King George VI Chase

Hamm said:
Didn't think you were being glib ... my interest is how you come to your conclusion :cool:

So, you think RT ran to around 160 and Kauto in the mid 150s?
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Thereabouts Hamm, yes.

My position in terms of exalted ratings (anything verging on 180 counts) is that I'd want reasonably robust evidence before supporting such a figure, and I don't think the KG is sufficiently robust to support the OR/TF/RPR figures, though others clearly view it differently.

C'est la guerre.
 
Grasshopper said:
I've rated LR at 172, but wouldn't have any great faith that it's accurate. It could be +/- a half-stone as far as I'm concerned.
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I can't see any way it could be minus half a stone from 172, but would concede it could be anywhere within half a stone upwards of 172.
 
I would be very surprised if people didn't see that as a career best from Riverside Theatre.

Even rating Kauto in the KG at around the 160 mark gets Long Run most of the way to 180.

Nacarat seemed to run his race to me, and surely ran right up to his OR.

I think the problem here (this isn't a dig at anyone; I do the same myself all the time) is people had pre-conceived notions of how good Long Run was (or wasn't) and are looking for ways to drag down the form to fit into this. I am clearly a fan of the horse and certainly have been biased towards him, but I feel this is quite an easy race to rate, even when making allowances to ensure it is not rated too highly.

Saying that, the forum would be pointless if we all agreed :)
 
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Grasshopper said:
Thereabouts Hamm, yes.

My position in terms of exalted ratings (anything verging on 180 counts) is that I'd want reasonably robust evidence before supporting such a figure, and I don't think the KG is sufficiently robust to support the OR/TF/RPR figures, though others clearly view it differently.

C'est la guerre.
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I'm surprised you don't see the KG as a career best from Riverside Theatre but he is a hard horse to get a handle on in some respects.

Surely you would concede Nacarat ran his race, and hence could somewhat reliably could be used as a yardstick?
 
Hamm said:
I would be very surprised if people didn't see that as a career best from Riverside Theatre.

Even rating Kauto in the KG at around the 160 mark gets Long Run most of the way to 180.

Nacarat seemed to run his race to me, and surely ran right up to his OR.

I think the problem here (this isn't a dig at anyone; I do the same myself all the time) is people had pre-conceived notions of how good Long Run was (or wasn't) and are looking for ways to drag down the form to fit into this. I am clearly a fan of the horse and certainly have been biased towards him, but I feel this is quite an easy race to rate, even when making allowances to ensure it is not rated too highly.

Saying that, the forum would be pointless if we all agreed :)
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I don't think KS ran a 160 in the KG..is how i don't see LR as a 180...KS's run was just a shadow of his best...and don't forget his best isn't always 190+

KS was under pressure..wasn't 100% and nearly fell..he could have easily run 30/40lb below his best....some horses regularly run that far below their best..to say he ran a 160 is being very generous i think...the blunder alone cost him 10 lengths..or lbs

you are guessing that RT has improved..but you do know his rating for sure going into the race

which means the main "guessers" here are those trying to pin imaginary ratings on all 3 horses rather than working of a real rating we have for RT
 
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On The Bridle said:
Riverside Theatre is tripless and below a G1 chaser at 3 miles - he came in off 160 and was beaten by LR fairly and squarely by 12L - using him as my main benchmark I would possibly rate LR 8 - 10lbs his superior - ergo I would expect them to finish a lot closer if Riverside was receiving 10lb from LR, leaving LR somewhere in the 168 - 170 region.
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You're likely to be way off if you are basing the KG on this. RT is going through a very steep rate of improvement and is a very talented young horse that was virtually certain to run a career best before the race (backed in from 16s to 10s on the day). That he has run to a personal best certainly appears evident after it.
 
Hamm said:
I'm surprised you don't see the KG as a career best from Riverside Theatre but he is a hard horse to get a handle on in some respects.

