King George

Having watched the videos of both her runs this year, I just have to be worried that Danedream just isn't the same filly as last year. They way she accelerated in the Arc is different gear to how she didn't pick up in France, and she was workmanlike on her return. On paper, I fully agree she's the bet, given the level of her 3-y-o form.

The more I look at the race, the more I think it's a Pullein.
 
sunybay said:
SEa Moon won well the HArdwicke but lacked the speed for the St Leger and the BC Turf, too short
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With Sea Moon he ran into all sorts of trouble at Doncaster and plainly didn't give his Voltigeur running. He ran well in America without looking top class but this was a 3yo running in the Breeders Cup after taking in the Leger. He's surely better than that and I think his form this year proves the point.
 
the KG is a poor race for mares/fillies..

last winner Time Charter..5 ran in last 10 years and all unplaced
=============================================
last 11 years ages

3yo: 3-2-14
4yo: 8-7-42
5yo: 0-7-26
6yo+: 0-2-12
==============================================
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

that removes Nathaniel [run in it before] - Danedream [girl] - SNA [run in it before] - Dunaden [age]



i'm backing SEA MOON...just on the stats :)
 
Dahlia won it twice


it is very unusual a top class fillie kept in training and not alone running here

3yo fillies dont target the race either
since 1990 only :
Look Here (2009)
Eswarahh (2005)
Aquareliste (2002)
Shiva (2000)
User Friendly (1993)
 
sunybay said:
Dahlia won it twice


it is very unusual a top class fillie kept in training and not alone running here

3yo fillies dont target the race either
since 1990 only :
Look Here (2009)
Eswarahh (2005)
Aquareliste (2002)
Shiva (2000)
User Friendly (1993)
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Of those five, only Eswarah was a 3yo when running in the King George
 
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EC1 said:
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

that removes Nathaniel [run in it before] - Danedream [girl] - SNA [run in it before] - Dunaden [age]



i'm backing SEA MOON...just on the stats :)
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Just prior to your sample I can think of 2 horses who had run in it before - Swain (dual winner) and Pentire (2nd to Lammtarra the year before).
 
simmo said:
Just prior to your sample I can think of 2 horses who had run in it before - Swain (dual winner) and Pentire (2nd to Lammtarra the year before).
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqW-_KjJW5c

I was all over Pentire that year but not when he won. Ran a cracker in both renewals and ruling Nathaniel out because he's run in the race before isn't the best of reasons to oppose him imo. Poor run from Arc winner Carnegie as well with no WFA :ninja:
 
sunybay said:
back to the Arc and Steves wfa affair
what he is saying is
his beloved Montjeu, Lammtarra, Dalakhani, Sea The Stars,Zarkava,Hurricane Run and Dancing Brave were not true champions, all of them would have been beaten without it by ECP,FC,Mubtaker, YOumi, Westerner and Tryptich,

all of them would not have won with that supposed bad wfa
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Suny I'd appreciate it if you didn't try to tell me what I'm saying.
 
davidjohnson said:
Having watched the videos of both her runs this year, I just have to be worried that Danedream just isn't the same filly as last year. They way she accelerated in the Arc is different gear to how she didn't pick up in France, and she was workmanlike on her return. On paper, I fully agree she's the bet, given the level of her 3-y-o form.

The more I look at the race, the more I think it's a Pullein.
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Her form in May and June this year is actually very similar to last year. She recorded RPRs of 114 and 115 in May and June this year, finishing first and fourth. April to July last year she set ratings of 98, 107, 112, 113, 119, finishing fourth, third, first, fifth, first.

Her two best ratings were significantly higher in September and October, but her general level of form is the same as it was.
 
Zenyatta said:
Steve, do you have any convincing evidence to support your weight for age theory? You seem very confident that you're right so assume that you have some data to support that conclusion. I'd be interested to see it because I think it's an interesting area.
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Apologies to those who are becoming sick and tired of this... Weight-for-age is a scale not a theory (and not mine). The WFA scale introduced by Admiral Rous in the mid-19th century (albeit subject to subsequent revision and modification) appears biased toward the three-year-olds in races such as the Arc. This is fine as long as we want to hand the 3yos a concession, but not fine if we want to call it a championship race.
It is expressed as the number of pounds that it is deemed the average horse in each age group falls short of maturity at different dates (i.e. it changes throughout the season) and distances.

