King George

This race has turned into Known class V potential in my opinion.

I'm convinced John Gosden will win it but with which horse?


I have to stick with the filly and obviously have a saver on Eage Top

I just can't see Telescope becoming a future star but I can see Eagle Top going places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well that's two for a start!! Add in Treve. Add in the Japanese horses.

The Fugue (ok the trip might have been a problem).

But that isn't the point I was making. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

This is not just a Group 1. It is meant to be the midsummer world 12f championship race. To be a proper G1 horse you need - on my figures - to be able to run to 126 (123 fillies & mares) just to get a mention.

A very generous reading of Telescope's win last time might get in there. I just have my doubts about that. And he looks the best in the race. Forget what big race winners are there. It's a question of how good they are. This, to my eyes, is a long way off a proper G1 race. They're all much of a muchness, hence the 'handicap' quip.

Maybe I just can't help it if I set high standards...
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The fact that the fugue has retired might be "a problem" too. Might as well say it's missing dancing brave too

How can a race with 5 group one winners in I not be a group one?

Can someone explain
 
Tanlic said:
This race has turned into Known class V potential in my opinion.

I'm convinced John Gosden will win it but with which horse?


I have to stick with the filly and obviously have a saver on Eage Top

I just can't see Telescope becoming a future star but I can see Eagle Top going places.
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Largely agree, Tanlic.

The problem for me is that the 'known' class is sub-G1 standard. It's therefore the 'potential' that I'll be watching for in this race. I was very taken with Eagle Top last time.

This is what I wrote after the Hardwicke:
Telescope was visually impressive in the Hardwicke but I’m not convinced the performance was quite the 126 that Raceform awarded him let alone the 129 by Timeform. If the time comparison with Arab Spring can be taken at face value then Telescope recorded 123, which I think is more likely. This was a Group 2 in name only with only 5lbs separating the entire field on ORs, making an average rating of 112. On another day pretty much any of the next group home could have won and to beat that average of 112 by 7 lengths (10½ lbs), would put Telescope on 123, exactly the same as his time rating. Runner-up Hillstar (OR115) didn’t get a clear run, third placed Pether’s Moon was off 110 as was the fourth Forgotten Voice but the latter was given a lot to do off a medium pace. I reckon the race should be rated around these two, which would put Telescope on about 121-125 so I’m keeping an open mind about the level of the form. At this stage I would be very reluctant to go beyond the higher of those two figures.
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I stand by that and, as I said, he might well be the best in the field.

Strip out likely pacemaker Leitr Mor and there's only 9lbs between the rest of the field and the average OR is just under 117. To me you shouldn't be allowed to run in the race off that kind of mark :whistle:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well that's two for a start!! Add in Treve. Add in the Japanese horses.

The Fugue (ok the trip might have been a problem).

But that isn't the point I was making. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

This is not just a Group 1. It is meant to be the midsummer world 12f championship race. To be a proper G1 horse you need - on my figures - to be able to run to 126 (123 fillies & mares) just to get a mention.

A very generous reading of Telescope's win last time might get in there. I just have my doubts about that. And he looks the best in the race. Forget what big race winners are there. It's a question of how good they are. This, to my eyes, is a long way off a proper G1 race. They're all much of a muchness, hence the 'handicap' quip.

Maybe I just can't help it if I set high standards...
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I'd check out some of the past KG's if i were you DO..i don't mean the last few years..some of what we now percieve as the really good KG's aren't actually crammed full of 125+ horses..they are like this one..very competetive with early 120 horses

the races you want are pretty rare i think..not just KG's either
 
EC1 said:
I'd check out some of the past KG's if i were you DO..i don't mean the last few years..some of what we now percieve as the really good KG's aren't actually crammed full of 125+ horses..they are like this one..very competetive with early 120 horses

the races you want are pretty rare i think..not just KG's either
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Yes, I'll check that out over the next couple of days, EC1. But it hardly alters the principle of wanting the very best horses to contest the very best races. How many of this field - right now - would be considered serious candidates in a normal Arc?
 
The king George is a very good race, good edition by recent standards but not the race that used to be in the mid 80s until mid 90s.


