons for the slippage. The chase file remains fairly constant, but I think it's probably down to the fact that there are a greater number of finishers in races over hurdles than over fences and there are therefore more horses to reassess.
"It might also be down to a kinder approach to handicapping, but that's a difficult one to assess."
COPYRIGHT 2003 MGN LTD
Kauto's best is set at about 190. Current mark: high-160s to mid-170s... so not as much as 30lbs below, nearer to 20lb.
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Steve, I was referring specifically to his performance in the King George (apologies if that wasn't clear) where he received a 19 length beating, which with Long Run being raised to 179, must put Kauto in the low 160s, hence more or less 30 pounds below his best.
About Long Run
I have gone to 176p, and being on the generous side, prepared to rectify but would not be surprised if he posted more a 172.
About Kauto
retirement beckons, he is an accident waiting to happen, he will end in the Gold Cup in the same place he did last season,on the floor.
I have gone to 176p, and being on the generous side, prepared to rectify but would not be surprised if he posted more a 172.
About Kauto
retirement beckons, he is an accident waiting to happen, he will end in the Gold Cup in the same place he did last season,on the floor.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Kauto was staying on before his mistake and would have been a clear second but for clouting the second last. He's lost his speed but could place at Cheltenham given a trouble free round, which in itself isn't that likely given his tendancy to hit one when he tires.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Long Run anything above 170 is a joke!
Long Run anything above 170 is a joke!
As I mentioned in reply to Ardross (who appears to share your opinion) earlier. An OR 10lb lower would show hardly any improvement from his Paddy Power performance, or indeed from his novice chase performance as a four-year-old.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I can't agree with this, Steve.
Long Run was beaten off a mark of 153 (taking SWC's claim into account) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Whilst he probably ran to a mark around 158 in the race (my figure, and his OR for the Cheltenham race), an OR of 169 would still represent considerable improvement on his run there.
It's the mark of 179 that makes the eyes water, as it represents improvement verging on super-sonic - for all that he is clearly better suited to Kempton than Cheltenham.
Kauto's KG rating was actually above his earlier winning performance this season... so it's actually closer to 20lb below.
Just because he was beaten off 153 doesn't mean he's run to 153. The two he beat him have clearly run to well above their marks. His RPR was 170, with Timeform and OR below this. (However, Timeform and OR have had to raise him even more than the 10lb RPR raised him to get all three to 178/179/180 now).
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Very easily, Hamm - by having a different opinion (that's not intended to be glib).
As has been said before - by DJ, I think - it's quite a moody race in terms of a top-class G1 staying chase, and it's not a race to draw too many firm conclusions from). Too many horses failed to give their running, or didn't stay, or are on the downgrade, to have a strong opinion on the level of form achieved, imo.
In such circumstances, I tend to err on the side of caution - rightly or wrongly.
I've rated LR at 172, but wouldn't have any great faith that it's accurate. It could be +/- a half-stone as far as I'm concerned.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Indeed not - as I said in my post.
I'm sorry you did say that... It seems common sense that he's better than 170 to me though. While he may not have run to 180, he has clearly run to something like it and much closer to 180 than 170.
Didn't think you were being glib ... my interest is how you come to your conclusion
So, you think RT ran to around 160 and Kauto in the mid 150s?
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On The Bridle
At the Start
I'm no handicapping expert so in my very simplistic way of looking at this I have centred on one horse Riverside Theatre and used Kauto and Nacarat (and my subjective view as to their respective performances) to ground my conclusion.
Riverside Theatre is tripless and below a G1 chaser at 3 miles - he came in off 160 and was beaten by LR fairly and squarely by 12L - using him as my main benchmark I would possibly rate LR 8 - 10lbs his superior - ergo I would expect them to finish a lot closer if Riverside was receiving 10lb from LR, leaving LR somewhere in the 168 - 170 region.
Kauto, as has subsequently been revealed was carrying a virus, bled and IMO has been regressing since his last KG victory. His starting point was / is at least 10lb too high and I believe he ran a further 20lb below that mark not allowing for the huge blunder at the 2nd last. Agian leaving LR running to a mark somewhere north of 165 tops 170 .
Nacarat started off 158 - patently didnt finish out his race - ran to somewhere about 5 lbs below his best so again leaving LR somewhere between 167 - 170.
Again I will repeat I'm no expert and there is quite a bit of subjectivity there buts thats my take on the race for what its worth.
NB.
If they aim Riverside Theatre at the Ryanair he would be decent value at 8/1.