King George VI Chase

EC1 said:
but so do other horses in the top conditions events

i doubt Kauto would have won off 180..he lost the only hcap he ran in didn't he?
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He hacked-up in the Old Roan Chase (Limited Handicap). I'd need to check, but he gave a stablemate (Orange colours? Begins with K?) a lot of weight and a thorough hiding that day, off a mark in the mid-160's I think. I think that was the race that really made most people sit up and take proper notice of the horse.

Not me though. I knew all about him when he was a pony in a field. :whistle:
 
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Armaturk was the stablemate in that race I think. Was still interested in jumping then! And what a likeable horse he was.
 
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Denman , not being at his best would have beaten Best MAte in his 3 Gold Cup wins.



About Kauto
he is simply finished, some doubts abouthim ale to post a 170 when at his best was a 188 /190 horse.
 
Hamm said:
He has needed to! He needed to in 2 Gold Cups and couldn't, at Punchestown, at Aintree. I'm not knocking him, but my point is that the ratings he achieved in handicaps (where some horses have an 'advantage' due to finding it easier to carry weight) he has not been able to replicate in non-handicaps.
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When beating Kauto Star in the Gold Cup Denman recorded an RPR of 184.
When finishing runner-up in the Gold Cup he recorded 173 and 176 (but in the first of these he had been a sick horse all season).

His other three best performances in non-handicaps were: 178, 169 and 165 at Newbury and Cheltenham. In the Aon he beat Regal Heights 20 lengths and Ollie Magern 80 lengths, so you could make up any number you like for that.

In his three Henessys Denman recorded RPRs of: 183, 184 and 182. Imperial Commander, Kauto and Long Run will have to pull out all the stops to replicate this sort of mark, that I'm confident Denman will run to.


Denman has therefore recorded four ratings above 180, but as you say only one in a non handicap. However you make too light of his Hennessy performances, these are the best handicap performances since Arkle.

He suffered from going wrong at a crucial point in his career. But is now back to something like his best, which is why I think he’ll still take the beating in the Gold Cup this time even if not at his absolute best.


I believe his current Timeform rating is 181 and his OR 182. Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Long Run will have to pull out all of the stops to replicate this and I'm confident Denman will be able to run to between his official mark and 185 in the Gold Cup this time.
 
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Euronymous said:
He wasn't far off in last year's Gold Cup. Timeform gave him 179 for his first win and he must have been within 5 or 6 lbs last March. But he is a horse who needs his conditions to run anywhere near his best. So runs at Aintree and Punchestown and small field events were never going to suit him.
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the fact that LR's win and Denman's win in the GC gets the same rating tells you that they have overrated LR...could you see LR winning that race like Denman did?

why do they call him the tank i wonder?
 
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SteveM said:
When beating Kauto Star in the Gold Cup Denman recorded an RPR of 184.
When finishing runner-up in the Gold Cup he recorded 173 and 176 (but in the first of these he had been a sick horse all season).

His other three best performances in non-handicaps were: 178, 169 and 165 at Newbury and Cheltenham. In the Aon he beat Regal Heights 20 lengths and Ollie Magern 80 lengths, so you could make up any number you like for that.

In his three Henessys Denman recorded RPRs of: 183, 184 and 182.

Denman has therefore recorded four ratings above 180, but as you say only one in a non handicap. However you make too light of his Hennessy performances, these are the best handicap performances since Arkle.

He suffered from going wrong at a crucial point in his career. But is now back to something like his best, which is why I think he’ll still take the beating in the Gold Cup this time even if not at his absolute best.


I believe his current Timeform rating is 181 and his OR 182.
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what evidence is there he is back to his best?

the Hennessey run didn't...the weight added factor doesn't hide the fact he lost by a long way
 
EC1 said:
what evidence is there he is back to his best?

the Hennessey run didn't...the weight added factor doesn't hide the fact he lost by a long way
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In his three Henessys Denman recorded RPRs of: 183, 184 and 182. He achieved these ratings when fully fit in each season. To me this shows remarkable consistency.


As I later added to my last post. Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Long Run will have to pull out all of the stops to replicate this. I'm confident Denman will be able to run to between his official mark (of 182) and 185 in the Gold Cup this time. I can't say that for certain about the other three.
 
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EC1 said:
what evidence is there he is back to his best?

the Hennessey run didn't...the weight added factor doesn't hide the fact he lost by a long way
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He lost by a long way only because he couldn't shake Diamond Harry off. He outjumped him at the fourth last only to see his rival immediately back on the bridle. No horse could give that sort of weight concession to top class rivals. No one will ever confuse Burton Port with Character Building.
 
SteveM said:
In his three Henessys Denman recorded RPRs of: 183, 184 and 182. He achieved these ratings when fully fit in each season. To me this shows remarkable consistency.


As I later added to my last post. Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Long Run will have to pull out all of the stops to replicate this. I'm confident Denman will be able to run to between his official mark (of 182) and 185 in the Gold Cup this time. I can't say that for certain about the other three.
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you seem to worship at the altar of the RPR Steve:)...is it because they are higher than OHR's so look more impressive?


the flaw in the last Hennesey rating is that he got well beat and the only reason they awarded him a 182 is due to the weight he carried - which a big tank of a horse like him should be able to carry.