Surely you would concede Nacarat ran his race, and hence could somewhat reliably could be used as a yardstick?
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I'd say that a mark of 162 does represent a career best for RT - by some way.

Nacarat? I'm not convinced. He is a regressive, if admirable, handicapper, I fear - despite his win in a soft Charlie Hall.
 
Hamm said:
I think the problem here (this isn't a dig at anyone; I do the same myself all the time) is people had pre-conceived notions of how good Long Run was (or wasn't) and are looking for ways to drag down the form to fit into this. I am clearly a fan of the horse and certainly have been biased towards him, but I feel this is quite an easy race to rate, even when making allowances to ensure it is not rated too highly.

Saying that, the forum would be pointless if we all agreed :)
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You could be right Hamm! My biggest issue with the bets I have lost over the years is supporting a strongly held belief about a horse long after that belief should have well and truly changed. Maybe some of us here are cribbing the form and making it fit after judging LR either consciously or sub-consciously on his last two runs at Cheltenham. I will wait and see in the GC - I couldnt bring myself to back him at 5/1 now. Even that race might not prove definitively what mark he deserves!!
 
SteveM said:
You're likely to be way off if you are basing the KG on this. RT is going through a very steep rate of improvement and is a very talented young horse that was virtually certain to run a career best before the race (backed in from 16s to 10s on the day). That he has run to a personal best certainly appears evident after it.
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but RT isn't going through a very steep rate of improvement is he?

last 3 races before KG 154-154-160

thats not steep

140-150-160

now thats steep:)
 
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On The Bridle said:
I will wait and see in the GC - I couldnt bring myself to back him at 5/1 now. Even that race might not prove definitively what mark he deserves!!
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The Gold Cup will probably take a mid-185 performance this year, so Long Run would probably have to improve again. While he is clearly entitled to take part I wouldn't be taking 5/1 on him either... I'm on Denman at 12/1 and have defended my stake on Denman with Imperial Commander at 4/1.
 
Hamm said:
I think the problem here (this isn't a dig at anyone; I do the same myself all the time) is people had pre-conceived notions of how good Long Run was (or wasn't) and are looking for ways to drag down the form to fit into this. I am clearly a fan of the horse and certainly have been biased towards him, but I feel this is quite an easy race to rate, even when making allowances to ensure it is not rated too highly.
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Hamm, I've been a fan of Long Run ever since I saw him win the big 4yo hurdle at Auteuil in 2008. I backed him in the KG (aftertiming, I know), and feel no need or desire to drag his form down - I'm merely trying to give an honest and objective assessment of the level of form I feel he has reached at Kempton
 
Grasshopper said:
Hamm, I've been a fan of Long Run ever since I saw him win the big 4yo hurdle at Auteuil in 2008. I backed him in the KG (aftertiming, I know), and feel no need or desire to drag his form down - I'm merely trying to give an honest and objective assessment of the level of form I feel he has reached at Kempton
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i totally agree Grass - people are getting carried away here..and its pure guesswork..but RT rating going into the race isn't guesswork..thats why the argument for 180 is weak imo
 
Grasshopper said:
Hamm, I've been a fan of Long Run ever since I saw him win the big 4yo hurdle at Auteuil in 2008. I backed him in the KG (aftertiming, I know), and feel no need or desire to drag his form down - I'm merely trying to give an honest and objective assessment of the level of form I feel he has reached at Kempton
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I remember you and Irish Stamp bigging up Long Run all last year when the arguement over who was better Long Run or Punchestown was up for debate. You definitely are not against the horse.

I was against the horse in his last two outings at Cheltenham - in favour of him at Kempton.
 
Just for correctness, it was the Cambaceres (3yo hurdle) I saw him win - which now seems an age ago, and the Maurice Gillois (4yo chase) the following year. :cool:
 
EC1 said:
but RT isn't going through a very steep rate of improvement is he?

last 3 races before KG 154-154-160

thats not steep

140-150-160

now thats steep:)
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You’re a tough audience EC :(... Riverside Theatre is a 7yo that in just five completed chases has gone from a RPR 150-rated performer on his debut as a 5yo, to 163 (his best prior to the KG), to a 171 runner-up in the King George. That looks steep enough progress to me!

