King George VI Chase

I don't get your reasoning there Reet.....he won the King George last year on soft ground.

I thought Bravemansgame looked to be well below top class in the Gold Cup and has run that way twice since.

Plus this is a far better renewal. Couldn't have it on my mind to back him despite PN's outstanding record.
 
There may be the odd soft patch, but a g/s reading of 7.1 signifies borderline fast ground in reality.
 
viking said:
Klassical Dream in the Feltham gives him a 2nd Grade 1 ride


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Neither of the Mullins pair go in the Feltham so just the Allaho ride Townsend comes over for


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My old pal Giovinco goes for the Kauto Star but yu would haave to imagine PN will know the strength of his. having beaten him witha stable companion last time.

However there could be a better option.

Il Est Francais looked pure class for most of the way over fences last time out.
He seemed to be taking 2 strides for everything elses 3 and was always travelling very easily.

The ground was very heavy and he did tire in te closing stages but if it turns up good to soft on Boxing Day he could prove to be a class above the home team.

Offered at 2/1 I expect he'll be available around 5/2 or 11/4 on the day.

I am happy to risk a few shillings
 
I have had a closer look at the race and still come to the conclusion that I have absolutely no idea who wins this :lol:

The word which kept repeating in my head was 'forgive', as it seems if you give chances to the majority of Boxing Day's field, you are forgiving 1 or 2 of their most recent runs! There is some serious quality in a small, but select field, and I think you can give claims to pretty much any of them.

If you narrow down the winner between now and 2.29pm on Tuesday, let me know please.
 
Tanlic said:
My old pal Giovinco goes for the Kauto Star but yu would haave to imagine PN will know the strength of his. having beaten him witha stable companion last time.

However there could be a better option.

Il Est Francais looked pure class for most of the way over fences last time out.
He seemed to be taking 2 strides for everything elses 3 and was always travelling very easily.

The ground was very heavy and he did tire in te closing stages but if it turns up good to soft on Boxing Day he could prove to be a class above the home team.

Offered at 2/1 I expect he'll be available around 5/2 or 11/4 on the day.

I am happy to risk a few shillings
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I haven't seen the video but in France he has a very high rating for a novice which, if translated literally, would give him a stone advantage.

It might not work out literally (although you'd imagine there are internationally agreed calculations for rating) but even if only allowing 2lbs per kilo he'd still be on 154 so should arguably be favourite.

I've taken 2/1 and can always go in again if he does drift.
 
Yes, I saw it via the ATR site. Never out of second gear.

For good measure I've taken it in an ew double with the French raider at Aintree (1.05). Again the latter's French rating puts it miles clear and 8/1 with four places available strikes me as stupidly generous and will hopefully pay for Christmas and New Year :lol:
 
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Alloha looks a laydown so I've doubled him with Est Francais in the Kauto.
Good luck to all,and merry Chhritmas.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I saw it via the ATR site. Never out of second gear.

For good measure I've taken it in an ew double with the French raider at Aintree (1.05). Again the latter's French rating puts it miles clear and 8/1 with four places available strikes me as stupidly generous and will hopefully pay for Christmas and New Year :lol:
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U probably seen a lot more than me. I can get replays from the UK but their international ones like from France are blocked to anyone that cant bet with Skybet
 
I'm cheering Shishkin.

I remember fancying a young Fakir for the Ryanair Chase that year when Allaho was like a machine though.

One thing I am sure about is Allaho is some horse at his very best.
 
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I'm not sure, but he has jumped left several times on right handed tracks. I'm interested to see how he handles Kempton.
 
edgt said:
Anyone worried about Allaho bouncing ?
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Paul Townend coming over to ride or Wiliie sending the horse over doesn't tell us much as he wouldn't want him and Gallopin Des Champs to clash.

That said Gollopin put Bravemansgame well and truly in his place in the Gold Cup and he could have come here.

Can only guess but he's had layoffs before, come back and won 2 on the trot twice, so it is highly unlikely.
 
