King George

Marble said:
Steve may or may not be talking out of his anus about wfa
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It's unlike Steve to let his rectal canal do his talking for him and, knowing what it's like farting against thunder, I reckon he's entitled to argue all he wants. I just wouldn't want to see counter-arguments descend into personal insults (not accusing Marble of doing so, btw).

I'm with those who disagree with him. Different bodies have researched tens of thousands of racehorse performances using sophisticated computer programs and they have concluded that younger horses are on average the number of pounds (within a racing context) detailed in the wfa scales less mature.

Whether Danedream, or any other successful 3yo taking on older horses, is advantaged by it is another matter as individual horses will not all, by definition, conform to an average. I have long believed the only reason 2yos put up 'top class' performances is because they are ahead of the average in their development.

As for Saturday's race:

St Nicholas Abbey 126+ c?
Nathaniel 125 (126?)
Sea Moon 125p
Masked Marvel 122o (124?)
Dunaden 120+
Brown Panther 118+ (120?)
Danedream 118? (133)
Deep Brillante 118o
Reliable Man 117 (120)

I’m not sure what to make of the King George these days. There have been a number of good winners but they weren’t obvious beforehand – Nathaniel last year being an extreme example – and it seems ages since a true superstar took part, yet Harbinger put up the type of performance only a superstar could produce.

This year’s renewal looks very difficult to fathom. St Nicholas Abbey arguably brings the best form this season into the race but I find myself swayed by the evidence of those who argue that he is not so effective going right-handed.

Nathaniel was visually impressive in the Eclipse but I have doubts about the value of the form and he looks a possible candidate for the ‘bounce’.

Sea Moon strikes me as a more solid proposition than either of these two. His Hardwicke win looks reliable form and suggested he is still improving. He is probably the percentage call on this year’s form.

It is hard to ignore the brilliant win by Danedream in the Arc, in which the German filly sprinted home in a very fast time. She hasn’t been near that form this season but it was about this stage last year that her improvement curve really steepened and it may be that she needs time to find her form. I do not doubt the Arc form. I reckon it is rock solid and if she can get within half a stone of it she will take some beating. I think she is a bet worth taking at double-figure odds.

There has to be a suspicion that Masked Marvel is back-up material for Nathaniel so a place is probably his best prospect. Dunaden and Reliable Man don’t look good enough. Brown Panther would not appear to have the beating of Masked Marvel. This leaves the Japanese G1 winner Deep Brillante – also the only three-year-old – and his official rating leaves him with a lot to find.

Danedream will win if close to her Arc form, otherwise the race is Sea Moon’s for the taking.
 
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Just one point, why wasn't Dylan Thomas a superstar?

An Arc, an Irish Derby, a King George, 2 Irish Champion Stakes...

Azamour wasn't too shabbly either. I am not sure, but I am pretty sure they were champion older horses the years they won the King George.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Just one point, why wasn't Dylan Thomas a superstar?

An Arc, an Irish Derby, a King George, 2 Irish Champion Stakes...

Azamour wasn't too shabbly either. I am not sure, but I am pretty sure they were champion older horses the years they won the King George.
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I was looking at recent years (the last five are listed in the Weekender so he's there) but he was a high 120s horse at his best. I'm looking for a figure of 130 before I start to think about real class and well into the 130s for superstar status. I'd fancy myself against Youmzain.
 
I would have been interested in Deep Brillante but having watched some video's of him his jockey looks like he's riding rodeo... Not convinced he won't be a hinderance. If a local jock was up i'd give him a chance as I reckon his jock has chucked a couple of races by committing too early. How his form stacks up in relative terms i'm not sure but his times are not too shabby so i'd guess he warrants a rating in the low 120's which might be enough with the WFA concession.

This is a tough race to figure out so i'll probably stick to cheering on Paul Lawrie at 100/1!!
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Right. So we have two independent scales based on actual research which agree on what the WFA should be for the Arc. But you think they're both wrong.
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So I'm not entitled to question it in view of the results we're getting? I'm suggesting they try harder. It's been modified before and can be so again.
 
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Zenyatta said:
I'm not sick and tired of it. Far from it in fact. I know exactly what WFA is but it is your theory (that it "appears biased towards the three-year-olds in races such as the Arc") which is interesting but difficult to attach any credence to without the necessary supporting evidence. Saying that 17 3yos have won since 1990 tells us nothing about whether they are favoured by the WFA scale.
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Doesn't it. I don't reckon 17 would have won since 1990 otherwise.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Different bodies have researched tens of thousands of racehorse performances using sophisticated computer programs and they have concluded that younger horses are on average the number of pounds (within a racing context) detailed in the wfa scales less mature.
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But I'm agreeing that a WFA scale should be used in races in which you want to hand the 3yos a concession (although in the case of the Arc it appears overdue for tweaking).

It's just that I also want to see a race in which the best horse in training wins, irrespective of concessions. If that means a new race so be it.
 
EC1 said:
looking at those two seasons actually suggests the wfa isn't enough
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The Board raised the Northern Hemisphere allowance to 8lb from 7lb for 3yos over 12 furlongs for the 1995 renewal when many expected it to be dropped. There has been a landslide of 3yo winners since.
 