If he won or had been beaten a short distance I would say it was more in line with his previous henesseys..as it was he did neither

also lacking in his last few runs has been that injection of power 4 or 5 out where he left oppo for dead..that was what separated him from the rest

he now looks a plodder to me...I wouldn't touch him in the GC..thats if he even runs
 
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EC1 said:
also lacking in his last few runs has been that injection of power 4 or 5 out where he left oppo for dead..that was what separated him from the rest
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I've explained this already, it's like banging your head against a wall. HE COULDN'T JUMP DIAMOND HARRY INTO THE GROUND BECAUSE HE WAS CONCEDING HIM SO MUCH WEIGHT.
 
sunybay said:
Denman , not being at his best would have beaten Best MAte in his 3 Gold Cup wins.



About Kauto
he is simply finished, some doubts abouthim ale to post a 170 when at his best was a 188 /190 horse.
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Typical assertion without evidence . I should have thought Denman would have been the ideal pacemaker for Best Mate who was always best off a good gallop on good ground. His win in the 2003 Gold Cup was the easiest win in a G1 staying chase I have ever seen - he did not come off the bit.:p

In a few years time his achievements will be re-evaluated - winning 3 Gold Cups in a row is an awesome achievement - that neither KS or Denman could match . The fact is he was ground dependent to produce his best results .
 
Euronymous said:
I've explained this already, it's like banging your head against a wall. HE COULDN'T JUMP DIAMOND HARRY INTO THE GROUND BECAUSE HE WAS CONCEDING HIM SO MUCH WEIGHT.
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the weight isn't a big deal to a big horse though..he couldn't jump DH into the ground..because he isn't as good as he was.
 
EC1 said:
you seem to worship at the altar of the RPR Steve:)...is it because they are higher than OHR's so look more impressive?
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Not at all. It's simply because I have them to hand for all races. Timeform or ORs are just as good, but its more difficult to access complete sets. It gets more muddied if you don't compare like-with-like.

I think Timeform have him on 181 now, but possibly a bit higher in the past. They probably gave him a similar rating in the mid-180s for beating Kauto Star.
 
EC1 said:
he now looks a plodder to me...I wouldn't touch him in the GC..thats if he even runs
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That's one interpretation, but I think the wrong one. I think he is more certain to line up and more certain to run well than any of the other principals.
 
SteveM said:
When beating Kauto Star in the Gold Cup Denman recorded an RPR of 184.
When finishing runner-up in the Gold Cup he recorded 173 and 176 (but in the first of these he had been a sick horse all season).

His other three best performances in non-handicaps were: 178, 169 and 165 at Newbury and Cheltenham. In the Aon he beat Regal Heights 20 lengths and Ollie Magern 80 lengths, so you could make up any number you like for that.

In his three Henessys Denman recorded RPRs of: 183, 184 and 182. Imperial Commander, Kauto and Long Run will have to pull out all the stops to replicate this sort of mark, that I'm confident Denman will run to.


Denman has therefore recorded four ratings above 180, but as you say only one in a non handicap. However you make too light of his Hennessy performances, these are the best handicap performances since Arkle.

He suffered from going wrong at a crucial point in his career. But is now back to something like his best, which is why I think he’ll still take the beating in the Gold Cup this time even if not at his absolute best.


I believe his current Timeform rating is 181 and his OR 182. Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Long Run will have to pull out all of the stops to replicate this and I'm confident Denman will be able to run to between his official mark and 185 in the Gold Cup this time.
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Steve,
You're missing my point! - I know very well the ORs/RPRs/TFs Denman has run to - my point is he is favoured (not diminishing his achievements, just stating what I believe is something he is better built to do than most) by carrying weight in handicaps because carrying weight does not have the same effect to him as it does on most horses.

There is simply no way Denman ran to 182 this time around - he got absolutely destroyed and they are trying to say he ran to his rating?! He looks plain slow to me now, and I think his best days are well past. I would expect he will be outpaced, along with his stablemate, some way out.
 
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Hamm said:
Steve,
my point is he is favoured (not diminishing his achievements, just stating what I believe is something he is better built to do than most) by carrying weight in handicaps because carrying weight does not have the same effect to him as it does on most horses.
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As DJ asked, has this theory been put to the test, or is it simply a truism accepted throughout the sport? Has anyone attempted to define the relationship between build and ability to carry weight?
 
Denman looked slow as any horse can look slow if weight stop him.

He was running this year in an impossible mark of 182, and with many people knowing he was going to run and people preparing horses for a Hennessy that 10 years ago would not be running in the race.


The Denman of this year in the Newb race would beat the best Best Mate in a canter.
 
Euronymous said:
I've explained this already, it's like banging your head against a wall. HE COULDN'T JUMP DIAMOND HARRY INTO THE GROUND BECAUSE HE WAS CONCEDING HIM SO MUCH WEIGHT.
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Absolutely.

Bar must be on another wind-up coming out with crap like 'he was thrashed in his last three races'. Ergo I won't bother pointing out the bloody obvious to him when it comes to assessing the form of those races.
 
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