King George VI Chase
- Thread starter Ardross
- Start date
Colin Phillips
At the Start
What sort of rating would Arkle and Flyingbolt have acheived if they were racing today?:blink:
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
185 Colin 
On The Bridle
At the Start
If Long Run gets 179 the Arkle gets 210 all day
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Where would the likes of Cool Dawn and Teeton Mill have finished if racing in modern times against Kauto and Denman? Imo they'd have been slaughtered, and yet they both acquired 173 ratings. It's just this perception that beaten horses, no matter who is dishing out the beatings, don't look visually impressive and so people doubt 170+ marks.
Is it really that big a deal that Long Run is rated half a stone in front of Go Ballistic and Strong Promise.
I’d agree... With the rare exceptions since Arkle and co – such as Burrough Hill Lad, Desert Orchid, Carvill’s Hill, Best Mate, Moscow Flyer, etc – Kauto, Denman and Master Minded represent a step change among latter day chasers.
While I would have some doubt that Long Run achieved 180. I'd agree with the part that GH said that he could be 172 and anywhere up to half a stone on top of that. I can't see that he could be below 172 though and personally would place him mid- to high-170s... For that reason I don't think his OR of 179 is too far out.
Last edited:
Very harsh to bracket Teeton Mill with Cool Dawn - the horse ended his career in the Gold Cup and we will never know how good he was - he beat SMB out of sight in that KG.
Best Mate and Beefy never achieved 179 - modern ratings are just too high and skewed by the ratings given to KS and Denman and the belief it seems that those two always run to those peaks whenever they won .
Denman and Kauto are better horses than Best Mate though. Best Mate was, however, especially attuned to the Gold Cup, which brought out his best.
Denman is the horse whose rating I question most. Applying standard handicapping principles to his runs in handicaps can distort things, imho. He will never feel the strain of carrying weight like a lighter framed horse, and hence will be (massively) seen to best effect in these conditions.
Has he ever run to 180 in a non-handicap? I don't think so. He has had plenty of opportunities to do this as well. It goes to show (for me) that you simply can't equate handicaps with Grade 1s all of the time.
Has he ever run to 180 in a non-handicap? I don't think so. He has had plenty of opportunities to do this as well. It goes to show (for me) that you simply can't equate handicaps with Grade 1s all of the time.
You’re clearly having a laugh… Denman’s Gold Cup winning performance was one of the best of all time… Also handicap ratings are all about carrying weight.I'm not!
Kauto was around the 182 mark at the time, and ran an awful kind of race. Denman only beat Neptune C by 7 lengths (who I believe is typical of the kind of horse who has received an inflated rating to allow Denman and Kauto to be bumped up).
If the rating for that race was correct (I know you would probably make it higher!), why has he never been able to re-produce it before or since in non-handicaps?
Kauto was around the 182 mark at the time, and ran an awful kind of race. Denman only beat Neptune C by 7 lengths (who I believe is typical of the kind of horse who has received an inflated rating to allow Denman and Kauto to be bumped up).
If the rating for that race was correct (I know you would probably make it higher!), why has he never been able to re-produce it before or since in non-handicaps?
He's not needed to reproduce that in non handicaps (winning races like the Lexus well within himself) - although being runner-up also in a couple of Gold Cups to Kauto and IC is not too shabby - but it hasn't stopped him generally winning (the RSA for example was spectacular). He has however reproduced similar ratings in the Hennessy and like I say ratings are inescapably connected with the ability to carry weight.
Last edited:
He has needed to! He needed to in 2 Gold Cups and couldn't, at Punchestown, at Aintree. I'm not knocking him, but my point is that the ratings he achieved in handicaps (where some horses have an 'advantage' due to finding it easier to carry weight) he has not been able to replicate in non-handicaps.
The 179 is looking more questionable by the day - Nacarat was probably the one reasonable yardstick left in the race once KS is discounted on health and Alberta's Run on the ground .
I doubt the difference is anywhere near as large as the ratings suggested . Indeed I will give you Kauto Star but not necessarily Denman over Best Mate - a horse that only ever did enough .
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Is there any basis to a theory that a horse like Denman can carry big weights better than other horses? We are talking 500k give or take with each horse. Can they physically tell the difference between having 10 stone or 12 stone on their back? I'm not convinced and won't be until anyone can produce evidence to the contrary.
EC1
On a break
the difference between 10 stone and 12 stone to a horse may seem insignificant when viewed in isloation..but then again 28 lengths has less significance when measured as a fraction of 3 miles
an average racehorse is what- 1100lbs...so adding 2 stone on its back is adding 2% of its body weight
if we assume that those 2 stone will slow a horse down by 28 lengths at 3 miles..about 280 feet..thats 1.7% of the distance
so it might seem 2 stone is bugger all but its a bigger % of the horse's weight than the distance we might believe it slows it down.
we know that adding more weight won't make it cover the ground faster..if it did I would start walking round with 2 bags of shopping to speed me up
on that evidence it makes sense that a stronger horse physically is better equipped to carry weight than a smaller weaker horse
Last edited:
davidjohnson
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
In terms of tip-top efforts in handicaps though, Denman isn't alone in producing them. The likes of Azertyuiop, Desert Orchid, Kauto Star and even the little runt that is Well Chief have all produced massive efforts in handicaps off big weights and none of them would be build like Denman.
The only thing to consider for me in terms of these handicaps is ability v handicap mark v opposition. That's why Denman won 2 Hennessy's not 3, despite carrying the same 'weight' for them all.
The only thing to consider for me in terms of these handicaps is ability v handicap mark v opposition. That's why Denman won 2 Hennessy's not 3, despite carrying the same 'weight' for them all.
EC1
On a break
I think Denmans handicap efforts are greater than those you mention though - hence his build is an advantage..imo
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Horses have to carry almost 12st in the top conditions races. If Kauto at his peak had run in the RP Chase he would have won rated well over 180.
EC1
On a break
but so do other horses in the top conditions events
i doubt Kauto would have won off 180..he lost the only hcap he ran in didn't he?
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He wasn't far off in last year's Gold Cup. Timeform gave him 179 for his first win and he must have been within 5 or 6 lbs last March. But he is a horse who needs his conditions to run anywhere near his best. So runs at Aintree and Punchestown and small field events were never going to suit him.