SteveM said:
It's just that I also want to see a race in which the best horse in training wins, irrespective of concessions. If that means a new race so be it.
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You would need a number of races over different distances with those conditions to decide that. Everyone else would then also argue its flawed because of horse maturity.... And then the argument just becomes circular.
 
SteveM said:
Doesn't it. I don't reckon 17 would have won since 1990 otherwise.
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It makes no consideration of what might have been expected to happen. How many 3yo winners were expected during that period? i.e. by representation, by ratings, by odds, etc.

You may well be right but I am reluctant to either agree or disagree without some evidence. I will endeavour to look into it myself, at least in relation to the Arc, at some stage. Somebody with the benefit of a database query could obviously do it a lot easier. ;)
 
Aragorn said:
You would need a number of races over different distances with those conditions to decide that. Everyone else would then also argue its flawed because of horse maturity.... And then the argument just becomes circular.
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You wouldn't need a number of races though. Just one race in which the best horse breathing irrespective of concessions could show it was just that would be fine.

It wouldn't be a race to prove anything just one that identifies the best horse irrespective of age.
 
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Back to the KG. I'm still not much nearer to finding the winner than I was at the start of this thread.

It seems that Nathaniel will get to post okay, which given the week less between the Eclipse and KG this year put that in some doubt earlier.

But as I said earlier if he runs to a sub-130 level (which he is capable) SNA and Sea Moon would have to improve on their best performances to win.

Very good strength in depth this year, one of the 'must see' races of the season.
 
SNA is a 10/1 shot imo..wrong ground...and too slow even on his favoured ground

sea moon..improving..no ground issues

the decision between these two is an easy one..imo
 
SteveM said:
You wouldn't need a number of races though. Just one race in which the best horse breathing irrespective of concessions could show it was just that would be fine.

It wouldn't be a race to prove anything just one that identifies the best horse irrespective of age.
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if my 4yo beat a 3yo at levels by a head..i wouldn't be a proud owner as i would be thinking my horse isn't better as the other one isn't mature yet.

would anyone think their 20 year old son beating a 14 year old in a county mile race was a great achievement?
 
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Zenyatta said:
It makes no consideration of what might have been expected to happen. How many 3yo winners were expected during that period? i.e. by representation, by ratings, by odds, etc.
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Exactly; you need to find some way of establishing a reasonably reliable counter-factual. Like all statistics that involve extrapolating what might have happened, it's a very tricky thing to do, particularly given the amount of confounding variables you would have to control for here.

For instance, using odds as a means of controlling for expected result may give a skewed result as it could plausibly be argued that 3yo's may have generally started at shorter odds than their 'true chance' due to people taking into account the WFA allowance. Not saying that has been the case, but it certainly could be logically argued.

If older horses aren't campaigned with the same emphasis on the race that would also have to be controlled for. You could theoretically use a proxy (number of runs in a season, number of days since last run or something) to come up with some sort of rough guide, but it certainly wouldn't be an easy task.
 
trackside528 said:
Exactly; you need to find some way of establishing a reasonably reliable counter-factual. Like all statistics that involve extrapolating what might have happened, it's a very tricky thing to do, particularly given the amount of confounding variables you would have to control for here.

For instance, using odds as a means of controlling for expected result may give a skewed result as it could plausibly be argued that 3yo's may have generally started at shorter odds than their 'true chance' due to people taking into account the WFA allowance. Not saying that has been the case, but it certainly could be logically argued.

If older horses aren't campaigned with the same emphasis on the race that would also have to be controlled for. You could theoretically use a proxy (number of runs in a season, number of days since last run or something) to come up with some sort of rough guide, but it certainly wouldn't be an easy task.
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i think odds are a good way..i doubt many prices were skewed due to wfa..punters don't bother with it imo when assessing group races
 
EC1 said:
i think odds are a good way..i doubt many prices were skewed due to wfa..punters don't bother with it imo when assessing group races
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I do which is why I've been backing 3yos in the Arc certainly since it was bumped up to an 8lb differential and indeed before. It offers real value against favourites above that age, which is great from a betting angle, but not so great in terms of a championship result.
 
I've had to take some of the 3/1 Nathaniel. With doubts over Danedream's form this time of year (which I was too lazy to research) he stands out to me if hf is over a hardish race in the Eclipse. JG thinks he is which is good enough for me. Long shadows are cast over Sea Moon (slightly weaker form and cold cold trainer) and SNA does not seem to be able to negotiate two relatively easy right hand bends.
 
I'm more concerned about the ground with SNA. Racing Post Trophy aside, it appears his ability to quicken on ground softer than good is approximately equal to zero.
 
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I still think we haven't seen the best of him. Very confident he'll win well today and he's my biggest bet of the flat season so far.
 
On The Bridle said:
Long shadows are cast over Sea Moon (slightly weaker form and cold cold trainer)
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I appreciate you may be making a point about Stoute at the top level but he's third in the Post's "hot trainers" list today - 6/13 in the past fortnight, a 46% strike rate.
 
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