This edition is a competitivo race but arc level horses that can be missed

Treve
Cirrus
The fugue
Sea the moon
Australia
Diane winner
Japanesse horses , including derby winner, harp star, kizuna, Gold Ship, just a way and gentildonna.
No french 3yo
Etc



By the way
This is between magician and flintshire in that order.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I'll check that out over the next couple of days, EC1. But it hardly alters the principle of wanting the very best horses to contest the very best races. How many of this field - right now - would be considered serious candidates in a normal Arc?
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i would think if you compared the Arc with the KG in most years in the last 50 teh Arc would be a better race

it depends what a better race means

lets say you use average OHR like you have here

here's one KG

130
130
115
115
115
105 pacemaker

average = 118

here is another

125
125
125
115
115
115

average = 120

which is "better"?

in first one you have two really good horses..but rest of field is muck

in second one you 3 just below really good horses but probably still a very good race

we all know the KG is not as fashionable as it once was...but compared to recent renewals this is one of the most interesting..interesting is good imo
 
sunybay said:
The king George is a very good race, good edition by recent standards but not the race that used to be in the mid 80s until mid 90s.


This edition is a competitivo race but arc level horses that can be missed

Treve
Cirrus
The fugue
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but even if those 3 ran it wouldn't make it a better race...Treve..ground too fast...Cirrus ..ground too fast...fugue too far

so they would not run their races or enhance the finish of the race ...and its the finish of a race that we all actually judge a race's worth in reality
 
Desert Orchid said:
What makes you think that, James?
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gosden saying he supplemented him at the 5 day stage as they can't do it later and at the time they forecast rain before the weekend. forecast changed now (no rain before sunday) and he sort of hinted he wouldn't have done the same at today's 48 hour stage.

he'll walk the course on saturday before deciding.
 
2013: Cirrus OR 131 (disappointed, leaving a substandard group to pick up the pieces)
2012: First two ORs (going into the race) - 128 & 126
2011: Nathaniel beat Workforce (128) and SNA (123)
2010: Harbinger 123 beat a bunch rated under 120 (bar the disappointing fav Workforce 128)
2009: The first three were 125, 122, 120

How many of this year's race would be fancied to beat Hurricane Run, Dylan Thomas, Azamour, Doyen, etc?
 
JamesRB said:
gosden saying he supplemented him at the 5 day stage as they can't do it later and at the time they forecast rain before the weekend. forecast changed now (no rain before sunday) and he sort of hinted he wouldn't have done the same at today's 48 hour stage.

he'll walk the course on saturday before deciding.
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Cheers, JRB. Maybe I should think about getting rid of my bet!
 
Desert Orchid said:
2013: Cirrus OR 131 (disappointed, leaving a substandard group to pick up the pieces)
2012: First two ORs (going into the race) - 128 & 126
2011: Nathaniel beat Workforce (128) and SNA (123)
2010: Harbinger 123 beat a bunch rated under 120 (bar the disappointing fav Workforce 128)
2009: The first three were 125, 122, 120

How many of this year's race would be fancied to beat Hurricane Run, Dylan Thomas, Azamour, Doyen, etc?
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the worse one there is Harbinger's re OHR's..and yet everyone raves about that race

this years race is better than Harbinger's...Eagle Rock could easily be a 125+..i have his speed figure as 125

Magician is 124
Telescope is 123
Mukhadram is 121
Taghrooda could be a 120+

i'm not seeing its a poor race tbh..potentially 5 horses capable of above 120..some mid 120's

edit - 6 horses including Flintshire
 
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EC1 said:
which handicaps could Taghrooda Eagle Rock & Magician run in though?
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That isn't the point, though. Mind you, wasn't Farraaj off 111 at York the other week? Speaking of which, I wouldn't be surprised if Farraaj won tomorrow en route to winning the Juddmonte...

Eagle Rock was on 92 before his last run. Imagine if Gosden had sent him straight here...

Magician was on 124 at the start of the season so if they can get him back to form and maybe even improve, he could be a possible winner.

I'm less convinced about Flintshire but his last run might have been down to softer ground. His run at Epsom might have been just a sighter. I'd rather have him than the likes of Telescope.
 
oh yes..i forgot Flintshire..another 120 horse

thats a very competitive line up..winner will be rated above 125

not seeing its a handicap at all..well not any i've watched in this country anyway
 
EC1 said:
i'm not seeing its a poor race tbh..potentially 5 horses capable of above 120..some mid 120's
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I didn't use the word 'poor'. I said it was a long way off a proper G1 (ie a number of 126+ candidates). It looks competitive but to me that's because we have G2 horses in with a chance of a prize they shouldn't normally get a sniff at.
 
The average OHR for any G1 isn't as high as you expect though DO...i ain't working it out but in the past i did do it for speed pars..it worked out roughly at averages of 123 for a G1 .... 119 for a G2...115 for a G3

anything above those levels are above average for Grade imo

so ratings wise this is an average ..just above in fact G1..before its run. but with there being 6 horses 120+ then it can be looked at as very competitive and well up to G1 standard..imo

you talking...sooper dooper G1's DO...there are not many of those in reality...and they are above average..not expected levels what you are talking about..imo
 
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