Since 1990 17 three-year-olds have won the Arc. WFA is not the only thing determining this but is clearly the main reason, as if they had carried the same weight 17 3yos would not have won.
 
those stats were tongue in cheek tbh..i was just highlighting that using them gives Sea Moon

they were from last 11 years..hence no Pentire Dahlia etc

i don't know Bar..but i'm keeping it simple and backing the stats pick ..saves all the analysis..umming and arring over form etc;)

i'll bet Sea Moon wins anyway :)
 
Bar the Bull said:
And while you are at it, Steve, do you mind telling me whether you think WFA should be:

- changed for all races
- abolished for all races
- kept the same but abolished for one or two Group 1 races
- changed for all races, but abolished for one or two Group 1 races.
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Not abolished for all races. But perhaps tweaked for those races that come at the end of the season (to reflect that the 3yos are closing the gap). It is actually modified from time to time as it is.

In addition I would like to see it abolished for a couple of Group 1 races, so the true champion horse of the season taking on all comers at level weights can emerge.
 
SteveM said:
Apologies to those who are becoming sick and tired of this... Weight-for-age is a scale not a theory (and not mine). The WFA scale introduced by Admiral Rous in the mid-19th century (albeit subject to subsequent revision and modification) appears biased toward the three-year-olds in races such as the Arc. This is fine as long as we want to hand the 3yos a concession, but not fine if we want to call it a championship race.
It is expressed as the number of pounds that it is deemed the average horse in each age group falls short of maturity at different dates (i.e. it changes throughout the season) and distances.

Since 1990 17 three-year-olds have won the Arc. WFA is not the only thing determining this but is clearly the main reason, as if they had carried the same weight 17 3yos would not have won.
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so if we had no wfa you are saying no 3yo would have won?...so its fair to say that without it THEY are at a disadvantage?
 
EC1 said:
so if we had no wfa you are saying no 3yo would have won?...so its fair to say that without it THEY are at a disadvantage?
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Some may have won (but not 17 since 1990). But yes, they are disadvantaged, but only by falling short of being the best horse. It is just another form of handicapping to offer them a concession.
 
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SteveM said:
In addition Stoute also has a pretty good record in this. If Sea Moon wins I think he becomes the most successful trainer in this race.
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i think Stoute actually targets the race..whereas other trainers think of it as an afterthought or mid season warm up for other targets..maybe thats why such as Harbinger won so easily..he was trained for the race as his main target whereas others take it or leave it

;)
 
SteveM said:
Some may have won (but not 17 since 1990). But yes, they are disadvantaged, but only by falling short of being the best horse. It is just another form of handicapping to offer them a concession.
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so a 3yo has to have the abilty to be 10lbs better than his true ability mark just to overcome not being fully mature

i doubt any owner would enter a 3yo in such a race that you want to see..far easier to go the Camelot route and then retire without ever seeing an older horse

your championship race would be between below top class 4yo+...Youmzain & horses like that..can't see the appeal tbh
 
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SteveM said:
Her form in May and June this year is actually very similar to last year. She recorded RPRs of 114 and 115 in May and June this year, finishing first and fourth. April to July last year she set ratings of 98, 107, 112, 113, 119, finishing fourth, third, first, fifth, first.

Her two best ratings were significantly higher in September and October, but her general level of form is the same as it was.
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Wish I had seen this piece of analysis before I had my bet....thanks Steve you have ruined my day...:p
 
EC1 said:
so a 3yo has to have the abilty to be 10lbs better than his true ability mark just to overcome not being fully mature

i doubt any owner would enter a 3yo in such a race that you want to see..far easier to go the Camelot route and then retire without ever seeing an older horse

your championship race would be between below top class 4yo+...Youmzain & horses like that..can't see the appeal tbh
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I agree not many 3yos would line up, but I'm not suggesting it for all races, only those in which we want to see the best horse in training win.
 
SteveM said:
I agree not many 3yos would line up, but I'm not suggesting it for all races, only those in which we want to see the best horse in training win.
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if the allowance was removed the Arc would be a g2 in 10 years;)

look at how many races a middle distance 3yo can aim at late season..here and abroad...Arc would never see another 3yo for certain

also look at how it might also persuade owners to stick at 10f races for their 3yo..no incentive to stay 12f anymore really

you could completely destroy a race like the Arc imo
 
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