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edgt said:
Anyone worried about Allaho bouncing ?
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No. The received wisdom of the bounce theory is that 42 days is the normal recovery time after a hard race/career best. None applies to Allaho in this case. He didn't have a hard race last time. it wasn't anywhere near a career best and it was 47 days ago.

If he doesn't win it won't have anything to do with the bounce.
 
Pricewise

2.30 Kempton
1pt win Hewick :blink:

If all the principals in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton (2.30) turn up in their best form it could be a brilliant race, but there are big question marks against all the runners and it's anyone's guess as to which one is going bring their A-game.

The obvious place to start is with last year's easy winner Bravemansgame, who went on to finish second in the Gold Cup. However, he hasn't won a race for a year now and it would be hard to suggest that his two runs this season have been anywhere near his best.

Paul Nicholls is the best trainer around and dominates this race, so there is every chance Bravemansgame could bounce back, but even the Gold Cup form isn't working out that well and he's a shorter price this year when not appearing to be in the same form as last year.

Allaho would be a good thing if we could guarantee he was back to the level that saw him run away with two Ryanairs and a Punchestown Gold Cup, but he beat nothing in a slow time on his comeback and he's always been better left-handed. Furthermore, he is going to have Frodon and The Real Whacker harrying him out in front.

If we could be sure Shishkin was at his brilliant best he would be a good bet at 9-2, but he hasn't been the same since he beat Energumene at Ascot. He's been beaten three times at 6-5 or shorter since and that doesn't even include him refusing to race at Ascot. Maybe first time out is the time to catch him, but I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him these days.

The Real Whacker was one of the best novice chasers around last season and is a great jumper, but he comes into this race having been pulled up in a handicap last time and will have loads of pace pressure up front.

Consequently it could be worth hoping for an upset and relying on Hewick to deliver the goods. He's not actually too far off the best of these on his best form and has a brilliant record going right-handed and on good ground. He's crammed a lot into his career given that he's still only eight and is officially rated only 4lb behind Bravemansgame.

He would probably have finished in the frame in last year's Gold Cup if he hadn't come down two out and he has conditions exactly as he'd like them. If the front ones aren't as good as they once were then don't be surprised if Hewick, under the ultra- confident Gavin Sheehan, beats the lot of them.
 
Seems to me there are question marks all round, but there is one thing that’s for certain which is that Nicholls will have Bravemansgame as right as it’s possible to get him. He might not turn out to be good enough, but he’ll do for me.
 
edgt said:
Anyone worried about Allaho bouncing ?
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Nah;the drop in grade indicates lto was no more than a warm-up and, considering his time off and the lack of serious challenge, was probably considered job done, and I'd doubt he'd be running had connections not thought so too.
 
Pricewise has a habit of throwing shyte at a wall until some sticks then boasting about how good a tipster he is.

I have very little respect for the handicapper ever since he kept Sprinter Sacre on 175 after beating Un Des Sceaux 15 kengths in his final race with 2 QMCC winners behind him.

Which brings me to Hewick.

He scraped home in the Galways plate off 155 beating the second by 1/2 length who was rated 148 and the handicapper put him up to 163 which makes absolutely no sense.

He may have beaten Bussleton at Listowel had he not fallen but he's won nothing since. He wins in the USA from a horse who lost his next 3 races which tells us nothing as we can't compare ours to theirs.

Gets absolutely trounced in the Gold Cup wins anothing race at Sandown then gets trounced again in his last 2 races.

Exactly what bit of form gives him the right to even enter the horse.......what gives him the right is the handicapper being so hard on the horse there's nowehere else for him to go

So Shark sends him here looking for luckies.

I'll be surprised if he is not tailed off.
 
barjon said:
Seems to me there are question marks all round, but there is one thing that’s for certain which is that Nicholls will have Bravemansgame as right as it’s possible to get him. He might not turn out to be good enough, but he’ll do for me.
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Agree he'll likely run to his best,but feel he needs more of a test and will need to force a pretty strong pace to see the others off.
Cracking contest all round though.
 
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