You may well say you disagree with the figures but how far out are they likely to be when the OR, Timeform and RPR are all now quite close. Surely this suggests the evidence is clearing the waters rather than muddying them.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
I think it is a very poor year. If the top rated performance is from a horse being beaten 15L plus in what looks like a weak Hennessey, how can it be strong?
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How was the Hennessy weak? It has been widely acknowledged as one of the strongest seen!
 
SteveM said:
You may well say you disagree with the figures but how far out are they likely to be when the OR, Timeform and RPR are all now quite close. Surely this suggests the evidence is clearing the waters rather than muddying them.
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No chance that all three want to avoid having to give Kauto something in the low-150's, when they all had him rated in the 190's before the race?
 
SteveM said:
You’re a tough audience EC :(... Riverside Theatre is a 7yo that in just five completed chases has gone from a RPR 150-rated performer on his debut as a 5yo, to 163 (his best prior to the KG), to a 171 runner-up in the King George. That looks steep enough progress to me!

You may well say you disagree with the figures but how far out are they likely to be when the OR, Timeform and RPR are all now quite close. Surely this suggests the evidence is clearing the waters rather than muddying them.
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:)

without the 171 it doesn't though

as Grass points out..who would want to put a low rating up after the others are high?

the real point is..that RT's rating before the KG is the only factual figure we have...the attempts to rate the KG by the 3 orgs is based on pure guesswork...how much RT improved..if any...how low did KS run..both are actually impossible to quantify..whereas that RT pre rating is already there.

i think most of thse pros still got the KG wrong as well..never a 140 horse...a rating mainly derived from none staying CB

so they aren't infallible.
 
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Galileo said:
I remember you and Irish Stamp bigging up Long Run all last year when the arguement over who was better Long Run or Punchestown was up for debate. You definitely are not against the horse.

I was against the horse in his last two outings at Cheltenham - in favour of him at Kempton.
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If you read my posts again you'll see I was very clear saying I didn't think anyone was against the horse, but we all have notions of how good each horse can be, and this naturally affects our judgement when it comes to ratings.
 
Grasshopper said:
Hamm, I've been a fan of Long Run ever since I saw him win the big 4yo hurdle at Auteuil in 2008. I backed him in the KG (aftertiming, I know), and feel no need or desire to drag his form down - I'm merely trying to give an honest and objective assessment of the level of form I feel he has reached at Kempton
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I'm well aware - sure didn't we both have him at around 200 for the Arkle?
 
It seems they hand out over 170 ratings like smarties nowadays - Best Mate was only 170 for his first Gold Cup . I agree that it seems that the extraordinary ratings they gave to KS and Denman mean that they end up giving very high ratings to anything that beats or gets near them - despite there being little other form to support the rating given .
 
Ardross said:
It seems they hand out over 170 ratings like smarties nowadays - Best Mate was only 170 for his first Gold Cup . I agree that it seems that the extraordinary ratings they gave to KS and Denman mean that they end up giving very high ratings to anything that beats or gets near them - despite there being little other form to support the rating given .
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It seems that way for chasers anyway - I was dubious about the high rating Imperial Commander got for his Gold Cup too.

It amazes me looking back how Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief were rated - if they were racing now (post Kauto and Denman) I suspect the handicapper would be much more open to rating them higher.
 
Ardross said:
It seems they hand out over 170 ratings like smarties nowadays - Best Mate was only 170 for his first Gold Cup . I agree that it seems that the extraordinary ratings they gave to KS and Denman mean that they end up giving very high ratings to anything that beats or gets near them - despite there being little other form to support the rating given .
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Bang on.

I thought BM's rating was spot on at the time; but if they are dishing out all of these ton seventies, he might feel hard done by.
 
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